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ATTEMPT 2 USING KELLY CALCULATOR

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By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 14 Nov 09 22:44
He is certainly preoccupied with trying to top naps table....and GL to him...................but if he judges me on last 12 months naps comp re ability to pck winners ...at good odds....tis him that is deluded.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 11:17
Afternoon ...trying KC with real money today ...small stakes only.

12.20 - FLAGPOINT
BANK STARTING : £ 338.63

ODDS AVAILABLE : ( Betfair)

PROBABILITY % = 20-1 ( 4.76 %)

STAKE : 12.69

WIN STAKE £2
PLACE STAKE £ 2 at 16s


Using roughly one third total stakes .....
Will be setting lays IR
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 11:19
As munching breakfast as well .......the posts may be sporadic.................

Gl with bets today
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 11:32
12.30 - Naughty Diesel PLACE ONLY

BANK STARTING : £ 334.63

ODDS AVAILABLE : 29 ( Betfair)

PROBABILITY % = 10-1 ( 9.09 %)

STAKE : 18.98

PLACE STAKE £ 4 at 29s/22s now

Using roughly one third total stakes .....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 11:35
Small lay Ir gave £5 profit on race ....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 11:41
12.50 - Sporting Medic


BANK STARTING : £ 339.43


ODDS AVAILABLE : 5.7 ( Betfair) PLACE MARKET

PROBABILITY % = 3-1 ( 25 %)

STAKE : 27.84

PLACE STAKE £ 6 PLACE and £2 win at 18s



Using roughly one third total stakes
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 11:42
Should read -

12.50 - Sporting Medic


BANK before 12.50 : £ 339.43


ODDS AVAILABLE : 5.7 ( Betfair) PLACE MARKET

PROBABILITY % = 3-1 ( 25 %)

STAKE : 27.84

PLACE STAKE £ 6 PLACE and £2 win at 18s



Using roughly one third total stakes
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:02
1.10 - Tataniano


BANK before 1.10 : £ 331.43


ODDS AVAILABLE : 2 ( BF)

PROBABILITY % = 4-5 ( 55.56 %)

STAKE : 29.10

WIN STAKE £10 Tataniano

Cover bet £2 on Five Dream
at 9.6


Using roughly one third total stakes
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:15
£7 profit on 1.10 race before commission...................layed off stakes IR near end.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:16
1.25 no bet ...not clear.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:21
1.35 - Honest John


BANK : £ 335.78


ODDS AVAILABLE : 6.6 ( BF)

PROBABILITY % : 3-1 ( 25 %)

STAKE : 36.61

WIN STAKE £12
Using roughly one third total stakes
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:22
Am laying IR to cover stake............................not saying at what odds though....]:)
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:28
1.45 is too open a shaped race ......so PASS.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:29
2.00 on going with 4 runners ...PASS
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:35
2.10 - Camden George

BANK : £ 326.98

ODDS AVAILABLE : 7.2 ( BF)

PROBABILITY % : 4-1 ( 20 %)

STAKE : 21.11

WIN STAKE £7.57 Using roughly one third total stakes
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 12:41
Stakes saved on 1.35 race ....IR
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:01
2.20 - Silverhand


BANK : £ 331.41 before 2.10 race

ODDS AVAILABLE : 9.4 ( BF)

PROBABILITY % : 5-1 ( 16.67 %)

STAKE : 20.64

WIN STAKE £8 Silverhand

COVER BET ON HARRY TRICKER £3 WIN at 6.8

Using roughly one third total stakes
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:18
Traded IR on CAMDEN GEORGE so £21.43 before commission made on winner :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:25
£12 profit IR on HARRY TRICKER race ...less commission............:D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:26
2.35 - a bit open and don't have time to weigh up! so PASS
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:27
2.45 too small a field ..so PASS
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:34
£31.19 in profit so far .....feeling a wee bit knackered........site is far too slow today.......maybe it is because I am using the VIDEO BF to watch races ( seems to slow system down too much )........................

So just going to do 1 more race today on here....the 3.10 race...will post just before off
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:40
3.10 - Enroblim Trop

BANK : £ 369.82

ODDS AVAILABLE : 8 ( BF)

PROBABILITY % : 6-1 (14.29 %)

STAKE : 5.18

WIN STAKE £6 as last bet on horses on here.
By:
Deltâ
When: 15 Nov 09 13:54
DFCIRONMAN

for clarity, I am not 'judging' you on the last 12 months, I am passing an opinion on your ability since 2004 on here to have never made a profit on naps comps or the 57 sysyten threads you have started and lost numerous banks, with excuse after excuse after excuse

I know I know 5 years too short a period to judge.......yawn



Hope this helps
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 13:56
This is not correct ....but if you are so clever ....then just keep it to yersel.....as your opinion means absolutely nothing to me...........................
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 14:10
BTW - this thread + last thread is IN PROFIT .......and this ignores the hundreds of points that are not obtained by posting EARLY on here...............................

Also, you are not taking into account the ODDS that some of my naps won at ( I'm talking well before 12 months agao.....as have not really been active on appraising races daily LOOKING FOR A NAP......................that has not been imporant to me, other than in TEAM comp only)........eg a 50-1 SP nap was at far higher odds on here.....................You are probably a mere fav backer, so such odds are not struck by now and then ( like I have had a 40-1 and a 50-1 SP winner just in last week

So DELTA.............................................go and play with your short odds naps..........
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 14:36
Horse Racing: £23.19 | Soccer: £21.11 Total P&L: £44.30

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 11 of 11 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Font 15th Nov : 3m4f Hcap Chs 15-Nov-09 15:10 15-Nov-09 15:21 -8.00
Horse Racing / Chelt 15th Nov : 2m5f Hcap Hrd 15-Nov-09 14:55 15-Nov-09 15:02 0.00
Horse Racing / Chelt 15th Nov : 2m Hcap Hrd 15-Nov-09 14:20 15-Nov-09 14:27 10.46
Horse Racing / MrktR 15th Nov : 2m4f Hcap Chs 15-Nov-09 14:10 15-Nov-09 14:17 20.38
Horse Racing / MrktR 15th Nov : 2m3f Hcap Hrd 15-Nov-09 13:35 15-Nov-09 13:43 0.00
Horse Racing / Chelt 15th Nov : 2m Nov Chs 15-Nov-09 13:10 15-Nov-09 13:15 6.83
Horse Racing / Font 15th Nov : To Be Placed 15-Nov-09 12:50 15-Nov-09 12:59 -6.00
Horse Racing / Font 15th Nov : 2m2f Beg Chs 15-Nov-09 12:50 15-Nov-09 12:59 -2.00
Horse Racing / MrktR 15th Nov : To Be Placed 15-Nov-09 12:30 15-Nov-09 12:38 4.75
Horse Racing / Font 15th Nov : To Be Placed 15-Nov-09 12:20 15-Nov-09 12:29 -1.23
Horse Racing / Font 15th Nov : 2m6f Hcap Hrd 15-Nov-09 12:20 15-Nov-09 12:28 -2.00

Was not really in the mood today......still bleary eyed after the 4.00 am finish with footy ..............So a small profit is ok for today....6.8% up with horse races ...so can't complain.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 14:56
Deltâ 15 Nov 14:54
DFCIRONMAN

for clarity, I am not 'judging' you on the last 12 months, I am passing an opinion on your ability since 2004 on here to have never made a profit on naps comps or the 57 sysyten threads you have started and lost numerous banks, with excuse after excuse after excuse

I know I know 5 years too short a period to judge.......yawn
Hope this helps
==========================================================

Just for the record .......you have never been top of the annual naps comp yet ...have you? NO!

Guess what .........I have - ( I forgot about it , as not been really paying much attention to this comp since MAY 2008..........................my system development was far more important !)


undecided 01 May 12:54
Here are the cumulative scores for 2008
New Players receive -10 for every month missed
Retirees get -1 for every compulsory day during the month in question (-26 for Apr)
Players making a comeback get -10 for every month missed (apart from the month they retired in)

12 month "rolling" table to follow

Congratulations to April Premier Champ DFCIRONMAN, topping the overall league as josh monk is deposed for the first time in a while. prizecrew, Div 2 champ is up to 2nd and little.bobby moves up to 9th after posting April's best score.

Pos.Tipster.....................2008 Total..Apr.....Mar.....Feb.....Jan.....
1...DFCIRONMAN..................43.64.......20.00...11.82...38.49...-26.67..
2...prizecrew...................28.31.......22.91...10.35...-16.17..11.22...
3...grendel.....................24.58.......04.13...21.37...-04.12..03.20...
4...loafingstone................20.69.......-00.50..15.58...11.40...-05.79..
5...josh monk...................17.38.......-06.50..-08.37..00.62...31.63...
6...Mick Sturbs.................13.67.......05.25...16.49...01.54...-09.61..
7...twm.........................12.58.......13.08...12.23...-11.53..-01.20..
8...Lotone......................12.40.......12.00...-04.12..-12.24..16.76...
9...little.bobby................11.66.......33.73...-06.37..-21.08..05.38...
10..Guesser.....................10.46.......22.63...04.57...-07.17..-09.57..
11..PRODELLBOY..................08.89.......08.43...-07.13..-05.79..13.38...
12..bosstipper..................08.46.......-13.50..-03.87..08.25...17.58...
13..neogenic....................06.74.......-00.50..17.31...-08.93..-01.14..
14..Draw1.......................06.69.......09.88...-06.94..-02.06..05.81...
15..Kentish Man.................05.79.......-01.85..-05.41..15.41...-02.36..
16..PLACE BETTING PRO...........05.25.......24.00...-01.87..-03.63..-13.25..
17..razmos......................02.41.......19.12...-01.50..-05.92..-09.29..
18..Hushwing....................02.26.......-03.24..-06.62..19.96...-07.84..
19..big balls...................02.01.......-05.50..-01.00..02.83...05.68...
20..Tarkovsky...................01.78.......-10.22..18.20...-15.95..09.75...

===============================================

So you are inaccurate with your comments above.....not only re the naps ...but also on my system and some of my threads.


If you feel you have to spew out your rubbish Deltâ and bad-mouthing me on my threads, well come back when you reach TOP of either the ANNUAL NAPS comp ...or ROLLING naps comp. Otherwise ....KEEP YOUR arrogant garbish to yersel! ]:) :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 15:05
undecided 01 May 13:49
Still best over the last 12 months, by some margin, is josh monk!
Only 10 players in profit, shows how hard this game is!

Pos.Tipster.....................Total...... (Drop)
1...josh monk...................100.71..... (22.75)
2...neogenic....................35.93...... (-01.06)
3...Kingmambo...................29.15...... (11.36)
4...mini me.....................19.97...... (08.66)
5...mikeyboymike................15.21...... (04.66)
6...PRODELLBOY..................13.33...... (30.81)
7...Tarkovsky...................08.76...... (-11.12)
8...Ricky Santini...............08.13...... (11.03)
9...DFCIRONMAN..................03.97...... (-08.00)
10..FOREST OF DEAN..............00.49...... (03.31)
11..loafingstone................-02.49..... (-01.76)
12..tryoffagain.................-05.26..... (05.09)
13..grendel.....................-05.84..... (07.79)
14..little.bobby................-12.37..... (00.89)
15..Hushwing....................-12.69..... (-29.00)
16..Davenport...................-13.71..... (19.00)
17..Billyboybill................-16.08..... (-01.88)
18..Yogi........................-16.45..... (-12.19)
19..PLACE BETTING PRO...........-25.25..... (-10.00)
20..Kentish Man.................-25.77..... (-13.87)
====================================================

Also IN PROFIT at SP over 12 months too Delta.........................................so again you are inaccurate....no surprise really!

Remember the horses that usually I had as winners were well over BF odds.....as they were generally at good odds...not favs! So whilst it states just over 3 points profit above......it was far more than that!

As don't want your arrogance and lies re me permeating this thread ...it is important for the record that I post the above,
By:
Deltâ
When: 15 Nov 09 15:59
142.DFCIRONMAN.....................-167.07....


you forgot to take this amount off


you do the maths

oh dear
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 16:06
Deltâ ....the maths is irrelevant ...learn to read what was posted ....I have not paid any reall attention to racing for over 12 months........since MAY 2008 in fact................................

When you reach TOP of ANNUAL naps or 12 rolling table ...then you might get some "respect"....until now ...you don't ....as all you do is distort facts. EG .........no threads showing PROFIT etc etc ......THIS THREAD IS IN PROFIT .....so learn to read....instead of spouting a lot of hot air..........oh arrogant one ..................
By:
Deltâ
When: 15 Nov 09 16:12
for clarity of FACT

for the overall period you have been in the naps table - you are showing a LOSS

for all the 57 or so system/paper threads/new banks/ threads - you are showing a LOSS


FACT
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 16:14
As I said ...you just distort FACTS ...............................you make an incorrect post on this thread , then deny making said lies.......................pathetic you are!
By:
Deltâ
When: 15 Nov 09 16:25
Deltâ 15 Nov 14:54
DFCIRONMAN

for clarity, I am not 'judging' you on the last 12 months, I am passing an opinion on your ability since 2004 on here to have never made a profit on naps comps or the 57 sysyten threads you have started and lost numerous banks, with excuse after excuse after excuse

I know I know 5 years too short a period to judge.......yawn



Hope this helps



nowt incorrect in the original imo
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 16:27
Delta - here is just one thread ( the first one came to ...and oldest one I can access etc )

==============================================

DFCIRONMAN 25 Feb 18:16
BANK POSITION DAY BY DAY -

Openinng Bank 13.01.07 3,000 points
13.01.07 LOSS ( 20) 2,980
14.01.07 PROFIT + 22 3,002
15.01.07 LOSS ( 372 ) 2,630
16.01.07 LOSS ( 9 ) 2,621
17.01.07 PROFIT +129 2,750
18.01.07 LOSS ( 211 ) 2,539
19.01.07 PROFIT +412 2,961
20.01.07 PROFIT +321 3,282
21.01.07 LOSS ( 154 ) 3,128
22.01.07 PROFIT + 75 3,203
23.01.07 LOSS ( 219 ) 2,984
24.01.07 PROFIT + 429 3,413
25.01.07 PROFIT +704 4,117
26.01.07 LOSS ( 16) 4,101
27.01.07 LOSS ( 560 ) 3,541
28.01.07 LOSS ( 74 ) 3,467
29.01.07 PROFIT+243 3,710
30.01.07 PROFIT+ 83 3,793
31.01.07 LOSS ( 43 ) 3,750
01.02.07 PROFIT+ 467 4,217
02.02.07 LOSS (386 ) 3,831
03.02.07PROFIT +353 4,184
04.02.07 LOSS ( 62) 4,122
05.02.07PROFIT +35 4,157
06.02.07LOSS (1,071)3,086
07.02.07PROFIT+ 174 3,260
08.02.07PROFIT +369 3,629
09.02.07LOSS(1,377) 2,252
10.02.07PROFIT+ 384 2,636
11.02.07PROFIT+ 348 2,984
12.02.07 COMPUTER CRASHED
13.02.07 SAME
14.02.07PROFIT+ 200 3,184
15.02.07PROFIT+ 614 3,798
16.02.07PROFIT+ 1,324 5,122
17.02.07PROFIT+ 170 5,292
18.02.07PROFIT+156 5,448
19.02.07PROFIT+ 101 5,549
20.02.07LOSS ( 914) 4,635 ( Incls. Football loss -156 points)
21.02.07PROFIT+669 5,304 ( incldsFootball PROFIT + 78 points)
22.02.07LOSS ( 223) 5,081
23.02.07PROFIT + 30 5,111 ( got sidetracked by someone's post and never posted BOOK OF KINGS as my main selectionas a winner....so this profit would have been approximately 200 points....but have excluded from tally)
24.02.07LOSS(222) 4,889
25.02.07LOSS (543) 4,356 ( lost 361 points in dabbling in IRELAND and not geting BLACK OPAL as winner effected results)

Gn the nooooooooo
=================================================


So profit of 1,356 points from 13.01.07 to 25.02.07...........................not very good was it????

Ther are other threads too....................................so just another FACT that you want to lie about ........why do you lie Delta? Is it just your sheer arrogance that you believe what you post ????
By:
Deltâ
When: 15 Nov 09 16:38
DFCIRONMAN

I think thats another reason why you lose is your character and how you react whenever anyone has a different opinion on your thread, you go off on one, important factor in betting is character.

Anyways we all different I guess and I accept your apology.

All the best...........
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 17:01
Next year I will be spending time daily appraising most races.......so nap winners will begin again when I start to put TIME into it.......As have been backing winners at good odds last few days, then i know I am already getting back up to speed on horses that win at good odds.

BTW - you were NOT stating an OPINION when you first posted here ...it was an "attack" on my character.........................................and your post stating I was "delusional" on HORSERACING FORUM the other day was again just a "personal attack" on me.................

You seem to be a bit warped with your "character"...................................but GL Delta on trying to be TOP OF NAPS TABLE....hope you make it...........I just hope your head does not get too big If it happens......
By:
getting better
When: 15 Nov 09 17:25
Please can you not post this on General Betting which is not intended for this kind of thread. Please can you continue it on Competitions. Thanks very much for your cooperation, and best wishes with your betting. Pleased to see you are doing better after a shaky start.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 15 Nov 09 17:43
The thread is about the use of KELLY CALCULATOR with horse racing bets........so as there are a few forumites interested in such use, then I will continue on here .....

Trust you appreciate point made getting better....................

GL with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 25 Nov 09 17:18
As lee h2 does not believe that posting selections on this thread EARLY had any effect on the results for this thread......only paper bank, but still a point of principle.......I thought I'd check out TWO factors effecting amount of profit -


1. What would have been extra profit had BF SP been used as opposed to the odds I saw at time I posted selection , and

2. What would have been extra profit had I used FULL KELLY staking opposed to the amounts used on thread ( partial Kelly sometimes).


Below are figures which show that the paper profit on ATTEMPT 2 ( was approximately 1,090 points profit ignoring above two points on ATTEMPT 2 ) would have been showing an additional profit of
1,022.95 BEFORE commission taken off......



Of course lee h2 does not believe that it made any difference at all..................then again he does not know much about horse racing ( self admitted ) either .....]:)


182.15 175.4 914.84 1102.3 1022.95
BF BF ODDS EXTRA
SP ODDS TAKEN WIN KELLY PROFIT
WINNING EARLY STAKES FULL OR LOSS
BETS DUE TO USED AT STAKES IF BFSP
RUNNING EARLY AND FULL
THREAD ODDS KELLY
USED

2.28 2.5 124.57 124.57 -27.4 WON

-47.01



6.03 4.9 57 113.01 346.14 WON



9.48 13.5 28.57 28.57 -114.85 WON
CLOSE TO PLACING






DOWN TO 1.50 IR
DOWN TO 2.56 IR
DOWN TO 11 IR



DOWN TO 3.7 IR
DOWN TO 1.02 IR
DOWN TO 6 IR 3RD
DOWN TO 3.50 IR
DOWN TO 2.24 IR
4.2 4.2 66.13 66.13 0 WON 5-2 FAV
DOWN TO 4 IR
DOWN TO 8 IR
DOWN TO 4.3 IR
DOWN TO 5.4 IR

4.1 3.05 30 153.42 414.1 WON 11-4 F BFSP 4.1

DOWN TO 2.22 IR
DOWN TO 5.39 IR
DOWN TO 1.25 IR
DOWN TO 5.9 IR

69.5 70 7.42 7.42 -3.71 WON 40-1 SP




BUMPED NEAR END


DT 1.34 IR 3RD 6-1SP
18 14 29.58 29.58 118.32 WON 12-1 SP
5.6 5.3 70.44 70.44 21.13 WON 4-1 FAV


4.89 6.2 64.95 64.95 -85.08 WON 4-1 SP
DT 4.20 IR


DT 2.00 IR 2ND 16-1 SP
DT 4.40 IR
DT 2.32 IR

DT 6.6 IR

5.7 7.8 25 33.03 -14.75 WON 9-2 sp

DT 4.40 IR
DT 3.00 IR 3RD 9-1SP





DT 4.10 IR 2ND 3-1
3.41 4.3 28.25 28.25 -25.14 WON 9-4 F
DT 8.2 IR
DT 1.25 IR INTERFERENCE
DT 4.50 IR
DT 18.50 IR
DT 2.6 IR
1.99 2.1 96.89 96.89 -10.65 WON 10-11F

DT 1.50 IR 2ND 3-1 SP
DT 17 IR
24.83 15 43.67 43.67 429.27 WON 16-1 SP
7 7.4 45.42 45.42 -18.16 WON 11-2 SP
DT 5 IR



3.36 3 120.27 120.27 43.29 WON 2-1

DT 4 IR

DT 2 IR
DT 6.4 IR

DT 1.13 IR
DT 1.72 IR
B/D GOING WELL
DT 9 IR
DT 6.8 IR
DT 3.7 IR

7.81 8.4 23.97 23.97 -14.14 WON 5-1 SP

B/D GOING WELL
LSE HST 1.50 IR2ND 20-1
3.97 3.75 52.71 52.71 11.59 WON 5-2
2ND 5-2 SP DT 1.10 IR

DT 6.08 IR 3RD 8-1 SP
DT 1.26 IR 2ND 8-1 SP

DT 1.34 IR 3RD 9-2
DT 6 IR
DT 7.6 IR
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