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Betfair Starting Price: 7.0 for RISAALA ....a cost again :(
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Towcester 3.50
1st 7 Risaala 11-2 2nd 1 Blakeneys Pet (IRE) 4-1 JF 3rd 5 Poppy Lee Brown 8-1 |
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BANK was before Risaala win was 1232.87 points
STAKE RETURN on win 45.42 WIN PROFIT 6.4 X 45.42 - 5 % 276.15 ---------------------- COMPOUND ATTEMPTS BANK now 1,554.44 points |
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4.10 Caprysse
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1,554.44 points Available odds: 10 (betfair) My odds: 6-1 (14.29 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 66.30 points WIN SFC cover with JUST FOR JEAN too beat it 5 points SFC cover with SURE JOSIE SURE 5 points |
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It is the usual on here.........I feel a bit like JORDAN ..........after reduction surgery .......I used to have 2 knockers ...and no sign of em now ]:) :D :D
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Caprysse IR win odds
5.00 £5 £245 5.10 £7 5.30 £14 5.40 £9 5.60 £14 5.70 £30 5.80 £4 5.90 £16 6.00 £393 6.20 £126 6.40 £143 6.60 £26 6.80 £22 7.00 £15 £343 7.20 £59 7.40 £42 7.60 £3 8.00 £6 8.20 £437 8.40 £1,994 8.60 £3,073 8.80 £3,619 9.00 £5,414 9.20 £3,982 9.39 £368 £3,984 |
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Haydock 4.10
1st 11 Sure Josie Sure (FR) 2-1 F 2nd 5 Just For Jean (IRE) 11-2 3rd 1 Last Of The Bunch 4-1 At least had right 2 for SFCS .......but Caprysse not 2nd :( |
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CLOSING BANK TODAY 1,478.14 POINTS
Now in profit (paper) over all after the 2 ATTEMPS threads re KELLY calculator use etc........................of 478.14 points. As there was over 400 points less profit today due to posting winner early on here compared to BF SP odds on Le Platino (GER) winning .....and was a wee bit "unlucky" with horse being brought down at last fence when looked a winner IMO.........costing 130 points approx......, then today was another "good" day.......and as usual the knockers are nowhere to be seen ]:) Away for tea.................... Gl with bets on footy tonight if "playing" Cheers the nooooooooooooooooooo |
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Nice work, DFC!
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Thanks gleeman.................................got some luck today .....but was due some.........all tends to smooth out in long run.......
Wen reach 1,000 points profit will just keep thread going with profit bank............well that is the plan for this thread so far................. Gl with bets. |
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Morning.
1478.14 points in profit this week on 2nd ATTEMPT at using Kelly calculator, so ,if you deduct the loss of 1,000 points from 1st ATTEMPT, then there is an over all profit of 448.14 points. No surprise the 2 knockers from 1st thread are strangely quiet..........they have not spouted the same repetitive c ra p as before.............]:) They seem to be oblivious to the fact that ,when selecting horses that generally are at higher odds , there will be periods when a bank is lost. There will also be periods when , if you have sufficient edge/s,, when you can rapidly increase a bank....just like the last 6 days. They would not accept , due to me not watching much racing the last 12 months, that I needed a period of catching up with current racing before returns would happen more frequently. IMO the loss on first thread was a combination of the circumstances described in last sentence, and also me getting used to using Kelly Calculator to help with STAKING. The last 6 days profit of 1,478.14 points indicates that my standard of selection is IMPROVING, as is my use of Kelly Calculator..............It could have been well over 2,000 points profit the last 6 days, if I was not posting well before OFF time ( like winner yesterday where the odds I posted were 15s and at BF SP they were approx. 25s.........a substantial difference). However, I knew this would happen, and it is just a cost of operating this thread ( only PAPER etc). Have to go out today......pubs await!!!! So only doing 1 race today. Spent 2 mins on it , and it is a fairly open race, but will take a chance on - ===================================================== 3.50 Hexham - BRIERY STAR COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1478.14 points Available odds: 7.6 (betfair) My odds: 5-1 (16.67 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 49.96 points WIN Gl with bets today. |
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Morning. have to do some "chores" early on, so wil post a few now.
11.55 - Too many in with a chance and going makes it tricky in an APPRENTICE H/C race. So PASS on this one. 12.15 McMurrough COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1428.18 points Available odds: 3 (betfair) My odds: 6-4 (40 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 120.27 points WIN As cover wil select a SFC with MILAN'S MAN to beat McMurrough for 10 points. ========================================================== 12.25 No selection ...not keen on shape of race. ======================================================== 12.30 - Blue Express COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1297.91 points before races above. Available odds: 4.8 (betfair) My odds: 3-1 (25%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 54.83 points WIN ======================================================= GL with bets today |
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Kelso 12.15
1st 6 Mcmurrough (IRE) 2-1 2nd 3 Canadian Blaze (IRE) 15-2 3rd 4 Doc Wells (IRE) 16-1 Good start ! |
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BANK was 1243.08 before MCMURROUGH win
STAKE RETURN 120.27 WIN PROFIT Mcmurrough 120.27x2 - 5% 228.51 -------------------- COMBINED BANK before next race 1591.86 points |
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12.40 - Diamond Brook
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1591.86 points before races above. Available odds: 5.3(betfair) My odds: 7-2(22.22%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 50.61 points WIN |
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BLUE EXPRESS was Betfair Starting Price: 7.415962
So again losing out on posting early here! Just a cost of operating thread. |
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12.50 - Shaylee
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1541.25 points before 12.40 race Available odds: 8.8 (betfair) My odds: 6-1 (14.29 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 41.97 points WIN |
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DIAMOND BROOK IR odds win market not very good
4.00 £0 £165 4.10 £38 £35 4.20 £19 4.40 £241 4.50 £191 4.60 £664 4.70 £2,213 4.80 £1,244 4.90 £1,802 5.00 £3,654 5.10 £6,034 5.20 £17,298 5.30 £22,898 5.40 £8,209 5.47 £396 £2,357 |
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1.00 - Redden
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1499.28 points before 12.50 race Available odds: 6.8 (betfair) My odds: 5-1 (16.67 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 23.19 points WIN |
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1.05 3 runner race ....and don't like shape or odds ...so PASS.
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1.15 - Its Crucial
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1476.09 points before next race Available odds: 10.50 (betfair) My odds: 7- 1 (12.50 7 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 41.40 points WIN |
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REDDEN IR odds in win market
2.00 £130 £865 2.02 £15 £462 2.04 £24 2.10 £10 £122 2.12 £10 2.14 £8 2.22 £24 2.26 £50 2.30 £26 2.32 £54 2.34 £26 2.40 £26 2.44 £6 2.50 £4 £241 2.52 £128 2.54 £21 2.56 £100 2.60 £22 2.62 £100 £686 2.64 £125 2.66 £12 2.74 £20 £391 2.82 £11 £10 2.90 £20 2.92 £28 2.94 £64 3.00 £117 £473 3.05 £196 3.10 £128 3.15 £61 3.20 £5 £82 3.25 £96 3.30 £63 3.40 £74 3.45 £0 3.50 £28 3.55 £2 3.60 £31 3.65 £19 £309 3.75 £4 3.90 £24 3.95 £4 4.00 £99 £144 4.10 £56 4.20 £55 4.50 £100 4.90 £24 5.00 £9 £1,446 5.10 £71 5.20 £31 5.40 £10 £1,860 5.43 £686 £3,037 |
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1.25 - Harmony Brig
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1434.69 points before next race Available odds: 16 (betfair) My odds: 10- 1 (9.09 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 38.89 points WIN |
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IT'S CRUCIAL odds in win market IR
6.40 £165 6.60 £90 6.80 £113 7.00 £357 7.20 £124 7.40 £18 7.60 £192 7.80 £1,245 8.00 £486 8.20 £316 8.40 £129 8.60 £2 £334 8.80 £317 9.00 £1,741 9.20 £3,326 9.40 £6,341 9.60 £5,638 9.80 £2,370 10.00 £3,364 10.10 £237 £4,886 |
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1.35 very competitive race ...so no time to weigh up...therefor PASS on.
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HARMONY BRIG Betfair Starting Price: 19.981661
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1.40 - Zarinski
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1395.80 points before next race Available odds: 3.3 (betfair) My odds: 2-1 (33.33 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 39.33 points WIN |
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1.45- Caoba
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1356.47 points before next race Available odds: 7.2 (betfair) My odds: 5-1 (16.67 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 34.21 points WIN |
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1.55 - Quick Will
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1322.26 points before 1.40 race Available odds: 14.50 (betfair) My odds: 9-1 (10%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 39.44 points WIN |
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ZARINSKIE IR win odds
1.13 £1,006 1.14 £97 1.18 £448 1.19 £38 1.20 £1,198 1.21 £3,780 1.22 £94 1.23 £16 £537 1.24 £51 1.25 £3,346 1.26 £147 1.30 £427 1.31 £398 1.32 £326 1.33 £2,731 1.34 £346 1.35 £4 1.36 £214 1.37 £20 1.38 £2 £3,594 1.39 £14 £72 1.40 £2,785 1.41 £165 1.42 £730 1.43 £366 1.44 £1,004 1.45 £2,564 1.46 £41 1.47 £54 1.48 £225 1.49 £120 1.50 £9,897 1.51 £5,187 1.52 £7,437 1.53 £373 1.54 £538 1.55 £1,696 1.56 £10 £1,690 1.57 £2,295 1.58 £1,140 1.59 £1,852 1.60 £5,111 1.61 £146 1.62 £687 1.63 £346 1.64 £717 1.65 £454 1.66 £99 1.67 £304 1.68 £114 1.69 £344 1.70 £1,500 1.71 £1,303 1.72 £67 1.73 £82 1.74 £439 1.75 £20 1.76 £473 1.77 £201 1.78 £963 1.80 £9,737 1.81 £21 1.82 £28 1.85 £201 1.86 £86 1.88 £263 1.89 £2,647 1.90 £2,332 1.91 £186 1.92 £120 1.93 £473 1.94 £740 1.95 £40 1.96 £432 1.97 £600 1.98 £514 1.99 £115 2.00 £3,126 2.02 £158 2.04 £1,435 2.06 £485 2.08 £130 2.10 £3,219 2.12 £147 2.14 £504 2.16 £150 2.20 £1,690 2.22 £4 £18 2.26 £1,021 2.30 £231 2.32 £206 2.34 £16 2.35 £8 2.36 £5 2.37 £54 2.38 £4 2.39 £49 2.40 £175 2.41 £8 2.42 £152 2.44 £89 2.46 £53 2.48 £3,483 2.50 £5,425 2.52 £10,129 2.54 £7,197 2.55 £33 2.56 £4,599 2.57 £4 2.58 £904 2.59 £19 2.60 £7,724 2.61 £64 2.62 £1,561 2.64 £1,524 2.66 £463 2.68 £475 2.70 £1,181 2.72 £1,136 2.74 £2,132 2.76 £1,389 2.78 £736 2.80 £2,986 2.82 £2,708 2.83 £5 2.84 £1,604 2.86 £6,130 2.87 £24 2.88 £16,198 £4,561 £7,706 |
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CAOBA IR odds win market
1.71 £34 £22 1.72 £579 1.73 £5 £98 1.74 £89 1.76 £42 £469 1.77 £61 £347 1.78 £198 1.80 £44 £478 1.81 £355 1.85 £8 £8 1.88 £6 1.90 £5 £144 1.93 £4 1.96 £2 £1 1.99 £5 £901 2.00 £178 £3,384 2.02 £29 £445 2.04 £398 2.06 £25 £2,257 2.08 £17 £888 2.10 £519 2.12 £1,043 2.14 £1,902 2.16 £23 2.20 £356 2.22 £5 £2,289 2.24 £14 £137 2.26 £151 2.28 £148 2.30 £140 2.32 £277 2.34 £97 £260 2.38 £435 2.40 £34 2.42 £92 2.44 £25 £60 2.48 £231 2.50 £63 £137 2.52 £36 2.54 £113 2.56 £85 2.60 £188 2.62 £160 2.66 £98 2.70 £110 2.80 £268 2.82 £5 2.88 £4 £28 2.90 £6 £883 2.94 £12 2.96 £467 2.98 £14 3.00 £27 £3,552 3.05 £169 3.10 £5 £196 3.15 £148 3.20 £57 £23 3.25 £58 £22 3.30 £30 3.35 £55 £27 3.40 £56 £12 3.50 £4 £179 3.55 £30 3.60 £6 £186 3.65 £8 3.70 £38 3.80 £38 3.85 £359 £81 3.90 £44 3.95 £4 £102 4.00 £1,057 4.10 £42 £733 4.20 £748 4.30 £970 4.40 £2 £861 4.50 £9 £1,302 4.60 £27 £1,370 4.70 £1,462 4.80 £8 £1,370 4.90 £1,559 5.00 £40 £6,067 5.10 £15 £6,807 5.20 £3,804 5.30 £18 £2,846 5.40 £1,306 5.50 £60 £429 5.60 £177 5.70 £273 5.80 £370 5.90 £646 6.00 £3,303 6.20 £7,973 6.23 £918 £7,336 BIT ANNOYED as AMBER BROOK was my initial selection in this race.......trust me to back in earlier race a NTD horse which was nowhere......then go against this one , mainly due to weight carrying ....won race the year before etc! |
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QUICK WILL brought down when going well .....
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9.80 £2 £6
10.00 £19 £262 10.50 £718 11.00 £3,620 11.50 £1,716 11.61 £0 12.00 £2,596 12.08 £4 12.44 £220 £4,217 QUICK WILL iR odds |
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2.05 too open PAS
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2.10 - Cruchain
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1282.82 points Available odds: 17 (betfair) My odds: 12-1 (6.67%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 20.74 points WIN |
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2.15 Tasheba
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1282.82 points Available odds: 9 (betfair) My odds: 6-1 (14.29 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 38.02 points WIN |
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CRUCHAIN Betfair Starting Price: 18.07767
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8.40 £2 £0
8.60 £26 8.80 £8 9.00 £11 £24 9.20 £13 9.40 £7 £93 9.60 £153 9.80 £49 10.00 £2 £75 10.50 £0 £95 11.00 £4 £388 11.50 £169 12.00 £471 12.50 £81 13.00 £221 13.50 £3 £193 CRUCHAIN IR odds |
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2.25 Oumeyade
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1224.06 points Available odds: 12.50 (betfair) My odds: 8-1 (11.11 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 36.40 points WIN |
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TASHEEBA ...nowhere close IR odds
6.40 £12 6.60 £19 6.80 £128 7.00 £259 7.20 £551 7.40 £687 7.60 £2,106 7.80 £3,353 8.00 £3,099 8.20 £965 8.40 £2,011 8.60 £3,731 8.80 £4,314 9.00 £5,742 9.20 £2,448 £630 £6,251 |