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ATTEMPT 2 USING KELLY CALCULATOR

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By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:23
2.40 - Sir Gerry



COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1187.66 points
Available odds: 9.60 (betfair)
My odds: 6-1 (14.29 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 45.12 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:29
Betfair Starting Price: 16.5 Oumeyade
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:31

3.70 £61 £322
3.75 £5
3.80 £102
3.85 £28
3.90 £4
4.00 £50 £392
4.10 £25 £407
4.20 £2 £945
4.30 £8 £30
4.40 £177 £20
4.50 £19 £301
4.70 £51 £143

4.80 £4 £326
4.90 £21 £127
5.00 £222 £716
5.10 £51 £117
5.20 £113
5.30 £118
5.40 £76
5.50 £177 £149
6.00 £111 £222
6.20 £447
6.40 £29
6.60 £3 £28
6.80 £84
7.00 £10 £34
7.20 £185
8.00 £29
8.20 £2
8.40 £8
8.60 £42
8.80 £25
9.00 £85
9.20 £5
9.40 £249
9.60 £132
9.80 £374
10.00 £488
10.50 £200 £267
11.00 £606
11.50 £12 £179
12.00 £394
12.50 £159
13.00 £310
13.50 £402
14.00 £160 £2,317
14.50 £2,719
15.00 £33 £3,752
15.50 £3,351
16.00 £2 £2,654
16.50 £1,287 £235 £3,899


Oumeyade IR odds
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:34
2.45 - Harry Tricker



COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1142.54 points
Available odds: 8.40 (betfair)
My odds: 6-1 (14.29 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 23.97 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:38
3.15 - Stormy Weather


COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1118.57 points
Available odds: 12.5 (betfair)
My odds: 8-1 (11.11%)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 33.97 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:42
Sir Gerry was 14.50 a few secs ago ...now shortening again

another cost of posting early IF wins.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:50
I'm getting fed-up of markets not loading etc etc ...been going o all afternoon......

So away for coffee!!!!!! may not return .............
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:52
Sandown 2.45
1st 3 Harry Tricker 5-1
2nd 7 Zabeel Palace 3-1 F
3rd 6 Akram (IRE) 9-2


Winner at last :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 13:55
BANK before 3.15 race and also HARRY TRICKER win was 1084.60 points

STAKE RETURN HARRY TRICKER 23.97
WIN PROFIT 7.4 X 23.97 - 5 % 168.50
------------------------
COMPOUND BANK now before 3.15 race 1,277.07 points
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:25
3.35 - Breakwater House



COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1277.07 points
Available odds: 12 (betfair)
My odds: 9-1 (10 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 17.72 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:29
3.35 - Sierra Victor



COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1259.35 points
Available odds: 22 (betfair)
My odds: 9-1 (6.67 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 25.08 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:43
Not much LUCK IR in that race for both choices.....

SIERRA VICTOR IR odds

1.50 £759
1.51 £11
1.52 £16
1.54 £200
1.55 £192
1.56 £21
1.57 £53
1.58 £88
1.59 £40
1.60 £312
1.61 £646
1.62 £230
1.63 £60
1.64 £77
1.65 £147
1.66 £3 £2,155
1.67 £245
1.70 £228
1.71 £65
1.73 £75
1.75 £4

1.76 £6
1.80 £1,575
1.81 £21
1.82 £91
1.84 £8
1.85 £8
1.86 £638
1.88 £43
1.89 £67
1.90 £258
1.92 £232
1.94 £16
1.96 £81
1.97 £61
1.99 £4
2.00 £2,129
2.02 £824
2.04 £302
2.06 £138
2.08 £209
2.10 £244
2.12 £6
2.14 £860
2.16 £113
2.18 £50
2.20 £30 £26
2.24 £120
2.30 £60
2.32 £58
2.34 £17
2.36 £100
2.38 £38 £73
2.40 £442
2.42 £35
2.44 £302
2.46 £34
2.48 £234
2.50 £64
2.52 £70
2.56 £236
2.58 £94
2.60 £114
2.64 £77
2.66 £106
2.70 £112
2.80 £45
2.84 £10
2.92 £44
2.98 £12
3.00 £695
3.05 £26
3.10 £61
3.15 £8
3.20 £40
3.25 £128
3.30 £215
3.35 £12
3.40 £96
3.50 £250
3.65 £30
3.80 £96
3.85 £14
3.95 £80
4.00 £199
4.10 £210
4.20 £639
4.30 £48
4.40 £20
4.50 £129
4.60 £52
4.70 £120
4.90 £6
5.00 £118
5.10 £4
5.20 £112
5.30 £529
5.40 £150
5.50 £14
5.60 £42
5.70 £59
6.00 £5 £48
6.20 £74
7.20 £11
8.20 £9
8.40 £20
8.60 £148
8.80 £9
9.00 £39
9.20 £8
10.00 £0
11.00 £78
11.50 £12
12.00 £60
12.50 £20
13.50 £26
14.00 £115
14.50 £22
15.00 £63
15.50 £6
16.00 £115
16.50 £4
17.00 £108
17.50 £11
18.00 £60
18.50 £10
19.00 £285
19.50 £269
20.00 £472
21.00 £359
22.00 £397
23.00 £371
24.00 £222
25.00 £857
26.00 £1,591
27.00 £1,117
28.00 £190 £207 £5,729
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:44
1.45 PASS needs too much time to appraise
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:45
Kelso 3.35
1st 7 Waterski 11-2
2nd 9 Sierra Victor (IRE) 20-1
3rd 4 Lahib The Fifth (IRE) 8-1



Horse was very unlucky getting bumped near end of race.....stopped it winning maybe!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:49
3.50 - Megastar


COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1234.27 points
Available odds: 3.75 (betfair)
My odds: 9-4 (30.77 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 52.71 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:54
4.00 Pride In Battle

COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1234.27 points
Available odds: 3.75 (betfair)
My odds: 9-4 (30.77 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 50.46 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 14:59
Sandown 3.50
1st 7 Megastar 5-2 :D
2nd 12 Wayward Prince 25-1
3rd 8 Rebel Rebellion (IRE) 9-2
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 15:01
BANK before MEGASTAR winning was 1131.10 points

STAKE RETURN 52.71
WIN PROFIT MEGASTAR 52.71 X 2.75 - 5% 137.70
--------------------

COMPOUND ATTEMPTS BANK before next race 4.00 1321.51 points
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 15:03
4.05 PASS as a bit open and would take too long to weigh up
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 15:06
Pride In Battle IR odds in win market ...a close one.


1.10 £212
1.12 £292
1.14 £190
1.15 £36
1.16 £256
1.18 £6
1.20 £581
1.21 £2,634
1.22 £359
1.23 £853
1.25 £1,400
1.26 £121

1.30 £62
1.31 £1,049
1.32 £402
1.33 £154
1.34 £23
1.35 £72
1.36 £65
1.40 £1,403
1.41 £282
1.42 £120
1.43 £61
1.45 £32
1.48 £4
1.49 £22
1.50 £435
1.51 £238
1.52 £40
1.53 £365
1.55 £22
1.56 £88
1.57 £16
1.59 £857
1.60 £905
1.61 £313
1.62 £84
1.63 £357
1.64 £8 £264
1.65 £60
1.66 £2,408
1.67 £19 £82
1.70 £990
1.71 £10
1.75 £10
1.76 £13
1.77 £10
1.80 £518
1.81 £600
1.85 £24
1.88 £15
1.90 £282
1.92 £2
1.96 £20
1.99 £16
2.00 £1,981
2.02 £100
2.04 £76
2.10 £94
2.12 £110
2.14 £50
2.20 £896
2.22 £551
2.24 £46
2.26 £42
2.28 £180
2.30 £40
2.32 £187
2.34 £515
2.36 £54
2.38 £34
2.40 £473
2.42 £37
2.44 £222
2.46 £8
2.48 £320
2.50 £473
2.60 £411
2.64 £1,798
2.66 £173
2.68 £15
2.78 £5
2.82 £68
2.84 £19
2.86 £24
2.88 £1,133
2.90 £220
2.92 £107
2.94 £12
2.96 £12
2.98 £28
3.00 £1,081
3.05 £12
3.10 £155
3.15 £559
3.20 £570
3.25 £91
3.30 £14
3.35 £1
3.40 £23
3.45 £80
3.50 £1,048
3.55 £245
3.60 £5,430
3.65 £31,819
3.70 £31,531
3.75 £32,645
3.80 £9,548
3.84 £662 £1,878
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 15:07
Wincanton 4.00
1st 3 John's Gift 9-1
2nd 7 Pride In Battle (IRE) 5-2 :(
3rd 10 Valentine Vic (IRE) 10-11 F
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 07 Nov 09 15:09
STOPPING for day ....COMPOUND ATTEMPTS BANK now 1,321.51 points


The horse that was bumped late in race, costing it race, was worth over 500 points profit roughly....so a good day as came close to land a good odds one.

B T noooooooooooooooo
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:01
Feeling a bit lazy today , so likely only to "play" a FEW races.


1.20 Warrior One

COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1321.51 points
Available odds:11 (betfair)
My odds: 8-1 (11.11 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 23.17 points WIN

GL with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:05
1.30 - Constantius


COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1298.34 points before 111.20 race
Available odds:11 (betfair)
My odds: 8-1 (11.11 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE points WIN 22.76
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:12
1.40- Ameno


COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1275.58 points before 111.20 race
Available odds: 46 (betfair)
My odds: 25-1 (3.85 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 20.42 points

Due to nature of race, shape of race, will split stakes above between

WIN 10.42 points
SFC 5 points with 6-8
SFC 5 points with 2-8
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:16
1.50- King O'The Gypsies


COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1255.16 points before 1.20 race
Available odds:3.7 (betfair)
My odds: 9-4 (30.77 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 47.44 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:19
1.50 a 10 point SFC cover selection on Raduis Bleu to beat King O the Gypsies
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:26
Small movement on WARRIOR ONE IR .....no where near

6.08 £28
6.40 £17
6.60 £1
6.84 £1
7.03 £3
7.20 £4
7.22 £8
7.40 £2
7.41 £8
7.60 £73
7.98 £20
8.00 £14 £8
8.17 £14
8.20 £4 £37
8.36 £4
8.55 £14
8.60 £5
8.74 £21
8.80 £4 £4
8.93 £20
9.00 £5 £352
9.20 £821
9.40 £892
9.60 £2,446
9.80 £2,087 £380 £3,343
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:38
Constantius IR odds winmarket ...a close one.


1.26 £307
1.27 £0
1.28 £4
1.29 £8
1.30 £875
1.31 £4,787
1.32 £59
1.33 £67
1.34 £217
1.35 £194
1.36 £1,002
1.37 £686
1.38 £322

1.39 £208
1.40 £7 £3,910
1.41 £394
1.42 £298
1.43 £27
1.44 £262
1.45 £538
1.46 £27
1.48 £14
1.49 £112
1.50 £4,019
1.51 £198
1.52 £2,866
1.53 £888
1.54 £2,635
1.55 £271
1.56 £622
1.57 £153
1.58 £83
1.59 £184
1.60 £2,033
1.61 £493
1.62 £180
1.63 £1,043
1.64 £966
1.65 £899
1.66 £57
1.67 £181
1.70 £713
1.71 £40
1.72 £924
1.73 £74
1.74 £564
1.75 £1,405
1.77 £95
1.78 £389
1.79 £20
1.80 £864
1.81 £643
1.84 £6
1.85 £65
1.88 £14
1.90 £829
1.91 £52
1.92 £0
1.95 £332
1.97 £50
1.99 £47
2.00 £3,208
2.02 £1,100
2.04 £1,519
2.06 £699
2.08 £542
2.10 £3,458
2.12 £138
2.14 £346
2.18 £36
2.20 £2,139
2.22 £363
2.24 £23
2.26 £214
2.28 £37
2.30 £82
2.32 £201
2.34 £59
2.36 £68
2.40 £1,875
2.44 £302
2.46 £12
2.48 £76
2.50 £850
2.52 £420
2.54 £32
2.56 £92
2.58 £204
2.60 £22
2.62 £5 £27
2.64 £492
2.66 £309
2.68 £654
2.70 £136
2.72 £151
2.74 £65
2.76 £35
2.78 £36
2.80 £476
2.86 £1,033
2.88 £126
2.90 £3
2.96 £38
2.98 £12
3.00 £1,445
3.05 £28
3.10 £213
3.15 £37
3.20 £20
3.25 £160
3.30 £803
3.35 £114
3.40 £49
3.45 £92
3.50 £10
3.65 £6
3.75 £29
3.80 £54
3.85 £250
3.95 £47
4.00 £295
4.10 £485
4.20 £367
4.30 £6
4.40 £4
4.50 £30
4.60 £29
4.70 £8
4.80 £100
4.90 £76
5.00 £1,287
5.10 £36
5.30 £14
5.40 £105
5.50 £0
5.60 £9
5.70 £542
5.90 £272
6.00 £428
6.20 £24
6.40 £166
6.60 £133
6.80 £318
7.00 £0 £287
7.20 £336
7.40 £12
7.60 £77
7.80 £124
8.00 £241
8.20 £117
8.40 £506
8.60 £323
8.80 £323
9.00 £352
9.20 £203
9.40 £1,289
9.60 £1,651
9.80 £1,097
10.00 £1,380
10.50 £2,064
10.60 £4
11.00 £2,315
11.09 £10
11.50 £2,271
11.57 £4
12.00 £1,301
12.50 £415
13.00 £243
13.37 £262 £5,951
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 12:58
King Othe Gypsies another close one IR win market



1.34 £21 £225
1.35 £20
1.36 £982
1.37 £265
1.38 £548
1.39 £142
1.40 £13 £2,994
1.41 £32
1.42 £205
1.43 £60
1.44 £22
1.45 £47
1.46 £31
1.47 £60
1.49 £29
1.50 £602

1.51 £40
1.52 £10 £66
1.53 £869
1.55 £9 £114
1.59 £64
1.60 £54
1.61 £13
1.62 £185
1.63 £323
1.64 £291
1.65 £150
1.67 £58
1.69 £24
1.70 £38
1.71 £57
1.73 £7
1.76 £4
1.79 £120
1.80 £125
1.83 £2
1.85 £4
1.90 £12
2.00 £1,233
2.02 £160
2.04 £106
2.10 £1,495
2.12 £21
2.16 £138
2.20 £38
2.22 £43
2.24 £135
2.30 £420
2.32 £111
2.34 £14
2.40 £45
2.42 £222
2.46 £30
2.48 £80
2.50 £214
2.56 £32
2.57 £4
2.58 £6
2.59 £4
2.60 £32
2.62 £7
2.64 £25
2.70 £210
2.78 £248
2.80 £184
2.90 £64
2.98 £22
3.00 £285
3.05 £4
3.10 £5 £28
3.15 £57
3.19 £46
3.20 £441
3.25 £30
3.30 £14
3.33 £30
3.35 £27
3.37 £3
3.40 £4
3.41 £20
3.45 £12
3.46 £147
3.50 £65
3.55 £40
3.59 £4
3.60 £14
3.65 £16
3.68 £8
3.70 £176
3.75 £350
3.76 £12
3.80 £634
3.85 £799
3.90 £1,746
3.94 £19
3.95 £1,383
4.00 £2,201
4.03 £4
4.10 £2,469
4.11 £16
4.20 £1,660
4.30 £1,515
4.40 £576
4.50 £1,459
4.60 £908
4.70 £394
4.80 £1,831
4.90 £912
5.00 £1,811
5.10 £1,228
5.20 £1,410
5.30 £4,521
5.40 £6,082
5.50 £6,969
5.60 £6,466
5.70 £7,880
5.80 £7,611
5.90 £10,055
5.91 £1,202 £4,449
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 13:04
2.30 - Carthalawn

COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1197.72 points
Available odds: 7.4 (betfair)
My odds: 5-1 (16.67 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 35.51 points WIN


and SFC cover 10 points with BIG ZEB to beat Carthalawn
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 13:11
4.10 - HEAR MY SONG

COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1152.21 points
Available odds: 14 (betfair)
My odds: 8-1 (11.11 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 45.08 points WIN

Also, Cover SFC with Quetzal to beat Hear My Song for 15 points


Away to watch footy....not in mood today to do horse racing.....a couple close ones .....but still to hit a winner today :(

Gl with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 13:32
Carthalawn Betfair Starting Price: 11.600309
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 13:35
Carthalawn odds


5.70 £20
6.00 £169
6.20 £20
6.40 £1
6.60 £2
6.80 £9 £170
7.00 £633
7.20 £17 £764
7.40 £1,668
7.60 £1,804
7.80 £2,135

8.00 £1,372
8.20 £664
8.40 £498
8.60 £369
8.80 £153
9.00 £348
9.20 £99
9.40 £326
9.60 £466
9.80 £950
10.00 £565
10.50 £1,828
11.00 £3,063
11.50 £2,410
11.60 £94 £998
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 08 Nov 09 15:15
HEAR MY SONG at least did reduce in odds .....but ran poor race ..


5.80 £4
7.40 £20
7.60 £77
7.80 £415
8.00 £3 £250
8.20 £107
8.40 £258
8.60 £145
8.80 £76
9.00 £344
9.20 £392

9.40 £1 £241
9.60 £492
9.80 £717
10.00 £865
10.50 £666
11.00 £286
11.50 £358
12.00 £877
12.50 £618
13.00 £519
13.50 £273
14.00 £2 £692 £214 £2,124
By:
Muqbil
When: 11 Nov 09 12:04
Has this project been abandoned, DFC?
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 11 Nov 09 14:50
Hi M.......No.......have had a few things to do this week, so put on back-burner, without setting fire to it ]:)

Tomorrow and probably Friday I might still be preoccupied with "things to do"......but will be on thread on SATURDAY at latest.
ATTEMPT 1 was a loss of 1, 000 points.....ATTEMPT 2 , so far was up approx 1,090 points.......so going well enough on ATTEMPT 2 ( bearing in mind at least 500 points in A2 that are justa cost of me posting early ....otherwise would be over 1,600 points up on A2 etc )

Cheers the nooooooooooooooo
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 14 Nov 09 10:59
Have been betting with small stakes last couple days and finding plenty winners at good odds.....however, not been using KELLY CALCULATOR ( pity as would have been even more up !!!!).

I'm now convinced using KC is a bi plus for the type of selections I go for. The odds of winners last 2 days have included ( smaller odds ones have been ignored) -

Canni Thinkaar (IRE) 4-1 F
Jocheski (IRE) 7-1
11 Kashmina 7-2
Naomh Geileis (USA) 11-1
Ingleby Princess 50-1
Jack Luey 2-1
Bel Cantor 9-2
Razor Royale (IRE) 12-1

exacta 1st 1 Garde Champetre (FR) 4-6 F
2nd 8 Heads Onthe Ground (IRE) 18-1

Lord Ragnar (IRE) 11-1
Weird Al (IRE) 12-1
The Knoxs (IRE) 12-1
Smuglin 2-1 F
Willie Hall 9-2


The ones in bold above were my main selections on races.......Unfortunately I have written off chunks of profit IR ......Once I have my main bank in place ( early December), then the "confidence " will enable me to then use KC ......and not write off amounts IR.


The way I will probably operate in DECEMBER is use fully KELLY for initial calculation of stakes......but only use 25% stakes. After a "bad run" , say 20 losers in a row, I will then go to 50% KELLY stakes.....then to 75 % , then to 100%...........


The way I am now selecting winners , at good odds frequently, the above staking should work well......I hope.

WON'T BE POSTING HERE TODAY, AS WANT TO CONCENTRATE ON FOOTBALL AND HORSE RACING.....AND ALSO HAVE TO GO OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

GL with bets today
By:
Pinza
When: 14 Nov 09 22:16
DFC
"Delta" says we are both too intelligent

see - What do you do when having a bad run (Wayward Lad)
Horse Racing Forum

He is probably right though.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 14 Nov 09 22:35
How can you be too intelligent ?

Me thinks Delta is too big-headed ]:)
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