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Celtic Vigo vs Ath. Bilbao (the usual Sunday night chase) thoughts?
Celtic Vigo vs Ath. Bilbao (the usual Sunday night chase) thoughts?
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Replies: 681
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honestly one of the hardest leagues to get right
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yeah it was 2-0 and it was just before the second red card, was just browsing the markets and noticed hardly anything matched on 3.5 but 4.5 had 9k matched at 1.02-1.03 so thought id give it a pop. actually had 5.5 at 1.02 aswell when it got to 3-0 for another £150ish
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did you see how anti goals the market was though?
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like they set it up purposely to lure people into backing under 1.5 goals, under 2.5 goals
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yep, even when i was shocked into backing overs at 3.5ish at the start they managed to get me to change my mind a few minutes later at 4.0
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and the super shrewdie decides based on that: "oh yeah I'll be safe and back under 3.5 goals @ 1.1 cannot lose...
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i'm convinced it's all pre planned. ref and linesman let them play and disallow any goals they don't want
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was that goal at the end there offside? they didn't bother to show any replay, just shove the camera in the face of the linesman with his flag up
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as much as i feel like that whole clusterfk was a missed opportunity, i dont mind so much because i won on their fixing yesterday.
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I won a bit on o1.5, layed the u1.5 @ 2.58 after 10 mins
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and layed it again at 1-0 on around 43 mins @ 3.7
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it was 1.4x for 1 more goal during half time. they were doing everything to make you think no more goals here.
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then went to make something to eat and watched a bit of recorded tv, then came back to my laptop at 80 mins or whenever it was and it was 3-1
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well laid, apparently it wasnt even close to unders
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and it reminded me of the times I used to lay the u4.5 every time because I knew they would just randomly do something
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would just lay it @ 1.07 or 1.08 for £100 and hope tonight was the night they did their random goalspree from nowhere
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once the 0-0 was busted, then the 1-0 was busted (what they were trying to tell us was going to happen), it was always likely to be anything after that hence why i went 4.5.
lets hope for the linesmans sake he was supposed to have the flag up at the end |
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it's such an out of order league really though. I might only make bets on it from now on when you tell me to
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seriously
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your money your choice as they say, you won more on the game than i did
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I won 2 small amounts laying u1.5
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because I was determined it would be 1-1 hence having at least 2 goals
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and not 0-0 or 0-1 like the market was trying to tell me it was going to be
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i backed o2.5 at the start, redded out for about a tenner loss.
lost £25 backing 0-0 lost £20 on laying u4.5 lost £2 laying u5.5  |
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they're utter bastards
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you only backed that 0-0 because they told you to pretty much
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crazy thing is they told me from the start what was really going on
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right so you've seen that happen tonight, and the way they priced it right?
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so fast forward 2 or 3 weeks down the line, you'll see another match similar to this from Col D1, and there will be a goal in the opening 20 minutes. you'll think you're clever and head to the u3.5 or u4.5 to lay a low price, or you'll go to the o2.5 and lump hard on it at 2.9 or something.. and the match will end 1-0FT
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or even worse lump hard on the o1.5 @ 1.25 or something
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you see how the league becomes a total maze to bet on when the markets behave how they do?
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other classic bets ive had tonight post-mls meltdown was laying colo at 1.5 before trading out at a tiny bit more, backing libertad and losing, backing a late goal that never came in mexico
won decent on necaxa in the same game won on 0-0 in guarani was very close to laying santamarina v boca unidos when they were 1-0 up at 1.2 which wouldve won but didnt pull the trigger all in all i feel like ive learned a lot tonight though, not just the mls guessing stuff but how to read the markets, lots of theory put to the test and if i had stuck with it id have won a pile in columbia and chile |
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seriously I find it one of the most disturbing leagues to bet on because they seemingly make it go how they want it to based on nothing.
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ive seen the columbian league in action before, sadly im not new to this, seen many a 2-2 draw at ht end 2-2
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i wonder how the bets end up on the exchange, do you think theyre using a uk based betting agent?
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I don't find it clear what they're going to do though. you thought this was going over 2.5 based on big money coming in to back it after 10 mins?
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before the game, 7.5k pushed over 1.5 down from 1,8 to 1.7x, which is crazy unusual in a market where £10 normally sets the next price.
in the over 2.5 market there was 32k sitting on the back side for under 2.5 goals, so somebody was willing to have 32k open to lay the goals market at whatever price it was on the other side of the market 11k was next to get matched on the lay side for over2.5, so somebody was backing it and willing to risk 11k sitting up. it wa sonly there for about 30 seconds and 5k of it was taken before the money disapeared. |
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interesting stuff. following the doesn't always work but it's definitely a far more effective strategy in certain legues
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leagues*
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the money appearing on both sides was probably cross matching but even so it was huge sums in a market that was saying go the total opposite direction
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