Football
Newcastle EVENS (at Home!) to beat WEST HAM!!
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Tobermory you mug! More like jackanory!
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lol Meadway. I don't see how he was a mug. Newcastle had an off day today. Evens wasn't bad at all imo.
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kenilworth 11 Nov 12 17:04 Joined: 04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 10,156 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog He's too ugly. I'm sure you're an oil painting. |
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Newcastle a pub team
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Quite right, but I'm not being
considered for the England job. |
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In a match where every outcome (1X2) is as likely as any other, then 2/1 is the price for any outcome. Evens means that the side you are backing is twice as likely to win as in the match where each outcome is equally likely.
Was a home win really as likely as both draw and away win put together there? Clearly not. Any people saying 1.65 is value...you could play that game 5 times and you'd still be making a loss if Newcastle won 3 of them. |
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[CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11
Add contact | Send message When: 11 Nov 12 20:43 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,476 | Blogger: CJ70's blog Nov 11, 2012 -- 12:53PM, Rowan86 wrote: I am if I can find better prices. I haven't seen these priority prices. I'll believe it when I see them.You are mathematically wrong in your approach. I can prove that whilst you waffle on about "how exchanges work". You don't understand what an exchange does and so you just punt on who you think will win. The difference between us is that if we both had a strong belief that Newcastle would be winning after 30 mins. I'd play it and you'd complain that Betfair didn't have a market up.[/quote] No, the difference is that you wouldn't care about the value of the bets you made pre kick-off and at 30 mins, because you'd fixated on the idea that you're just making a bet on the first 30 mins of the game. You'd be like right, I'll make my pre kick-off back of Newcastle. Who cares if it's a bad value bet? I'm going to lay-off after 30 mins if they're ahead. If the price pre-kick off is poor value, then it's mathematically impossible for there to be more value in the trade over the 30 mins than there would be from simply waiting for newcastle to score and then laying them. I'm more than happy to write a proof of that. |
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Sorry. Need to amend the last paragraph. It should have read:
If the price pre-kick off is poor value, then it's mathematically impossible for there to be more value in the trade over the 30 mins than there would be from simply waiting to see if Newcastle are ahead after 30 mins and laying them. |
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When I say "value in the trade", I mean value in attempting the trade if you get what I mean.
If this scenario repeated itself every weekend for a large number of weeks, the trader probably does worse than someone that just lays Newcastle if they're ahead after 30 mins, assuming the pre kick-off price is always poor, irrespective of how likely it is that Newcastle are going to be ahead after 30 mins. |
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Evens doesn't seem to be decent price when this ref is in town
Spot of after timing but his style isn't suited to our game |
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I'm pleased you've found some kind of explanation for that disaster. I feel sick about it.
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I stake small on each event. It doesn't make sense to bet a lot each time. I feel a lot more sick as a Newcastle fan than I do about the loss of money.
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Wasn't pleasant to watch, that's for sure
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It was painful to watch.
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OP's posts must be viewed with scepticism going forward after this performance.
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Worse than that, saying as alladyce is ex manager, and he keeps winning up here !
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Yep was similar to that. Couldn't believe you lost to Wigan. Suppose it shows it can happen to good teams though!
Yeah, extra kick in the teeth losing to ex players and an ex manager. Did you go to Brugge Donny? I went to Brugge without a ticket and Liverpool away on Sun. |
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dont do away games these days, was tempted by bordeaux because i love it there but cant get away, and mrs is stuck at work too.
competition is a bit of a joke with teams made up of mainly reserve players, still a few days in brugges can be fun without any football, and it was great of them to see sense when newcastle mp got involved and open up a few more terraces to our fans and stick up a big screen in town. |
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maybe the warm reception the brugges fans got in newcastle helped shame club brugges to do something too !!!
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any sign of tobermory,what a mug,we were above them before the game & further ahead after the game,he still probably backs liverpool away at odds on every game,thinking dalglish & rush are still playing,haha.
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Yeah, I was really pleased about the big screen. Was impressed by that. Did we give them a warm welcome? I thought there were fights?
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So he got a tip wrong so what, I've seen worse tips, and newcastle at home to wet sham was value at that price.
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maybes was rowan, the ones i saw were happy with their day in newcastle, maybe it kicked off later, dont know tbh
i suppose you'll always get some nutters attracted into it, still plenty of bother if you know where to look |
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lol Book, sure i already posted after the match
West Ham i'll be amazed if they finish above Newcastle , hardly played anyone decent yet |
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Can you explain what you were doing on that Russian game? I'll tell you if it was madness.
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Just say literally what your plan was and what you thought of the pre-match price. I'm assuming you made a pre-match bet.
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anyone decent ? man city & had a perfectly good goal disallowed.
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still to play Chelsea,United,Spurs,Everton & Liverpool at all + Away to City and Arsenal
Very soft fixtures compared to the other relegation candidates so far |
