General Betting
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I'm currently trying to read up on statistics(complete novice) and currently looking at poisson..As a learning curve for myself i am going to paper trail a method of dutching correct scores which are feel have value which have been calculated using poisson in excel, I have got the average goals scored from 3 spread betting companies and used an average of the three to calculate odds.
I will start with £1000 virtual Bank and stake £50 for each dutch.
Man Utd v Arsenal
score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 9.26% 11.89 9.6 No bet -11.15%
0-1 7.93% 13.87 16 Value 26.86%
0-2 3.40% 32.39 40 Value 35.84%
0-3 0.97% 113.43 120 Value 16.37%
1-0 14.10% 7.80 7 No bet -1.31%
1-1 12.08% 9.11 8.6 No bet 3.87%
1-2 5.17% 21.26 22 Value 13.81%
1-3 1.48% 74.46 70 No bet 3.41%
2-0 10.74% 10.24 8.6 No bet -7.65%
2-1 9.20% 11.96 10 No bet -8.01%
2-2 3.94% 27.92 23 No bet -9.37%
2-3 1.13% 97.76 80 No bet -9.99%
3-0 5.45% 20.17 18.5 No bet 0.88%
3-1 4.67% 23.55 19 No bet -11.25%
3-2 2.00% 54.98 42 No bet -15.97%
3-3 0.57% 192.53 90 No bet -48.58%
Bet 1
Dutching
0-1
0-2
0-3
1-2
£50 staked to return £353.89 (including stake, excluding commision)
I will start with £1000 virtual Bank and stake £50 for each dutch.
Man Utd v Arsenal
score odds Betfair EDGE
0-0 9.26% 11.89 9.6 No bet -11.15%
0-1 7.93% 13.87 16 Value 26.86%
0-2 3.40% 32.39 40 Value 35.84%
0-3 0.97% 113.43 120 Value 16.37%
1-0 14.10% 7.80 7 No bet -1.31%
1-1 12.08% 9.11 8.6 No bet 3.87%
1-2 5.17% 21.26 22 Value 13.81%
1-3 1.48% 74.46 70 No bet 3.41%
2-0 10.74% 10.24 8.6 No bet -7.65%
2-1 9.20% 11.96 10 No bet -8.01%
2-2 3.94% 27.92 23 No bet -9.37%
2-3 1.13% 97.76 80 No bet -9.99%
3-0 5.45% 20.17 18.5 No bet 0.88%
3-1 4.67% 23.55 19 No bet -11.25%
3-2 2.00% 54.98 42 No bet -15.97%
3-3 0.57% 192.53 90 No bet -48.58%
Bet 1
Dutching
0-1
0-2
0-3
1-2
£50 staked to return £353.89 (including stake, excluding commision)
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Replies: 114
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need to some how refomat that table so its easier to read
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good luck with this, but surely some value in a home win dutched correct score?
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The value (i what i believe to be value) has be derived from the the actual odds available compared to the odds i have prduced for those scoreline. As you can see from the table for this game the odds for the home win don't present an edge in my calculations
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STP, been down similar roads.. average goals scored ( goal supremacy ) is the critical factor , and can do your head in !!. The fish is king of correct scores, would love to know his method/theory..
Stats is the way to go but dont bury yourself into irrelevent data. The long losing streak is the enemy. Good luck with it. Will watch with interest. |
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Your problem is how you assess the relative chances of the match odds in the first place, from there you get your correct score betting. What was your match odds for this game ?
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Bet 1 = -£50
New Balance = £950 Bet 2 Werder Bremen v Hamburg score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 6.18% 16.98 14.5 No bet -10.34% 0-1 6.49% 16.17 18 Value 16.86% 0-2 3.41% 30.81 32 Value 9.07% 0-3 1.19% 88.02 85 No bet 1.40% 1-0 10.72% 9.80 9.6 No bet 2.89% 1-1 11.25% 9.33 8.4 No bet -5.47% 1-2 5.91% 17.77 18 Value 6.34% 1-3 2.07% 50.78 55 Value 13.73% 2-0 9.29% 11.30 11 No bet 2.17% 2-1 9.75% 10.77 9 No bet -12.22% 2-2 5.12% 20.51 18 No bet -7.83% 2-3 1.79% 58.59 50 No bet -10.39% 3-0 5.37% 19.57 20 Value 7.33% 3-1 5.64% 18.63 18.5 No bet 4.25% 3-2 2.96% 35.49 30 No bet -11.25% 3-3 1.04% 101.41 70 No bet -27.52% £50 dutch on: 0-1 0-2 1-2 1-3 3-0 Returns £237.48 inc stake, ex comm) |
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are you not pricing up unquoted?
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Unq 8.21% 12.78 8 No bet -34.29%
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would appear to be a good lay
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Have tried Poisson in the past by writing some very complicated programs for unders/overs.
Alas. it did not lead me anywhere. Then have asked one mathematician and he said that "Poisson is too simplistic " to gain any advantage of (in betting that is ).. |
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As i said in my original post, i'm complete novice at this and just using this as a learning curve to give me a better understanding of stats and probability..sure many have been down this route but as long as i learn something i dont mind. Thanks for your input
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Poisson can be a good aid and, as shown in the doc "Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. G. (1997) Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market", it can also lead to profits.
The model does require some modification as 0-0 and 1-1 are over-estimated by Poisson and 1-0 and 0-1 are under-estimated. |
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Thanks for that, I have a read
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How do i get a copy of "Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. G. (1997) Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market" do you have to pat for these?
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Bet 2 Won = + £178.11 (after 5% commision)
Good to see the result with the highest edge (calculated) 0-1 was the winning choice Start Balance = £1000 New Balance = £1128.11 |
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well done
where do you get your stats from ? cheers |
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Thanks. Which stats?
I use excel to calculate the odds of the correct scores using poisson distribution (very basic) |
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Bet 3
Histon v Torquay score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 8.35% 12.58 11.5 No bet -4.02% 0-1 8.07% 13.01 15 Value 21.02% 0-2 3.90% 26.93 32 Value 24.79% 0-3 1.26% 83.56 95 Value 19.37% 1-0 12.66% 8.29 7.6 No bet -3.79% 1-1 12.24% 8.58 7.4 No bet -9.45% 1-2 5.91% 17.75 18.5 Value 9.42% 1-3 1.91% 55.10 60 Value 14.35% 2-0 9.60% 10.94 10 No bet -4.00% 2-1 9.28% 11.32 9.6 No bet -10.92% 2-2 4.49% 23.41 21 No bet -5.81% 2-3 1.45% 72.65 65 No bet -6.06% 3-0 4.85% 21.64 21 No bet 1.92% 3-1 4.69% 22.38 19 No bet -10.86% 3-2 2.27% 46.31 34 No bet -22.91% 3-3 0.73% 143.71 90 No bet -34.24% Unq 6.11% 17.18 13 No bet -20.53% £50 dutch oo 0-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-3 Returns £279.07 (inc stake, ex comm) |
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sorry how do you work it out with excell thanks
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I am very much a novice at this. Search for poisson in google.
http://support.microsoft.com/kb/828130 |
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thanks
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Bet 3 lost = -£50
New balance = £1078.11 Start Bank = £1000 |
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STP
How are you calculating the "mean" parameter that must be fed into the poission calculation? If it's simply the number of goals scored divided by the number of games, then I think you'll find this a little simplistic. Ideally you need to calculate the home team's attack figure, the away team's defence figure and the home team advantage value. This should then provide a more accurate mean figure. |
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At the minute (as i'm new to this) I am using three spread firms to calculate the mean goals for each team, until i more familiar with it.
Surely the spread firms will have done their homework and an average of the 3 should be pretty close. |
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Bet 4
M'boro v Man Utd score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 6.81% 15.42 13.5 No bet -8.05% 0-1 12.90% 8.14 7 No bet -9.73% 0-2 12.21% 8.60 7.8 No bet -4.78% 0-3 7.70% 13.63 15.5 Value 19.41% 1-0 5.40% 19.43 21 Value 13.47% 1-1 10.23% 10.26 8.6 No bet -12.02% 1-2 9.68% 10.84 9 No bet -12.84% 1-3 6.11% 17.18 17 No bet 3.90% 2-0 2.14% 48.99 50 Value 7.16% 2-1 4.06% 25.88 27 Value 9.56% 2-2 3.84% 27.33 23 No bet -11.65% 2-3 2.42% 43.31 32 No bet -22.42% 3-0 0.57% 185.26 230 Value 30.36% 3-1 1.07% 97.85 95 No bet 1.94% 3-2 1.02% 103.36 90 No bet -8.57% 3-3 0.64% 163.78 100 No bet -35.89% Unq 8.70% 12.06 9.2 No bet -19.92% Dutching; 0-3 1-0 2-0 2-1 3-0 £50 staked Returns £288.15 (inc stake, ex commision) |
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unlucky mate
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silly bet boro had no chance of winning that game
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don't think you have grasped the point Vodka
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whats that losing money
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the point of the thread, you will realise some bets will lose but the original poster is trying to calculate value in his/her selections
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Man Utd v Arsenal
score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 9.26% 11.89 9.6 No bet -11.15% 0-1 7.93% 13.87 16 Value 26.86% 0-2 3.40% 32.39 40 Value 35.84% 0-3 0.97% 113.43 120 Value 16.37% 1-0 14.10% 7.80 7 No bet -1.31% WON WITH BETTER EDGE THAN 2-0 OR 2-1 1-1 12.08% 9.11 8.6 No bet 3.87% 1-2 5.17% 21.26 22 Value 13.81% 1-3 1.48% 74.46 70 No bet 3.41% 2-0 10.74% 10.24 8.6 No bet -7.65% 2-1 9.20% 11.96 10 No bet -8.01% 2-2 3.94% 27.92 23 No bet -9.37% 2-3 1.13% 97.76 80 No bet -9.99% 3-0 5.45% 20.17 18.5 No bet 0.88% 3-1 4.67% 23.55 19 No bet -11.25% 3-2 2.00% 54.98 42 No bet -15.97% 3-3 0.57% 192.53 90 No bet -48.58% Bet 2 Werder Bremen v Hamburg score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 6.18% 16.98 14.5 No bet -10.34% 0-1 6.49% 16.17 18 Value 16.86% 0-2 3.41% 30.81 32 Value 9.07% 0-3 1.19% 88.02 85 No bet 1.40% 1-0 10.72% 9.80 9.6 No bet 2.89% WON WITH BETTER EDGE OF TWO HOME WINS 1-1 11.25% 9.33 8.4 No bet -5.47% 1-2 5.91% 17.77 18 Value 6.34% 1-3 2.07% 50.78 55 Value 13.73% 2-0 9.29% 11.30 11 No bet 2.17% 2-1 9.75% 10.77 9 No bet -12.22% 2-2 5.12% 20.51 18 No bet -7.83% 2-3 1.79% 58.59 50 No bet -10.39% 3-0 5.37% 19.57 20 Value 7.33% 3-1 5.64% 18.63 18.5 No bet 4.25% 3-2 2.96% 35.49 30 No bet -11.25% 3-3 1.04% 101.41 70 No bet -27.52% STP 01 May 11:48 Bet 3 Histon v Torquay REALLY OTHER WAY ROUND !!! score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 8.35% 12.58 11.5 No bet -4.02% 0-1 8.07% 13.01 15 Value 21.02% 0-2 3.90% 26.93 32 Value 24.79% 0-3 1.26% 83.56 95 Value 19.37% 1-0 12.66% 8.29 7.6 No bet -3.79% LOST 1-1 12.24% 8.58 7.4 No bet -9.45% 1-2 5.91% 17.75 18.5 Value 9.42% 1-3 1.91% 55.10 60 Value 14.35% 2-0 9.60% 10.94 10 No bet -4.00% RESULT 2-1 9.28% 11.32 9.6 No bet -10.92% 2-2 4.49% 23.41 21 No bet -5.81% 2-3 1.45% 72.65 65 No bet -6.06% 3-0 4.85% 21.64 21 No bet 1.92% 3-1 4.69% 22.38 19 No bet -10.86% 3-2 2.27% 46.31 34 No bet -22.91% 3-3 0.73% 143.71 90 No bet -34.24% Unq 6.11% 17.18 13 No bet -20.53% STP 02 May 09:39 Bet 4 M'boro v Man Utd score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 6.81% 15.42 13.5 No bet -8.05% 0-1 12.90% 8.14 7 No bet -9.73% LOST BUT WAS WORSE EDGE OF TWO bf ODDS 0-2 12.21% 8.60 7.8 No bet -4.78% RESULT WITH BETTER EDGE OF TWO 0-3 7.70% 13.63 15.5 Value 19.41% 1-0 5.40% 19.43 21 Value 13.47% 1-1 10.23% 10.26 8.6 No bet -12.02% 1-2 9.68% 10.84 9 No bet -12.84% 1-3 6.11% 17.18 17 No bet 3.90% 2-0 2.14% 48.99 50 Value 7.16% 2-1 4.06% 25.88 27 Value 9.56% 2-2 3.84% 27.33 23 No bet -11.65% 2-3 2.42% 43.31 32 No bet -22.42% 3-0 0.57% 185.26 230 Value 30.36% 3-1 1.07% 97.85 95 No bet 1.94% 3-2 1.02% 103.36 90 No bet -8.57% 3-3 0.64% 163.78 100 No bet -35.89% Unq 8.70% 12.06 9.2 No bet -19.92% ================================================= Perhaps - 1. make a decision on what team wins...then 2. go by lowest two BF odds on that team winning, then chose one of two that has best edge . Just a suggeston...................don't dutch em though ...just 1 selection. In effect why not use the BF market odds as an indicator of likely two possible results......then apply your edge????? |
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Bet 4 - Lost
New Bank = £1028.11 P/L = +£28.11 25% strike rate Thanks for your comments. Good ideas there DCF , think i may take your ideas and give it a go on, see how i get on , after all its only a virtual bank |
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Change of plan now, taking on board the comments above from DFC,
Bet 4 Real v Barca score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 3.68% 27.20 17 No bet -37.51% 0-1 6.04% 16.55 15.5 No bet -6.37% 0-2 4.96% 20.15 20 No bet -0.73% 0-3 2.72% 36.78 36 No bet -2.12% 1-0 6.10% 16.39 15 No bet -8.47% 1-1 10.03% 9.97 7.8 No bet -21.78% Favourite, 2nd best edge 1-2 8.24% 12.14 11.5 No bet -5.24% 1-3 4.51% 22.16 24 Value 8.32% 2-0 5.06% 19.74 22 Value 11.43% 2-1 8.32% 12.01 11 No bet -8.44% 2nd fav, Best edge. Bet £50 2-2 6.84% 14.62 18 Value 23.10% 2-3 3.75% 26.69 30 Value 12.39% 3-0 2.80% 35.68 38 Value 6.50% 3-1 4.61% 21.71 24 Value 10.53% 3-2 3.78% 26.43 30 Value 13.53% 3-3 2.07% 48.24 55 Value 14.01% Unq 11.22% 8.91 6.8 No bet -23.70% £50 staked on 2-1 @ odds 11.0 |
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Real v Barca
score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 3.68% 27.20 17 No bet -37.51% 0-1 6.04% 16.55 15.5 No bet -6.37% 0-2 4.96% 20.15 20 No bet -0.73% 0-3 2.72% 36.78 36 No bet -2.12% 1-0 6.10% 16.39 15 No bet -8.47% 1-1 10.03% 9.97 7.8 No bet -21.78% Favourite, 2nd best edge 1-2 8.24% 12.14 11.5 No bet -5.24% 1-3 4.51% 22.16 24 Value 8.32% 2-0 5.06% 19.74 22 Value 11.43% 2-1 8.32% 12.01 11 No bet -8.44% 2nd fav, Best edge. Bet £50 2-2 6.84% 14.62 18 Value 23.10% 2-3 3.75% 26.69 30 Value 12.39% 3-0 2.80% 35.68 38 Value 6.50% 3-1 4.61% 21.71 24 Value 10.53% 3-2 3.78% 26.43 30 Value 13.53% 3-3 2.07% 48.24 55 Value 14.01% Unq 11.22% 8.91 6.8 No bet -23.70% If you take the view that BARCA might well steal this match ....then 1-2 might be score using the edge. Hope you are right for the virtual bank sake :D :D GL |
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Sorry got that wrong ..should read
Real v Barca score odds Betfair EDGE 0-0 3.68% 27.20 17 No bet -37.51% 0-1 6.04% 16.55 15.5 No bet -6.37% 0-2 4.96% 20.15 20 No bet -0.73% 0-3 2.72% 36.78 36 No bet -2.12% 1-0 6.10% 16.39 15 No bet -8.47% 1-1 10.03% 9.97 7.8 No bet -21.78% Favourite, 2nd best edge 1-2 8.24% 12.14 11.5 No bet -5.24% 1-3 4.51% 22.16 24 Value 8.32% 2-0 5.06% 19.74 22 Value 11.43% 2-1 8.32% 12.01 11 No bet -8.44% 2nd fav, Best edge. Bet £50 2-2 6.84% 14.62 18 Value 23.10% 2-3 3.75% 26.69 30 Value 12.39% 3-0 2.80% 35.68 38 Value 6.50% 3-1 4.61% 21.71 24 Value 10.53% 3-2 3.78% 26.43 30 Value 13.53% 3-3 2.07% 48.24 55 Value 14.01% Unq 11.22% 8.91 6.8 No bet -23.70% If you take the view that BARCA might well steal this match ....then 0-2 might be score using the edge. Hope you are right for the virtual bank sake :D :D |
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Sorry ...my eyes are not reading BF odds properly !!!!
My first guess is the likely one !!!! |
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Goals have come a bit early !!! Might tighten up a bit now though ...so 1-2 or 2-1 still on
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All happening ...some game ...pace tremendous.....
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Good job my other tip on a another thread come in,
STP 02 May 19:05 Real v Barca Over 2.5 @1.72 Real 7 games since a draw 18 games since a loss 20 out of 33 games scoring 2 or more goals 10 games since a home loss 11 out of 17 games scoring 2 or more home goals Barca 8 games since a loss 26 out of 33 games scoring 2 or more goals Only 6 games conceding 2 or more goals 4 games since an away loss 12 out of 16 games scoring 2 or more away goals Only 4 games conceding 2 or more away goals Just noticed already kicked off oops |