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Martin654,
You seem something of a sage on the CS markets - would you be interested in joining a private MSN discussion group tonight at 8?. Drop me a mail on rikersoft@gmail.com if so. |
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Well,... i specialised in the CS HT/FT indeed,.... but currently i cant contribute anything useful :)..... my methods of assessing wich scoreline in what market to lay are stats based and no rocketsience.
My newest trick showed some potential but "field testing" today revealed that the liabilty level is still slightly to high in case events go against oneself,..... i have an idea to hammer out this issue though. risk levels per bet should be managable then.... this needs more testing,... also the staking levels need to be investigated further,... till the point where everything fits in the picture...... today i obviously overstaked in one game which gave me some valuable input. So you see i have a lot of finetunig to do ahead..... But thanks for the invitation anyways. ;) |
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Just to let you know I broke my BetFair record yesterday. I was monitoring BetFair for 10 hours non stop and used my methods on 8 consecutive footie matches. It was very tyreing but very prophetable.
NOW- MOVE ALONG THEIR IS NOTHING TO SEE HEAR. Let's leave this thread drop of the bottom of the forum! |
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Well at least i am sure now that we surely doquite the opposite of each other,..... because my day yesterday was **e,...... i ended up with 8.20 Euro Overal Net Profit which hardly justifies the effort of following 4 Football matches,...... i think it was that one game where i utilized the wrong staking that prevented me from getting out with a decent margin...... well today are some games to do..... so its ok .... :)
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prophets prophets prophets
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You wouldnt let it lie!
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I don't think it will ever be let lie until we all know secrets to making masive prophets! Bet 3 currently in play on villa.
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Good luck with that. The Villa game was eliminated from both my methods!
My final match of the day is Strasbourg/Lens! |
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Was bet 3 placed on Lens Slice?
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Hmm today my new method performed awful...... but i am not sure if a 0-3 game in the last 10 minutes,..... and one 0:0 could be called an optimal test environment........ i guess i am back to my old school stuff for a while,... at least that produces money,..... :)
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Hmm i am through with my analysis,.... and i guess i give some small modifications one more try tomorrow,.... but this time on paper :).... safety first......
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3-0 to the FAVOURITE is always a risk!
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Any system has to be independent of outcomes.
It is generally quite difficult to make an overround book on an exchange so you have to build in something that responds to the changes in the market either over time or because of a change in the score. Using an old example. Lay the draw, with a hedge bet on 0-0. If there's a goal, bet the draw. There's a good reason why it doesn't work. It still depends on outcomes despite being capable of refinement. A system has to be independent of emotion. If it is 'your team' then that may effect your decision. "Every pound you bet on a horse adds a pound to the weight it carries." Who said that? Well it was me actually. Some in play events have the 'potential' for making a profit but it will always be at the margins with a few % edge. Lots of punters are looking for ways on making £200 from ninepence. Sometimes you have to accept ninepence as the return on your £200. So long as you always make more than 0. The other problem is that you have to be able to do the maths. This is not trivial stuff either. |
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I hope yesterdays "brain storm" went well Cartway.
Today is a well deserved day off for me as I have to fulfill a "contract" just outside town. Only had 3 games yesterday, and I am only missing the one game that looks like qualifying for my methods this evening. Good luck all. AND NOW ISN'T IT TIME YOU ALL ALOUD THIS THREAD TO DROP OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE FORUM. |
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it was falling quite nicely till you topped it....i think you are secretly chuffed with this thread :)
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Mr Mine-you are like some others wot knead to read this thread more carerfully. I didnt top it, Whelk did.
Good luck to all of you with your gumboiling today. Over and out! |
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Hello Slicer,
I'm not going to ask any questions about the strategy you're using (I also have a very profitable "system" involving the correct score markets and I would never let anyone know how it works!), but I was just wondering if you ever have any trouble getting your 3rd bet matched on the "smaller" matches? Do you always use the same stakes or do you adjust your initial stakes based on the overall match liquidity in order to ensure that your 3rd bet will get matched without too many problems? Thx in advance if you can answer !! Sly |
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Thanks for the felicitations Dr, the brainstorming is proceeding well, if painfully for those of us with small brains!.
There are some big questions we need to answer so are working on those in the knowledge that the answers won't be forthcoming from your good self, alas. We are currently engaged with the Second bet which appears to be more than just back 0-0 in the FT market. Unfortunately it's something of a duck and egg situation...without knowing the structure of Bet 2 it's seriously tough to work out Bet 3 (which operates in the context of Bet 2). Equally, without knowledge of Bet 3's purpose it's not easy to deduce Bet 2 or it's adjustment. But we press on steadfastly but are always open to wise suggestions or addiitonal steerage about the bet. As for the thread...it does seem to still be attracting some interest so I guess will continue a while yet. Indeed, can there be a needier thread than contemplation of an unbeatable bet!!. |
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The reason this thread persists is because it is a puzzle to be solved (or some manure for the rhubarb). Also, I haven't finished my book yet.
I don't particulary want slicer's method because that would remove the fun of finding a method and probably disappear the method too. The reason I mentioned the lay the draw, hedge 0-0, bet the draw system is because it is clearly something like that, but which doesn't depend on the favourite scoring first and no two goals in quick succession leaving you needing an outcome. The clue is in the dynamics, in the flow. That may or may not be how slicer works and the reason to do your own thing. I suggest you go back to Thorp's counting method and his mathematical understanding that the dynamics of play changed the odds. The other problem many punters will have is in 'reverting to outcome', thinking "surely Chelsea must/mustn't score again", because that £5 you can possibly have if it all works out looks more attractive than that certain 81p if you take it now. (I calculate in peanuts. Us monkeys prefer realism.) I understand how to solve these problems. I have yet to work out what the actual question is. |
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slicer: is it one of the following matches for today on which you would have bet?
- (Marseille v PSV) - Roma v Chelsea |
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Good Dr. Isn't Mumbai actually a city not a town?
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Seeing as its question time for the Doctor...
I'd like to ask... Can you confirm one of the bets involves the 0-0 scoreline or is it actually the "draw" |
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:)
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Having lost patience with this thread's unwillingness to disappear, the good Dr has, I think, done a bunk!.
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I had an importsnt "contract" to fulfil yesterday as previously posted. Had to recover from my efforts so slept all afternoon today. Am now about to monitor the 4 games wot ko at 7.45 UK time for both my methods.
I hope this clarifies the matter. btw- NO MORE CLUES! |
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btw this thread had almost dropped off
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It almost did till Smiley Duchy Schwarz revived it!
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please, send no flowers
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Too late- Macdougalls flower on its weigh!
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which games you on slicer master
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Only one- Real Madrid/ Juve!
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bet 3 placed yet?
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If it was necessary, it would have bean plaiced!
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but as juv scored first it wasn't.
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That may be the case, on the other hand it may not!
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I LUV PROPHETS
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hey guys good to see the thread is still going strong. been so busy at work aint been on since the weekend. we got any closer to cracking it yet.
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Folks, there will be another meeting of the discussion group on MSN tonight (Thursday) at 8pm UK time. Hope to see everyone there.
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how do i fnd it?
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Goose ....send me an e-mail with an MNS address to rikersoft@gmail.com.
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