Football
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As explained in the 1.5goals thread i will no longer be posting in there.
During the past 4.5 weeks my prog' has made potentially over £1000 on the 2.5 goals market (Using £100 stakes)
With the 1.5 goals market letting down the overall profits i am concentrating on the 2.5 goals market and will try to post the games in advance.
I hope that perhaps one or two of you will follow the thread and hopefully give it a bash yourself, REMEMBER, only ever bet what you can afford to lose.
Also remember it is an electronic machine that picks the games, (yes with my input of formulas) but it does NOT know if it is p1ssing down of half the team is out with flu etc.
Here's hoping to December also returning a further £1000 using the same formulas etc....
Goodluck anyone following and here's hoping for a Merry Xmas to one and all, hopefully somewhat richer
Rememeber - ALL profit and loss will be to a level £100 stake to each "Over 2.5 goals" bet.
During the past 4.5 weeks my prog' has made potentially over £1000 on the 2.5 goals market (Using £100 stakes)
With the 1.5 goals market letting down the overall profits i am concentrating on the 2.5 goals market and will try to post the games in advance.
I hope that perhaps one or two of you will follow the thread and hopefully give it a bash yourself, REMEMBER, only ever bet what you can afford to lose.
Also remember it is an electronic machine that picks the games, (yes with my input of formulas) but it does NOT know if it is p1ssing down of half the team is out with flu etc.
Here's hoping to December also returning a further £1000 using the same formulas etc....
Goodluck anyone following and here's hoping for a Merry Xmas to one and all, hopefully somewhat richer
Rememeber - ALL profit and loss will be to a level £100 stake to each "Over 2.5 goals" bet.
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December - PnL will be monthly....
Bet 1. 01/Dec/15 English Conf' North - Brackley Town v Curzon Ashton (Over 2.5 goals obviously is the bet) |
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ill follow this , over 2.5 is the bet i do daily
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30/11/2015 21:37 Placed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6
30/11/2015 21:36 Placed Bet Over 3.5 Goals @ 4/7 30/11/2015 21:32 Closed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 30/11/2015 21:32 Closed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 30/11/2015 20:05 Placed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 30/11/2015 19:54 Placed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ Evs 30/11/2015 19:51 Closed Bet Over 1.5 Goals @ 4/6 30/11/2015 19:38 Placed Bet Over 1.5 Goals @ 4/6 30/11/2015 19:20 Closed Bet Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/8 30/11/2015 18:39 Placed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ Evs 30/11/2015 18:39 Placed Bet Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/8 30/11/2015 18:06 Placed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 30/11/2015 17:48 Closed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 30/11/2015 17:35 Closed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/8 30/11/2015 17:35 Closed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 30/11/2015 17:35 Closed Bet Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/13 after all these today on spread ex im bang on even money  not many decent games so i tried to just picked a load ended up a few quid up and stuck profit on the a few games that lost im normally more selective , but just done a few quid on each for interest on todays game |
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lol, that's why you are called "the chaser"? I must be honest, i actually love the overs AND unders markets, especially when they seem overpriced.
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GOOD LUCK
FOLLOWING |
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cheers bud. and ditto
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only ever bet what you can afford to lose.
INCORRECT!! Only bet when the odds are in your favour! |
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LOL!
Ken....  GL will follow with interest |
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hope they cont' to do well, gtfi t c
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i have started well on my own mini 'system,' concentrating partly on the amount of shots on target in games and dependent on times, specially when a fav has gone a goal down but are having nearly all of the shots on target....seems okay so far tho im aware it wont always work...
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Citeh-Hull overs but only 1/2 ish
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interesting, i always thought your >1.5 was more reliable than the >2.5 but i've never really followed it that closely. good to see someone posting some helpful info though
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Just gone overs on the Middlesboro Everton game at 2.14
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'I realise quite a few bet on "if the odds are in your favour" but in my opinion, a win is a win regardless of the odds, if you expect it to win, then £50 for overs is better than wanting the odds to be in your favour and not taking the bet. At the end of the day, if you don't expect it to win, you shouldn't be betting on it, regardless of the odds
We are all entitled to OUR opinion, so i respect yours and wish you and the rest of the guys well regardless of what, or how, you choose your games and odds.' GTFI , that is daft. Look at your over 1.5 goals thread , lots of winning bets , but it showed a loss , because the odds weren't big enough to cover the losses. |
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gl steam
agree giw... if waiting for odds of 1.3+ perhaps the results would have been more favourable... but also quick goal games would have been lost |
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maidstone was a 1.5 gls tonight.... so there you go if you want it bud,, still 0-0 and odds rising
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Laid at 1.4 for a profit either way.
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no such luck with mine mate, all or nothing
 and wp btw |
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GTFI , that is daft.
Look at your over 1.5 goals thread , lots of winning bets , but it showed a loss , because the odds weren't big enough to cover the losses. I rest my case. |
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Thank you GTFI
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also the more people blindly following you, the more you are collectively driving the price down, making it constantly more difficult to make the profit.. so in the end it has to always be about the price. the probability of the event happening, compared to the odds
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3-0, but disallowed, still 2-0 :(
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yes, didn't mean to sound negative, your approach is more scientific than mine and i applaud you for trying to help others but it becomes increasingly more difficult to do. especially in the markets where there isn't huge liquidty
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I agree mate, but the leagues i have in the prog are MAINLY the top 2 div's of each top country
italy - spain - england - germany etc... and as 2.5goals is a popular market, usually plenty of liquid, only on quiet nights like tonight are the lower leagues needed |
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GTFI affecting the market?
Don't be silly. |
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some of those over 1.5 goals markets in brazil or elsewhere didn't have much liquidity when i looked and i know i blindly lumped on one in the summer when there wasn't much else on. luckily it won
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Look at your over 1.5 goals thread , lots of winning bets , but it showed a loss , because the odds weren't big enough to cover the losses.
Doesn't mean the odds were not value just too low. |
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Just too low??? He lost money because he wasn't getting value , it's that simple. Value can be found at 1.01 or 100/1 , nothing to do with low/high odds.
You may get lucky for a while but if you are not getting value over the long term you are doomed. |
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ok, last post from me tonight, as we are all at risk of repeating ourselves and becoming boring but it adds up to needing to factor a minimum price into the model, so a rating of 3.5 needs a minimum price of x, a rating of 3.75 needs a price of y etc. i'm probably not telling you anything you haven't thought of already but it's my 2p worth. gl and gn
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I don't agree with that. If GTFI does as ken always wants and works out the percentage chance of a game ending in overs and then getting odds above his percentage estimate he will still lose if his judgement is carp.
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not the best of starts, but plenty more to come that WILL put it into profits over the month.
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the thing is, last month made over 1k.... did i look at the odds? no i took whatever was on offer... so why change a winning model, end of in my opinion. dont fix what isn't broke
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Dec 1, 2015 -- 9:18PM, kenilworth wrote:
GTFI affecting the market?Don't be silly. Snooooooze time ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Do you think you do? |
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bigmo 01 Dec 15 21:37
I don't agree with that. If GTFI does as ken always wants and works out the percentage chance of a game ending in overs and then getting odds above his percentage estimate he will still lose if his judgement is carp. It's not a case of agreeing with anyone. If you are backing odds that are poor value you can't win long term. It's nothing to do with how low odds are. |
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Affect the market? no, i don't.. would take 12 months of constant winners before that was even a remote probability
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