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General Betting
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26 Jan 10
08:07
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Date Joined:
09 Jul 09
Guys,
I understand that the SR for the first 3 favs combined is circa 65%.
According to a table, that I have seen, the theoretical longest run of outs is 7
(I don't understand how this is calculated)!
What I am trying to work out is what would be the theoretical longest run of wins!
I understand that the SR for the first 3 favs combined is circa 65%.
According to a table, that I have seen, the theoretical longest run of outs is 7
(I don't understand how this is calculated)!
What I am trying to work out is what would be the theoretical longest run of wins!
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I wouldnt even go there...
The chances of the front3 in the betting winning a race is not 65%, it is the the sum of the chances of those 3 particular horses. The Betfair SP market is very efficient, so you could reasonably take the prices to reflect the theoretical chance. Thereby the chances of a front3 horse winning in the 8 races of the last flat meeting last year at Doncaster were .. 31.4 55.1 66.4 35.8 56.2 54.0 31.2 34.0 If you have a strategy assuming you have a 65% chance you will definitely come unstuck at some stage. You may go through the card at Newton Abbot in the summer first, but it will definitely happen. |
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blind alley
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Thanks for that.
Just to qualify..... I am not , for a second, contemplating the backing of all of the 1st 3 favourites! On the contrary, my approach is far more lateral, and advanced, than anything so simplistic, and I am looking at things from a layers point of view! Just wondering how the formulae, that I mentioned before, were calculated. Cheers........... |
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np
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Didnt quite get what you meant by maximum theoretical sequence, There is no maximum, the chances of 7 successive outs would only be 1 in 1,600 sequences of 7 .. calculated by .35 x .35 x.35 etc
The chances of it happening is .65 so the chance of it not happening is .35 The chances of 10 in a row is about once in every hundred sequences i.e. .65 x .65 x .65 |
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(etc 10 times)
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