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STP
Apologies, I missed your original question about obtaining a copy of "Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. G. (1997) Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market". If you want a copy I can send it to you. Just post your email. |
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pinkney9@h0tmail.c0m
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Thanks in advance
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Okay, I've sent it now. 809k
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Bet 10
Arsenal v Man Utd score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 7.68% 13.02 10.5 No bet -19.37% 0-1 9.85% 10.15 9.6 No bet -5.39% 0-2 6.32% 15.81 16.5 Value 4.34% 0-3 2.71% 36.97 42 Value 13.61% 1-0 9.85% 10.15 9.4 No bet -7.36% 1-1 12.65% 7.91 7.6 No bet -3.88% 1-2 8.12% 12.32 12.5 Value 1.44% 1-3 3.47% 28.81 29 Value 0.67% 2-0 6.32% 15.81 17.5 Value 10.66% 2-1 8.12% 12.32 12.5 Value 1.44% 2-2 5.21% 19.20 20 Value 4.15% 2-3 2.23% 44.89 40 No bet -10.90% 3-0 2.71% 36.97 42 Value 13.61% 3-1 3.47% 28.81 26 No bet -9.74% 3-2 2.23% 44.89 44 No bet -1.99% 3-3 0.95% 104.94 80 No bet -23.77% Unq 6.10% 16.39 13 No bet -20.67% Over 2.5 45.30% 2.21 2.28 Value Under 2.5 52.68% 1.90 1.77 No bet £50 dutched on ; 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-3 2-0 2-1 2-2 3-0 Returns £122 (inc stake, ex comm) |
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Bet 10 won +£68.40 (after 5% comm)
New Bank = £1339.93 p/l = +£339.93 |
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Well Done STP. Very good thread.
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Thanks, made error in bet numbers. That was actually bet 11.
P/L so far -£50 £178.11 -£50 -£50 -£50 £117.78 £135.38 -£50 £140.21 -£50 £68.40 5 bets won out of 11 = 45.45% strike rate |
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Bet 12
Preston v Sheff Utd score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 11.23% 8.91 9.8 Value 10.04% 0-1 10.41% 9.61 9.8 Value 1.97% 0-2 4.82% 20.74 19.5 No bet -5.99% 0-3 1.49% 67.15 50 No bet -25.54% 1-0 14.15% 7.07 8 Value 13.19% 1-1 13.11% 7.63 7.2 No bet -5.60% 1-2 6.07% 16.46 13.5 No bet -17.99% 1-3 1.88% 53.29 38 No bet -28.70% 2-0 8.91% 11.22 13.5 Value 20.33% 2-1 8.26% 12.11 11 No bet -9.14% 2-2 3.83% 26.13 19.5 No bet -25.37% 2-3 1.18% 84.59 55 No bet -34.98% 3-0 3.74% 26.71 36 Value 34.77% 3-1 3.47% 28.83 28 No bet -2.86% 3-2 1.61% 62.21 42 No bet -32.49% 3-3 0.50% 201.41 110 No bet -45.38% Unq 4.14% 24.16 18 No bet -25.49% Over 2.5 36.17% 2.77 2.46 No bet Under 2.5 62.63% 1.60 1.67 Value Home 40.14% 2.49 Draw 28.66% 3.49 Away 25.85% 3.87 £50 Dutch on; 0-0 1-0 0-1 2-0 3-0 Returns £116.03 (inc stake, ex comm) One to watch = Under 2.5 @ 1.67 |
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Just got this to the top as i will continuing with it very soon
last bet lost (one to watch won) summary: Bet 1. -£50 Bet 2. £178.11 Bet 3, -£50 Bet 4. -£50 Bet 5. -£50 Bet 6. £117.78 Bet 7. £135.38 Bet 8. -£50 Bet 9. £140.21 Bet 10. -£50 Bet 11. £68.40 Bet 12. -£50 Start Balance = £1000 Current Balance = £1289.88 Profit = +£289.88 Strike Rate = 41.66% |
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Very interesting thread STP - good luck with it.
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Bet 13
USA v Brazil score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 6.72% 14.88 13.5 No bet -9.27% 0-1 14.00% 7.14 7.4 Value 3.61% 0-2 14.58% 6.86 6.6 No bet -3.74% 0-3 10.13% 9.87 10.5 Value 6.35% 1-0 4.14% 24.13 22 No bet -8.82% 1-1 8.63% 11.58 11.5 No bet -0.71% 1-2 8.99% 11.12 10 No bet -10.06% 1-3 6.25% 16.01 15.5 No bet -3.19% 2-0 1.28% 78.26 70 No bet -10.55% 2-1 2.66% 37.56 36 No bet -4.16% 2-2 2.77% 36.06 38 Value 5.38% 2-3 1.93% 51.93 40 No bet -22.97% 3-0 0.26% 380.71 180 No bet -52.72% 3-1 0.55% 182.74 120 No bet -34.33% 3-2 0.57% 175.43 110 No bet -37.30% 3-3 0.40% 252.62 130 No bet -48.54% Unq 10.04% 9.96 6.4 No bet -35.73% Over 2.5 44.55% 2.24 1.99 No bet Under 2.5 49.36% 2.03 2 No bet Home 9.46% 10.57 Draw 18.52% 5.40 Away 55.88% 1.79 £50 dutch on ; 0-1 0-3 2-2 Returns £198.13 (inc stake, ex comm) |
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Interesting system! Been following this thread for a while. I've been considering laying AU since odds dropped below 7.00. And your post above has pretty much convinced me :D So if it goes breasts up, I can blame you ;)
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;-) lol. good luck
I often use the poor value prices i have calculated to decide on what to lay, has worked well for me, hopefully will pay for you too Good Luck |
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Bet 13 lost -£50
close game that one , thought the 2-2 was on. Well done to those on the unqouted |
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Bet 1. -£50
Bet 2. £178.11 Bet 3, -£50 Bet 4. -£50 Bet 5. -£50 Bet 6. £117.78 Bet 7. £135.38 Bet 8. -£50 Bet 9. £140.21 Bet 10. -£50 Bet 11. £68.40 Bet 12. -£50 Bet 13. -£50 Start Balance = £1000 Current Balance = £1239.88 Profit = +£239.88 Strike Rate = 38.46% |
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From now on i am going to trial having a saver bet on one of the other outcomes to cover the initial dutch stake (it will be a lay)
Bet 14 Lillestrom v Start - 18:35 score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 4.98% 20.09 15 No bet -25.32% (saver lay) 0-1 6.97% 14.35 14 No bet -2.42% 0-2 4.88% 20.50 22 Value 7.34% 0-3 2.28% 43.92 46 Value 4.74% 1-0 7.97% 12.55 12 No bet -4.41% 1-1 11.15% 8.97 7.8 No bet -13.01% 1-2 7.81% 12.81 12 No bet -6.32% 1-3 3.64% 27.45 29 Value 5.65% 2-0 6.37% 15.69 16.5 Value 5.15% 2-1 8.92% 11.21 10 No bet -10.78% 2-2 6.25% 16.01 15 No bet -6.32% 2-3 2.91% 34.31 34 No bet -0.91% 3-0 3.40% 29.42 32 Value 8.76% 3-1 4.76% 21.02 22 Value 4.68% 3-2 3.33% 30.02 29 No bet -3.41% 3-3 1.55% 64.33 50 No bet -22.28% Unq 9.07% 11.02 9.2 No bet -16.55% Over 2.5 53.92% 1.85 1.99 Value Under 2.5 42.32% 2.36 2 No bet Home 34.75% 2.88 Draw 23.93% 4.18 Away 28.49% 3.51 £50 dutch on: 0-2 0-3 1-3 2-0 3-0 3-1 Returns £209.22 (inc stake, ex comm) Saver Bet 1 £52.63 Lay 0-0 @ 15 (exposure = £736.82) |
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STP - How can laying 0-0 be a "saver" bet ??????????
If it finishes 0-0 you lose on BOTH strategies !!!!!!! Why not make the "saver" bet be .....when say you have reached a CS BACK score, and if another goal is scored you lose etc .....then why not LAY to protect stakes some of profit off????? GL ........Like what you are doing SO FAR ]:) :D |
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Suppose the term 'saver' is the wrong word, its a lay (generally the one with the smallest edge), a scoreline that i don't believe will happen to ensure i come out level if the dutch bet fails.
obviously if 0-0 in this case, i stand to lose a heft amount |
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Nice to see the 0-0 odds drifting from the odds = 15.00 earlier
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Just feel that you have got two strategies based on goals in this game .........and IF 0-0 happens ....it willl be very very expensive.
If you really believe there will be goals in game....why not lay DRAW in HT market at far lower level of liability.....and IF a goal is scored then means your other bets have good chance of happening , BUT you can also lay whatever team that goes ahead to eliminate liability on a DRAW being score at HT etc............. Anyway ....., based on what market "thinks" , .....0-0 is unlikely ........though markets often are wrong IMO.......especially when RELEGATION matches are being playedetc GL |
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WD on lay 0-0 STP....:D
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cheers, just need few more goals for bet (a) to come in. Bring on the goals
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:D
Maybe worth laying some of profit off on 2-0 ??????? Fair chance away team score here....... The market appears to think another goal likely by looks of it!!!! |
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Fingers crossed goes to 3-1
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:D
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I'll hold out for 3-1 lol, nothing to lose all to gain ;-)
nice to see the value bet of, over 2.5 come in @ 1.99 |
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Brave decision ...as both teams appear to be coming to life!!!!!!
When odds get lower STP .....I'd definitely lay off to ensure a profit ........say at 2.1???? |
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Didn't trade out,but didn't take a loss as the lay of 0-0 won
Bet 14a -£50 Bet 14b +£50 overall = same (no loss) Think i will look at the possibility of trading out and the maths behind it to secure a profit. May work well as the scorelines i take tend to happen at some point in match |
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Feel you were "brave" to lay 0-0 ........then not so brave on not laying 2-0 a wee bit .......as I know you had 3-0 and 3-1 covered ,,,,,,but 2-1 could well still happen ...and it did......as well as 2-2 etc.....
Laying 2-0 a wee bit ....would have secured a profit no matter what ......when got back to 3-1 .......then laying the largish profit again ...a wee bit ....would have secured even more profit in a game which could easily have gone to 2-2, and all profit chances would be gone etc. The market odds at 2-0 and 2-1 ....seemed to indicate goals ....and perhaps this is when worth going all green. Even if you do it in stages ....eg laying 25% profit off at 2.1 ....when it was 3-1.....then set another lay at 1.6 for another 25% or so etc etc....... Although you broke-even....................it is important to remember you were RISKING a substantial amount of money at start .............and breaking even is not so good really IMO........ GOALS do happen when you don't want them ....and don't happen sometimes when you do....... You did really well with the DUTCHED scores chosen......and there were TWO opportunities to lay to gain some profit.........and surely worth laying at least once when a CS is arrived at ........ All depends on whether you just let bets stand ( I remember watching kenilworth lose out OFTEN through IMO making wrong judgment calls on how games might go....meaning ...MORE GOALS....and some can leave you with a loss instead of profit.........he of course was "happy" to end up in profit .......but i am certain it would have been far more had he made better judgment calls on whether more goals likely etc ....IMO he exercised BAD judgment in most of matches by refusing to cover DRAW possibilities and also late goals.......his strategy was far more crude than your one .....you are going for value .....he was just doing same dutched scores NO MATTER what match was !!!!!) or whether you make a judgment call on how a game is going etc....or could go...... Very good thread though STP ....your still in profit ...so wd |
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STP - which 3 spread companies do you use?
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sportingindex
extrabet spreadex Use those 3, if anyone knows of more please post them, would like to use them into spreadsheet. cheers |
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DFC Can i just Ask Y u Highlight certain parts of ur posts ? lol
does it not take u too much time (not sayin in bad way) |
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cheers STP
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AC Milan v Genoa
score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 6.18% 16.17 14 No bet -13.44% 0-1 5.36% 18.66 21 Value 12.53% 0-2 2.32% 43.06 55 Value 27.72% 0-3 0.67% 149.07 180 Value 20.75% 1-0 11.85% 8.44 7.8 No bet -7.56% 1-1 10.27% 9.74 8.8 No bet -9.62% 1-2 4.45% 22.47 24 Value 6.82% 1-3 1.29% 77.77 80 Value 2.86% 2-0 11.36% 8.80 8.8 No bet -0.06% 2-1 9.84% 10.16 9.2 No bet -9.44% 2-2 4.27% 23.44 20 No bet -14.69% 2-3 1.23% 81.16 80 No bet -1.42% 3-0 7.26% 13.78 14.5 Value 5.21% 3-1 6.29% 15.90 15 No bet -5.67% 3-2 2.73% 36.70 32 No bet -12.80% 3-3 0.79% 127.03 95 No bet -25.21% Unq 9.12% 10.97 8.2 No bet -25.25% Over 2.5 47.92% 2.09 2.04 No bet Under 2.5 47.34% 2.11 1.94 No bet Home 49.32% 2.03 1.64 No Bet Draw 21.51% 4.65 4.1 No Bet Away 15.32% 6.53 6.6 Value |