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Surefire world cup 100-1 winner - cannot lose!

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Replies: 400
By:
Charlton2005
When: 08 Jul 14 19:30
well then either you're a mug and spyker is average or you are average and spyker is indeed a genius...

you decide
By:
Glenn Quagmire
When: 08 Jul 14 19:41
Wasn't meant to be a dig at spyker.... a great bet, like I said. Don't disagree with that.

Just funny how some people are oblivious to anything going on outside of the so-called "best league in the world"
By:
spyker
When: 08 Jul 14 20:40
Glenn - i kind of agree with you which is why i was amazed that he was 100's and why he had to shorten during the course of the wc! I was reading an article the other day and he is the 10th most expensive footballer ever yet the transfer was barely mentioned over here - he was 10m more than Falcao. Pre wc there was article after article on neymar and messi and even falcao but very little on him from the press and i don't even think any betting sites mentioned him - though I'd be interested if any did tip him The most staggering thing is that he was offered to Man utd in 2010 for £5m but they went for Bebo instead!
By:
spyker
When: 08 Jul 14 20:41
* bebe
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 08 Jul 14 21:44
they need to rest muller for the 2nd half Plain
By:
Glenn Quagmire
When: 08 Jul 14 21:48
Think Luiz is out of the running though!
By:
spyker
When: 08 Jul 14 21:49
If they do then we've escaped a hail of bullets! All things considered if it ends like this then not too bad - Luiz def out now and this has been a team performance so no individual outstanding.
By:
spyker
When: 08 Jul 14 21:49
I thought Col would do this to them and they bloody should have!
By:
spyker
When: 08 Jul 14 22:55
All things considered pretty unscathed I'd have thought. Germans aren't in final because of 1 player- neur didn't keep them in game and Muller wasn't the catalyst or owt. James gone out in the betting but not sure why - just about still in the boot but Muller only needs 1 more.
By:
lingbleed
When: 08 Jul 14 23:26
dont forget about the little genius ,if messi makes the final ,am sorry win or lose he will get it ,simple he's a good image for fifa ,and he's well known so a good poster boy for fifa ,and yes am on messi top scorer and the argies outright plus the double ,so if the argies go out tomorrow ,i do hope ur bet comes good
By:
spyker
When: 08 Jul 14 23:45
As said earleir the whole bet now revolves around Arg not qualifying - or at least qualifying without Messi doing much (if that is possible!). I'd happily trade in the 'boot' win for the 'ball' - I'll see how the market settle down but Germans being backed obv - i can't help feeling that if Holland get there being a south american will help james!
By:
duffy
When: 09 Jul 14 00:14
Spyker

You've had a lucky escape in one sense tonight with the germans scoring 7 and muller only getting one of them, but in another sense you've had a bit of a nightmare because the thing you was worried about...happened, and that was a "big event", if the argies win it then messi will get the golden ball, but now you've also got the prospect of if germany win it it's highly likely that muller will win it, because aside from scoring at least 5 goals the powers that be and journos would feel justified in marking the historical performance we saw tonight with as many plaudits as possible.

For your bet you wanted a few more non event games (relatively speaking) but you got a game that provided one of the greatest stories of all time!!!!

Badly need the dutch to win it now I think.
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 09 Jul 14 08:02
I don't think that last nights performance makes Muller a lot more likely than Rodriguez (as it stands now). Yes he scored and done ok and the overall TEAM performance was excellent, he hardly carried them to victory though and I don't think that will stand out to the voters. If the Germans hammer whoever in the final that will change though especially if he scores another one or two.

I think it relies on Messi myself, Neuer will more than likely win the golden glove and Robben after apologising for his diving shouldn't be given it purely because of his diving imo. I still think as it is now, Rodriguez is still in a very good position.

Bring on the boring 0-0 tonight imo....
By:
spyker
When: 09 Jul 14 09:47
If you'd of said before the semis '1 of these will end 7-1 do you want to trade out of all the bet' I prob would have so in that sense I've had a lucky escape. Germany won as much for brazil being carp (and official fifa report says as much) but yes if Muller gets a couple in final (assuming Arg don't get there) then yes it would look dodgy. I've kind of accepted that the bet will lose as like i said i thought on elimination it would be pretty dead but all hope is not lost yet!
By:
duffy
When: 09 Jul 14 12:01
All hope is not lost, certainly not, there's also another line of thought though on a negative side of things that may be taken into account, and that is the fact that brazil have been poor through-out but with all their faults that were present against colombia, certainly in the 2nd half....still saw off a decent colombia side that included Rodriguez but then went on to get obliterated by a germany side that were able to expose all their frailties that rodriguez et al couldn't do previously....with hindsight that may count against him to a degree.

When all said and done, Rodriguez has shone but as the OP says, colombia were in an easy group so he had the chance, he then was able to get them past a poor Uruguayan side that had themselves beaten a poor England side and a poor Italian side...and that's where the story ends....he hasn't draggged them on to further glories above and beyond their means.

I'm only playing devils advocate here by the way, just trying to think of the questions the voters will have to ask themselves.
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 09 Jul 14 12:30
Agree to a certain degree, but Messi has hardly been outstanding against Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria and the swiss, likewise with Muller. I think whichever way anyone looks at it Rodriguez has been the better and most consistent player who has really shone. Depends a lot if voters want to give it to Messi who is apparently the 'best player in the world' or someone who is far less known worldwide.
By:
spyker
When: 09 Jul 14 15:58
Just thought I'd dispel a myth about this market that seems to be prevalent and even shaping the market now and that is that the winner is the 'best' player from the winning team. Only 3/8 have ever been from winners and the last of those was Romario in 1994 - the other 2 were Rossi and Maradonna so no quibbles - 2 weren't from teams in final (semis).
I'm not saying the winner won't be from the winning team just that it doesn't have any real baring, i watched in disbelief as a couple of germans were bet last night, only to obv drift this morning - though still not to their 'real' price!
By:
dlarssonf
When: 09 Jul 14 16:28
not really sure how you can say what a "real price" is considering nobody knows exactly who is voting and how many actually have a vote.  I always find markets like this impossible to predict price wise, it's just guessing to me.  I understand some may see it different but its not something I could ever get involved in betting wise.

Having said that I have enjoyed this thread and although Rodriguez has been brilliant this tournie, I am still cheering him on based purely on this thread and the well thought out reasoning behind.  Hope it cops for you spykerGrin
By:
spyker
When: 09 Jul 14 16:41
not really sure how you can say what a "real price"

Yeah i know, hence the inverted commas - while i can def see Muller winning it, Neur possibly but unlikely as he hasn't had much to do (and a few other reasons) i wouldn't be backing Kroos and Hummles at 999 now! Thanks for the support - i may need it after in the likely event of him not winning!
By:
joe39
When: 09 Jul 14 23:07
If I had to vote after 90 minutes on man of the match for Holland vs Argentina, I would be looking for "none of the above".
Rodriguez still alive here.
By:
spyker
When: 09 Jul 14 23:57
Well i was quite prepared to come on and concede if Arg won but messi was cack tonight (other than a couple of runs). He's obv still in pole and James' star is fading but the fat lady isn't looking for her mouthwash just yet!
By:
sofiakenny
When: 10 Jul 14 00:10
yup spikey..but both runners muller and messy are in the finalo...gl pal.
By:
Clarky9
When: 10 Jul 14 00:14
Need another stalemate in final imo and we're in clover...
By:
Charlton2005
When: 10 Jul 14 00:21
All hope is not lost, certainly not, there's also another line of thought though on a negative side of things that may be taken into account, and that is the fact that brazil have been poor through-out but with all their faults that were present against colombia, certainly in the 2nd half....still saw off a decent colombia side that included Rodriguez but then went on to get obliterated by a germany side that were able to expose all their frailties that rodriguez et al couldn't do previously....with hindsight that may count against him to a degree.

sadly, a well reasoned analysis. let's hope the voters are too old and thick to use this line.
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 10 Jul 14 08:00
Messi done nothing to enhance his chances last night, a quiet final from him and he really shouldn't be anywhere near winning it, and I honestly reckon Rodriguez has an outstanding chance. Could all be on Muller if he does something, but he hasn't been a standout as they have played as a very decent team. Couldn't have asked for any more (or less) last night, an excellent game!
By:
Clarky9
When: 10 Jul 14 09:09
Can't believe Messi is 11/8 fav for it. I know he's scored 4 goals, but they were all in group games against sub standard opposition and wasn't like he even played well..
By:
spyker
When: 10 Jul 14 09:35
The brazilian side that beat Col had neymar and Silva in it so it wasn't the same side and Bra with those 2 in it almost certainly wouldn't have beat ger but it wouldn't have been 7-1 but i get the point! I don't think many could argue that James was the player of wc up to the 1/4s and neither Muller nor messi has done all that much to improve their chances (relative to where they were at 1-4/s) since.
I'm under no illusions though but the bet has done most of what it was designed to do, kept my interest in the wc and made me £250 odd whatever happens from here. I think it has to be unlikely that it will win now but it's been a good craic!
By:
Magic__Daps
When: 10 Jul 14 09:37
If he scores a wonder goal in the first half of the final that will stick in voters minds I would think, along with 2 other good goals from him. Rodriguez has pished all over him but got knocked out early, with probably the goal of the tournament and also the dink over the keeper that if Messi or Neymar done it it would have been on sky sports for a week and at the start of every fixture after.

That's half the battle - do they want a 'lesser' player to win it who got knocked out in the quarters or their 'best player in the world'?
By:
spyker
When: 10 Jul 14 09:48
Oh and a little horsey tip for you. I'm not claiming inside info or that this horse will win doing handstands but it has bags of improvement (run very green all 3 starts) and comes from a trainer that has done me well in this sort of scenario. I've been waiting for it to run for a month or so and it's called Mosche 820 Epsom and at 12's is worth a speculative tenner - might be backed might not but I've found with Morrsion those that drift but come back in do well. Prob wins by half the track or last by as far!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 10 Jul 14 10:52
I slightly disagree about Muller having done little. Don't get me wrong, I was delighted to see him only manage 1/7th of the German's goals(!) but he seemed to be thereabouts on all the others too and somebody will be given more credit than they ought to - Muller would be easy choice imo, although personally I'd say Neuer is their best player. I think you were being a bit dismissive of him in your post on the other thread, although I take your point about keepers.

I'm more into Hamez for top scorer than the Golden Ball anyway, but I've kept him as my best winner in that market too.
By:
spyker
When: 10 Jul 14 11:14
I know what you mean about Muller and it prob didn't come across exactly how i meant to - my point is that he was behind james at 1/4's and hasn't performed outstandingly enough to def overtake him. I certainly couldn't argue if he won it with a good performance in final, if he didn't perform well (and won it) then i could argue!.
And Neur - i just remember the debate around Kahn and he was being talked of as GB winner early on and even then people were saying a gk has to perform exceptionally to win it and while neur has been the best keeper could you honestly say you will remember his performances as very good or the reason Germany made it to the final? I may well be wrong as it is all a bit guessy from here but personally I'd be disappointed if Neur was proclaimed the best player at this world cup!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 10 Jul 14 12:07
I should have said I don't see Neuer winning it either, but I have it between Messi, our boy, and take your pick from Muller or Neuer, with the former seeming much the likeliest. Of course I don't think Germany are there because of Neuer, and I'd be disappointed if he won too, but the lack of credible candidates has to be in his favour. I mean Messi is sub-6/4 ffs - I love him but he'd be winning it on reputation, not performance. That said, if my bets are to be scuppered, I hope he smashes 3 past Neuer!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 10 Jul 14 12:09
Not the use of the royal 'our boy' there. He's YOUR boy!
By:
Mikael D'Haguenet
When: 10 Jul 14 12:10
*note.

ffs.
By:
jollie
When: 10 Jul 14 14:12
if mueller score in the final and Germany win ...
By:
spyker
When: 10 Jul 14 15:30
Then he wins the golden boot and it would be rude to give him both so...........

MH - he is all of ours - well unless he wins and them he's mine allll mine! That horse is a nr so nobody loses - worth sticking in your notebook for the future.
By:
spyker
When: 11 Jul 14 18:58
10 man shortlist:

di Maria
Hummels
Kroos
Lahm
Mascherano
Messi
Muller
Neymar
Robben
James

No place for Neur
By:
spyker
When: 13 Jul 14 11:13
Today's the day.......

It appears they the voting now no longer includes the media and is done soley by the Fifa Tech Advisory group - the same people that came up with the shortlist (and Di maria!). The blurb has gone from the previously posted:

The Golden Ball will go to the competition’s best player. FIFA will announce a shortlist of ten players after the semi-finals. Members of the media and the Technical Study Group of FIFA will decide on the winner until the end of the Final (50/50).

to:

The Golden Ball will go to the competition’s best player. FIFA will announce a shortlist of ten players after the semi-finals. The Technical Study Group of FIFA will decide on the winner until the end of the Final. The players who finish second and third will receive the adidas Silver Ball and adidas Bronze Ball respectively.
Presented to the outstanding player at each FIFA World Cup™ since 1982, the adidas Golden Ball award has always highlighted truly exceptional players.  The Technical Study Group of FIFA will decide on the winner until the end of the Final


Either way performances in the final will count so in theory there is no 'Zidane' again. The most likely scenario i see is not a good 1 for the bets but heyho - Muller to score a goal and win golden boot and Germany the wc and messi to put in a solid enough performance for FIFA to give it to him as consolation but mainly because nobody would really mind (esp at FIFA!).
It's been a great ride whatever happens, profit made and James has performed above and beyond and will prob now go one to be the next megastar - well as long as he isn't kicked off the pitch anyhow! Good luck with your bets today and here's hoping for a boring 0-0 and as i said on another thread no memorable incidents other than Messi and Muller running into eachother in the 3rd minute and knocking eachother out!
By:
duffy
When: 13 Jul 14 11:21
Laugh
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 13 Jul 14 11:26
Scored some gems and is an exciting player. I don't get why they called him Hamas, bit rude isn't it.
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