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26 Jan 10
07:07
Joined:
Date Joined:
09 Jul 09
Guys,
I understand that the SR for the first 3 favs combined is circa 65%.
According to a table, that I have seen, the theoretical longest run of outs is 7
(I don't understand how this is calculated)!
What I am trying to work out is what would be the theoretical longest run of wins!
I understand that the SR for the first 3 favs combined is circa 65%.
According to a table, that I have seen, the theoretical longest run of outs is 7
(I don't understand how this is calculated)!
What I am trying to work out is what would be the theoretical longest run of wins!
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I wouldnt even go there...
The chances of the front3 in the betting winning a race is not 65%, it is the the sum of the chances of those 3 particular horses.
The Betfair SP market is very efficient, so you could reasonably take the prices to reflect the theoretical chance.
Thereby the chances of a front3 horse winning in the 8 races of the last flat meeting last year at Doncaster were ..
31.4 55.1 66.4 35.8 56.2 54.0 31.2 34.0
If you have a strategy assuming you have a 65% chance you will definitely come unstuck at some stage. You may go through the card at Newton Abbot in the summer first, but it will definitely happen.
The chances of the front3 in the betting winning a race is not 65%, it is the the sum of the chances of those 3 particular horses.
The Betfair SP market is very efficient, so you could reasonably take the prices to reflect the theoretical chance.
Thereby the chances of a front3 horse winning in the 8 races of the last flat meeting last year at Doncaster were ..
31.4 55.1 66.4 35.8 56.2 54.0 31.2 34.0
If you have a strategy assuming you have a 65% chance you will definitely come unstuck at some stage. You may go through the card at Newton Abbot in the summer first, but it will definitely happen.
Thanks for that.
Just to qualify.....
I am not , for a second, contemplating the backing of all of the 1st 3 favourites!
On the contrary, my approach is far more lateral, and advanced, than anything so simplistic,
and I am looking at things from a layers point of view!
Just wondering how the formulae, that I mentioned before, were calculated.
Cheers...........
Just to qualify.....
I am not , for a second, contemplating the backing of all of the 1st 3 favourites!
On the contrary, my approach is far more lateral, and advanced, than anything so simplistic,
and I am looking at things from a layers point of view!
Just wondering how the formulae, that I mentioned before, were calculated.
Cheers...........
Didnt quite get what you meant by maximum theoretical sequence, There is no maximum, the chances of 7 successive outs would only be 1 in 1,600 sequences of 7 .. calculated by .35 x .35 x.35 etc
The chances of it happening is .65 so the chance of it not happening is .35
The chances of 10 in a row is about once in every hundred sequences
i.e. .65 x .65 x .65
The chances of it happening is .65 so the chance of it not happening is .35
The chances of 10 in a row is about once in every hundred sequences
i.e. .65 x .65 x .65
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