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wd STP.............just one of those fast start games ....and the derby element coming into it ...makes it tough re what might happen..........
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cheers. Think I'll go back to my original plan..Dutching. Doubt the scoreline will stay the same but if it does, would have been one of my dutching selections.
Noticed all but 1 of the value bets are overs 2.5 For the sake of the original plan and because i have made a bet outside it, i am going to continue with that £50 loss and treat it as i lesson in discipline , stick to your original plan to see where it goes. I will watch with interest your idea DFC, What a game by the way New bank £978.11 |
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You are quite right to stick to your plan........a very good thread ...GL
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BTW ......I would use going all green once a sore has been hit ...if doing what i suggested earlier .....so when 1-2 was hit ...i would then lay bet etc ...
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BTW ......I would use going all green once a score has been hit ...if doing what i suggested earlier .....so when 1-2 was hit ...i would then lay bet etc ...
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Do you always trade out, I was wondering how prices may change throughout game and if i may have opportunity to green up on scorelines i have dutched
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It would all depend on how game goes.......when 1-2 early in a match ...and both teams going for it ...YUP would get out of 1 bet quickly!
If late in a match and the 1-2 hit , then odds would be very low then ...so again i would trade out ....many would not.......but see no point in losin all stakes if another goal scored late in match etc. My football betting is poor r staing generally....Ican do well on guessing how a game might go ....for say 4 games in a row ...winning on every game ...then blow all profit on one daft over staked bet ....ending up losing when have 4 out of 5 correct!!!! Worth keeping eye on TOTGA thread ....as some very good "guessing" going on there!!!! I like your idea re finding value ....but would rather use that combined with my opinion on how a game might go...like with BARCA game I thought they would either win or draw ...more likely win.....but thought it would be a low scoring match !!!! :D GL with thread.... |
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Thanks for your input , next bet coming up
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Bet 5
Villarreal v sevilla score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 5.50% 18.17 14.5 No bet -20.22% 0-1 7.52% 13.30 12.5 No bet -6.00% 0-2 5.14% 19.46 19.5 Value 0.20% 0-3 2.34% 42.72 44 Value 3.00% 1-0 8.44% 11.85 11 No bet -7.19% 1-1 11.53% 8.67 7.8 No bet -10.06% 1-2 7.88% 12.69 11.5 No bet -9.39% 1-3 3.59% 27.86 27 No bet -3.09% 2-0 6.47% 15.46 17 Value 9.96% 2-1 8.84% 11.31 10.5 No bet -7.18% 2-2 6.04% 16.55 17 Value 2.69% 2-3 2.75% 36.34 38 Value 4.57% 3-0 3.31% 30.25 34 Value 12.40% 3-1 4.52% 22.13 25 Value 12.96% 3-2 3.09% 32.39 28 No bet -13.55% 3-3 1.41% 71.10 55 No bet -22.64% Unq 8.35% 11.97 9 No bet -24.82% £50 dutching ; 0-2 0-3 2-0 2-2 2-3 3-0 3-1 Returns £173.98 (inc stake, ex comm) |
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YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS :D :D
I'd lay to protect stakes now |
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wd STP
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Bet 5 won +£117.78 (after 5% comm)
New Bank = £1095.95 P/L = +£95.95 |
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Bet 6
Reading V Birmingham score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 8.32% 12.02 11.5 No bet -4.34% 0-1 8.82% 11.34 12.5 Value 10.22% 0-2 4.67% 21.40 25 Value 16.84% 0-3 1.65% 60.56 80 Value 32.10% 1-0 11.87% 8.43 8 No bet -5.06% 1-1 12.58% 7.95 7.2 No bet -9.42% 1-2 6.67% 15.00 15.5 Value 3.35% 1-3 2.36% 42.45 44 Value 3.66% 2-0 8.47% 11.81 11.5 No bet -2.64% 2-1 8.97% 11.14 10 No bet -10.26% 2-2 4.76% 21.03 18.5 No bet -12.01% 2-3 1.68% 59.51 55 No bet -7.57% 3-0 4.03% 24.84 25 Value 0.65% 3-1 4.27% 23.43 22 No bet -6.11% 3-2 2.26% 44.21 36 No bet -18.58% 3-3 0.80% 125.13 85 No bet -32.07% Unq 5.84% 17.11 14.5 No bet -15.26% Over 2.5 43.28% 2.31 2.16 No bet Under 2.5 54.72% 1.83 1.83 Value £50 dutch on; 0-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-3 3-0 Returns £192.50 (inc stake, ex comm) |
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1 MORE BIRMINGHAM
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Bet 6 Won +£135.38 (after 5% comm)
New Bank = £1231.33 |
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-£50
£178.11 -£50 -£50 changed rules on bet £117.78 Back to original rules £135.38 |
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well done
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Bet 7
Sunderland v Everton score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 8.77% 11.40 9.2 No bet -19.28% 0-1 10.53% 9.50 8.4 No bet -11.55% 0-2 6.32% 15.83 14.5 No bet -8.40% 0-3 2.53% 39.57 40 Value 1.08% 1-0 10.82% 9.24 8.6 No bet -6.93% 1-1 12.99% 7.70 7.2 No bet -6.50% 1-2 7.79% 12.83 13 Value 1.29% 1-3 3.12% 32.09 32 No bet -0.27% 2-0 6.67% 14.98 16 Value 6.77% 2-1 8.01% 12.49 13.5 Value 8.11% 2-2 4.80% 20.81 21 Value 0.90% 2-3 1.92% 52.03 48 No bet -7.75% 3-0 2.74% 36.45 55 Value 50.89% 3-1 3.29% 30.37 36 Value 18.52% 3-2 1.98% 50.62 48 No bet -5.18% 3-3 0.79% 126.56 110 No bet -13.09% Unq 5.29% 18.89 18.5 No bet -2.07% Over 2.5 42.26% 2.50 2.16 No bet Under 2.5 56.10% 1.65 1.83 Value Dutching £50 on; 0-3 1-2 2-0 2-1 2-2 3-0 3-1 Returns £173.32 (inc stake, ex comm) |
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Could well be a draw this one......and 2-2 looks good.
wd on last winner........going well |
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2-2 now doubtful ...but draw still looks likely ...EVERTON more interested in FA Cup final ....and S just struggling to create any chances to score.
If one team scores, then might still be a draw ...1-1.....hope I'm wrong again and a couple goals go in for home team. |
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One more goal for either would be good now, consolidation goal maybe
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Fingers crossed ....I got this one well wrong ....happens ....SUNDERLAND lacked fight early on....and left it too late ...they had to go behind before effort in match ...not good enough.
Come on the goal !!!!! You should lay off IMO if a goal to protect stakes.... |
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consolation* maybe lol
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Away to cut grass ..the lawn type :D
Gl with goal Cheers the noooooooooooo |
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close....but
Bet 7 Lost -£50 New Bank = £1181.33 P/L = +£181.33 |
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Bet 8
Betis v Atletico score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 4.50% 22.20 19 No bet -14.41% 0-1 7.13% 14.02 13.5 No bet -3.71% 0-2 5.65% 17.71 18 Value 1.64% 0-3 2.98% 33.55 32 No bet -4.63% 1-0 6.83% 14.64 14 No bet -4.35% 1-1 10.82% 9.24 8 No bet -13.46% 1-2 8.56% 11.68 11 No bet -5.79% 1-3 4.52% 22.12 22 No bet -0.56% 2-0 5.18% 19.30 22 Value 13.99% 2-1 8.20% 12.19 11.5 No bet -5.66% 2-2 6.49% 15.40 16 Value 3.91% 2-3 3.43% 29.17 30 Value 2.83% 3-0 2.62% 38.18 46 Value 20.49% 3-1 4.15% 24.11 29 Value 20.28% 3-2 3.28% 30.46 30 No bet -1.50% 3-3 1.73% 57.71 55 No bet -4.69% Unq 9.74% 10.27 7.8 No bet -24.03% Over 2.5 55.71% 2.50 1.71 No bet Under 2.5 40.12% 1.65 2.38 Value £50 dutch on ; 0-2 2-0 2-2 2-3 3-0 3-1 returns £197.58 inc stake, ex comm) unders also looks good if i was a betting man |
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Really interesting thread STP; good luck!
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0-2
very nice thread you got here going ,following with interest :D |
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Can see this being a well read thread ...wd :D
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Bet 8 won +£140.20 (after 5% comm)
new bank = £1321.53 p/l = +£321.53 -£50 £178.11 -£50 -£50 changed rules on bet £117.78 Back to original rules £135.38 £140.21 Thanks for the comments, didn't expext it to go so well at start, usually start a thread and it falls flat (still time), early days. But taking a different approach and doing something i've never done before Good luck all |
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excellent, well done :D
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http://www.ylikerroin.com/file/Complete.pdf
not a bad read for those interested |
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Had a quick read ....and head hurts !!!!!! Never did like statistics though..............but accept the relevance in helping to find the value bet......
You are doing well ....but of course you are having 6/7 bets on each match......so fair chance you will hit correct results often. If you could incorporate being good at guessing which team might win, or whether a draw likely result etc ....then you could cut down number of bets on a match and get higher returns through being "good" on appraising matches etc etc Though with football betting you will get odd results frequently.....eg 2-6 BARCA v REAL MADRID....4-4 in LIVERPOOL matches etc.................. Your approach is far better than some who covered the same CSs on every match ...no matter who was playing or the circumstances etc etc......................!!!! Anyway ....away to watch racing.....gotta keep up to date on how they are going . Cheers just now. |
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Something that flashed through mind as well ....as you are also now posting the value in odds on whether a game is a value bet on OVER 2.5 goals or not.......can you not use that indicator and restrict number of bets ....eg if UNDER 2.5 is the value ...don't bacj scores over 2.5 goals ????
Just a thought........though whilst you are still in early stages of the thread, you are best to stick to testing the current strategy until you feel you are at a stage where you tweak what you do. I'll leave you in peace for a few days and watch with interest . GL |
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sorry im a bit clueless with excell how
do you put the progamme in excell.thanks |
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apologies, i finding it hard to explain how i put my excel spread sheet together as its new to me. I just searched google for some examples and changed it to my needs. Poisson can be found in the Insert-function-stat menu..sorry i can not be of more help, if i find a better way of explaining it i will post it here asap
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Bet 9
Villa v Hull score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 5.69% 17.58 14.5 No bet -17.51% 0-1 5.03% 19.90 22 Value 10.55% 0-2 2.22% 45.06 50 Value 10.97% 0-3 0.65% 153.02 180 Value 17.63% 1-0 11.28% 8.86 8.4 No bet -5.22% 1-1 9.97% 10.03 9.2 No bet -8.31% 1-2 4.40% 22.72 26 Value 14.45% 1-3 1.30% 77.15 90 Value 16.65% 2-0 11.19% 8.94 8.8 No bet -1.54% 2-1 9.88% 10.12 9 No bet -11.05% 2-2 4.37% 22.91 21 No bet -8.33% 2-3 1.29% 77.80 80 Value 2.82% 3-0 7.40% 13.52 13.5 No bet -0.14% 3-1 6.53% 15.30 14.5 No bet -5.26% 3-2 2.89% 34.65 32 No bet -7.65% 3-3 0.85% 117.68 85 No bet -27.77% Unq 9.75% 10.25 7.4 No bet -27.81% Over 2.5 49.31% 2.03 1.86 No bet Under 2.5 45.37% 2.20 2.14 No bet Dutching £50 on; 0-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-3 2-3 Returns £375.71 (inc stake, ex comm) One to watch = Laying UQ appers to be good value Some facts Aston Villa 9 games since a win 6 games since a home win Only 5 home clean sheets this season Hull 6 games since a win Only 6 clean sheets this season 4 games since an away draw Only 4 away clean sheets this season Good luck all |
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I suspect the value bets will lose on this one ........................on dutched bets above.
Just find it hard to see HULL outpacing AV sufficient number of times to win this match....and Av will be up for this. The lay on AUQ looks the bet based on the values ....GL |
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Bet 9 lost -£50
New Bank = £1271.53 p/l = +£271.53 |
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thanks for you help
good luck with the next bet |