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Mr. Sandown, as stated previously, respectfully 82 is far, far too low.
I keep records of all lowest in-running matched prices - over 3,000 for flat tracks alone. One example for you: For one flat track for 80 races, there have been 4 1.01's matched that lost. For another flat track for 104 races, there have been none matched at 1.01 that subsequently llost. |
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Roger Oasis
You're right about the sample size, of course. Can you confirm or disprove that OVERALL my general conclusions are correct. i.e taking all courses, what is the return for 1.01 actual against expected? |
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3.0 = 33% of winning. Or 164 losers against 82 winners
Yes obviously but I am saying that would only make sense if every one of those winners touched 3.0, even those which started below 3.0, if you're saying they did then fair enough. |
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Bacon
No I'm not saying that. Of course horses can start short and never get bigger, providing they go on to win. Nevertheless, even if they were never offered at a given price bigger than their SP they must still be included in the totals of winners and used as a base to compare with the losers at any given price.It is an assumption that if offered at a BIGGER price than reached that the price would have been matched but without that assumption one would only be looking at horses which started at longer odds than achieved which would represent only (half) of the sample.. |
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Nevertheless, even if they were never offered at a given price bigger than their SP they must still be included in the totals of winners and used as a base to compare with the losers at any given price
Nonsene Sandown, so are you saying that if a horse started odds on 1.1 fav and went on to win easily that you would have expected 2 other losers to trade at 3.0 or lower otherwise people aren't getting fair value? That doesn't make any sense at all. All you need to do is sum every horse that touched 3.0 and then look to see how many of those went on to win, that will give you a ratio for expected losers to winners for each price. However your sample needs to be a lot lot bigger than 82 races! |
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Sandown 10 Jun 14:02
Roger Oasis You're right about the sample size, of course. Can you confirm or disprove that OVERALL my general conclusions are correct. i.e taking all courses, what is the return for 1.01 actual against expected? Last time I checked you are correct but all my records are by course so will have to re-sort to be sure....and there's 3 race meetings on.... Also there's always over £ 10,000 waiting at 1.01 on every horse so there's a clue... Anyway, will let you know later. |
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does this mean it is finished or not ?
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bacon
No, in that instance with a 1.1 chance I would expect that the other 2 runners would go off at 22 or 11.0 together. In practice, neither would touch 2.0 unless the 1.1 shot did as well, which can happen.In any case, it is quite likely (evens) that one of them would touch 11. and a 7.4 chance that 3.0 would be reached. |
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Koo
It will be when all the little fish recognize that a killer shark like you at the top of the IR food chain is devouring everyone. Of course, its a pretty big ocean and even the smaller sharks are growing fat.One day they might be devoured by you. And of course you might get eaten by the unfair competition. But, as with BF in general, you need a plentiful supply of new fish. Personally,I'll let you get on with it, but I would still be grateful if you could take my 1.01 and 1.02 hedging lays as Roger O has confirmed. |
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Good racereaders will carry on winning. FFS how can they not?
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Avon Barksdale 10 Jun 14:42
Good racereaders will carry on winning. FFS how can they not? Only if others are prepared to goon losing? Incidently, your forum name is because you what, admire the character? |
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Why would you start another scaremongering thread like this? I dont understand your motivation. People who understand horseracing and are good racereaders with plenty of experience will win IR.
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Avon Barksdale 10 Jun 14:48
Why would you start another scaremongering thread like this? I dont understand your motivation. People who understand horseracing and are good racereaders with plenty of experience will win IR. Its a negative sum game Avon once you take commission into account.For every winner there's a loser? Why is pointing that out scaremongering? |
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Why would we run out of losers? FOBTs dont seem to run out of losers. People are betting on cartoon racing every day. Plenty of losers to go round there it seems.
Yes, I do admire the character, why not. |
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Avon
It's a terrific series with excellent acting, great plots and superb direction. But the character? He's a pyschotic murdering criminal with no plusses and only minuses and represents everything that is bad about the human race. Apart from that, you can call yourself Adolf Hitler for all that it matters on here. |
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Avon
Your sentiments re. mug punters would be those of the character, would they not? |
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Disagree with the psychotic bit. Plusses include giving lots of money to the underpriviliged kids@ the boxing club? I thought the whole point of the wire is to show the politicians and people in power were no better than the likes of Avon?
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Yes, lets ban 'mug punters' from betfair for their own good.
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Takes $50,000 a DAY from crackheads and gives $15,000 to a club. Bit short on the balance sheet there.
As for attitudes towards losers you can take money off people without laughing in their faces. Respect for the opponent and all that.But yes, there are a lot of people who might just as well give it to you as opposed to the FOTB's so I've no problem with that. |
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No one is laughing at anyone as far as im aware. Every IR player I know says its much more difficult these days. The only exception perhaps raw feed players who can hardly fail to win.
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Avon
Yep, getting more difficult by the day is what I fear happens as the market becomes more and more competitive and more efficient. Big arbers tell me that the arbs are not as frequent, that it is harder to get on. Big opinion players like Feck say how difficult it is to get money on unkess its a loser. The bot wars can only get worse pushing down the margins. The little fish are cottoning on that they have no chance. Personally, as a horseracing backer I have found that the past 10 years have been nothing like as good as the previous 10 years. Bookmakers are making it pay only through FOBT's or big mug clients. patrick veitch seems to make it pay so I guess that its still possible.Cest la vie! |
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I only really know about IR but imo some people made a lot of money in the past without actually being that good. Thats now changed (again apart from your raw feed **s) and the best players are winning which is what we want really? Good luck, anyway.
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You too
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٩(
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Sandown - sorry, possibly I was thinking of another market but according to my records for 2,960 UK flat only races - 27 horses were traded at 1.01 and lost.
But as I said earlier, one then has to delve deeper into which course and then further into race type. I notice some very famous courses not appearing on the list while others appear 3 or 4 times. Incidentally, you will probably know there was a 1.01 at Beverley today - the first 1.01 anywhere on any surface (again according to my records) since Navan about 25 meetings ago, so perhaps the bubble has bust.... |
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Roger
OK the expecatation would be 29-30 winners so a little under par.I calculate significance at about +/- 2 at 95% and +/- 3 at 99% confidence.Looks spot on . |
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All we need now is for someone to produce that kind of evidence for bigger prices. Anyone out there willing to provide it?
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in running is a science .
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I did something similar with betfairs in running data a while back and it's much the same as yours Sandown, these were from betfairs own in running data files blind laying - obviously these don't take in account a lot of the lower priced lays you'd put in wouldn't even be matched unless you were at the front of the queue so the figures would actually be even worse
Lay price 1.01 Races won 4801 Races lost 79 Number of races 4880 PnL = 30.99 Lay price 1.02 Races won 4875 Races lost 117 Number of races 4992 PnL = 19.50 Lay price 1.03 Races won 4928 Races lost 176 Number of races 5104 PnL = 28.16 Lay price 1.04 Races won 4940 Races lost 207 Number of races 5147 PnL = 9.40 Lay price 1.05 Races won 4961 Races lost 256 Number of races 5217 PnL = 7.95 Lay price 1.06 Races won 4980 Races lost 289 Number of races 5269 PnL = -9.80 Lay price 1.07 Races won 4982 Races lost 308 Number of races 5290 PnL = -40.74 Lay price 1.08 Races won 4984 Races lost 324 Number of races 5308 PnL = -74.72 Lay price 1.09 Races won 4984 Races lost 334 Number of races 5318 PnL = -114.56 Lay price 1.1 Races won 5002 Races lost 421 Number of races 5423 PnL = -79.20 Lay price 1.11 Races won 5014 Races lost 503 Number of races 5517 PnL = -48.54 Lay price 1.12 Races won 5018 Races lost 553 Number of races 5571 PnL = -49.16 Lay price 1.13 Races won 5027 Races lost 610 Number of races 5637 PnL = -43.51 Lay price 1.14 Races won 5029 Races lost 644 Number of races 5673 PnL = -60.06 Lay price 1.15 Races won 5035 Races lost 673 Number of races 5708 PnL = -82.25 Lay price 1.16 Races won 5037 Races lost 694 Number of races 5731 PnL = -111.92 Lay price 1.17 Races won 5038 Races lost 707 Number of races 5745 PnL = -149.46 Lay price 1.18 Races won 5038 Races lost 718 Number of races 5756 PnL = -188.84 Lay price 1.19 Races won 5038 Races lost 723 Number of races 5761 PnL = -234.22 Lay price 1.2 Races won 5045 Races lost 824 Number of races 5869 PnL = -185.00 Lay price 1.21 Races won 5049 Races lost 905 Number of races 5954 PnL = -155.29 Lay price 1.22 Races won 5049 Races lost 965 Number of races 6014 PnL = -145.78 Lay price 1.23 Races won 5049 Races lost 985 Number of races 6034 PnL = -176.27 Lay price 1.24 Races won 5049 Races lost 1002 Number of races 6051 PnL = -209.76 Lay price 1.25 Races won 5055 Races lost 1128 Number of races 6183 PnL = -135.75 Lay price 1.26 Races won 5057 Races lost 1144 Number of races 6201 PnL = -170.82 Lay price 1.27 Races won 5057 Races lost 1150 Number of races 6207 PnL = -215.39 Lay price 1.28 Races won 5057 Races lost 1160 Number of races 6217 PnL = -255.96 Lay price 1.29 Races won 5058 Races lost 1171 Number of races 6229 PnL = -295.82 Lay price 1.3 Races won 5062 Races lost 1317 Number of races 6379 PnL = -201.60 Lay price 1.31 Races won 5062 Races lost 1384 Number of races 6446 PnL = -185.22 Lay price 1.32 Races won 5062 Races lost 1406 Number of races 6468 PnL = -213.84 Lay price 1.33 Races won 5063 Races lost 1496 Number of races 6559 PnL = -174.79 Lay price 1.34 Races won 5063 Races lost 1530 Number of races 6593 PnL = -191.42 Lay price 1.35 Races won 5066 Races lost 1640 Number of races 6706 PnL = -133.10 Lay price 1.36 Races won 5069 Races lost 1673 Number of races 6742 PnL = -151.84 Lay price 1.37 Races won 5069 Races lost 1700 Number of races 6769 PnL = -175.53 Lay price 1.38 Races won 5069 Races lost 1719 Number of races 6788 PnL = -207.22 Lay price 1.39 Races won 5069 Races lost 1724 Number of races 6793 PnL = -252.91 Lay price 1.4 Races won 5073 Races lost 1864 Number of races 6937 PnL = -165.20 Lay price 1.41 Races won 5073 Races lost 1898 Number of races 6971 PnL = -181.93 Lay price 1.42 Races won 5074 Races lost 1918 Number of races 6992 PnL = -213.08 Lay price 1.43 Races won 5074 Races lost 1923 Number of races 6997 PnL = -258.82 Lay price 1.44 Races won 5075 Races lost 1944 Number of races 7019 PnL = -289.00 Lay price 1.45 Races won 5075 Races lost 1957 Number of races 7032 PnL = -326.75 Lay price 1.46 Races won 5075 Races lost 1964 Number of races 7039 PnL = -370.50 Lay price 1.47 Races won 5075 Races lost 1970 Number of races 7045 PnL = -415.25 Lay price 1.48 Races won 5075 Races lost 1983 Number of races 7058 PnL = -453.00 Lay price 1.49 Races won 5075 Races lost 1991 Number of races 7066 PnL = -495.75 Lay price 1.5 Races won 5077 Races lost 2211 Number of races 7288 PnL = -327.50 Lay price 1.51 Races won 5077 Races lost 2319 Number of races 7396 PnL = -270.27 Lay price 1.52 Races won 5078 Races lost 2412 Number of races 7490 PnL = -228.56 Lay price 1.53 Races won 5078 Races lost 2457 Number of races 7535 PnL = -234.34 Lay price 1.54 Races won 5078 Races lost 2473 Number of races 7551 PnL = -269.12 Lay price 1.55 Races won 5078 Races lost 2534 Number of races 7612 PnL = -258.90 Lay price 1.56 Races won 5078 Races lost 2566 Number of races 7644 PnL = -277.68 Lay price 1.57 Races won 5078 Races lost 2580 Number of races 7658 PnL = -314.46 Lay price 1.58 Races won 5078 Races lost 2586 Number of races 7664 PnL = -359.24 Lay price 1.59 Races won 5078 Races lost 2590 Number of races 7668 PnL = -406.02 Lay price 1.6 Races won 5080 Races lost 2753 Number of races 7833 PnL = -295.00 Lay price 1.61 Races won 5080 Races lost 2821 Number of races 7901 PnL = -277.80 Lay price 1.62 Races won 5080 Races lost 2865 Number of races 7945 PnL = -284.60 Lay price 1.63 Races won 5080 Races lost 2899 Number of races 7979 PnL = -301.40 Lay price 1.64 Races won 5080 Races lost 2905 Number of races 7985 PnL = -346.20 Lay price 1.65 Races won 5080 Races lost 2924 Number of races 8004 PnL = -378.00 Lay price 1.66 Races won 5080 Races lost 2971 Number of races 8051 PnL = -381.80 Lay price 1.67 Races won 5080 Races lost 2990 Number of races 8070 PnL = -413.60 Lay price 1.68 Races won 5080 Races lost 3005 Number of races 8085 PnL = -449.40 Lay price 1.69 Races won 5080 Races lost 3013 Number of races 8093 PnL = -492.20 Lay price 1.7 Races won 5080 Races lost 3224 Number of races 8304 PnL = -332.00 Lay price 1.71 Races won 5081 Races lost 3262 Number of races 8343 PnL = -345.51 Lay price 1.72 Races won 5081 Races lost 3285 Number of races 8366 PnL = -373.32 Lay price 1.73 Races won 5081 Races lost 3293 Number of races 8374 PnL = -416.13 Lay price 1.74 Races won 5081 Races lost 3299 Number of races 8380 PnL = -460.94 Lay price 1.75 Races won 5081 Races lost 3323 Number of races 8404 PnL = -487.75 Lay price 1.76 Races won 5081 Races lost 3333 Number of races 8414 PnL = -528.56 Lay price 1.77 Races won 5081 Races lost 3341 Number of races 8422 PnL = -571.37 Lay price 1.78 Races won 5081 Races lost 3354 Number of races 8435 PnL = -609.18 Lay price 1.79 Races won 5081 Races lost 3360 Number of races 8441 PnL = -653.99 Lay price 1.8 Races won 5082 Races lost 3520 Number of races 8602 PnL = -545.60 Lay price 1.81 Races won 5082 Races lost 3570 Number of races 8652 PnL = -546.42 Lay price 1.82 Races won 5082 Races lost 3585 Number of races 8667 PnL = -582.24 Lay price 1.83 Races won 5082 Races lost 3595 Number of races 8677 PnL = -623.06 Lay price 1.84 Races won 5082 Races lost 3606 Number of races 8688 PnL = -662.88 Lay price 1.85 Races won 5082 Races lost 3608 Number of races 8690 PnL = -711.70 Lay price 1.86 Races won 5082 Races lost 3615 Number of races 8697 PnL = -755.52 Lay price 1.87 Races won 5082 Races lost 3625 Number of races 8707 PnL = -796.34 Lay price 1.88 Races won 5082 Races lost 3634 Number of races 8716 PnL = -838.16 Lay price 1.89 Races won 5082 Races lost 3654 Number of races 8736 PnL = -868.98 Lay price 1.9 Races won 5082 Races lost 3706 Number of races 8788 PnL = -867.80 Lay price 1.91 Races won 5082 Races lost 3719 Number of races 8801 PnL = -905.62 Lay price 1.92 Races won 5082 Races lost 3728 Number of races 8810 PnL = -947.44 Lay price 1.93 Races won 5082 Races lost 3732 Number of races 8814 PnL = -994.26 Lay price 1.94 Races won 5082 Races lost 3739 Number of races 8821 PnL = -1038.08 Lay price 1.95 Races won 5083 Races lost 3751 Number of races 8834 PnL = -1077.85 Lay price 1.96 Races won 5083 Races lost 3762 Number of races 8845 PnL = -1117.68 Lay price 1.97 Races won 5083 Races lost 3788 Number of races 8871 PnL = -1142.51 Lay price 1.98 Races won 5083 Races lost 3797 Number of races 8880 PnL = -1184.34 Lay price 1.99 Races won 5083 Races lost 3807 Number of races 8890 PnL = -1225.17 Lay price 2 Races won 5084 Races lost 4538 Number of races 9622 PnL = -546.00 |
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FANTASTIC WORK GUYS.....
lets get to the bottom of these edges - and who is ripping the money out of the pool Betfair shoudl be doing this work - it is criminal they are not, thier apparent lack of understanding or concern baffles me.... and one day when they wake up with no IR product but several former customer sitting on million dollar sailing yatches in the med... they might finally ask what the **** happened... to late then... |
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they shoudl also have to supply this pnl split to everyone
http://betfairdata.googlepages.com/home |
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Baby Jesus
Thank you very much for sharing that information. It again proves that there are people out there prepared to help the rest to understand what is going on. The fact that your in-depth figures support my general conclusions shows that it is possible to form a hypothesis from a small sample. Your figures, given the sample size, are significant and certainly dont disprove my view which is that the bigger the price the greater the loss for the layer, but below 1.06 there is a tiny l edge in favour of the layer. Perhaps my figures for prices up to 3.0 may be over-stated but I think that even with small sample they may be significant. So, what are we to make of it. In theory, it seems that an IR layer at 1.99/1.99/2.0 would have paid out on 15,250 winners and earned on 12,142 losers for a level stakes loss of 2955 points for a loss of 10.8% on stakes. If Im right, this loss will increase as the price increases. As for 1.01.1.02 it doesnt look like much of a profit opportunity for layers but at least the price of hedging looks at worst as no cost. Unless you are hedging at 2.0 and above, when a 11% plus cost might be acceptable especially if you are sitting on a big price, it doesnt look to me that pure laying pays at all at those prices, unless of course, you are an absolutely great race reader and knows when something isnt going to win and you have the technical edge to beat the others to the money thats there. I'd be interestedto hear from the big IR players like Koo on what they think of this. |
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The figures look wrong is my offer.
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Koo
I know from reading your thread that you both back and lay. Do you have any P&L split showing any differenace? What would you have expected the figures to show? What do you think is wrong with them? The sample size is huge and the results are statistically significant I would guess. So, what's up Doc? |
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the figures are are interesting, so thanks to baby J for posting them, but they're irrelevant to any sane real world inRunning layer's strategy is my offer
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gus
On my figures, from a sample of races I looked at, backing at last prices/sp on BF the loss would be 2.9% on stakes. That's the edge against (not too different from roulette). Depending on the average spread, the layers loss might be comparable.This loss is much the same across all prices. This doesn't appear to be the same for IR where there is an increasing edge against for layers as the price increases. Whilst it dosen't stop layers from winning, or affect your strategy in the real world, its interesting to find out the whats, whys and wherefores. |
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NB That 2.9% loss is before commission & PC
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Because the dynamics of an in running market make it significantly more difficult to correctly price up the event?
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In running is very volatile. Volatility leads to bigger errors in pricing.
The value has to be higher if you know what you are doing and can pick the big over reactions and get matched. I seen the 100 / 1 become 1.2 then win in a matter of 5 seconds - someone cleaned up on those and got massive value. Value for some but not for me - no piccies and slow connection - = doom for IR. I've done it blind for fun a few times but it is like running into the traffic blind folded hoping to not get hit ... I've been hit and it hurt |
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Under conditions x y z if I place a bet it will be matched by the magicians bot. Long term it is impossible to win if my bets are matched by the magicians bot. Should betfair reveal conditions x y and z to everybody so that they can avoid the situation?
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