easily destroy madrid. take that back at once

TOBERMONEY: With these threads you always get the same naive statements about 'you just have to pick games/leagues with attacking teams and weak defences'

There is no reason to suppose you would do better laying 0-0 in Barcelona matches than Stoke matches .Yes Stoke will have more 0-0s but when they do get one you won't need to pay out 30 times your stake.
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Really? Barca have now gone 31 consecutive games in which they have scored at least one goal.

I sympathise with Irons75 having been there myself. I, too, was confident that laying 0-0 was a good strategy and kept a record of 'paper bets', in which I staked no actual money for 3 months but imagined I'd layed for £100 each time. I went about 30-plus games without a 'loser' before deciding to take the plunge.

You know what's coming . . . I layed 0-0 in West Ham v Blackpool for £20 @ odds of 20.00 and lost £400 first up!

However, I have not been put off by the potential long-term benefits of this strategy. I have built a sufficiently bigger bank to now revert to this method, by being very selective and mainly sticking to games that are shown live on TV and in which I have an interest and some knowledge of form, etc.

Yes, you will inevitably be 'hit' at some point, but then what other method can produce consistently winning results for relatively good reward? It's risk and reward. All gambling methods lose at some point, but can you win more than you lose and stay profitably ahead of the game?

The problem is,you need a big enough starting bank and be able to withstand a few inevitable setbacks along the way. But, with a common sense approach, knowledge of the teams you are betting on and the patience to wait for the most suitable games to come along (Barca, Real Madrid, Man Utd at home, etc, etc, it is by no means implausible to achieve a run of 30-50 consecutive winning bets by laying 0-0. Not necessarily at kick-off, but 10-20 minutes into the game as prices shorten.

And in the long-term that CAN be decently profitable.

I fully anticipate a barrage of "mug" and "fastest way to the poorhouse" type replies, but I'm with you Irons75.

Credit for being honest!

Simple fact is systems dont really work...you have to mix things up once in a while. Instinct and more instinct...rationalistic Condorcet like philosophies are meaningless!

Experience and a little luck does it for me!

Nov 20, 2012 -- 6:21PM, mrfishfingers wrote:

the mover if you suggest that Bayern will play for a 0-0 tonight you are even thicker than I thought you were.and I already thought you so very, very thick


then

3 shots on target 0-0 lump job, im flipping my bet

"You know what's coming . . . I layed 0-0 in West Ham v Blackpool for £20 @ odds of 20.00 and lost £400 first up!"

Something similar happened to me, always looks good on paper but the mentality of the gambler always plays a part. The people who bet on 0-0 always do better not because they have a more accurate idea of when a 0-0 is coming, its just that when they lose a bet they carry on - i imagine you did what i and a thousand other "system betters" did after an early catastrophe and gave up on it...

someone with a better graps of probabilty theories might be able to help here but the chances of winning 30 lay bets at 30-1 is extraordinarily high, much higher than youd think. the chances are that one "loss" in the 30 games will come at some point in the run but the chances of it coming in the last game or even the last 5 are very slim.

to make matters worse 0-0s seem to cluster, that is - you dont get any for ages then 2 or 3 come at once. Even with an edge you will be seriously knackered unless you have a very conservative staking plan... and 9 out of 10 people who try these bets dont as the wins are so small and the losses so "infrequent".

great thread though, good to see how other people see this market.

2008/09 season

Arsenal

2009

Jan 25     0-0 Cardiff   away FA Cup
Jan 31     0-0 West Ham  home
Feb  8     0-0 Spurs     away
Feb 21     0-0 Sundeland home
Feb 28     0-0 Fulham    home

That was five 0-0 draws in the space of a month,apart from the Cardiff game,the rest should have had a bucket load of goals,I can still see the most amazing misses,how because I was there,I felt the pain.

It just shows that anything can happen,what would the odds be on the above occurring,enough to buy a yacht,and the trappings.

It's all about prices. 0-0's will arrive in any league but not as they should,
like one every 15th match, but erratically, perhaps say, 40 without, then 3 from
5, overall 3 from 45, back to square 1. Layers get intoxicated by what seems like
'easy money' but eventually they arrive, and suddenly we are looking for reasons
and the only reason is the law of averages kicking in. 0-0 is (usually) the the
4th most likely result in your average match yet is (usually) the score most traded
on, therefore the most likely to be efficient. The best time to be betting on the
correct score is (IMO) during the last 30 mins play, not all the time, but a lot of
the time. GL.

ManU have gone nearly 80 matches (in all competitions) without
a 0-0.

yup id be terrified going to see a match this saturday knowing that a random bet from a random punter on betfair can influence the result

stopping yourself chasing is very difficult for most, it just goes against human nature....imagine you are settling down for race one of the cheltenham festival meeting and are anticipating a betting feast, then you lose heavily in race one, its so so hard to just walk away....having said that, of course you are 100% right in what you say

Dortmund at home a few weeks ago killed me off and as left me in trouble, they then went and score 2 in madrid and another 3 last sat.

0 0 is a dangerous bet , prob better backing it and then if its 0 0 at ht then lay it off, do this in enough games and you should show a nice profit. 1 in 3 games roughly is 0 0 at half time and the correct score 0 0 usually drops considerably.

bit like backing red on roulette, and it comes in black 12 times in a row,

I also have a rule that I won't lay any correct score after the 70th minute.If you haven't done the business before then, leave well alone.

I foolishly came unstuck with Barca in Moscow yesterday. Successfully laid 0-1 and 0-2 early in the first half for £40 profit but got greedy and went back in and laid 0-3, which was the score at half-time.

What I hadn't factored into my muddled thinking was that Spartak were incapable of scoring even a comnsolation goal and lacked the appetite to do so, while Barca were in cruise control and content to retain possession, whilst wasting 2 or 3 half chances. They really took their foot off the gas.

I should have learned from this same mistake last season, when Barca held a comfortable 2-0 lead away in the league somewhere and were just content to play keep-ball for the last half-hour.

plechy, like the 1-0 / 0-1 idea after an early goal... might try that sometime.

also last season

chelsea 3-5 arsenal

arsenal 0-0 chelsea

on 0-0s you mean?

popop - no, not 0-0's.

Plechy - not a genius - far from it. But there were some stand out bets (Leagues 1&2) that night.