Freelance

Here we are at the end of Day 2 and this Test match is already nearly over.  After predicting a decent Australian total for the 1st innings I was wearing a bit of egg on the face when the Aussies struggled on Day 1, but the poor quality of the pitch really put this effort into perspective on Day 2 when the Sri Lankans brittle batting lineup fared even worse.

Pre-game I couldn't understand why the media was reporting the pitch as a raging turner, yet the markets had the Draw as odds on favourite.  In those situations I usually trust the markets over the media, but I don't think anyone foresaw such a poor strip for cricket.

Personally, I find it disgraceful and the general state of the ground that this match is being played on just as bad.  It seems indicative of the state of Sri Lankan cricket at the moment - it is on the decline and showing signs of decay.

That said, I'm happy to see Clark playing the spin well and Ponting is still showing glimpses of form but hasn't quite clicked yet.  Dissappointed for Khawaja who has a very tough assignment to score runs in these conditions and he may be punished unfairly by the selectors for it.  Lyon would obviously be very happy with his wickets, but even Michael Clark could get a 6-for in these types of dusty conditions so I don't read too much into it.

Australia are now paying 1.19 and so I'm taking the opportunity to green-up and cover my exposures though I will still have a substantial green on Australia.  I would not be surprised to see Australia fold before lunch on Day 3 and Sri Lanka to follow suit before stumps, but there is always a chance that someone like Sangakarra or Jayawardene could dig in and make a game of this.

I hope the ground and pitch is better for the 2nd test at Pallekele.

It's been a while since Australia played Test cricket and a lot has changed since the Ashes, with such scrutiny and soul searching in Australian cricket recently there is no doubt that Australia will be hungry to prove itself and re-establish it's credibility as a cricketing power house.

Clark has proven he has leadership potential and has a good brain for cricket which is so much more important in Test cricket.  With Ponting showing glimpses of a form resurgence over the ODIs these two look determined to prove they aren't yesterdays men.  I'd expect both of them to have a strong series in Sri Lanka with Clark generally a good player of spin and with Ponting no longer burdened by the captaincy he will be able to focus on his batting.

I'm not convinced about Hughes selection as opener, but am excited by the prospect of Marsh/Khawaja in No.6.  I prefer the latter, but think that whomever is selected will account for themselves if the top order lays a solid foundation and they can come in at 300+ to play their natural game without scoreboard pressure.

The odds look interesting with the draw so heavily favoured even though the media is reporting the pitch as being a raging turner.  The Sri Lankan attack looks weak to me, especially in the pace/seam department and their batting lineup seems a bit brittle too.  If the recent England series is anything to go by the Sri Lankans are on the slide and are going to struggle.

I'm backing Australia pre-match at 3.75 and laying a small chunk of the draw, plus a larger chunk of Sri Lanka.  If Australia get to bat first I'd expect a grafting day 1 score of 3/250+ and the draw price could easily be sub 1.50 after the 1st day where I'll be looking to lay more of the draw at the close of the Australian 1st innings.

I didn't blog before the start of the 3rd India vs England test because I didn't have a lot to say.  The prices were about right and while I favoured England, I was very tempted not to back them because thier price was almost too short.  Having said that, you might be surprised as to the reason why I am posting now.

Pre-game England were around 2.40 and after Day 1 they dismissed India cheaply to finish at around 1.36.  All seemed reasonable and sensible so far.  Then comes Day 2 where India are completely dominated again.  England playing smart cricket with discipline and determination to get to 456/3 with a lead of 232 runs and 7 wickets after just 2 days.  India showing further signs of capitulation and demoralisation with poor fielding and dropped catches.....yet after another one sided day the England price has only shortened to 1.24 ?

I normally don't touch the short odds, and certainly am very wary of reccommending others to take them, but the market has got this horribly wrong.  I can see Cook starting cautiously again on Day 3, focused and determined to get his 200.  Once he's got his eye back in he is even a chance of getting to 300 the way things are going and England are well placed to bat another 2 to 2.5 sessions on Day 3 to build a 500 run lead.  Weather permitting, that then gives England maybe 6.5 sessions to bowl out India on a track which is starting to deteriorate and turn.  Keep in mind that India hasn't yet posted 300 in 5 innings this series....

The only thing that can save India is rain, but there would have to be days of it.  In reality I wouldn't be surprised to see this match end on Day 4 with an Innings Victory for England.  There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in sport, but this 1.24 on a team that is utterly dominating after 2 days is just too good to pass up.

After the recent demise of St George Illawarra as competition favourites in the NRL I've been asking myself who the *real* contender is for this years premiership.  It's that time in the year as the regular season begins "the run home" when teams are gearing up for finals football and form-lines become all that more important.

For me there is a standout, and that is the Manly Sea Eagles.  This team is well coached, disciplined and is very well rounded with solid performers in all positions.  The intensity which they maintained last week against a struggling, yet determined and improvings Rooster outfit showed off thier professionalism and strong desire to be serious title contenders this year.  They also have a coach and senior players who have won the premiership before.  Compared to St George and Melbourne, who are having a tendency to "clock off" or drop intensity, this Manly team is currently excellent value at 5.50 to win the premiership.

Melbourne may be favourites, and they do have the super-stars in their team who are capable of the odd piece of individual brilliance, but in my opinion they are unbalanced.  They have average players in some positions and therefore "chinks in the armour" which can be exploited.  (See my other blog post for the reasons why St George won't win - and that was posted before they choked against the Tigers).  Meanwhile, the only weakness I see in Manly is some inexperience in the halves.  I have no doubt that Foran will step up because this kid is a brilliant, natural footballer, but while Cherry-Evans has been a great find this year for Manly and is an emerging talent, he shows some glimpses of being vulnerable under pressure situations and his position is critically important.

My strategy is therefore to back Manly now at the juicy price of 5.50 before the rest of the punters out there realise this team is building up for something big on the run home.  Once they dispose of whichever hapless team they come up against in the preliminary final, I should be able to lay off half my stake at sub 3.20.  Once they make the Grand Final I'll lay off the rest of my stake by which time I wouldn't be surprised for them to be favourites at sub 2.00.  Then I'll kick back on Grand Final day and enjoy the game, still with a big fat green on Manly to win but with no downside exposure - hoping that the young gun Manly halves can hold thier nerve and realise thier potential.

It hurts me to say it because I'm one of the biggest fans of the St George Illawarra Dragons, but after watching them at WIN Stadium today on a beautiful sunny Sunday afternoon I've come to the realisation that the Dragons CAN NOT win back-to-back Premierships in 2011.

In consecutive weeks they have been cruelled by Canberra and Souths, two teams in the bottom half of the ladder and the Dragons weaknesses have been exposed for all to see.

The first thing the Dragons have lost is the killer instinct.  After rushing to a 20-0 lead after 20 minutes at home against a lethargic Souths side, the opportunity was there to put the helpless bunnies to the sword and a 50 point flogging was on the cards.  However, instead of driving home the advantage the Dragons started kicking defensively for the line and throwing silly passes.

The second thing they've lost is their discipline.  You could forgive a couple of crazy passes when winning 20-0, but the number of errors and general brain explosions which bombed try-scoring opporuntities or gave Souths advantage is testament to their poor state-of-mind. 

Next up is their defensive structure.  Earlier in the year the "red brick wall" was the pride of the league, but now the back 3 are struggling to co-ordinate and defensive lapses are becoming commonplace.  You could forgive this due to the disruption the team has had from a changing line-up during the rep season, and while I expect it will improve over the next few weeks there are some serious chinks in the armour which have been exploited.  They are really missing Jeremy Smith and Neville Costigan who are excelling at their new clubs.

Finally, and most importantly, the Dragons have lost their composure.  Normally the team is confident, focused and love nothing more than leading from the front and strangling the live out of teams in an arm-wrestle competition, but now they are looking like a nervous team who can't close out a match.  The last two games the Dragons have been in front and choked in spectacular fashion.  Today it was a kick-off that was allowed to go out at the 5 metre mark with only minutes remaining.  This lack of composure, more than the points above, will cost dearly when the finals begin.  The Dragons may not even win a finals match this year and may well repeat their 2009 early exit.

It probably sounds like I'm just a jaded Dragons fan who's pissed off after a loss, but I know this team pretty well and there are times when you've got to listen to your head and not your heart.  As soon as the game was over I laid off a chunk of my pre-season position at 4.50, because I know that by the time the rest of the world watches the delayed channel 9 telecast and the post-game analysis sinks in they will drift even further.

This is turning out to be another cracker of a test match.  Unfortunately I'm not a nocturnal creature, so I'm not watching the bulk of it live from Australia, but with two of the top teams slugging it out in an even test series this is as good as it gets for cricket.

India were looking right on target at 267/4 late in the day and England must have drifted out past 11.0 in the markets, but a new ball and some magic from Broad prompted India to follow the English batting collapse and show how it's done with a 6 for 21 debacle.  I'm not entirely surprised, I just wish it happenned on the morning on Day 3

So, a missed opportunity last night sees England at 2.74 and England at 1.90 which is still slightly better than the previous day, therefore I've completed my lay-off.

From here you may as well toss a coin on the result of this match.  It's probably got some more twists and turns to come, but it'll just as likely be decided by some individual brilliance which can be hard to predict.  I'm keeping a healthy green on India, but thats primarily to maintain a hedge on my series bet.  Without that I'd be greening up on both teams and leaning toward a bigger green on England because I think their price is wrong.

Now it's time to just sit back and enjoy the cricket.

Very happy with my pre-game position and comments, though I wasn't expecting to be so right so soon and facing a lay-off after Day 1 !

The market has got it about right, with India now into 2.0 and England 2.7, but I'm only laying off half my stake at this point because I think it's likely that India will shorten even further on Day 2.

The situation is perfect for Rahul "The Wall" Dravid, and if he has his head on right he has the form to see off the 1st session with his dour batting style.  Don't expect a strike rate over 30 and don't expect a top score from him either, but if he can see off the morning session, take the shine off the ball, frustrate the English bowlers and let the demons in the pitch die down he will set the game up nicely for Tendulkar and company to exploit the English spinners.  At the end of day 2 a score that looks like 280/5 or better will have the English punters crying into their warm ales and India into odds-on favourtism.

Worst case I see is India following the England collapse which would see the draw price blow out, but the head to head pricing fairly even - so there is no huge risk in maintaining an exposure on India for another day.

Before I start I must confess that I did win some money on England for the 1st test and I do still have money riding on England to win the series.  However, while some people now seem to be praising England as "the best team in the world" and are predicting a 4-0 or 3-0 series scoreline, I think it's a little bit early to get carried away.

India were under-prepared for the 1st test and were not beaten all that convincingly.  Yes, England were the better team, and I have growing respect for the stability and confidence in the England team right now.  A team which seems to be rising to the big occassions and handling the pressure situations well.

That said, England do have a habit of losing focus and they're well capable of the odd batting collapse - especially when they get over-confident. Meanwhile India will be circling the wagons ahead of the 2nd test with a much better preparation/acclimitisation and while they have some injury issues, they have good depth in their squad and are bound to bounce back.

I'm not saying that India will win the 2nd test, but they are currently under-estimated and I've taken a pre-game position by laying England (2.26) and backing India (5.40) while leaving the draw neutral to take the unknown pitch and weather out of the equation.  I generally don't trade during play and will wait until the close of play each day before re-assessing and this early position gives me the opportunity to move into, or away from the draw once the pitch and weather reveal themselves.

In the 1st test I back England outright and kept waiting for England to come into odds-on favourite, but they never did.  The draw remained favourite into the start of day 5 so I let my pre-game bets ride.  For the 2nd test I'm looking for that English batting collapse for the opportunity to lay off, but if England do win I've atleast covered my 2nd test loss with my England series win bet.  In that sense my position for the 2nd test is a bit of a hedge.

Well, I've been a Betfair member since 2004 and have been solidly plugging away on the punt for the last 7 odd years as a bit of a quiet achiever.  I occassionally get on the forum with the odd question or comment, but really I get quickly bored with the usual trolling, ranting and general idiocy that I see there so it never holds my attention for very long.

I thought I might try and fire up a blog just to see what it's all about.  After all I'm a reasonably consistent (yet small-time) winner and some people might be interested in my stories.  Maybe even I'll make some real contacts that can help me improve my own sports analysis.  Years ago I did get a couple of solid tips on how to develop my betfair strategy and style from a betfair forumite, so you never know when the longshot might pay off.

If you're reading this then well met and good luck to you !  My bread and butter is cricket, rugby league and horse racing, but I also dabble in rugby union, cycling, formula 1, politics and tennis on occassion though frequently my analysis has an flavour tending toward Australian sports.  I'll try and blog every now and then when I'm taking a position or have an insight worthy of comment but we'll see how it goes.....