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TheBetfairBuddy
23 Jul 16 03:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 8,220 | Blogger: TheBetfairBuddy's blog
Came across a great piece online about Probability theory and decided to incorporate this into my strategy.

1) Man Utd v Dortmund
Man Utd probability 0.22
I tipped Dortmund at $3.22 & Dortmund +1/2 $1.71
Result : ManUtd 1-4 Dortmund


2) Real Salt v SanJose
Real probability 1.03
Tip : Real win $2.00

I'm back full time 1 Aug.

Your no 1 & biggest name T9
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Report JC1326 July 23, 2016 10:33 AM BST
Real 1-1 San Jose. We look forward to you being a mug full-time.
Report Charlie July 23, 2016 10:55 AM BST
Came across a great piece online about Probability theory and decided to incorporate this into my strategy.

2) Real Salt v SanJose
Real probability 1.03
Tip : Real win $2.00


I suggest you go back and re-read the article as you don't get probabilities over 1.
Report tenpins July 23, 2016 11:02 AM BST
What was the probability of this going tits up in record time?
Report gotitwrong- July 23, 2016 12:04 PM BST
1.00
Report betting_masta July 23, 2016 4:15 PM BST
how is this worked out please
Report detraveller July 24, 2016 12:43 PM BST
There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.

Probability by definition is between 0 and 1.

How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?
Report mega88 July 24, 2016 2:20 PM BST

Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:


There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?


Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in  year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!

Report mega88 July 24, 2016 2:21 PM BST
Report detraveller July 24, 2016 2:24 PM BST

Jul 24, 2016 -- 2:20PM, mega88 wrote:


Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in  year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!


Yeah the icing on the cake was when he said i'll be back full time Aug 1!

I have sent him a contact request. I'll be honored if he accepts.

Report JC1326 July 24, 2016 2:38 PM BST
The OP said he read about Probability Theory and is going to use it in his punting strategy, and the first bet has a probability of 1.03. This is just giving you a taste of what's to come
Report detraveller July 24, 2016 4:01 PM BST
'Came across a great piece online about Probability theory and decided to incorporate this into my strategy...'
Report JC1326 July 24, 2016 4:06 PM BST
I'd say the OP will prove to be as clueless about Probability Theory as he is about punting, but nobody could that clueless on more than a single subject
Report CJ70 July 25, 2016 1:35 PM BST
I can see probability going the same way as the AH.. Laugh
Report JC1326 July 25, 2016 2:33 PM BST
Laugh
Report Charlie July 25, 2016 4:12 PM BST

Jul 24, 2016 -- 2:20PM, mega88 wrote:


Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in  year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!


So not only do we have you two (and probably more) pretending to be different people we will soon have three. Forget probability theory you ain't got the brains for that. Try reading about Dissociative Identity Disorder that may help you.

Report mega88 July 25, 2016 5:52 PM BST
Buddy is the only forumite to back up his bets! he has continuously proven his wins with screen shots of his account. As far as I'm aware JC1326 CJ70 DIGGLER CHARLIE ETC ETC have never once proven they are as successful as buddy or me or yoyo or westy.
Report mega88 July 25, 2016 5:53 PM BST
Report CJ70 July 25, 2016 5:57 PM BST

Jul 25, 2016 -- 5:52PM, mega88 wrote:


Buddy is the only forumite to back up his bets! he has continuously proven his wins with screen shots of his account. As far as I'm aware JC1326 CJ70 DIGGLER CHARLIE ETC ETC have never once proven they are as successful as buddy or me or yoyo or westy.


I loved the time he backed up his bets and messed up the winnings because he didn't understand Asian Handicaps. A 2-1 covers a -0.75 handicap so it must be a winner! A 2-2 draw doesn't cover the handicap so must be a loser!

Hilarious that he's still trying after that absolute embarrassment in the hope that people forget he's a fantasist.

Report Charlie July 25, 2016 6:11 PM BST
mega I have to give you full marks for persistence.

Then again, persistently lying isn't considered a good trait.
Report themover July 25, 2016 7:14 PM BST
Laugh
Report DirkDiggler July 26, 2016 11:02 AM BST
Aaaand he's still talking to himself.


Laugh
Report TheBetfairBuddy July 29, 2016 5:41 AM BST
Thanks Mega. Well said mate
1 Aug Scared
Report TheBetfairBuddy July 29, 2016 5:59 AM BST
The rest of you can s ck on a bit of C@#K

1.65 ▲
3.45 ▼
5.30 ▼

Match odds, Convert these - add them up , and its 1.078 or 107.8% implied probability , its not 1 or 100%

So get f ucked , IM BACK !!

1 AUG
Report TheBetfairBuddy July 29, 2016 6:01 AM BST

Jul 24, 2016 -- 2:24PM, detraveller wrote:


Jul 24, 2016 --  2:20PM, mega88 wrote:Jul 24, 2016 -- 12:43PM, detraveller wrote:There is nothing in the world that can happen with a probability of 1.03.Probability by definition is between 0 and 1. How do you come up with a probability of 1.03? Forget about how you incorporate the theory. How do you come up with that probability?Listen up lad! The op's eaten cake on 5 Continents and just had honeymoons in Texas and Fiji courtesy of his winnings on here, if he knows anything its how to make big money year in  year out. Probability theory is REAL and buddy knows what he is doing. T9 THE GREATEST TIPSTER will return Aug 1 so keep checking in for his tips!!Yeah the icing on the cake was when he said i'll be back full time Aug 1!I have sent him a contact request. I'll be honored if he accepts.


aCCEPTED

Report CJ70 July 29, 2016 9:20 AM BST

Jul 29, 2016 -- 5:59AM, TheBetfairBuddy wrote:


The rest of you can s ck on a bit of C@#K1.65 ▲3.45 ▼5.30 ▼Match odds, Convert these - add them up , and its 1.078 or 107.8% implied probability , its not 1 or 100%So get f ucked , IM BACK !!1 AUG


Who's going to tell him?

Report Capt__F July 29, 2016 11:58 PM BST
oh dear
Report dukeofpuke July 30, 2016 7:28 PM BST
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx
Report Pagan_born July 31, 2016 7:10 AM BST

Jul 29, 2016 -- 5:59AM, TheBetfairBuddy wrote:


The rest of you can s ck on a bit of C@#K1.65 ▲3.45 ▼5.30 ▼Match odds, Convert these - add them up , and its 1.078 or 107.8% implied probability , its not 1 or 100%So get f ucked , IM BACK !!1 AUG


If that's how you got 1.03 on Real, would you tell me, please, how did you get 0.22 on Man Utd in your first bet, in first post?

You converted odds, added them up, and it was 0.22?

Wow, pitty I haven't seen that match, it must have been a golden mine with sum of probabilities of 22% ... Devil

I'm also curious about these 1.078, how did you get it? With the odds you quoted, I got 1.085. Confused You should change your calculator... or even better, change your brain. Love

Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 9:26 AM BST
Ok ok
Only one way to find out
..results
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 9:28 AM BST
1. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund 3.22 W 4-1
2. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund +1/2 1.71 W 4-1
3. Real 1.03 - back L 1-1
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 9:30 AM BST
4. WesternSydney 0.15 - back Wellington +1/2 2.01
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 10:30 AM BST
Wellington +1/2 now 1.73
Excited
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 11:16 AM BST
Well 1-0
13th min
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 11:24 AM BST
5. Melbourne City 0.90 - back City -2.5 1.83
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 11:34 AM BST
Well 2-0
31st min
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 11:36 AM BST
1. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund 3.22 W 4-1
2. ManUtd 0.22 - back Dortmund +1/2 1.71 W 4-1
3. Real 1.03 - back L 1-1
4. WesternSydney 0.15 - back Wellington +1/2 2.01

5. Melbourne City 0.90 - back City -2.5 1.83
Report TheBetfairBuddy August 2, 2016 12:03 PM BST
City 1-0
31st min
Report CJ70 August 2, 2016 1:01 PM BST

Aug 2, 2016 -- 10:30AM, TheBetfairBuddy wrote:


Wellington +1/2 now 1.73


I should have checked this forum before betting on this game.

Betting on the same side as you was always going to end in a disaster and sure as the day is long from 2-0 up the game ended 2-3.

Report Johnny_Mustang August 2, 2016 1:03 PM BST
Laugh
Report Capt__F August 3, 2016 10:49 PM BST
patience
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