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stu
18 Nov 25 10:08
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Date Joined: 12 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 25,850 | Blogger: stu's blog
Famous last words of course (forum curse)

But how the heck can Wales be this short, against a side arguably with better results than them in this group? 1.72 really?

I know they need to win this, but opponents have held Belgium twice to draws, and Belgium are much better than Wales. Wales have also barely managed to beat the minnows in this group very recently, so they struggle to score.

Cue a 5-0 now (of course), but really this should make Wales around 2.24 or bigger IMO - not this price?

Welcome to disagree, all veiws on this match welcome, but can anyone explain this price?
Pause Switch to Standard View Wales very short v N Macedonia?
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Report i_agree_with_nick November 18, 2025 10:13 AM GMT
I thought the same but at least they're not playing the whole of Macedonia.
Report stu November 18, 2025 10:15 AM GMT
Grin South would play them off the field, but at least Macedonia are only playing a small bit of England too Mischief
Report i_agree_with_nick November 18, 2025 10:22 AM GMT
I know they need to win this, but opponents have held Belgium twice to draws, and Belgium are much better than Wales. Wales have also barely managed to beat the minnows in this group very recently, so they struggle to score.

Reminds me of England v Croatia, 2007.  Croatia were 11/2 and won 3-2.
Report stu November 18, 2025 10:28 AM GMT
Yep, good comparison.
Report stu November 18, 2025 10:52 AM GMT
Just to add:

Wales have already qualified for the playoffs even if they don't win (due to Nations league) so very arguably N Macedonia have an even greater incentive in this match.
Report 1st time poster November 18, 2025 11:22 AM GMT
the world cup has gone when teams finishing 2nd/3rd in group qualifying for play offs still manage to have dead rubbers
Report stu November 18, 2025 11:46 AM GMT
I agree the format is a bit pants, yes.
Report lurka November 18, 2025 12:09 PM GMT
It's far from a dead rubber for either side. Massive game for Wales. Looking at Italy/Turkey or 2 other better sides away next if they don't win versus a home draw against a lower ranked side if they do.

Doesn't explain the dip in price tho. Maybe patriotic money does as they were only about 1.9 earlier today, which was still very low and there's only 50k traded. They are missing key players and Macedonia are unbeaten and only conceded 3 in 7.
Report DIE LINKE November 18, 2025 12:12 PM GMT
Pinny going 1.66 Wales
Report DIE LINKE November 18, 2025 12:24 PM GMT
Just shows how bad liquidity is on here these days when you can have a team backed from 1.94 to 1.70 and just over £50K is matched.
Report stu November 18, 2025 1:01 PM GMT
lurka - I haven't said it's a dead rubber, just that the motivation might not be quite as big as a 'do or die' kind of qualification game for Wales.

N Macedonia do have that motivation however in this one - they need the result for sure.
Report stu November 18, 2025 1:03 PM GMT
But either way - whether they 'need' the wins or not, can't get past the fact that Wales are bang average as a team, no better than their opponents.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 1:35 PM GMT
I know Wales have players out but North Macedonia are very poor and have been very lucky
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 1:46 PM GMT
I thought Wales would be 1.6.  So with the suspensions, price looks fair to me.  Don't know the North Macedonia team news
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 1:48 PM GMT
The match means more to Wales too as they'll get a home draw with a win.  North Macedonia are away whatever happens
Report stu November 18, 2025 2:06 PM GMT
It's interesting to say 'lucky' CB - you mostly prob mean their last game v Belgium I am guessing?

I don't think they were lucky in other games personally, and anyway 'luck' is pretty subjective. You make your own as the saying goes in sport...They have had a strong defence and that isn't luck.

Home advantage makes a difference yes, hence why I'd price Wales as favourite here, but 2.3 would make them favourite. Which is closer to where I'd price them.
Report stu November 18, 2025 2:14 PM GMT
Wales lost twice to Belgium, the same side failed to beat N Macedonia in two matches.

How that can make Wales anywhere near rated a stronger side than their opposition is not at all clear.

When these two did play each other (1-1), the game was very level, which I expect again tonight.
Report DIE LINKE November 18, 2025 2:16 PM GMT
is this a trade gone wrong, stu?
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:18 PM GMT
I mean the home game against Wales both games against Belgium and the home fixture v Kazakhstan stu
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:19 PM GMT
soz meant the away fixture in Kazakhstan
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:22 PM GMT
I did actually watch large parts of the Kazakhstan at home to Macedonia match and the best team lost
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:33 PM GMT
Kazakhstan v North Macedonoa.  North Macedonia were about evens.  Kazakhstan hit the woodwork 3 times.  Had 6 corners to Macedonia's 0.  24 touches in the Macedonian box to Macedonia's 10.  Had 18 crosses to Macedonia's 3.  Had 91 successful final third passes to Macedonia's 48
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:37 PM GMT
Against Belgium. Belgium had 84!! touches in the Macedonian box to Macedionias 5.  25 shots 13 corners  41 crosses 269 successful final third passes
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:40 PM GMT
Away in Macedonia Wales had 25 touches in the Macedonian box to Macedonia's 10, 100 successful final third passes to 52, 22 crosses to 13.  More shots, much more possession
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:41 PM GMT
anyhow that's why Wales are the price they are despite a weakened team
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 2:43 PM GMT
Every team will want Macedonia in the play offs.  They will be the weakest team in it.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 3:02 PM GMT
North Macedonia are at full strength and Wales missing 3 or 4 starters so their luck continues.  They warmed up with a fair 0-0 draw at home to Latvia when they were pretty much full strength.  Only a friendly but does highlight their limitations, which is highlighted also if you look at their player roster.  I take back the 1.6.  A fully fit Wales team would be nearer 1.55, maybe shorter still
Report 1st time poster November 18, 2025 3:03 PM GMT
norther Ireland last night 3rd in group could have got beat 

  50  v  nil by luxembourg
and still been in the playoffs
and that's before you get in to nation LG winners/semi finalist etc etc
Report stu November 18, 2025 3:04 PM GMT
It's always possible to pick holes I suppose using these stats, but best stats are often results also.

Like I say, no luck in that. But also if we're looking at stats prob best comparison was the game between these two.

That was very level on stats (marginally favouring N. Mac on the 'expected goals' that game).

See no reason to assume Wales are suddenly massively superior, but pays your money etc....
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 3:08 PM GMT
It was very poor on the night and there are obvious excuses, but Northern Ireland have had some excellent performances in qualifying and a decent enough squad.  Macedonia have some excellent results, but not one single excellent performance in qualifying and their squad is clearly a fair bit weaker than Northern Ireland's
Report stu November 18, 2025 3:09 PM GMT
Wales did win on possession areas like you say, but many teams do that and do naff all with it - like Wales often do (as Liechtenstein who nearly took a draw from them) Grin
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 3:14 PM GMT
1.72 is not massively superior, not in my book.  It's just over 0.5 goals better after HA.  Prolly 0.25 greater than that if Wales were full strength.

EXG is a better metric than actual goals, but it has it's limitations.  Expected opportunities would be a better metric.  Wales were the better team in Skopje.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 3:18 PM GMT
Possession isn't a big deal if it doesn't lead to more opportunities.  But in Skopje it did.  Anyhow I think the prices look very fair given the Welsh players missing.
Report stu November 18, 2025 3:18 PM GMT
Wales were the better team in Skopje.

Arguably, but couldn't beat them, and were slightly behind on expected goals - all in all, nothing between these two sides on ability, or not much at least. Missing some players could make that minimal at best in difference in ability.
Report stu November 18, 2025 3:20 PM GMT
Either way, seems market is agreeing with you, so we will see the proof in the result I suppose...Wales could well nick this one, but I can't see that their price has any value.
Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 3:43 PM GMT
I think the case for Macedonia is threefold.

1. Their results will breed confidence
2. Wales have important players missing and NM don't
3. Wales were poor creating clear cut opportunities against the worst team in Europe parking the bus.  North Macedonia will play with a low block too I imagine and Wales could well struggle in that department again.

But Macedonia are a very average team compared to Wales and everyone should want them in the play offs
Report stu November 18, 2025 4:00 PM GMT
I suppose it's the 'compared to Wales' part that I am struggling to agree with Happy - I think they are very average too.
Report stu November 18, 2025 4:01 PM GMT
Two mediocre sides against each other tonight IMO...
Report Emitdeb November 18, 2025 4:13 PM GMT
My spidey senses are tingling.... I'm going in heavy on Wales... Love
Report stu November 18, 2025 4:14 PM GMT
Need to go in heavy at these prices, to win much Emit....
Report Emitdeb November 18, 2025 4:17 PM GMT
Grin... We're not getting rich but I do enjoy watching my money play... Not really bothered about Wales otherwise..
Report DIE LINKE November 18, 2025 5:16 PM GMT
Pinny went 1.66, was 1.72 on here. Then into 1.61, 1.65 on here. Trading for Dummies.
Report stu November 18, 2025 5:37 PM GMT
odd though that market had it between 1.82-1.92 for quite a while before that on here...
Report stu November 18, 2025 5:37 PM GMT
My average lay is around 1.73 on here
Report stu November 18, 2025 8:06 PM GMT
Wales 1-0, crystal ball market correct...fair play...
Report Emitdeb November 18, 2025 8:08 PM GMT
1.06 After 20 minutes.... Plain
Report 1st time poster November 18, 2025 8:08 PM GMT
10 hrs write up game over after 20 mins Laugh
Report 1st time poster November 18, 2025 8:10 PM GMT
oops maybe not,game on
Report tobermory November 18, 2025 8:24 PM GMT
3-1
Report tobermory November 18, 2025 8:40 PM GMT
Wales one soft pen and two deflections
Report tobermory November 18, 2025 8:59 PM GMT
4-1
Report DIE LINKE November 18, 2025 9:05 PM GMT
was it another fluke goal cos at some point merit becomes a factor.
Report LoyalHoncho November 18, 2025 9:07 PM GMT
Clarke must bring Shankland on now.  Not with ten to go.  Dykes is a passenger.  But he won’t.
Report stu November 18, 2025 9:09 PM GMT
so this was awful, lol
Report tobermory November 18, 2025 9:15 PM GMT

Nov 18, 2025 -- 9:05PM, DIE LINKE wrote:


was it another fluke goal cos at some point merit becomes a factor.


4th goal was a good one

Report CLYDEBANK29 November 18, 2025 9:23 PM GMT
I did tell you Macedonia were very poor
Report s.kenbo November 18, 2025 9:31 PM GMT
CB29 knows his footy. Well reasoned. Cool
Report Crisp77 November 18, 2025 9:33 PM GMT
Another Betfair forum classic Cool
Report s.kenbo November 18, 2025 9:35 PM GMT
If you’re gonna lose a bet, may as well do it in style!
Report lurka November 18, 2025 9:53 PM GMT
WORLD CUP PLAYOFF POTS

1️⃣ Italy, Denmark, Turkey, Ukraine
2️⃣ Poland, Wales, Czechia, Slovakia
3️⃣ Ireland, Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo
4️⃣ Romania, Sweden, N Macedonia, N Ireland

Pot 1 has home advantage v Pot 4; Pot 2 home v Pot 3. 1/4 plays 2/3 at venue tbc in draw (Thurs 12pm).
Report stu November 18, 2025 11:53 PM GMT
TBF I was posing this also as a post for differing views, perfectly happy to hear the other side, but only CB posted about that in his team assessments.

Fair play you, and the market, got this one right.
Report Flemenstar November 19, 2025 12:28 AM GMT
well done Clydebank
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