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thanks foin. nice start to the day
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Gills up to 4th now after an unexpectedly resounding 3-0 win over Bristol Rovers .
Teenager Sheldon Walker came off the bench in the 83rd minute and scored twice ! Great day for the lad  |
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Just checked the odds for the outrights on L2 - Gills are now 66/1 with 1/4 the odds first 3
 . Since the first day home defeat (where they peppered the Walsall goal before conceding 3 late goals) they have drawn 3 in a row followed by winning 3 in a row. In those wins they have score 9 goals without conceding. And they have a number of absentees who are due to come back from injury in the coming weeks. It may be a bit fanciful to suggest they could win the league but those odds look far too big to me and they are also quoted at 10/1 for promotion. Given the open nature of the league, worth investing a few shekels from a value perspective alone. |
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Yes, a great win for Gills. As I said at the time, I intended to back them for the first few games as they had started so well in previous seasons before fading as winter approached. Unfortunately, that first day blank put me off
 . Oh ye of little faith Of my selections, Crewe only managed to draw and Grimsby won so a half point loss on the day. Barnet won well to lead the table by 2 points and Salford did enough and are steadily climbing into the top half after their poor start. |
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Unlucky with Crewe there Foin, they had an injury time "winner" ruled out for offside and the goal they conceded was from an intercepted back pass.
That said it seems the Shrews were worth a point overall and are gradually improving so are worth keeping on the right side of. The Gills were a general 25/1 at the start of the season, they are now 3 points off the top and looking pretty good but are available at 66/1. Maybe the odds compilers know something i don't, but I just don't get it  |
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good league for me yesterday with wins for grimsby and walsall.
66 is a crazy price for gills . had to have a bit of that |
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Gills are back in to 25/1 on here Dixie, I took a small stake as a hedge against my early bets on Barnet and Salford. Bristol R are still favourites.
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66 is with sly
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I've also increased my stake on Salford, the Dragon. It will be interesting to see how Gills fare at York next week.
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yes foin -salford are lacking goals for me 8 in 7 games is not enough. long way to go mind
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Salford have found their feet now after that poor start and will surely push for promotion.
Barnet don't play for the next 2 weekends now due to the wretched elongated international break (they have call ups) and so will slip down the table a bit as a result. Will be interesting to see how the outright market shapes up after that. foin - Gills are still 66s on Sportsbook ? As they are with Sky, Paddys, VCBet. They have a very difficult away trip to York next week and the home side are very short at about 1/2, no way i'd take that, although in fairness i have no real idea how good this York side is yet so the match will be informative. |
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Yes, I took some on sportsbook and layed off some on the exchange at 26. I see that 19 to back is the best offer now.
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I think that 1/2 for a York win is wrong as Gills are very capable of shutting them out for a draw. I might risk a lay nearer the time.
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Here are a few thoughts on the weekends fixtures:
Not sure why Gills are 9/2 on here away at York this weekend. They have won 3 on the bounce and unbeaten in 6 and have scored 11 and conceded 1 in last 3. York only won two in last 6 games but are strong at home. The lay of York is currently 1.62. You would fancy Salford to win at Oldham given the current form of both teams and I was surprised to see that Oldham are favs for the game. Salford available at 7/4. Local derby maybe a factor on the pricing. Grimsby are odds on to win at Newport and should oblige but i think they are a bit short given both teams draw records. Bristol Rovers 8/11 must have a good chance of breaking their losing sequence at home to Exeter who have lost every away game and not won in five. Not sure what is going on at Swindon and they are proving to be very inconsistent. Won 3 lost 3 in the last 6. They are very good at home with a 3/3 wins ratio. Probably to good for Accrington who have lost every away game and won 1 in 6.Swindon at 6/5 is very tempting. No comments on other games. Any views? |
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A good summary, The Dragon. I still prefer a lay of York keeping the draw onside. Bristol R, Salford and Swindon would be my choices too in that order of preference. A pity the Crawley game has been postponed.
Fleetwood v Rochdale looks like a low score draw, maybe 0-0 which I might risk a shilling or two on. |
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thanks foin-
yes re Fleetwood v Rochdale. Rochdale yet to score away and Fleetwood are hardly banging them in at home with 3 goals in 3 games - 2 v shrewsbury |
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Cheltenham again a decent price considering they are at home against Chesterfield.
The away side are improving nicely but are a bit short for me. No result in this league could really be called a surprise on the evidence so far, therefore going for the bigger priced teams may continue to be profitable. Gills lost 4-1 at home to Cambridge in the mickey mouse cup last night which looks bad on the face of it but virtually the whole side was fringe players and youngsters. Bradley Dack did get on for the second half on his return from injury and looked (naturally enough) far from match fit. Hopefully he will be a factor for them going deeper in to the season as at his best he is much too good for this division. Gills do have strength in depth but it's finding the right combination/formation that will be the key to their season. York away this Saturday is bound to be tough and hopefully will tell us more about the Gills prospects. |
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A good win for Salford at a nice price, let's hope the market keeps underestimating them. Cheltenham won again, good pick Dixie. Gills were disappointing at York but the home side are making an impact on their return to the league. Bristol Rovers also kept up their challenge at the top. The surprise of the day was Newport beating high flying Grimsby, you can't write off anybody in this league.
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That's certainly true Foin, absolutely no result is a true surprise in this league.
Salford are beginning to look ominous after their poor start cost them ground. Cheltenham have to be kept on the right side of all the time the layers underestimate them. The Gills were torn a new one by York today, 3 nil flattered the away side as it could have been 5 or 6. The solidity of the last few weeks was totally missing and Gareth Ainsworth must be scratching his head at such a poor effort. Newport at home for them next week and that won't be easy. I had a good day today, did 4 draws in trebles and acca in L1 and L2 and remarkably all 4 were all losing scorelines at 90 mins but injury time goals in each of them landed the draws Can't remember a bet changing fortune like that before |
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well done guys not too shabby here either and a good weekend overall from a betting perspective.
Salford as you say Foin was a great price and Bristol scrapped over the line. I got a draw double up in League 1 but Gills were disappointing . only 7 fixtures next weekend due to internationals again!  |
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This week I'm backing Grimsby, Rochdale and Cheltenham to win. Grimsby are strong at home and are playing Shrewsbury who have a poor away record. I don't expect many goals in this one but Grimsby will do enough.
Rochdale and Cheltenham are form teams at excellent prices (2.5 and 2.96 respectively on the exchange). Their opponents are struggling this season and Swindon especially are a disappointment after their good performance last season. |
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i agree with those selections foin.
i also think that Rotherham 7/4 and Gillingham 11/10 have great chances. |
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The Gills had been in fine form before their humbling at York last week. A positive reaction will be needed to beat Newport tomorrow and the away side have been in fair form themselves. Newport are a bit of a bogey side for the Gills who have only won 2 of their last 10 against them, Newport winning 6. A very difficult game to call and the Gills are a bit too short for me, so no bet but good luck to Dragon and any others who do back them.
Cheltenham again look overpriced at 19/10 with most bookies for their away game at Accrington. The away side sit second in the table after 8 games and have already played a number of the fancied sides so it looks no fluke that they are up there. Stanley on the other hand are in 19th with just one win so far and that was against basement boys Crawley. On value grounds alone i have to back Cheltenham here. |
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Looks like we are all Cheltenham bound
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Cheltenham in to 6/4 with the bookies, obviously this forum must be responsible
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It didn't do us any good. Just one out of 3 for me. The 88th minute goal for Rochdale rescued most of my stake, just a half point down on the day.
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Some burnt fingers for us all after today.
Stanley got Cheltenham in to a fine mess, the away side never at the races. Gills only drew 0-0 with Newport and the away side had the better chances and will feel they should have won. Gills had lots of the ball but created little. Grimsby lost at home to Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers got stuffed on the road again at Crewe. Expect the unexpected each week in this league. One team who are on a roll is Salford who have now gone top after 9 games, despite losing their first 3 .Barnet in second are a point behind and do have 2 games in hand however. |
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I don't regret backing Cheltenham, I do regret Grimsby this week and Walsall previously. Short priced "bankers" are often poor value in this league.
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A couple of weird early prices in this league at the weekend,
The first is Accrington at Oldham who are 9/2 on here. Oldham (1.62) have lost 4 on the bounce and only won 2 games all season. Accrington have lost 1 in 6 (to high flying Barnet) and beat a much fancied Cheltenham at the weekend. The prices make no sense and a lay of Oldham looks good value. The other is Rochdale who are just under 3/1 on here away at Tranmere. Rochdale are on a roll after a dodgy start and have won 3 on the bounce and 4 out of 6. Only defeat was too inform Gills who beat them at home 1-4.Tranmere have won 1 in 6 games and have drawn 3 of those games.Tranmere are 11/10. Still looking at the other fixtures but i was surprise by the prices in both of those matches. |
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Tranmere to lay that is (11/10).
Barnet unbeaten away ( 11/5) look big at out of form Bristol Rovers (lost 3/4) |
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Given the unpredictable nature of this league it makes sense to generally back the outsiders in what look like close games.
Accrington a case in point this week, although Oldham are ok at home with two wins so far and two defeats (against Salford and Chesterfield). However the Latics are too short at 4/6 and Accrington could be value. Barnet are unbeaten so far and even though they have played two games less than most sides are the top scorers in the division with 17. They do look decent value at 2/1 or bigger but the caveat has to be that opponents Bristol Rovers have a stellar recent home record with 11 league wins on the bounce. It may be prudent to invest in Overs given both sides attacking capabilities. Gills have had a wobble of late but if they can rediscover their goal touch then they look overpriced at 3/1 or bigger away to Rotherham who are finding wins hard to come by. Just 3 points between the top 11 sides at the moment, so open. |
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Sensible suggestions Dixie and the Dragon. I too will be ignoring the short priced jollies and will go for Accrington, Crewe and Grimsby. I burnt my fingers with Grimsby last week and despite recent results I think they are better than their odds against Port Vale suggests. Crewe are a strong side this season and should add to Swindon's misery this weekend.
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thanks guys sensible and helpful info as always. gl with your bets
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Newport
Shrewsbury York. |
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A good day for our selections
Barnet came back from a goal down to score 3 late goals at Bristol Rovers. Gills came back from a goal down to hammer Rotherham 4-1. My team are a bit Jekyll and Hyde this season Accrington drew 0-0 with Oldham, poor game which the away side could have won. As opined above, Oldham were too short at around 4/6 so layers will be happy. Salford got two more late goals to see off 10 man Cheltenham who seem to have gone off the boil. |
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Well done guys. Only one from 3 for me and another half point loss on the day. It looks like I'm going to have to write Grimsby off altogether, they are in a false position based on their current form.
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Oldham look very short when they host Cheltenham at the weekend at 1.82. Oldham have lost 4 and drawn 2 in the last 6 and are bottom of te form league table.
Cheltenham prior to defeats v Accrington and Salford were going well with 3 wins and 3 draws in 6 games . 4/1 looks too big on here |
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This weekend looks like another lottery doesn't it? I think Newport could get something out of their game against York. They are playing well at the moment especially at home where they are unbeaten in the league. York have yet to win away from home. Newport currently around 3/1
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Salford look banker material but are only 1.37.
Maybe BARNET are the bet away at Tranmere at around evens. Tranmere are solid at home mind but Barnet will probably be too good for a team who has won 1 in 6. not a good betting weekend i reckon in this league |
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Div 1 looks a better betting proposition. Salford, Barnet and Gills are my 3 on the Winner market so I will be pleased if they do win.
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