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Were it that simple ...
There is a reason that it is hard to spot because you would never deliberately do what you have to do - until now. |
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The unders overs idea is not bad,.... but i can see it losing when the Scoreline is gets 2 - 0 late in the game and the odds on No Goal have droped to low to cover the combined liabilty from the Over / Under...... but i am not that much profitient with the Next goal market,...... if the Odds stay high long enough there should be a nice time window for Profit till the decision to bug out has to be made....
Good work basicaly. The CS Trade seems interesting to.... but the 1-1 is pretty short as another poster allready mentioned.... but still worth investigating. |
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Am sure slicer told us that the first bet was lay 0-0 halftime score?
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He did - the ideas above aren't his bet..though Whelk may have an idea. Good thinking though and nice to see some alternative ideas on the subject of unbeatable bets.
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Still havn,t got round to it yet although I read the E2008 thread.
Any systems and thoughts are allways worth a read,even if you don,t agree with them It gives you a different way of thinking that may be useful to you. It,s the one reason that I,ll never** ,em off. |
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s l a g censored????? lol
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0-0 ht hmm.I thought his was Back bets not lays?Hows your system going Martin?
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Give it a rest now ffs
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You could just ignore it ...
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@whelk: did you only look at the cs markets?
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No. The solutions I have found are in several places and across markets.
They are also probably the opposite of what you think you are looking for. That is an important observation. I just keep testing for now and I suggest that you do the same before committing a lot of money. |
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looking at worst case if odds dont match but you would bet nevertheless: would you have a loss or would you be able to get out +/- 0?
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It took me a while to realise that having one market that was uniformly red ...
...nuff said ... |
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Folks, due to late breaking stuff I'm NOT able to host a get together of the discussion group tonight so will instead aim for next Thursday 18th for those who are interested.
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May I take this opportunity to wish Slicer and everyone else a very merry christmas and a profitable new year. ;-)
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so 1st bet is lay 0-0 halftime, 2nd bet is back 0-0 FT and adjust if 0-0 at halftime. What is the 3rd bet please just so we can clear this up ?
Not many people gonna be arsed with making 8% per match so i think your "grail" is safe even in the public domain |
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FunBob- you are a very norty boy!
Your felicitations are reciprocated! |
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Bet 1 and bet 2 before KO. If bet 1 wins you have to redistribute what you have won and the stake from bet 2. This will leave you with a profit overall and one all red market.
If bet 1 loses then bet 2 can't lose. That's it. |
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lay 0-0 half time, back 0-0 full time. If 0-0 at half time, stick a sum on 1+ goal, which will have drifted sufficiently for you to make a small profit - no?
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so in an evenly matched game what would one goal or more price be at half time if still 0-0? 1.35?
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One goal moves from about 1.1 to 1.35. But your HT 0-0 bet will have lost and the 1 goal bet might lose too.
The drawing board is over there ----------- |
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yeah but that means your 0-0 90 minute bet would be successfull
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that's the missing variable - if anyone has data on this, it would be much appreciated. I would imagine it would be at least 1.25... Ive run the idea through the spurs/moscow matched tonight... hardly an even match, but useful for comparison. I have guessed at 1.25 as the half time minimum for 1+ goal price.
£10 stakes 0-0 full = £10 @ 13.5 back - £125 profit £10 liability 0-0 half = £11 @ 3.25 lay £24.75 liability, £11 profit 1+ half time = 1.25? If goal scored in 1st half - £1 (10%) profit - no more bets If no goal scored in 1st half - lost £24.75 from half time lay, recoup by backing 1+ goals £100 at 1.25(?) therefore: If goal scored in 2nd half - £0.25p (2.5%) profit If no goal scored in 2nd half - £0.25 (2.5%) profit On most occasions (i.e. when a 1st half goal is scored), you would be looking at a 10% return. Failing that, you are looking at at least getting your money back... perhaps a small profit if the 1+ goal odds are larger. Alternatively, one could just lay off the full time 0-0 if it is still 0-0 at half time... maybe that is the 'third bet'? |
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If there is a goal after HT in your example, then you have already lost the £24.75 HT lay then you also lose the £10 stake on FT 0-0
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Plus commission is a killer
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The one goal start odds range from 1.04 to 1.12. At half time they range from 1.2 to 1.4.
I have a set of screen captures for the markets. |
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yeah steve but you still have 70/80 pounds to play with from your 0-0 90 minute bet
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forget that bit steve i misread your post
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D'oh - you are right... I still rekon there is something in this. The idea being based around profitting a small amount if a goal is scored in the first half, and breaking even on all other outcomes...
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paul thats the formula im toying with.... 0-0 back....half time 0-0 lay and if 0-0 at half time lay 0-0 at vabout 4.25 to either break even or make a small profit...commission obviously comes into the equation
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A lot of people have tried the 0-0 ht lay + 0-0 full time back - with a view to trade the ft back at ht and reduce losses. But there seems to be a 15 minute period 45 - 60 mins where this isn't possible to do and make a profit. Waiting for the odds to become favourable is risky.
In slicers method - a third bet, or sequence of bets, (which may include laying off the ft 0-0 back bet) is placed at ht, if still 0-0. This third sequence apparently recovers losses and gives a 8% - 12% profit in most if not all games - whatever the result. I can't find a method which guarantees a profit - I can find ways to make a profit which leaves a large liability on a statistically, most unlikely event and so could a lot of you - but that's not really a holy grail. Nice to see some more interest in this - keep it up and keep posting! |
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I'm lloking into this to and the 0-0 is not it unless you back it in play
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Think about what I said:
Bet 1 and bet 2 before KO. If bet 1 wins you have to redistribute what you have won and the stake from bet 2. This will leave you with a profit overall and one all red market. If bet 1 loses then bet 2 can't lose. That's it. It's about the shape of the curves. |
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I am thinking whelk. But at this moment- after re-reading the thread - I'm wondering if I should buy you books for my two boys - and if I should ask you to autograph them first - just in case your the next J.K.Rowling.
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They say you are more likely to win the Lottery than make it with a best seller, but a book is probably more pleasing than a lottery ticket. I'm happy to sign them though.
There is more than one solution to this problem. What I'm suggesting is that it isn't bet 1 that makes your money but the one that requires you to hedge if it wins. Assume you've won £50 on bet 1 and stand to lose rather more on bet 2 but it seems you can't hedge it because the odds have changed. No matter. You bet so that you lose £45 whatever the outcome on the bet 2 market. That market is now all red - not something you would normally aim for - but it guarantees you an overall £5 win. You bet to spread the bet 2 loss. Does that make sense now? |
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Lay 0-0 FT? Back 0-0 HT? If 0-0 at HT you win your back and red out, would that be poss?
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Red out your FT 0-0 i mean.
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Oh dear- looks like some of you are going to get into trouble if you actually carry out what you are saying!
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Must be getting close eh son ;)
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Mr 3eve-if you do wot you posted just above- youve cracked it!
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