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Probabilty Theory - Tips

TheBetfairBuddy

23 Jul 16 03:31

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Date Joined: 09 Jun 11

| Topic/replies: 8,220 | Blogger: TheBetfairBuddy's blog

Came across a great piece online about Probability theory and decided to incorporate this into my strategy.

1) Man Utd v Dortmund
Man Utd probability 0.22
I tipped Dortmund at $3.22 & Dortmund +1/2 $1.71
Result : ManUtd 1-4 Dortmund

2) Real Salt v SanJose
Real probability 1.03
Tip : Real win $2.00

I'm back full time 1 Aug.

Your no 1 & biggest name T9

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Replies: 40

By:

JC1326 When: 23 Jul 16 10:33

Real 1-1 San Jose. We look forward to you being a mug full-time.

By:

Charlie When: 23 Jul 16 10:55

Came across a great piece online about Probability theory and decided to incorporate this into my strategy.

2) Real Salt v SanJose
Real probability 1.03
Tip : Real win $2.00

I suggest you go back and re-read the article as you don't get probabilities over 1.

By:

tenpins When: 23 Jul 16 11:02

What was the probability of this going tits up in record time?

By:

gotitwrong- When: 23 Jul 16 12:04

1.00

By:

betting_masta When: 23 Jul 16 16:15

how is this worked out please

By:

detraveller When: 24 Jul 16 12:43

There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.

Probability by definition is between 0 and 1.

How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?

By:

mega88 When: 24 Jul 16 14:20

Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:

There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?

Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!

By:

mega88 When: 24 Jul 16 14:21

By:

detraveller When: 24 Jul 16 14:24

Jul 24, 2016 -- 2:20PM, mega88 wrote:

Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!

Yeah the icing on the cake was when he said i'll be back full time Aug 1!

I have sent him a contact request. I'll be honored if he accepts.

By:

JC1326 When: 24 Jul 16 14:38

The OP said he read about Probability Theory and is going to use it in his punting strategy, and the first bet has a probability of 1.03. This is just giving you a taste of what's to come

By:

detraveller When: 24 Jul 16 16:01

'Came across a great piece online about Probability theory and decided to incorporate this into my strategy...'

By:

JC1326 When: 24 Jul 16 16:06

I'd say the OP will prove to be as clueless about Probability Theory as he is about punting, but nobody could that clueless on more than a single subject

By:

CJ70 When: 25 Jul 16 13:35

I can see probability going the same way as the AH..

By:

JC1326 When: 25 Jul 16 14:33

By:

Charlie When: 25 Jul 16 16:12

Jul 24, 2016 -- 2:20PM, mega88 wrote:

Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!

So not only do we have you two (and probably more) pretending to be different people we will soon have three. Forget probability theory you ain't got the brains for that. Try reading about Dissociative Identity Disorder that may help you.

By:

mega88 When: 25 Jul 16 17:52

Buddy is the only forumite to back up his bets! he has continuously proven his wins with screen shots of his account. As far as I'm aware JC1326 CJ70 DIGGLER CHARLIE ETC ETC have never once proven they are as successful as buddy or me or yoyo or westy.

By:

mega88 When: 25 Jul 16 17:53

By:

CJ70 When: 25 Jul 16 17:57

Jul 25, 2016 -- 5:52PM, mega88 wrote:

Buddy is the only forumite to back up his bets! he has continuously proven his wins with screen shots of his account. As far as I'm aware JC1326 CJ70 DIGGLER CHARLIE ETC ETC have never once proven they are as successful as buddy or me or yoyo or westy.

I loved the time he backed up his bets and messed up the winnings because he didn't understand Asian Handicaps. A 2-1 covers a -0.75 handicap so it must be a winner! A 2-2 draw doesn't cover the handicap so must be a loser!

Hilarious that he's still trying after that absolute embarrassment in the hope that people forget he's a fantasist.

By:

Charlie When: 25 Jul 16 18:11

mega I have to give you full marks for persistence.

Then again, persistently lying isn't considered a good trait.

By:

themover When: 25 Jul 16 19:14

By:

DirkDiggler When: 26 Jul 16 11:02

Aaaand he's still talking to himself.

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 29 Jul 16 05:41

Thanks Mega. Well said mate
1 Aug

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 29 Jul 16 05:59

The rest of you can s ck on a bit of C@#K

1.65 ▲
3.45 ▼
5.30 ▼

Match odds, Convert these - add them up , and its 1.078 or 107.8% implied probability , its not 1 or 100%

So get f ucked , IM BACK !!

1 AUG

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 29 Jul 16 06:01

Jul 24, 2016 -- 2:24PM, detraveller wrote:

Jul 24, 2016 -- 2:20PM, mega88 wrote:Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!Yeah the icing on the cake was when he said i'll be back full time Aug 1!I have sent him a contact request. I'll be honored if he accepts.

aCCEPTED

By:

CJ70 When: 29 Jul 16 09:20

Jul 29, 2016 -- 5:59AM, TheBetfairBuddy wrote:

The rest of you can s ck on a bit of C@#K1.65 ▲3.45 ▼5.30 ▼Match odds, Convert these - add them up , and its 1.078 or 107.8% implied probability , its not 1 or 100%So get f ucked , IM BACK !!1 AUG

Who's going to tell him?

By:

Capt__F When: 29 Jul 16 23:58

oh dear

By:

dukeofpuke When: 30 Jul 16 19:28

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx

By:

Pagan_born When: 31 Jul 16 07:10

Jul 29, 2016 -- 5:59AM, TheBetfairBuddy wrote:

The rest of you can s ck on a bit of C@#K1.65 ▲3.45 ▼5.30 ▼Match odds, Convert these - add them up , and its 1.078 or 107.8% implied probability , its not 1 or 100%So get f ucked , IM BACK !!1 AUG

If that's how you got 1.03 on Real, would you tell me, please, how did you get 0.22 on Man Utd in your first bet, in first post?

You converted odds, added them up, and it was 0.22?

Wow, pitty I haven't seen that match, it must have been a golden mine with sum of probabilities of 22% ...

I'm also curious about these 1.078, how did you get it? With the odds you quoted, I got 1.085. You should change your calculator... or even better, change your brain.

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 09:26

Ok ok
Only one way to find out
..results

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 09:28

1. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund 3.22 W 4-1
2. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund +1/2 1.71 W 4-1
3. Real 1.03 - back L 1-1

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 09:30

4. WesternSydney 0.15 - back Wellington +1/2 2.01

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 10:30

Wellington +1/2 now 1.73

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 11:16

Well 1-0
13th min

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 11:24

5. Melbourne City 0.90 - back City -2.5 1.83

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 11:34

Well 2-0
31st min

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 11:36

1. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund 3.22 W 4-1
2. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund +1/2 1.71 W 4-1
3. Real 1.03 - back L 1-1
4. WesternSydney 0.15 - back Wellington +1/2 2.01

5. Melbourne City 0.90 - back City -2.5 1.83

By:

TheBetfairBuddy When: 02 Aug 16 12:03

City 1-0
31st min

By:

CJ70 When: 02 Aug 16 13:01

Aug 2, 2016 -- 10:30AM, TheBetfairBuddy wrote:

Wellington +1/2 now 1.73

I should have checked this forum before betting on this game.

Betting on the same side as you was always going to end in a disaster and sure as the day is long from 2-0 up the game ended 2-3.

By:

Johnny_Mustang When: 02 Aug 16 13:03