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Making a living on 2.5 goals
Making a living on 2.5 goals
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GTFI 01 Dec 15 21:38
the thing is, last month made over 1k.... did i look at the odds? no i took whatever was on offer... so why change a winning model, end of in my opinion. dont fix what isn't broke you have either been lucky over a short time frame or your model is picking out value bets. It's that simple. If something should be priced at 1.01 and you are getting 1.02 you will win long term |
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i took odds of 1.25 for Barca at weekend, and odds of evens+ for other games, if the prog says take it, i take it....
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I am not saying anything good or bad about your program , I'm not even having a go at you. If you think Barca were too high at 1.25 that's fair enough. If you are bluffing you will be caught out long term. If your program is picking them out for you , well and good if it works long term
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05/Dec/15 Germany - Bund' 2 SC Freiburg v Union Berlin
05/Dec/15 Italy - Serie B Cagliari Calcio v Calcio Como Saturdays games, perhaps you would like to explain which ones are value or not as the case may be? If it wins, does it matter if it was value? if it loses, it doesn't matter if it was value or not |
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I agree with dlarsoff it is all about value, I'm sure we have all had bad value bets that have won and good value that have gone down. Deciding what is value is the hard bit but I'm still happy doing a tissue for a lot of events before looking at the prices.
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It's nothing to do with whether it wins or loses. You will know by your results long term. I know **** all about those teams so I don't know.
But for example if liverpool are ten to one to beat Watford that's great value to loads. If the are 1/10 it's the opposite. If they are 9/1 they are still value but at some point as that price goes down it ceases to be value. |
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The thing is, if you say, example only, stoke v WBA, 1.1 for 2 goals.... and then again 1.1 for 2 goals in an Austrian or dutch game...
WBA you would say no chance, not taking those odds, yet in the other 2 leagues you expect it to be between 1.1-1.2.... if it wns, great, if it loses, no amount of value will cover th |
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Value only exists in supermarkets.
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I agree in principle, but saying dont take a bet because it is a few tcks too low, is ninesense, clearly you would take 1.05 for 2 goals even if it was kids on the playground.... but "average" odds + or minus a few ticks to me is "value"
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wouldn't take* typo
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I think you need to read through the thread again , I never said don't take a bet because the odds are too low. If fact I said value can be found at 1.01 as well as 100/1
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i was referring to ken, sorry bud
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oh ok no worries and good luck
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think I agree with the other guys GTFI , ur over 1.5 mkts prices were far too tite for any decent profit ,the 2.5 thread ur playin is all jus luck ,no guaranteed profits like my way of laying horses etc which r below the bookie back price ,e/w in 5-7 horse races r a giveaway ,
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I guess time will tell.... i agree with no guaranteed profits, but "all just luck" is debatable, as it is all based on the last 5 gmaes AND the seasonal average goals, so there are quite a few formulas in there.
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ye ,I get u don't jus pull the teams outta hat but on a bad day all ur selections can go wrong then it wud take weeks probably months to claw it back and unless uve got an endless pit of cash u will give up quickly rather than spend grand after grand
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What's horses got to do with goals ? Gtfi has developed a system with a good strike rate, let's give this some time guys then make our decisions. A lot of effort goes into this. Bring on the boooooomsssssss
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First bet lost. So wait for weekend see how it gets on. Overs is hard to crack let's give it some time.
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There is a KP article in todays RFO , which basically says your stats are a waste of time , because over a season ,the expected goals for a teams matches will tend to the average goals in matches in that competition.Which means that teams are involved in high scoring matches in the first half of the season will trend away from their 'high scores' , just as they are being highlighted as picks in systems and you are avoiding lower scoring teams , just as they are avoiding your radar.
Hope he is wrong for you GTFI |
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At the end of the day there are to many variables in a game of football. Whatever can happen will happen. You could spend your whole life studying stasticstics and the game still go against everything you thought would not happen. Seen it too many times. The road to profits lie mostly not with the game but with how you control yourself mentally and your bank balance and unfortunately most people will never master that.
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gotitwrong uve gotitright and mega the comment was horses etc ,ie football ,I have guaranteed methods on football but they aint the most straightforward and not regular , but guaranteed , u give the 2.5 a chance , and we"l c whos havin turkey at chrimbo
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if you had , or have such a method, the only way of proof is posting pre KO's etc. That;snot meant in any nasty way, just a comment.
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the only GUARANTEED way is to save all the cash you would normally bet with until Xmas, that'll buy the Turkey a few times over lol
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Bernard Matthews is his otherusername
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lmfao... nice one...
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gtfi ,the next time Ladbrokes do the shop offer on the usual 4 markets at 25 per mkt x 6 shops , hits and commie will come to bout 100 quid , lay btts mkt for 200 at 1.8/1.9 ,wen it goes to 1-0 early lay for another x amount at 1.3ish depending on times ,if both score it aint hard to cash in the free bets for 20 a pop x 6 x 4 = 480 real money or 100 real money if both don't score ,tend to go draw for WDW , 0-0 correct score ,draw ht/ft and no goalscorer on 1st scorer mkt and u can always have 10 on 0-0 jus in case ,guaranteed at least a ton
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ps the sadcrooks promo is usually btts mbs
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using offers is a sure fire winner, agree, like 365 do £50 pre and inplay. back on one 365, lay on BF, then split the difference for the same market, ie, one loses, the other wins as cash back...blah blah ....
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u only get a free 50 from 365 , shop offers is unlimited and its guaranteed GTFI , if u guys wanna make guaranteed cash on footy coopins ,get urself a coral priority account with 500 mbs on 5 outta 6 , total giveaway with 5 x 1.1ish and last 1 at bout 1.5 ,remember put different ko times ,make about 200 a coopin guaranteed
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sounds interesting, if i had the time to go round the shops mate.
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il let u know nx time its comin round , I just hate giving bookies money ,I love putting everything in my favour , we have about 12 shops in my city so easy pickings , gud luck with the 2.5s but think il give it a miss ,,too risky if u have a bad day or 2
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okies, no worries bud. snooze time for me, so take care all and chat more tomorrow .... next games are Saturday poor week for games this week :(
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Citeh came god for me and even better i never got a chance to trade out as goals came late
The Spanish cup game are good prices tonight but first legs but still maybe worth a punt |
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Cadiz v Real Madrid - Total Goals - Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/15 UD Logrones v Sevilla - Total Goals - Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 seville 8/11 just for the win , valencia 10/11 |
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Barakaldo v Valencia - Total Goals - Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 odds seem high even for first legs |
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On what basis do you asses this match at
2.5 overs other than odds seem high? |
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maybe they are far better sides
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the away sides that is and excellent value , odds high due to first leg and bookies think they may take it easy
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AEK athens 4-0 up
16 corners to 1 . 73 % possession 63 mins gone should be more here |