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Famous last words of course (forum curse)
But how the heck can Wales be this short, against a side arguably with better results than them in this group? 1.72 really?
I know they need to win this, but opponents have held Belgium twice to draws, and Belgium are much better than Wales. Wales have also barely managed to beat the minnows in this group very recently, so they struggle to score.
Cue a 5-0 now (of course), but really this should make Wales around 2.24 or bigger IMO - not this price?
Welcome to disagree, all veiws on this match welcome, but can anyone explain this price?
But how the heck can Wales be this short, against a side arguably with better results than them in this group? 1.72 really?
I know they need to win this, but opponents have held Belgium twice to draws, and Belgium are much better than Wales. Wales have also barely managed to beat the minnows in this group very recently, so they struggle to score.
Cue a 5-0 now (of course), but really this should make Wales around 2.24 or bigger IMO - not this price?
Welcome to disagree, all veiws on this match welcome, but can anyone explain this price?
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I thought the same but at least they're not playing the whole of Macedonia.
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 South would play them off the field, but at least Macedonia are only playing a small bit of England too  |
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I know they need to win this, but opponents have held Belgium twice to draws, and Belgium are much better than Wales. Wales have also barely managed to beat the minnows in this group very recently, so they struggle to score.
Reminds me of England v Croatia, 2007. Croatia were 11/2 and won 3-2. |
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Yep, good comparison.
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Just to add:
Wales have already qualified for the playoffs even if they don't win (due to Nations league) so very arguably N Macedonia have an even greater incentive in this match. |
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the world cup has gone when teams finishing 2nd/3rd in group qualifying for play offs still manage to have dead rubbers
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I agree the format is a bit pants, yes.
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It's far from a dead rubber for either side. Massive game for Wales. Looking at Italy/Turkey or 2 other better sides away next if they don't win versus a home draw against a lower ranked side if they do.
Doesn't explain the dip in price tho. Maybe patriotic money does as they were only about 1.9 earlier today, which was still very low and there's only 50k traded. They are missing key players and Macedonia are unbeaten and only conceded 3 in 7. |
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Pinny going 1.66 Wales
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Just shows how bad liquidity is on here these days when you can have a team backed from 1.94 to 1.70 and just over £50K is matched.
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lurka - I haven't said it's a dead rubber, just that the motivation might not be quite as big as a 'do or die' kind of qualification game for Wales.
N Macedonia do have that motivation however in this one - they need the result for sure. |
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But either way - whether they 'need' the wins or not, can't get past the fact that Wales are bang average as a team, no better than their opponents.
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I know Wales have players out but North Macedonia are very poor and have been very lucky
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I thought Wales would be 1.6. So with the suspensions, price looks fair to me. Don't know the North Macedonia team news
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The match means more to Wales too as they'll get a home draw with a win. North Macedonia are away whatever happens
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It's interesting to say 'lucky' CB - you mostly prob mean their last game v Belgium I am guessing?
I don't think they were lucky in other games personally, and anyway 'luck' is pretty subjective. You make your own as the saying goes in sport...They have had a strong defence and that isn't luck. Home advantage makes a difference yes, hence why I'd price Wales as favourite here, but 2.3 would make them favourite. Which is closer to where I'd price them. |
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Wales lost twice to Belgium, the same side failed to beat N Macedonia in two matches.
How that can make Wales anywhere near rated a stronger side than their opposition is not at all clear. When these two did play each other (1-1), the game was very level, which I expect again tonight. |
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is this a trade gone wrong, stu?
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I mean the home game against Wales both games against Belgium and the home fixture v Kazakhstan stu
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soz meant the away fixture in Kazakhstan
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I did actually watch large parts of the Kazakhstan at home to Macedonia match and the best team lost
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Kazakhstan v North Macedonoa. North Macedonia were about evens. Kazakhstan hit the woodwork 3 times. Had 6 corners to Macedonia's 0. 24 touches in the Macedonian box to Macedonia's 10. Had 18 crosses to Macedonia's 3. Had 91 successful final third passes to Macedonia's 48
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Against Belgium. Belgium had 84!! touches in the Macedonian box to Macedionias 5. 25 shots 13 corners 41 crosses 269 successful final third passes
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Away in Macedonia Wales had 25 touches in the Macedonian box to Macedonia's 10, 100 successful final third passes to 52, 22 crosses to 13. More shots, much more possession
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anyhow that's why Wales are the price they are despite a weakened team
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Every team will want Macedonia in the play offs. They will be the weakest team in it.
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North Macedonia are at full strength and Wales missing 3 or 4 starters so their luck continues. They warmed up with a fair 0-0 draw at home to Latvia when they were pretty much full strength. Only a friendly but does highlight their limitations, which is highlighted also if you look at their player roster. I take back the 1.6. A fully fit Wales team would be nearer 1.55, maybe shorter still
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norther Ireland last night 3rd in group could have got beat
50 v nil by luxembourg and still been in the playoffs and that's before you get in to nation LG winners/semi finalist etc etc |
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It's always possible to pick holes I suppose using these stats, but best stats are often results also.
Like I say, no luck in that. But also if we're looking at stats prob best comparison was the game between these two. That was very level on stats (marginally favouring N. Mac on the 'expected goals' that game). See no reason to assume Wales are suddenly massively superior, but pays your money etc.... |
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It was very poor on the night and there are obvious excuses, but Northern Ireland have had some excellent performances in qualifying and a decent enough squad. Macedonia have some excellent results, but not one single excellent performance in qualifying and their squad is clearly a fair bit weaker than Northern Ireland's
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Wales did win on possession areas like you say, but many teams do that and do naff all with it - like Wales often do (as Liechtenstein who nearly took a draw from them)
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1.72 is not massively superior, not in my book. It's just over 0.5 goals better after HA. Prolly 0.25 greater than that if Wales were full strength.
EXG is a better metric than actual goals, but it has it's limitations. Expected opportunities would be a better metric. Wales were the better team in Skopje. |
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Possession isn't a big deal if it doesn't lead to more opportunities. But in Skopje it did. Anyhow I think the prices look very fair given the Welsh players missing.
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Wales were the better team in Skopje.
Arguably, but couldn't beat them, and were slightly behind on expected goals - all in all, nothing between these two sides on ability, or not much at least. Missing some players could make that minimal at best in difference in ability. |
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Either way, seems market is agreeing with you, so we will see the proof in the result I suppose...Wales could well nick this one, but I can't see that their price has any value.
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I think the case for Macedonia is threefold.
1. Their results will breed confidence 2. Wales have important players missing and NM don't 3. Wales were poor creating clear cut opportunities against the worst team in Europe parking the bus. North Macedonia will play with a low block too I imagine and Wales could well struggle in that department again. But Macedonia are a very average team compared to Wales and everyone should want them in the play offs |
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I suppose it's the 'compared to Wales' part that I am struggling to agree with
 - I think they are very average too. |
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Two mediocre sides against each other tonight IMO...
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My spidey senses are tingling.... I'm going in heavy on Wales...
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