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Laying Football Teams Pre KO

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By:
Carson Yeung
When: 18 Aug 09 14:46
Gotta get my picks in early this evening. Have identified quite a few that I would conisider, but am only considering 4 as actual plays. Lay Fc Sheriff at home to Olympiacos in CL, Lay Leicester at Sheff U in the Championship & then Barrow at Mansfield & Ebbsfleet at Stevenage ( admittedly well over 6) both in the conference. The lays i considered were: Celtic, Wolves, Palace, Bristol City, Brighton, Crawley, Forest Green, Aldershot, Scunthorpe & Watford. GL all, hope you have a profitable evening.
By:
Dairymilk2009
When: 18 Aug 09 15:33
Must admit Carson, you're doing very well even without others help!! Personally, most of my Lays are Away Lays as I seemed to have more 'luck' with these...
By:
howardisawinker
When: 18 Aug 09 15:37
Hello Dairymilk, nice to see you here, I always enjoyed your posts as Doommeister, hope those giving you grief don't stop you posting!
By:
The One That Got Away
When: 18 Aug 09 15:58
Hi Carson,

Hope you dont mind but im going to post a few team lay bets if thats ok:

Aldershot 5.4
Barrow 5.9
Celtic 4.7
Doncaster 2.28
Morecambe 3.8
Plymouth 3.15
QPR 3.3
Queen Of The South 4.6
Shrewsbury 3.8
Sunderland 7.8
Watford 4.9
Wolves 6.0
York City 4.2

The 13 above are good lay bets imo, i will be laying each of them to a 'paper' laibility of 1pt each.

If i was to be extra careful with my selections from the above, my lays would be:

Sunderland 7.8
Wolves 6.0
Doncaster 2.28
Celtic 4.7

Lets hope for plenty of losers!! :-)
By:
The One That Got Away
When: 18 Aug 09 15:59
Hi Carson,

Hope you dont mind but im going to post a few team lay bets if thats ok:

Aldershot 5.4
Barrow 5.9
Celtic 4.7
Doncaster 2.28
Morecambe 3.8
Plymouth 3.15
QPR 3.3
Queen Of The South 4.6
Shrewsbury 3.8
Sunderland 7.8
Watford 4.9
Wolves 6.0
York City 4.2

The 13 above are good lay bets imo, i will be laying each of them to a 'paper' laibility of 1pt each.

If i was to be extra careful with my selections from the above, my lays would be:

Sunderland 7.8
Wolves 6.0
Doncaster 2.28
Celtic 4.7

Lets hope for plenty of losers!! :-)
By:
edgewinder
When: 18 Aug 09 16:32
I would definitely be wary about laying Sunderland personally at the odds on offer

Barrow 5.7
Cambridge 2.12
Grimsby 3.65
Cheltenham 4.00

All look reasonable lays to me
By:
Boraka
When: 18 Aug 09 16:34
what sort of money are you guys laying these at?
By:
edgewinder
When: 18 Aug 09 16:40
original poster laying for £100 profit
By:
edgewinder
When: 18 Aug 09 16:41
*per lay
By:
Tony Broke
When: 18 Aug 09 17:04
lay the following


sheriff

celtic

barrow

c palace

sunderland

leicester
By:
The One That Got Away
When: 18 Aug 09 22:27
Hi Carson,

Hope you dont mind but im going to post a few team lay bets if thats ok:

Aldershot 5.4 WON 1pt
Barrow 5.9 WON 1pt
Celtic 4.7 WON 1pt
Doncaster 2.28 WON 1pt
Morecambe 3.8 WON 1pt
Plymouth 3.15 WON 1pt
QPR 3.3 WON 1pt
Queen Of The South 4.6 WON 1pt
Shrewsbury 3.8 WON 1pt
Sunderland 7.8 WON 1pt
Watford 4.9 LOST -3.9pts
Wolves 6.0 LOST 5pts
York City 4.2 WON 1pt

2.1 pts PROFIT :-)

The 13 above are good lay bets imo, i will be laying each of them to a 'paper' laibility of 1pt each.

If i was to be extra careful with my selections from the above, my lays would be:

Sunderland 7.8 WON 1pt
Wolves 6.0 LOST 5pts
Doncaster 2.28 WON 1pt
Celtic 4.7 WON 1pt

-2pts LOSS :-(

Lets hope for plenty of losers!!
By:
Dairymilk2009
When: 19 Aug 09 03:27
Guys be extra careful if playing for real, yeah?? Although you have double the chance of winning you win less this way for larger liabilitys!!
Personally, I won't be putting up my Lays until 5 Home / 5 Away games have been played as I have a system that I adhere to...
But Good Luck!!
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 19 Aug 09 07:21
Good Morning all. TOTGA, you are more than welcome to post your selections as is anyone else. That is what I hoped would happen with this thread, so I could see how others get on & what sort of selections they make, hopefully spot some things that help me.

Yesterday was a better day for me, getting back on track, though things weren t looking to good at Bramall Lane for a while.

The four successful lays from yesterday take me back to up 28.6points.

Will post some lays up later on. Off to St Andrews tonight to see if Blues can build on the positive performance at OT on Sunday. I think after tonight & saturday we will have a much better idea if we have any chance of survival. Good luck to everyone this evening.
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 19 Aug 09 10:01
Lay Nigata in J League
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 19 Aug 09 10:54
Full List of Lays so far:

Bet 1. Lay Polonia Warsaw at Breda WON 100 (100)
Bet 2. Lay Cherno More v PSV WON 100 ( 200)
Bet 3. Lay Ahlen at St Pauli WON 100 (300)
Bet 4. Lay Sheff Utd at Boro WON 100 (400)
Bet 5. Lay Stuttgart at Wolfsburg WON 100 (500)
Bet 6. Lay Bristol City at Preston WON 100 (600)
Bet 7. Lay Barnsley at Sheff Wed WON 100 (700)
Bet 8. Lay Scunthorpe at Cardiff WON 100 (800)
Bet 9. Lay Newcastle at WBA WON 100 (900)
Bet 10. Lay Kladno v Mlada WON 100 (1000)
Bet 11. Lay Hansa Rostock at Bielfield WON 100 (1100)
Bet 12. Lay Darlington v Leeds WON 100 (1200)
Bet 13. Lay Grays at Histon WON 100 (1300)
Bet 14. Lay Hayes & Yeading v Stevenage WON 100 (1400)
Bet 15. Lay Bury v WBA WON 100 (1500)
Bet 16. Lay Scotland at Norway WON 100 (1600)
Bet 17. Lay Belarus v Croatia WON 100 (1700)
Bet 18. Lay USA at Mexico WON 100 (1800)
Bet 19. Lay Trolhatten at Vasby WON 100 (1900)
Bet 20. Lay Newcastle Jets at Central Coast WON 100 (2000)
Bet 21. Lay Arka Gdynia at Ruch Chorzow WON 100 (2100)
Bet 22. Lay FSV Frankfurt at Greher Furth WON 100 (2200)
Bet 23. Lay Fc Slovacko at Brno WON 100 (2300)
Bet 24. Lay Istres at Metz WON 100 (2400)
Bet 25. Lay Wigan at Villa LOST 540 (1860)
Bet 26. Lay Burnley at Stoke WON 100 (1960)
Bet 27. Lay Blackburn v Man City WON 100 (2060)
Bet 28. Lay Crystal Palace at Bristol City WON 100 (2160)
Bet 29. Lay Leicester at Ipswich WON 100 (2260)
Bet 30. Lay Watford at Sheff United WON 100 (2360)
Bet 31. Lay Carlsile at Millwall WON 100 (2460)
Bet 32. Lay Yeovil at Colchester WON 100 (2560)
Bet 33. Lay Forest Green at York WON 100 (2660)
Bet 34. Lay Werder Bremen at Bayern WON 100 (2760)
Bet 35. Lay St Etienne at Tolouse WON 100 (2860)
Bet 36. Lay Bochum at Schalke WON 100 (2960)
Bet 37. Lay Lille at Marseille WON 100 (3060)
Bet 38. Lay Banik Ostrava at Jablonec WON 100 (3160)
Bet 39. Lay BK Hacken at Malmo LOST 400 (2760)
Bet 40. Lay Setubal V Guimares WON 100 (2860)
Bet 41. Lay St Pauli at Aachen LOST 400 (2460)
Bet 42. Lay Leicester at Sheff Utd WON 100 (2560)
Bet 43. Lay Sheriff v Olimpiacos WON 100 (2660)
Bet 44. Lay Ebbsfleet at Stevenage WON 100 (2760)
Bet 45. Lay Barrow at Mansfield WON 100 (2860)
Bet 46. Lay Nigata v Osaka at 3.35 ????
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 19 Aug 09 11:54
Bet 46. Lay Nigata v Osaka at 3.35 WON 100 (2960)
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 19 Aug 09 14:25
Bet 47. Lay FC Nordsj at AaB at 5.0 ????
By:
The One That Got Away
When: 19 Aug 09 14:46
(01) Lay Aldershot 5.4 v Bournemouth WON 100 (+100)
(02) Lay Barrow 5.9 v Mansfield WON 100 (+200)
(03) Lay Celtic 4.7 v Arsenal WON 100 (+300)
(04) Lay Doncaster 2.28 v Coventry WON 100 (+400)
(05) Lay Morecambe 3.8 v Barnet WON 100 (+500)
(06) Lay Plymouth 3.15 v Cardiff WON 100 (+600)
(07) Lay QPR 3.3 v Bristol City WON 100 (+700)
(08) Lay Queen Of The South 4.6 V Airdrie WON 100 (+800)
(09) Lay Shrewsbury 3.8 v Dagenham WON 100 (+900)
(10) Lay Sunderland 7.8 v Chelsea WON 100 (+1000)
(11) Lay Watford 4.9 v Notts Forest LOST -390 (+610)
(12) Lay Wolves 6.0 v Wigan LOST -500 (+110)
(13) Lay York City 4.2 v Wrexham WON 100 (+210)
(14) Lay Hull v Spurs @ 4.5
(15) Lay Anderlecht v Lyon @ 7.6
(16) Lay Sheff Wed v Newcastle @ 5.8
(17) Lay Maccabi Haifa v Red Bull Salzburg @ 5.5
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 19 Aug 09 14:54
Hi TOTGA, Think everything you have selected for tonight I have looked at and am likley to go with also. Are you playing for real here or just testing?
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 19 Aug 09 15:16
Bet 48. Lay Hull v Tottenham at 4.2
Bet 49. Lay Anderlecht at Lyon at 7.6 ( over my 6 threshold, but have decided to be more flexible on that!!)
Bet 50. Lay Sheff Wed at Newcastle at 6.0
Bet 51. Lay Burnley v Man Utd at 11.0 ( might live to regret this one, but certasinly hope not)

Good Luck all. Off for few beers now, before hopefully seeing "Chucho" making a goalscoring full debut!!
By:
The One That Got Away
When: 19 Aug 09 15:19
Hi Carson, not playing for real at the mo, may look at it on a smaller scale though, will probably see how i fair after a few more bets.

Too busy with the CS lays at the moment but if this is profitable then it will become my next venture! :-)

I shall also be laying Burnley and Stoke, will include these later.
By:
Sexual Harassment Panda
When: 19 Aug 09 17:34
Looking good Carson, will you ever get involved in IP lays? Such as Hull were around 6's and Sunderland around 3's when 1-0 up against Chelsea. Just something to think about maybe :)
By:
The One That Got Away
When: 19 Aug 09 19:53
(01) Lay Aldershot 5.4 v Bournemouth WON 100 (+100)
(02) Lay Barrow 5.9 v Mansfield WON 100 (+200)
(03) Lay Celtic 4.7 v Arsenal WON 100 (+300)
(04) Lay Doncaster 2.28 v Coventry WON 100 (+400)
(05) Lay Morecambe 3.8 v Barnet WON 100 (+500)
(06) Lay Plymouth 3.15 v Cardiff WON 100 (+600)
(07) Lay QPR 3.3 v Bristol City WON 100 (+700)
(08) Lay Queen Of The South 4.6 V Airdrie WON 100 (+800)
(09) Lay Shrewsbury 3.8 v Dagenham WON 100 (+900)
(10) Lay Sunderland 7.8 v Chelsea WON 100 (+1000)
(11) Lay Watford 4.9 v Notts Forest LOST -390 (+610)
(12) Lay Wolves 6.0 v Wigan LOST -500 (+110)
(13) Lay York City 4.2 v Wrexham WON 100 (+210)
(14) Lay Hull v Spurs @ 4.5
(15) Lay Anderlecht v Lyon @ 7.6
(16) Lay Sheff Wed v Newcastle @ 5.8
(17) Lay Maccabi Haifa v Red Bull Salzburg @ 5.5
(18) Lay IP Burnley v Man Utd @ 2.86
By:
Danny Boi
When: 19 Aug 09 22:53
Burnley shocker!

Guess this is a good reminder to stick within your set odds parameter when u go live carson?
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 07:55
Good Morning All. Danny, you are right there. I think 1 of the problems I have historically had, no doubt same as many, is deviating from my own rules, which are set for the reason to protect me. Lesson learnt, I hope!! Glad it wasn t a real £1000 down on that, but I still felt gutted, it even took a bit of the shine of Birminghams last minute winner. Wasn t able to get online yesterday to do any research, so at least stuck to another of my rules & didn t make any random selections. Never seem to do that well in the first leg of UEFA ties anyway, I find it a bit difficult to get info on some of the teams. Hopefully find some selections later on. Onwards & Upwards. Good Luck to all playing.
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 07:58
Panda, I can defiantlely see the potential profit in playing IR. However, in the past I have had my problems with making impulsive decisions IR. I feel my edge lies in doing the research & making the decison pre KO. I know I will get some wrong & I know I will miss opportunities, but I think doing it this way, long term, will be best for me. Afterall, there are many way to win (& lose) on betfair & its just about finding what works for you.
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 08:02
Bet 47. Lay FC Nordsj at AaB at 5.0 WON 100 (3060)
Bet 48. Lay Hull v Tottenham at 4.2 WON 100 (3160)
Bet 49. Lay Anderlecht at Lyon at 7.6 WON 100 (3260)
Bet 50. Lay Sheff Wed at Newcastle at 6.0 WON 100 (3360)
Bet 51. Lay Burnley v Man Utd at 11.0 LOST 1000 (2360)

Costly that Bet 51, oh well, you live & you learn.
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 08:20
From what I can tell, admittedly have binned some of the paper notes I have made, but if I discount everything above 6, as had originally intended ( naughty boy!!),

Istres at Metz 100
Wigan at Villa -540
Bochum at Schalke 100
Ebbsfleet at Stevenage 100
Anderlecht at Lyon 100
Burnely v Man Utd -1000

I would be another £1240 in profit. Now I know this is still a very small sample, but I would suggest it says that my skills don t lie in picking teams to lay at odds greater than 6.0!!
By:
Reyes
When: 21 Aug 09 08:31
or back at over 10 CY :)

gl
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 08:58
Cheers Reyes. Think I would find it difficult though, its almost like its against my psyche to back an underdog. Must come from watching the Underdog Birmingham City all these years, and them never really getting a lot!!
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 09:06
Bet 52. Lay Adelaide v Goldocast at 2.78 ????
By:
lippy
When: 21 Aug 09 09:12
whats the reasoning behind that one? Given your normally picking premier league games im curious to know why you are such an expert on our local A-league
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 09:19
Lippy, just scanning through all the sites I can to try & get as much info as possible. I would never claim to be an expert on the A league, if any league. What I do is try & analise all the info available to me & make a decison based on that. It may be right it may be wrong. My theory is that more often than not, the resrach I do will give me an edge over others who do not reserach as fully as what I fell i do.
By:
lippy
When: 21 Aug 09 09:22
Ok fair enough , although i suspect your being rather optimistic in assuming looking through a few websites will give you an edge over other market makers on an A league match
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 09:27
At the end of the day lippy, this thread is all about learning. I may quite quickly find out what you say is correct, and if that is the case I will have to leave the A league alone. As things stand at the momment, I am not at risk of losing any money & I have the time to try and work out my strategy. Its all working towards when I eventually go live, and hopefully by then I will have learnt from my successes & my mistakes. Just out of interest, what is your opinion on the game?
By:
lippy
When: 21 Aug 09 09:33
For what its worth i think you will probably win this bet , however this will be by far the hardest match the gold coast has had this season. Big travelling distances in Australia for the away games, could make all the difference.

I like Shane Smeltz though , the gold coast striker , watched him sevweral times last season when he played here in NZ for the wellington Pheonix
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 09:39
It seems to me that Gold Coast are the Hoffenheim of the A League. I know they fell away in the end, but they kept it going a lot longer than anyone expected. I feel that everyone likes to right off a "new player" as they just fear change etc!! Same here with Man City, of course they may not gel, but if they do with all that talent. To me the difference with City and other new comers is how the amazing publicity affects their prices, not the same with lesser known nouveau rich etc.
By:
lippy
When: 21 Aug 09 09:42
Good luck for the game. Many of them are live here on tv , this one isnt unfortunately , it all rugby league and cricket tonight
By:
magyar...overdose!
When: 21 Aug 09 10:18
good start gc 1-0
By:
Carson Yeung
When: 21 Aug 09 12:04
Bet 52. Lay Adelaide v Goldcoast at 2.78 WON 100 (2460)
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