General Betting
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...Laying those for the past few days ,would have "cleaned" up .Have been away for quite a while - they seem to be getting worse/better ; dependent if you are backing/laying ! Expect some of you have filled your boots ! ...or have these been exceptional results ? , as I said have been off for a fair time.
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Replies: 69
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If you'd layed the full table of 52 for Sat / Sund / Mond you'd have lost 64pts based on betfair returned sp.
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Hayden - thanks ; BUT what about just the bottom 10 ?
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no idea mate tbh don't look at who is where , sorry
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the 22nd Oct you'd have lost 44pts on the day just to throw another one in.
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Hayden - thanks again for your input. So not so good then ! I must have looked ( today ) and that was a " one off " ! ...back to the drawing board ,yet again !...
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just for the record you'd have won 18pts today if playing the full table , hardly worth commenting really tbh as each to their own filters.
good luck |
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Hayden - cheers ; agree about filters.
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I've looked at this a bit, and my impression is that the bottom guys are picking longer-priced selections, so the overround will hit them harder at industry SP, and so they look bad in the naps table.
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ive tried the bottom 5 bottom 10 bottom 15 a few times,,STARTED OFF WINNING THEN LOOSEING THE LOT ,
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Yawn , its a system as old as betfair itself , has been extensively debated on these forums probably around 2003.
Some claimed it was profitable others that the higher betfair lay odds made it not so |
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Thank god for lippy!
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A more sensible strategy may be to lay what are generally known as notebook horses.
Just make sure the notebook is widely read and you've got a ready made source of likely false priced favourites if they reappear within 28 days of their notebook run. |
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Try laying the bottom 20 of betfair naps competition, division 3, before they lose interest and drop out. ;)
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newoldboy, many have looked at it. Some say they still do.
But you will find that some of them will be putting up ew selections at long odds and every once in a while they come in. There are no click and win systems on betfair. |
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Tightfisted
Do you mind? That's me you're talking about. :^0 |
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I just thought I'd keep the thread on track... notebooks !!!! ;)
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Laying the nap boys is a gold mine .. why on a good day they have 40 losers . seen em plenty of times only have 4 or 5 wins .. rest got Beat .. yesterday they had 11 Wins ........42 got beat ...... its all there in black and white ... season just finished only 8 showed a profit the other 46 were in the red .. and by the way them 8 profit clubed together would not pay for the Racing Post .. now bout £600 quid a year ...I rest my case My Lord .
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Heres another one for you stats boys .. Take the most pop nap of the day see signpost .. showing a loss on the year 32 points but take today Tafaool 6 naps .. should it win or loss they only add 1 point ... too the full amount this year any year they are losing thousands ... not 32 points .. just for the record zip lays the nag to the full amount .. and if i dont fancy the nag i will lay the horse for more ..
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Thanks all for your input ; I reckon systematically and being around at race times this is a golden egg opportunity...
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lots of different filters have been suggested on here but all have stuttered as they haven't appeared to have any logic to support the stats they claim , to filter on stats alone is wrong and it will stutter and in most cases induce a tweak of the filter , before you know it you can't remember what worked at what didn't as you've " tweaked to suit " that many times , my filter has abeen applied untouched for 26 months now but has industry logic to support the stats and let's see how it pans out.
good luck if you're playing. |
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Hayden - what are your thoughts on a " martingale " type of system ? ... albeit one would have to be there during racing ie .not just select and place bet in the morning and forget about it for the day.
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no problem being here all day tbh as i'm full time but the martingale isn't for me , the beauty about systems with logical reasons why they work to support stats is that you can look at one cumulative p/l because you know you have both logic and stats on your side , how I perform on a daily basis is of no relevance to me as I only ever look at one long term figure , if you start looking at things daily it will affect all aspects of your betting and the bets dictate to you rather than the other way around.
good luck mate. |
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Hayden .. see you joined in 2002 about the same time as me (zipper ) I like what you say about the long term ... could not have put it better myself ... good luck to you and very well said .... zip will watch your post with interest ........
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zipper, the figs in the table are at ISP, we can't lay at those prices.
I've seen your posts before, and reckon your success is due to the judgments you make about which ones to lay. |
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Moon light I dont F all about isp its all about judgement see this 3.50 Tafool 6 naps the danger big bay 1 nap ... no naps on the others but there all in the dustbin
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Another most pop nap of the day gets stuffed ...... sorry to the last poster but i did not have time to post ...... when i was on the machine it was allready off . but you get the drift .... re these Nap Boys ... anyhow 4.00pm thats zip out .. with the cash ... talk tomorrow ... good luck if you carry on ..
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I dont understand those last two posts, either i have a bad hangover or your talking in a different language.
I used to run that competition , in fact i was the one who started the whole thing off , Zipper is correct in that most people made a loss , however as has been pointed out the results were worked out at starting price , not befair price. Commision plus higher lay price , and possible premium charge would make a huge difference imo |
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Maybe this might help, most popular nap from naps table (I left out days when only 2 selections)
Date...sel..W...BSP....X sel....P / L ...Most Popular nap 01Oct...7...0...1.76...-7.00 ...-7.00 ...Manifest 02Oct...9...1...4.22...27.51 ...20.51 ...Special Duty 03Oct...7...0...2.24...-7.00 ...13.51 ...Ghanaati 04Oct...12...1...1.44..+5.02 ...18.53 ...Press The Button 05Oct...5...0...2.52...-5.00 ...13.53 ...Sham Sheer 06Oct...7...1...1.65...+4.32 ...17.85 ...Highland Glen 06Oct...7...0...3.35...-7.00 ...10.85 ...Zero Money 07Oct...3...1...1.95...+2.72 ...13.57 ...Cool Friend 07Oct...3...0...4.10...-3.00 ...10.57 ...Nimue 07Oct...3...0...2.84...-3.00 ....7.57 ...Goodwood Maestro 07Oct...3...0...6.80...-3.00 ....4.57 ...Newton Circus 07Oct...3...0...3.12...-3.00 ....1.57 ...French Art 08Oct...3...1...3.45...+6.98 ....8.55 ...Noafal 09Oct...3...1...3.55...+7.27 ...15.82 ...Timepiece 09Oct...3...0...2.80...-3.00 ...12.82 ...Middleton Dene 09Oct...3...0...7.60...-3.00 ....9.82 ...Blizzard Blues 09Oct...3...1...7.52...18.58 ...28.40 ...Felday 09Oct...3...0...2.93...-3.00 ...25.40 ...Native City 09Oct...3...0...2.45...-3.00 ...22.40 ...Worth A King´S 11Oct...4...0...5.50...-4.00 ...18.40 ...Prescription 12Oct...6...0...3.99...-6.00 ...12.40 ...Secrecy 13Oct...3...1...1.67...+1.91 ...14.31 ...Hafawa 13Oct...3...0...3.93...-3.00 ...11.31 ...Outland 13Oct...3...1...2.93...+5.50 ...16.81 ...Toby Jug 13Oct...3...1...1.73...+2.08 ...18.89 ...Botanist 14Oct...6...0...3.08...-6.00 ...12.89 ...Ingenue 15Oct...4...0...1.87...-4.00 ....8.89 ...Penang Princess 16Oct...3...0...5.78...-3.00 ....5.89 ...Gripsholm Castle 16Oct...3...0...5.00...-3.00 ....2.89 ...Maljimar 17Oct...3...0...5.71...-3.00 ...-0.11 ...Chabal 17Oct...3...0...7.91...-3.00 ...-3.11 ...Silver Grecian 17Oct...3...0..14.50...-3.00 ...-6.11 ...Alanbrooke 17Oct...3...0..22.70...-3.00 ...-9.11 ...Dayia 18Oct...7...0...2.08...-7.00 ..-16.11 ...Australia Day 19Oct...6...0...2.52...-6.00 ..-22.11 ...Hot Prospect 20Oct...4...1...1.23...+0.87 ..-21.23 ...Tataniano NIC 20Oct...4...1...2.00...+3.80 ..-17.43 ...Rule Of Nature SMS 21Oct...8...1...1.37...+2.81 ..-14.62 ...Pride Of Dulcote 22Oct...3...0...3.13...-3.00 ..-17.62 ...Doeslessthanme 22Oct...3...1...8.80...22.23 ....4.61 ...Description 22Oct...3...0...3.44...-3.00 ....1.61 ...The Whisperer 22Oct...3...1...2.99...+5.67 ....7.28 ...Zorro De La Vega 23Oct...6...0...2.56...-6.00 ....1.28 ...Tanfidh TRG 24Oct...6...1...2.65...+9.41 ...10.68 ...St Nicholas Abbey OB 25Oct...5...1...4.90...18.53 ...29.21 ...Toby Jug 26Oct...5...0...4.80...-5.00 ...24.21 ...Humidor 27Oct...6...0...1.52...-6.00 ...18.21 ...Longliner SMS 28Oct...6...0...2.21...-6.00 ...12.21 ...Tafaool TRG Back 12.21 Points profit @ BSP Back +1.04 Points profit @ ISP LAY -26.50 Points LOSS @ BSP It looks as though they've got October's form sussed. |
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Hard to argue with cold hard facts.
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Tightfist your figs are correct .. but were we differ Zip does not back em all or lay em all take yesterday i said i would lay the nag and i did and it lost .. you ok with that .. but today 5.30 wolver Todber most pop nap 8 .. zips a backer why it cannot get beat .. and thats a very bold statement in a handicap .. but take a look at the FORM ...... you have to have opinions .. and zip has plenty ... same with the nap boys ... back some .. lay some .. some leave alone .... its only a bit of fun .....Form will beat any know system out of sight over a period of time ...
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Heres one for you Tightfist ... do you know anything about odds .. See this Todber when betting opens up it will look like the Grand National .. 10/1 bar one .
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Zip , what happened to your aversion to lower grade races ?
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Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Todber 2. Leading Edge 3. Charles Darwin Todber has won 3 of her last 5 starts and hasn't finished yet, able to race off the same mark as when successful at Kempton on Saturday. The well-treated Leading Edge looks most likely to threaten her supremacy, with Charles Darwin a fair bet for the minor honours. Forecast 5.5 Todber , 7.6 Leading Edge , 10 Mayoman , 10 Charles Darwin , 11 Yanza , 13 Milldown Story , 13 Shakespeare's Son , 15 Romantic Queen , 17 Loyal Royal , 21 Perlachy , 29 Golden Dixie , 34 Timber Treasure , 34 Weekend Away You seem to know better than BF, Zippo. I'm going to lay it just in case the jockey makes a mess of the start, gets boxed in, filly gone in coat, the Channon factor etc, the usual gremlins on the layers' side. |
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Werbie some days there nowt but dross running ... and i need turnover ... if your waiting for See The Stars type .... you will have about 20 bets per year ...... thats what happened ........................
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Tightfist ........ Timeform Dont back or lay Horses .. They make their money selling nonsense to mugs like you .....
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Big p Little p ... should do better .. needs more time ........ need i go on Timeform my ///////////
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Hey a few years ago TOMMO work for Timeform .. and we all know how good he is at picking winners .. HO Ho Ho ........
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Lay away Tightfist ... Us backers need layers ... and when we Back we need layers .. thats how Betfair works .......easy pessy .........
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Got to go now dont forget back the winners ....... lay the bums .... and there are loads of bums today
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