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I have been laying 0-0's for the last 6 months now and doing really well and have made a comfortably profit of £5,000 in that time. I generally lay the 0-0 with a stake of £700 at either 15 or 11 winning on average £50 per bet, and only have 2 bets a day. Yes i've taken the odd hit now and again but never bet more than £700 and always keep a betting kitty and normally only take out £200 a week. This week though disaster, my pot leaves me with only £50!
I lost on:
Saudi Arabia v Argentina 0-0
Holland v Germany 0-0
Anzi v Rostov 0-0
Anderlecht v Kortrijk (cashed on 85 mins) 1-0 91min goal
Tomsk v Ufa 0-0
Nightmare
I lost on:
Saudi Arabia v Argentina 0-0
Holland v Germany 0-0
Anzi v Rostov 0-0
Anderlecht v Kortrijk (cashed on 85 mins) 1-0 91min goal
Tomsk v Ufa 0-0
Nightmare
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Replies: 78
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Well then you're a dimmock aren't you.
2 friendlies, 2 russian games and a game you lost your nerve on. I count 5 rookie mistakes. Only yourself to blame. |
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I have just come in and lost big time on Tomsk o-o too, have every sympathy with you.
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1st time i've agreed with anything you have written mrfishfingers
i'm in shock |
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op change tack to over 1.5.
I am sure you keep records,if not you should.If so check back and see how you would have fared if you were on over 1.5 instead of 0-0,you should get a surprise. I know the pain was at it for a long time,until I saw the light.Also less stress on 1.5 and often chance to get out,hope this helps. |
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I lost on Anzhi, Zulte Waregem, Juventus, Criciuma, Lillestrom, Wormatia Worms, Plzen Youth and Bolton U21's if it's any consolation!!!
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I do keep records so will look back. Are you saying I should back or lay 0-0 Punting for Profit?
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whether they are russian games or any sort of games is irrelevant
All that matters if you are doing the same bet for 6 months is that you are laying at value prices As it is i expect you laying 0-0 regardless of odds as it is an unlikely scoreline in any given match and you get to watch the match hoping for a goal to be scored at any time which is more enjoyable than hoping things don't happen. Unless you overstake you will just lose to commission long term .There is no reason at all to expect to win a penny doing this so you can't be disappointed really . |
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Sorry lay or back over 1.5 I mean
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He's saying instead of laying 0-0 in those games, back over 1.5 goals
See if they all came in, in your records and if you would have more profit |
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I also agree with Fishy on this one
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2 things spring to mind here:
1. He's still 2.5k up, so not exactly crisis time. 2. Why bother cashing out of a game after 85 minutes? If you've stayed in that long, you might as well leave it. |
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I will tell you of a genuine edge, you may use it, the majority wont.
Find a game with a low goal expectancy, if you don't price games yourself use exchanges, Asian books and spreads to find the pre game odds then if there's been two goals or more in the first half but the goal expectancy is still low (i.e if 0-0 was 9 pre game and if it had remained 0-0 at ht the 0-0 price would have been 3.25 (ish) at ht and the current score price is that price to lay) lay. Over time that is still a winning strategy but you only bet (lay) in games where the market still expects no more goals at ht, if the market has it at 4 to lay the correct score at ht you leave the bet. We wont go into the possible value backs here because the thread is just about laying 0-0. |
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Tomsk are an exception though, an overs side in an unders league. I suppose the problem is that Ufal are a very unders side, so always was a risk.
Take it on the chin, learn from it, ignore MrFishFingers, and move on. |
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i did a reverse **** up on the tomsk game if its any consolation. backed 0-0 at 17s, changed my mind and cashed out for a mighty 30p profit
 i can sympathise with the op, ive done a lot of analysis of the 0-0 market and its been pretty good for a while - lots lately, including crucially a lot where the home team were considered certainties and the 0-0 price was itself high (around 40 pre kick off) i gave up after a game involving cambuur a few weeks ago in the dutch 2nd division - looked a certainty for goals, ditto the anzhi game before that - prior to that anzhi game the last 5 games of the 2 teams involved had involved 36 goals - im buggered if that makes any sense to me. i should thank my lucky stars ive been analysing rather betting on these games - although i did have a punt on the cambuur game at half time. |
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You have to beat the prices
as Tobermory had already stated. |
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Dodging bullets.....its horrible bet. i bet there was a few layers sweating last night until Roma scored as the 0-0 was 27s pre game.You get a few up and start thinking that its an easy game then bang, your bank gets wiped
chin up fella...and find a new bet |
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ccjefc Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 734 20 Nov 12 15:03 I lost on Anzhi, Zulte Waregem, Juventus, Criciuma, Lillestrom, Wormatia Worms, Plzen Youth and Bolton U21's if it's any consolation!!! All of these games had a high goal-expectancy and in some the 0-0 was 28.0 and upwards. But, like the Dortmund v Stuttgart game a couple of Saturdays ago, anything is possible!!! |
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mrfishfingers • November 20, 2012 2:54 PM GMT
Well then you're a dimmock aren't you. 2 friendlies, 2 russian games and a game you lost your nerve on. I count 5 rookie mistakes. Only yourself to blame. Harsh, but there's no two ways about it, it's true, good point. tobermory • November 20, 2012 3:09 PM GMT whether they are russian games or any sort of games is irrelevant All that matters if you are doing the same bet for 6 months is that you are laying at value prices no price on the 0-0 lay in any friendly is value, a friendly is a friendly, no urgency to score whatsoever, a haven for fixes. |
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If you go over o0.5 you need to use a better selection method.
I already said that the games were amateur bets but consider this also, with the possible exception of Tomsk, your games were attack v defence Anzhi vs some mugs at home Anderlecht vs some mugs at home Argentina vs mugs Germany vs Holland, slight sympathy here but once you saw how Holland lined up, you knew 0-0 was their intention and should have acted accordingly. All these bets were one sided, good team vs the proverbial bus. Now consider my o0.5 bets for CL this week which my many haters will label as guesses. Val- Bayern, MANC- RM, Spartak- Barca (Laid draw-draw in barca game, but 0-0 still busts obviously) Do all six teams want to win- yes Do all six teams need to win- yes Do all six teams possess a strong attack and frail defences- three times a lady I'll be picking up my money, and march on to the weekend bets |
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lol betting on friendlies
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indeed, Dortmund was another bankbreaker.
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With these threads you always get the same naive statements about 'you just have to pick games/leagues with attacking teams and weak defences'
There is no reason to suppose you would do better laying 0-0 in Barcelona matches than Stoke matches .Yes Stoke will have more 0-0s but when they do get one you won't need to pay out 30 times your stake. |
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if you use your entire bank to lay it is simply a matter of time before you get wiped out. It is a mathematical certainty that it will happen at some point. No gambler/bookie wins every bet. But you haven't done that and you are still up 2.5k. You went on a good streak and now have hit a bad one, that's all. Look at the 6 months as a whole.
Betting on friendlies and even cup matches, where winning is not necessarily the objective for either manager and where there is no penalty (no points dropped) for not winning is a big no-no for me. Some cup games are ok but friendlies never, they can be more about trying new players, formations, exercise than winning. Some teams don't take certain cups seriously either and play weakened teams/rest players. I need to know the teams/players for these or I won't touch. A draw is never too bad a result in knockout cup games. Not losing is more important than winning. |
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GAMBLER
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Irons
I mean back over 1.5 works for me  |
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not sure about your comments re Valencia v Bayern mrfishfingers. A draw for Bayern would see them through if BATE slip up and without Ribery (possibly) they may take the draw imo
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do Barcelona need to win at Spartak? Not sure about that one either! A draw would pretty much guarantee them being top of the group going into the last match at home to Benfica (barring a victory by a couple of goals for Celtic, which would guarantee Barcelona qualify as a minimum) so although they could be expected to win not sure they need to win.
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also irons there is a tendency to do any old match when you lay 0-0,as you only need one goal,but for over 1.5 I find it makes me work that bit harder as you are looking for two,also avoid backing over 1.5 at crazy odds eg barcelona etc
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a point for Real Madrid at City guarantees them second spot going into the last match, a home match against Ajax and could guarantee them qualification should Ajax fail to get anything against Dortmund
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My advice to you and gilligan dont bet on high profile teams .. bet on ordinary teams and leagues .. all the best dude
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the mover
if you suggest that Bayern will play for a 0-0 tonight you are even thicker than I thought you were. and I already thought you so very, very thick |
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The best response in this thread is Lurkas.
The reason for failure is nothing to do with "being unlucky", it all boils down to poor bankroll management. I bet even the worst of gamblers on this forum can identify value prices, but 99.9% of them will not make a long-term profit because they don't treat their gambling as a business. There is nothing wrong with that, as for most people, it is just a bit of fun. However, if you really expected to profit from this method long-term with your current bankroll set-up, then you should really look up some articles on variance and probabiility. Here is a link which might help: http://www.scribd.com/doc/60417551/Anticipated-Losing-Runs I play poker for a living, and if I didn't abide by strict bankroll management rules, I wouldn't be able to earn a living. Without money mismanagement, bookies would be pooping themselves..............but luckily enough for them, most people don't have the discipline and focus it takes and start "chasing losses" and "lumping on team A because they are certs". If you want to continue with your method, and believe you have an edge in pricing up the 0-0 market, then to win £50 each game, you need a bankroll of approximately £30k, depending on the level of risk you are comfortable with. Best of luck and hope you get back to winning ways |
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be careful of laying 0-0's as the cold weather sets in, I don't imagine players push themselves quite as hard when the weather turns during the winter months. I mean who works as hard when they work in shty@ weather. I know I don't.
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^^^^
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i thought you were the ice king.
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ouchieee
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I lost my bank with my first ever 0-0 lay, of Holland v whoever it was in the 2010 WC final. I have never recovered.
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was it Brazil? still can't believe was 0-0. In shock still.
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