Have lost £2,500 in 7 days laying 0-0

Well then you're a dimmock aren't you.

2 friendlies, 2 russian games and a game you lost your nerve on. I count 5 rookie mistakes.
Only yourself to blame.

I have just come in and lost big time on Tomsk o-o too, have every sympathy with you.

1st time i've agreed with anything you have written mrfishfingers

i'm in shock

op change tack to over 1.5.

I am sure you keep records,if not you should.If so check back and see how you would have fared if you were on over 1.5 instead of 0-0,you should get a surprise.

I know the pain was at it for a long time,until I saw the light.Also less stress on 1.5 and often chance to get out,hope this helps.

I lost on Anzhi, Zulte Waregem, Juventus, Criciuma, Lillestrom, Wormatia Worms, Plzen Youth and Bolton U21's if it's any consolation!!!

I do keep records so will look back. Are you saying I should back or lay 0-0 Punting for Profit?

whether they are russian games or any sort of games is irrelevant

All that matters if you are doing the same bet for 6 months is that you are laying at value prices

As it is i expect you laying 0-0 regardless of odds as it is an unlikely scoreline in any given match and you get to watch the match hoping for a goal to be scored at any time which is more enjoyable than hoping things don't happen.

Unless you overstake you will just lose to commission long term .There is no reason at all to expect to win a penny doing this so you can't be disappointed really .

Sorry lay or back over 1.5 I mean

He's saying instead of laying 0-0 in those games, back over 1.5 goals

See if they all came in, in your records and if you would have more profit

I also agree with Fishy on this one

2 things spring to mind here:


1. He's still 2.5k up, so not exactly crisis time.
2. Why bother cashing out of a game after 85 minutes? If you've stayed in that long, you might as well leave it.

I will tell you of a genuine edge, you may use it, the majority wont.
Find a game with a low goal expectancy, if you don't price games yourself use exchanges, Asian books and spreads to find the pre game odds then if there's been two goals or more in the first half but the goal expectancy is still low (i.e if 0-0 was 9 pre game and if it had remained 0-0 at ht the 0-0 price would have been 3.25 (ish) at ht and the current score price is that price to lay) lay. Over time that is still a winning strategy but you only bet (lay) in games where the market still expects no more goals at ht, if the market has it at 4 to lay the correct score at ht you leave the bet. We wont go into the possible value backs here because the thread is just about laying 0-0.

Tomsk are an exception though, an overs side in an unders league. I suppose the problem is that Ufal are a very unders side, so always was a risk.

Take it on the chin, learn from it, ignore MrFishFingers, and move on.

i did a reverse **** up on the tomsk game if its any consolation. backed 0-0 at 17s, changed my mind and cashed out for a mighty 30p profit

i can sympathise with the op, ive done a lot of analysis of the 0-0 market and its been pretty good for a while - lots lately, including crucially a lot where the home team were considered certainties and the 0-0 price was itself high (around 40 pre kick off)

i gave up after a game involving cambuur a few weeks ago in the dutch 2nd division - looked a certainty for goals, ditto the anzhi game before that - prior to that anzhi game the last 5 games of the 2 teams involved had involved 36 goals - im buggered if that makes any sense to me. i should thank my lucky stars ive been analysing rather betting on these games - although i did have a punt on the cambuur game at half time.

You have to beat the prices
as Tobermory had already stated.

Dodging bullets.....its horrible bet. i bet there was a few layers sweating last night until Roma scored as the 0-0 was 27s pre game.You get a few up and start thinking that its an easy game then bang, your bank gets wiped
chin up fella...and find a new bet

ccjefc     Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 734 20 Nov 12 15:03 
I lost on Anzhi, Zulte Waregem, Juventus, Criciuma, Lillestrom, Wormatia Worms, Plzen Youth and Bolton U21's if it's any consolation!!!


All of these games had a high goal-expectancy and in some the 0-0 was 28.0 and upwards.

But, like the Dortmund v Stuttgart game a couple of Saturdays ago, anything is possible!!!

mrfishfingers • November 20, 2012 2:54 PM GMT
Well then you're a dimmock aren't you.

2 friendlies, 2 russian games and a game you lost your nerve on. I count 5 rookie mistakes.
Only yourself to blame.


Harsh, but there's no two ways about it, it's true, good point.

tobermory • November 20, 2012 3:09 PM GMT
whether they are russian games or any sort of games is irrelevant

All that matters if you are doing the same bet for 6 months is that you are laying at value prices

no price on the 0-0 lay in any friendly is value, a friendly is a friendly, no urgency to score whatsoever, a haven for fixes.

If you go over o0.5 you need to use a better selection method.
I already said that the games were amateur bets but consider this also,
with the possible exception of Tomsk, your games were attack v defence
Anzhi vs some mugs at home
Anderlecht vs some mugs at home
Argentina vs mugs
Germany vs Holland, slight sympathy here but once you saw how Holland lined up, you knew 0-0 was their intention and should have acted accordingly.

All these bets were one sided, good team vs the proverbial bus.

Now consider my o0.5 bets for CL this week which my many haters will label as guesses.
Val- Bayern, MANC- RM, Spartak- Barca (Laid draw-draw in barca game, but 0-0 still busts obviously)

Do all six teams want to win- yes
Do all six teams need to win- yes
Do all six teams possess a strong attack and frail defences- three times a lady

I'll be picking up my money, and march on to the weekend bets

lol betting on friendlies

indeed, Dortmund was another bankbreaker.

With these threads you always get the same naive statements about 'you just have to pick games/leagues with attacking teams and weak defences'

There is no reason to suppose you would do better laying 0-0 in Barcelona matches than Stoke matches .Yes Stoke will have more 0-0s but when they do get one you won't need to pay out 30 times your stake.

if you use your entire bank to lay it is simply a matter of time before you get wiped out. It is a mathematical certainty that it will happen at some point. No gambler/bookie wins every bet. But you haven't done that and you are still up 2.5k. You went on a good streak and now have hit a bad one, that's all. Look at the 6 months as a whole.

Betting on friendlies and even cup matches, where winning is not necessarily the objective for either manager and where there is no penalty (no points dropped) for not winning is a big no-no for me. Some cup games are ok but friendlies never, they can be more about trying new players, formations, exercise than winning. Some teams don't take certain cups seriously either and play weakened teams/rest players. I need to know the teams/players for these or I won't touch. A draw is never too bad a result in knockout cup games. Not losing is more important than winning.

GAMBLER

Irons

I mean back over 1.5 works for me

not sure about your comments re Valencia v Bayern mrfishfingers. A draw for Bayern would see them through if BATE slip up and without Ribery (possibly) they may take the draw imo

do Barcelona need to win at Spartak? Not sure about that one either! A draw would pretty much guarantee them being top of the group going into the last match at home to Benfica (barring a victory by a couple of goals for Celtic, which would guarantee Barcelona qualify as a minimum) so although they could be expected to win not sure they need to win.

also irons there is a tendency to do any old match when you lay 0-0,as you only need one goal,but for over 1.5 I find it makes me work that bit harder as you are looking for two,also avoid backing over 1.5 at crazy odds eg barcelona etc

a point for Real Madrid at City guarantees them second spot going into the last match, a home match against Ajax and could guarantee them qualification should Ajax fail to get anything against Dortmund

My advice to you and gilligan  dont bet on high profile teams .. bet on ordinary teams and leagues .. all the best dude

the mover
if you suggest that Bayern will play for a 0-0 tonight you are even thicker than I thought you were.

and I already thought you so very, very thick

The best response in this thread is Lurkas.

The reason for failure is nothing to do with "being unlucky", it all boils down to poor bankroll management.

I bet even the worst of gamblers on this forum can identify value prices, but 99.9% of them will not make a long-term profit because they don't treat their gambling as a business. There is nothing wrong with that, as for most people, it is just a bit of fun.

However, if you really expected to profit from this method long-term with your current bankroll set-up, then you should really look up some articles on variance and probabiility.

Here is a link which might help:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/60417551/Anticipated-Losing-Runs


I play poker for a living, and if I didn't abide by strict bankroll management rules, I wouldn't be able to earn a living.

Without money mismanagement, bookies would be pooping themselves..............but luckily enough for them, most people don't have the discipline and focus it takes and start "chasing losses" and "lumping on team A because they are certs".

If you want to continue with your method, and believe you have an edge in pricing up the 0-0 market, then to win £50 each game, you need a bankroll of approximately £30k, depending on the level of risk you are comfortable with.

Best of luck and hope you get back to winning ways

be careful of laying 0-0's as the cold weather sets in, I don't imagine players push themselves quite as hard when the weather turns during the winter months. I mean who works as hard when they work in shty@ weather. I know I don't.

^^^^

i thought you were the ice king.

ouchieee

I lost my bank with my first ever 0-0 lay, of Holland v whoever it was in the 2010 WC final. I have never recovered.

was it Brazil?   still can't believe was 0-0.  In shock still.

Nov 20, 2012 -- 4:54PM, themover wrote:

a point for Real Madrid at City guarantees them second spot going into the last match, a home match against Ajax and could guarantee them qualification should Ajax fail to get anything against Dortmund

I don't think Madrid will play for a draw. Mourinho is clever enough to know City are far better than what they've shown so far, and if they up their game could easily destroy Madrid. He also knows the thing to do here is to get at City.

It was spain desperate spain

easily destroy madrid. take that back at once

yes PfP Spain of course. how could I forget.  Wish I could forget.

TOBERMONEY: With these threads you always get the same naive statements about 'you just have to pick games/leagues with attacking teams and weak defences'

There is no reason to suppose you would do better laying 0-0 in Barcelona matches than Stoke matches .Yes Stoke will have more 0-0s but when they do get one you won't need to pay out 30 times your stake.
----------------------

Really? Barca have now gone 31 consecutive games in which they have scored at least one goal.

I sympathise with Irons75 having been there myself. I, too, was confident that laying 0-0 was a good strategy and kept a record of 'paper bets', in which I staked no actual money for 3 months but imagined I'd layed for £100 each time. I went about 30-plus games without a 'loser' before deciding to take the plunge.

You know what's coming . . . I layed 0-0 in West Ham v Blackpool for £20 @ odds of 20.00 and lost £400 first up!

However, I have not been put off by the potential long-term benefits of this strategy. I have built a sufficiently bigger bank to now revert to this method, by being very selective and mainly sticking to games that are shown live on TV and in which I have an interest and some knowledge of form, etc.

Yes, you will inevitably be 'hit' at some point, but then what other method can produce consistently winning results for relatively good reward? It's risk and reward. All gambling methods lose at some point, but can you win more than you lose and stay profitably ahead of the game?

The problem is,you need a big enough starting bank and be able to withstand a few inevitable setbacks along the way. But, with a common sense approach, knowledge of the teams you are betting on and the patience to wait for the most suitable games to come along (Barca, Real Madrid, Man Utd at home, etc, etc, it is by no means implausible to achieve a run of 30-50 consecutive winning bets by laying 0-0. Not necessarily at kick-off, but 10-20 minutes into the game as prices shorten.

And in the long-term that CAN be decently profitable.

I fully anticipate a barrage of "mug" and "fastest way to the poorhouse" type replies, but I'm with you Irons75.

Nov 20, 2012 -- 6:21PM, mrfishfingers wrote:

the mover if you suggest that Bayern will play for a 0-0 tonight you are even thicker than I thought you were.and I already thought you so very, very thick

Credit for being honest!

Simple fact is systems dont really work...you have to mix things up once in a while. Instinct and more instinct...rationalistic Condorcet like philosophies are meaningless!

Experience and a little luck does it for me!

just in case you didn't see the match mrfishfingers Bayern were very happy with the 0-0 even though they were playing 10 men for most of the match.

Nov 20, 2012 -- 6:21PM, mrfishfingers wrote:

the mover if you suggest that Bayern will play for a 0-0 tonight you are even thicker than I thought you were.and I already thought you so very, very thick


then

3 shots on target 0-0 lump job, im flipping my bet

well you will need a run of 30 without a 0-0 laying Barcelona games as 30 is typically the 0-0 price

"You know what's coming . . . I layed 0-0 in West Ham v Blackpool for £20 @ odds of 20.00 and lost £400 first up!"

Something similar happened to me, always looks good on paper but the mentality of the gambler always plays a part. The people who bet on 0-0 always do better not because they have a more accurate idea of when a 0-0 is coming, its just that when they lose a bet they carry on - i imagine you did what i and a thousand other "system betters" did after an early catastrophe and gave up on it...

someone with a better graps of probabilty theories might be able to help here but the chances of winning 30 lay bets at 30-1 is extraordinarily high, much higher than youd think. the chances are that one "loss" in the 30 games will come at some point in the run but the chances of it coming in the last game or even the last 5 are very slim.

to make matters worse 0-0s seem to cluster, that is - you dont get any for ages then 2 or 3 come at once. Even with an edge you will be seriously knackered unless you have a very conservative staking plan... and 9 out of 10 people who try these bets dont as the wins are so small and the losses so "infrequent".

great thread though, good to see how other people see this market.

the scottish lower leagues are the only ones id be willing to lay 0-0 with a degree of confidence

2008/09 season

Arsenal

2009

Jan 25     0-0 Cardiff   away FA Cup
Jan 31     0-0 West Ham  home
Feb  8     0-0 Spurs     away
Feb 21     0-0 Sundeland home
Feb 28     0-0 Fulham    home

That was five 0-0 draws in the space of a month,apart from the Cardiff game,the rest should have had a bucket load of goals,I can still see the most amazing misses,how because I was there,I felt the pain.

It just shows that anything can happen,what would the odds be on the above occurring,enough to buy a yacht,and the trappings.

Saudi Arabia v Argentina   - I did avoid as Argentina have quite a few 0-0s even against rubbish teams!
Holland v Germany  - I did avoid because of it being 2 very good teams and both might cancel each other out which they did!
Anzi v Rostov - No, just no!
Anderlecht v Kortrijk  (cashed on 85 mins)  1-0 91min goal - Typical, always keep your bet in to the end once you've committed!
Tomsk v Ufa - Russian league, I say no more!

Iv tried this system for a lot longer than I should have and its not a long term system, you will lose eventually! It seems easy when you win 10/15/20 and then bang, 2 or 3 0-0s and your back to square one! Its completely pointless!

It will never work unless your incredibly lucky, feel free to keep trying if you don't believe me!

It's all about prices. 0-0's will arrive in any league but not as they should,
like one every 15th match, but erratically, perhaps say, 40 without, then 3 from
5, overall 3 from 45, back to square 1. Layers get intoxicated by what seems like
'easy money' but eventually they arrive, and suddenly we are looking for reasons
and the only reason is the law of averages kicking in. 0-0 is (usually) the the
4th most likely result in your average match yet is (usually) the score most traded
on, therefore the most likely to be efficient. The best time to be betting on the
correct score is (IMO) during the last 30 mins play, not all the time, but a lot of
the time. GL.

Peterborough have well over 100 games since a 0-0,yet only the other week a stoppage time goal prevented it from happening,yet the odds on 0-0 in peterborough games are wrong.

It actually might be worth backing 0-0 in their games from now on.

ManU have gone nearly 80 matches (in all competitions) without
a 0-0.

Peterborough's run is 158 games now. Their last 0-0 was in December 2009 away at Ipswich...............who they play away this weekend.

THESE TEAMS THAT HAVE VERY LONG RUNS OF NOT BEING  0-0 ARE JUST WAITING FOR YOU TO PUT YOUR MONEY ON THEM SO THEY CAN BE 0-0

yup id be terrified going to see a match this saturday knowing that a random bet from a random punter on betfair can influence the result

I think that this strategy CAN work. I think you should limit yourself to 2 bets a day on this. If I was using this system I'd have a rule that once I lost on a 0-0 I wouldn't allow myself to bet again that day or the following day. You don't make any rash bets then

stopping yourself chasing is very difficult for most, it just goes against human nature....imagine you are settling down for race one of the cheltenham festival meeting and are anticipating a betting feast, then you lose heavily in race one, its so so hard to just walk away....having said that, of course you are 100% right in what you say

I was very bad at chasing. But you must stake sensibly and consistently, and fight these stupid chasing urges when you get a loser. Go outside for a walk or read the newspaper

Dortmund at home a few weeks ago killed me off and as left me in trouble, they then went and score 2 in madrid and another 3 last sat.

0 0 is a dangerous bet , prob better backing it and then if its 0 0 at ht then lay it off, do this in enough games and you should show a nice profit. 1 in 3 games roughly is 0 0 at half time and the correct score 0 0 usually drops considerably.

discipline is the key, unfortunatly greed and chasing brings a lot of us to our knees

bit like backing red on roulette, and it comes in black 12 times in a row,

Some good responses here.

If 0-0 and the lay price that normally accompanies it when the 'big' teams are playing is offputting, I've found a bit of success laying 1-0 or 0-1 IF the first goal goes in within 15 mins of KO.

When that happens, you often find that the team which perhaps came with a more cautious, defensive mindset has to suddenly throw those plabns out of the window and come out of their shell . . . which leads to more space, the play beign stretched and more end to end action.

Few teams are content to sit on a one-goal lead, so in this scenario you have BOTH teams trying to score the second goal of the game. But the key here is that the first goal must be scored early.

Incredible stats about Man Utd and The Posh.

Footy is very unpredictable that is why I rarely bet on it, but one angle people rarely take into account I feel is the weather conditions.

November freezing cold, can lead to turgid matches, sunshine easier conditions more goals....maybe !!

I also have a rule that I won't lay any correct score after the 70th minute.If you haven't done the business before then, leave well alone.

I foolishly came unstuck with Barca in Moscow yesterday. Successfully laid 0-1 and 0-2 early in the first half for £40 profit but got greedy and went back in and laid 0-3, which was the score at half-time.

What I hadn't factored into my muddled thinking was that Spartak were incapable of scoring even a comnsolation goal and lacked the appetite to do so, while Barca were in cruise control and content to retain possession, whilst wasting 2 or 3 half chances. They really took their foot off the gas.

I should have learned from this same mistake last season, when Barca held a comfortable 2-0 lead away in the league somewhere and were just content to play keep-ball for the last half-hour.

Plechy, in the second half of English football, I would
rather be a backer than a layer. There are big variances
at times as people are trying to get out of situations bet
at very wrong prices often. Examples this evening included
the matches at Zenit and Man City,sorry I can't reveal what
they were.

plechy, like the 1-0 / 0-1 idea after an early goal... might try that sometime.

talking of dortmund, this pretty much illustrates how unpredictable these things can be.. (last 2 games)

Head-to-head matches: DORTMUND - VFB STUTTGART
03.11.12    BUN    Dortmund    VfB Stuttgart    0 : 0
30.03.12    BUN    Dortmund    VfB Stuttgart    4 : 4

also last season

chelsea 3-5 arsenal

arsenal 0-0 chelsea

Forget the Champions League, the Prem and the Championship.

There's ALWAYS shedloads of value straight betting in our own "lower" leagues (1 & 2)
if you look hard enough. Me and me mate cleared up on Tuesday night. Lovely stuff!

on 0-0s you mean?

raspberry: There's ALWAYS shedloads of value straight betting in our own "lower" leagues (1 & 2)
if you look hard enough. Me and me mate cleared up on Tuesday night. Lovely stuff!
---------------------------------

You must be a genius rb.

On Tuesday, 7 out of 12 League One games were away wins, and the other five were draws. NO HOME WINS!

popop - no, not 0-0's.

Plechy - not a genius - far from it. But there were some stand out bets (Leagues 1&2) that night.

On Tuesday, 7 out of 12 League One games were away wins, and the other five were draws. NO HOME WINS

what about those people who back homes?