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I think that sums it up very well grendel
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Shapeshifter i see what you mean but you have to bet big to win big sometimes. Over conservatism is a strategy that will also never see you fulfill the profits you can potentially make
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I do throttle up (and down) based on my short-term gains.
Monday, great day and could do no wrong. So that night on Man City game, went to the table with half of what I wager and looked for the play. Even when Man City drifted before the start (1.6 or so), still felt the return wasn't worth it so dug deeper and found that all but one of the games they had won at home had been a Man City / Man City result in HT/FT. So took the 6/4 on offer. Thus researched a bit more. Bet 50% of what I normally would have but landed a decent return. I then took part of that into my nightly NHL which didn't oblige but still went into Tuesday with part of Man City on top of Monday. Lumping on: I'm a bit more of a steady gains player. Yes, I will ramp it up occassionally but overall I prefer to look at my weekly return rather than "the moment" |
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I still find this "chasing" baffling.
You have certain methods that you have reason to believe are winning long-term. You have a bad day. So you start placing bets that you wouldn't normally do. Why would you expect these bets to win? They are not based on your known winning methods, so there is no reason at all to believe that they will be winning bets. If you behave like a mug punter, surely you should expect to lose like a mug punter? |
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Failure to stick religiously to a preconceived plan on selections and money management.
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Reacting to WINNING bets . I can take the losses providing I can justify the bets. Its the handling of a winning run that does me in, the 'fiding' of unneccessary bets, or indeed overstaking because I am a few grand in front.
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my mrs changing channel
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What would happen if everybody suddenly became disciplined and only did the bets that they had originally intented to do and never did silly bets, would everybody on Betfair become a winner? surelly that would be mathematically impossible because the only money which is avaible on the exchange is from the people who use Betfair. It is not possible for every person to be successfull on the exchange, dont forget Betfair take out a significant proportion of the money invested in the form of commission.
If everybody became more disciplined their would still be winners and losers in my opinion but it would become more difficullt to be a successfull as the exchange became more efficient, though I wouldn't mind guessing it would still be the same people who are winners today who would be profitable in a newer tighter betfair setup. The study of what divides a winner and a loser on here seems at the moment to be more down to the personality of the individual choosing to bet rather than the particular activity he engages on to bet on. I wonder if many of the people who win on here are successfull in other aspects of their lives maybe its a self fullfilling prophecy, if in most aspects of your life your a winner you just expect to win. Maybe most punters on here come on here in reality expecting to lose and so thats just what they do. |