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Is 1.01 profitable?

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By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 22:18

By:

hejik When: 13 Jul 12 22:31

Jul 13, 2012 -- 7:23PM, erse2 wrote:

you need a streak averaging over 105 times when you include commmiisshun. you're already losing the %'s in the fractions of a penny.

silly statement this
nothing works over 105 goes
least if all probability

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 22:59

By:

henok When: 13 Jul 12 23:22

Adrewmat, working with odds as low as 1.01, u need 1000s of sample bets to prove u have an edge. i am not sure if u have any strategy to select games. without a strategy u would struggle to justify ur edge analytically, if ever u finished your experiment with a positive.
I think this will take you a significant amount of time placing a bet and publishing it here. eventhough i respect ur dedication to try, i would advise u to consider whether the time u may have to spend is worth it.

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 13 Jul 12 23:38

Jul 13, 2012 -- 10:31PM, hejik wrote:

Jul 13, 2012 -- 7:23PM, erse2 wrote:you need a streak averaging over 105 times when you include commmiisshun. you're already losing the %'s in the fractions of a penny.silly statement thisnothing works over 105 goesleast if all probability

What? His statement was 100% factually correct.

As for the system, are you redding out when a bet turns against you to avoid losing a large percentage of your bank or are you letting all bets run?

I almost think you'd be better trying to scalp quickly falling markets rather than go for plain 1.01 shots.

By:

hejik When: 13 Jul 12 23:40

darlo he isn't going to hit one loser in 100 bets
as previously stated by somebody else, could hit 3 losers in 10 or go 2500 picks before hitting a loser

probability doesn't work this way

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 13 Jul 12 23:49

What on earth are you on about? The statement that he needs to average winning runs of 105 to make profits is factually correct. It doesn't matter if it's a run of 10 and then a run of 200, he needs to average 105 to break even.

By:

hejik When: 13 Jul 12 23:51

if he averages runs of 105 then he isn't going to make any money at all

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 13 Jul 12 23:57

That's why I said break even.

By:

hejik When: 14 Jul 12 00:05

no you said

"The statement that he needs to average winning runs of 105 to make profits is factually correct"

I'm saying it isn't

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 14 Jul 12 00:09

"he needs to average 105 to break even."

Anyway, I'm not spoiling this thread any further.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 05:48

henok, it actually doesn't take too much time, as I don't normally follow those matches, just post the bet and go back to my other activities, return towards the end of the match and post the result, etc.

By:

ispiskbuki When: 14 Jul 12 07:23

i m not sure about 1.01m but this is profitable (friday 13th bets :DDD ) :
2012-07-13
19:52    2012-07-13
19:19 Fixtures 13 July Lyon v Ath Bilbao / Match Odds / Ath Bilbao
Back       5.36 27.19 Won       118.45 334.27

2012-07-13
19:52    2012-07-13
18:59 Fixtures 13 July Lyon v Ath Bilbao / Match Odds / Ath Bilbao
Back       4.60 40.00 Won       144.00 215.82

2012-07-13
18:50    2012-07-13
17:17 Fixtures 13 July Lillestrom v Tromso / Match Odds / Lillestrom
Back       8.80 8.00 Won       62.40 242.02
2012-07-13
18:50    2012-07-13
17:14 Fixtures 13 July Lillestrom v Tromso / Match Odds / Lillestrom
Back       8.00 20.00 Won       140.00 179.62

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 10:21

By:

CLYDEBANK29 When: 14 Jul 12 10:50

1.01 is profitable as a lay if you can be first in the queue which is very important and a strategy used by one or two people that specialise in being first in the queue. You'll find in several football and tennis markets, that go in running with high liquidity, that almost upon the market being added, large strategic lays using automated software will appear at 1.01 1.02 1.03 etc to be used as "keep bets" when the game goes in running.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 10:58

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 11:20

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 11:53

Bets 1-30: Bank 5,00$ --> 6,72$.
Bet 31. Lyon - Ath Bilbao 1-0, U3.5, 6,72$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 6,79$.
Bet 32. Dundalk - Shamrock Rovers 1-0, U5.5, 6,79$ at 1.01. Won (1-1). Bank - 6,86$.
Bet 33. Wexford Youths - Longford 1-1, U4.5, 6,86$ at 1.01. Won (1-1). Bank - 6,93$.
Bet 34. Vikingur Olafsvik - KA Akureyri 0-1, U5.5, 6,93$ at 1.01. Won (0-1). Bank - 7,00$.
Bet 35. Gwangju FC - Seongnam Ilhwa 1-1, U5.5, 7,00$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 7,07$.
Bet 36. Ferencvaros - Soroksar SC 4-1, U8.5, 7,07$ at 1.01. Won (5-1). Bank - 7,14$.
Bet 37. GKS Katowice - Piast Gliwice 0-0, U3.5, 7,14$ at 1.01. Won (0-0). Bank - 7,21$.
Bet 38. Tosu - FC Tokyo 0-0, U4.5, 7,21$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 12:53

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 15:16

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 15:44

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 15:50

By:

ruivmarta When: 14 Jul 12 15:54

Going well! ;)

By:

ruivmarta When: 14 Jul 12 15:55

Imagine you had started with a 5.000 € bank... :o

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 15:55

Bets 1-40: Bank 5,00$ --> 7,42$.
Bet 41. Morecambe - Everton 0-4, U6.5, 7,42$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 15:56

ruivmarta, thanks, I don't have so much money

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 16:08

Bets 1-40: Bank 5,00$ --> 7,42$.
Bet 41. Morecambe - Everton 0-4, U6.5, 7,42$ at 1.01. Won (1-4). Bank - 7,49$.
Bet 42. Osnabruck - Bochum 3-1, U6.5, 7,49$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 16:21

Bets 1-40: Bank 5,00$ --> 7,42$.
Bet 41. Morecambe - Everton 0-4, U6.5, 7,42$ at 1.01. Won (1-4). Bank - 7,49$.
Bet 42. Osnabruck - Bochum 3-1, U6.5, 7,49$ at 1.01. Won (3-1). Bank - 7,56$.
Bet 43. Hereford - Yeovil 0-1, U4.5, 7,56$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 16:50

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 17:06

By:

JOCI Club When: 14 Jul 12 17:22

2 goals now but should be fine.

By:

JOCI Club When: 14 Jul 12 17:27

Now a 3rd on 68 mins - got to hope they shut up shop now!

By:

JOCI Club When: 14 Jul 12 17:38

4th goal

just over 10 mins to hang on!

By:

mikeywinner When: 14 Jul 12 17:38

squeaky bum time

By:

JOCI Club When: 14 Jul 12 17:49

Safe! No injury time.

By:

ruivmarta When: 14 Jul 12 17:50

Almost... this is really dangerous. Who would imagine a game 0-0 at HT would have 4 goals on 2nd half? Incredible!...

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 14 Jul 12 17:55

Jul 14, 2012 -- 5:50PM, ruivmarta wrote:

Almost... this is really dangerous. Who would imagine a game 0-0 at HT would have 4 goals on 2nd half? Incredible!...

Anything is possible in friendlies. Personally I don't think these 1.01s on friendlies have value. Too many unknowns.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 18:05

Bets 1-40: Bank 5,00$ --> 7,42$.
Bet 41. Morecambe - Everton 0-4, U6.5, 7,42$ at 1.01. Won (1-4). Bank - 7,49$.
Bet 42. Osnabruck - Bochum 3-1, U6.5, 7,49$ at 1.01. Won (3-1). Bank - 7,56$.
Bet 43. Hereford - Yeovil 0-1, U4.5, 7,56$ at 1.01. Won (1-1). Bank - 7,63$.
Bet 44. Southend - West Ham 0-3, U4.5, 7,63$ at 1.01. Won (0-3). Bank - 7,71$.
Bet 45. CSKA Moscow - Paris St-G 0-0, U4.5, 7,71$ at 1.01. Won (2-2). Bank - 7,79$.
Bet 46. VPS - TPS 1-3, U6.5, 7,79$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 18:25

By:

AndrewMat When: 14 Jul 12 18:47