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Is 1.01 profitable?

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By:

AndrewMat When: 12 Jul 12 20:29

Bets 1-10: Bank 5$ --> 5,50$.
Bet 11. Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i - Jeju Utd 1-1, U6.5, 5,50$ at 1.01. Won (2-2). Bank - 5,56$.
Bet 12. Gombak - Balestier Khalsa 0-0, U4.5, 5,56$ at 1.01. Won (1-0). Bank - 5,62$.
Bet 13. FC Ordabasy - Jagodina 0-0, U7.5, 5,62$ at 1.01. Won (0-0). Bank - 5,68$.
Bet 14. Metalurg Skopje - Birkirkara 0-0, U4.5, 5,68$ at 1.01. Won (0-0). Bank - 5,74$.
Bet 15. Gomel - Vikingur Gota 0-0, U5.5, 5,74$ at 1.01. Won (4-0). Bank - 5,80$.
Bet 16. Zimbru Chisinau - Bangor City 2-1, U5.5, 5,80$ at 1.01. Won (2-1). Bank - 5,85$.
Bet 17. Kalmar FF - Cliftonville 3-0, U6.5, 5,85$ at 1.01. Won (4-0). Bank - 5,91$.
Bet 18. FK Senica - MTK Budapest 0-1, U4.5, 5,91$ at 1.01. Won (2-1). Bank - 5,97$.
Bet 19. NK Celje - Dacia Chisinau 0-1, U3.5, 5,97$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 12 Jul 12 20:56

By:

AndrewMat When: 12 Jul 12 21:21

By:

AndrewMat When: 12 Jul 12 21:27

Bets 1-20: Bank 5,00$ --> 6.09$.
Bet 21. Le Havre - Lille 0-2, U5.5, 6,09$ at 1.01.

By:

donut2 When: 12 Jul 12 21:28

jesus u have to much time on your hands

By:

AndrewMat When: 12 Jul 12 21:32

donut, do you envy?

By:

AndrewMat When: 12 Jul 12 21:59

Bets 1-20: Bank 5,00$ --> 6.09$.
Bet 21. Le Havre - Lille 0-2, U5.5, 6,09$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 6,15$.
Bet 22. IBV - St.Patricks 0-0, U2.5, 6,15$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 12 Jul 12 22:21

Bets 1-20: Bank 5,00$ --> 6.09$.
Bet 21. Le Havre - Lille 0-2, U5.5, 6,09$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 6,15$.
Bet 22. IBV - St.Patricks 0-0, U2.5, 6,15$ at 1.01. Won (1-0). Bank - 6,21$.

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 10:29

By:

fairweather When: 13 Jul 12 10:41

Andrew, stop wasting your time and consider the facts...

If you bet 1.01 on a high liquidity market, you'll be taking what is generally a true 1.01 chance, ie, 1 in 100 times it will get beat, very long term you will end up level, less commission = well down on the deal.

If you take a 1.01 bet on a low liquidity market, you'll be almost certainly taking under the odds and will lose long term before commission.

Either way, you lose. Why do you think you will win betting blind at 1.01 rather than any other price? Do you think you'd win long term betting blind at evens? Its the same principle, just with 1.01 you get much longer winning runs.

Winning money is hard damn work, there arent any easy ways on here. Good luck.

By:

nokia26 When: 13 Jul 12 10:51

I agree with you fairweather its happened with me already it seeems like your making profit but there is always a game that goes wrong when playing blind. good luck with 1.01 im not playing that type of game any more unless im whatching the game live.

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 10:55

fairweather, Thank you for advice, but I'm not wasting my time and I don't look for profit, just doing it for fun and trying to make the winning streak as long as possible, no more than that.

By:

STEVO1878 When: 13 Jul 12 10:59

I admire your steadfast experiment Andrew, but fairweather is right, it's a lot of hard work for little reward. I'd much rather try and double my bank on 1 even money shot and green out or cash out depending on how things go. Good luck anyway mate.

By:

Biscuit1979 When: 13 Jul 12 11:01

He started with a fiver and he's doing it for a laugh, can't believe he's actually getting criticism over this, i hope he gets to at least 100 bets.

By:

STEVO1878 When: 13 Jul 12 11:04

Yeah biscuit, I hope he does make it too, think I would have lost interest myself by now though!

By:

Biscuit1979 When: 13 Jul 12 11:06

he's probably wishing he'd started with 500 instead of 5

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 11:54

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 11:56

Stev01878, Biscuit, thank you, guys, and no, I am non wishing I'd started with 500$, too much money for entertaiment is not good

By:

Redrebel5 When: 13 Jul 12 12:00

I disagree with the opinion that on a 100/1 shot you'll end up losing once in every 100 attempts. It's purely random. If you had a 100 white marbles & one black marble, put them in a bag, & took out one. The odds of picking out the black marble will always be 100/1 regardless of how many times you do it. You could pick it out 3 times in 50 goes. Conversely, you could get up to 1,000 attempts before you pick it out - Market liquidity is very important however, because as has already been pointed out, you're not getting true odds if there's not much money on a particular market. Your 100/1 bet might only really be worth 30 or 40/1. I'd be tempted to wait until the footie season starts. But good luck anyway.

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 12:03

Redrebel, right you are, though with football at betfair you still have a chance to red out, if something goes wrong and still finish with profit, which you can't do when taking out black marble

By:

Redrebel5 When: 13 Jul 12 12:20

That's true mate. I was using the marble analogy for those who feel that it's inevitable that you'll lose at least once in every 100 bets. There's an infinite number of times you could carry on before you pick out a losing bet. Let's hope you've withdrawn some of your winnings before you do

By:

duncan idaho When: 13 Jul 12 12:22

have tried this....had 83 winners and only 1 loser

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 13:02

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 14:39

By:

jim808 When: 13 Jul 12 14:43

so sick of Betfair pissing me about, anyone know any other decent exchange betting sites?

By:

Steinhaus When: 13 Jul 12 14:43

****

By:

Steinhaus When: 13 Jul 12 14:44

****

By:

tradebetter When: 13 Jul 12 14:49

i've been using Smarkets a bit recently - it's not too bad. only 2% commission, i've heard they have tech faults occasionally but it's been alrite for me so far. **** is the other big one

By:

ShirleyKnot When: 13 Jul 12 16:00

I use ***** too.

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 16:10

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 17:09

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 18:08

Bets 1-20: Bank 5,00$ --> 6.09$.
Bet 21. Le Havre - Lille 0-2, U5.5, 6,09$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 6,15$.
Bet 22. IBV - St.Patricks 0-0, U2.5, 6,15$ at 1.01. Won (1-0). Bank - 6,21$.
Bet 23. MFK Karvina - Podbeskidzie B-B 0-1, U6.5, 6,21$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 6,27$.
Bet 24. Tanjong Pagar Utd - Harimau Muda A 0-0, U6.5, 6,27$ at 1.01. Won (0-2). Bank - 6,33$.
Bet 25. Metalist (Res) - Illychivets (Res) 0-0, U5.5, 6,33$ at 1.01. Won (0-0). Bank - 6,39$.
Bet 26. Zorya (Res) - Metalurg Z (Res) 0-0, U4.5, 6,39$ at 1.01. Won (0-1). Bank - 6,45$.
Bet 27. Dinamo Kiev (Res) - Metalurg D (Res) 0-0, U4.5, 6,45$ at 1.01. Won (2-0). Bank - 6,51$.
Bet 28. Bate Borisov - Torpedo BelAZ 0-0, U4.5, 6,51$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 19:09

By:

erse2 When: 13 Jul 12 19:23

you need a streak averaging over 105 times when you include commmiisshun. you're already losing the %'s in the fractions of a penny.

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 19:53

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 20:22

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 20:30

Bets 1-30: Bank 5,00$ --> 6,72$.
Bet 31. Lyon - Ath Bilbao 1-0, U3.5, 6,72$ at 1.01.

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 21:01

Bets 1-30: Bank 5,00$ --> 6,72$.
Bet 31. Lyon - Ath Bilbao 1-0, U3.5, 6,72$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 6,79$.
Bet 32. Dundalk - Shamrock Rovers 1-0, U5.5, 6,79$ at 1.01.

By:

MrBaboon When: 13 Jul 12 21:15

The costs in electricity are probably greater than the profits you are making ?

By:

AndrewMat When: 13 Jul 12 21:46

Bets 1-30: Bank 5,00$ --> 6,72$.
Bet 31. Lyon - Ath Bilbao 1-0, U3.5, 6,72$ at 1.01. Won (1-2). Bank - 6,79$.
Bet 32. Dundalk - Shamrock Rovers 1-0, U5.5, 6,79$ at 1.01. Won (1-1). Bank - 6,86$.
Bet 33. Wexford Youths - Longford 1-1, U4.5, 6,86$ at 1.01.