1 to 2 for Man City to win league does not make sense.

are spurs not in top 9

they wern't at the time,

lies damn lies and all that

They weren't top 9 because their first game was postponed.  What an utterly rubbish stat.  And Norwich had probably just slipped from 9th to 10th as well.

If Newcastle follow their 4-0 loss to Wigan with a thrashing against a buoyant Chelsea side then they will go into the match low on confidence but desperately needing a win to keep their top 4 hopes alive.  That is a very dangerous combination against the current City side.  Sides that attack against City usually get their throats ripped out and combine that with dented confidence and you have a recipe for an easy City win.   Best thing for City then is that QPR come needing a win to stay up as they too will not be able to set up with 9 defensive players and will leave space for City to do maximum damage.   1 to 2 looks value to me.

Dented confidence. LOLLERS.

They ripped Wigan apart in the 2nd half could have scored 4 themselves.

Newcastle and Sunderland are difficult propositions at home. Those 2 games are not gimmees.

Newcastle have won 8 & drawn 2 of there last 10 home games.
Man City have only won 4 (Wigan,Villa,Norwich & Wolves)of their last 12 aways.

Man City must be considered a value lay against Newcastle and the league outright at current prices.

Unlucky 4-0 losers.  Heard it all now...

Newcastle werent unlucky losers. HTH.

Seems we were discussing dented confidence. HTAH.

Thanks Ell (426PM). The point I am making is that 1.5 is very poor value and completely the wrong price unless the market is expecting MU to slip up against Sunderland. If NU hadn't played Wolves last Saturday would they be 5/1? No. Wigan are going through a period that can be described as freak. The chances of any provincial club beating each of Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle again over a 4 or 5 week period is most unlikely. Newcastle can't suddenly become a 5/1 chance to win at home (having won 8 of their last 10 home games) on the back of one freak away result. I doubt they would be as much as 5/1 to beat either of Bayern Munich or Chelsea at home and these teams are both in the Champions League Final.

BTW Ozzie (238PM). Spurs were in bottom quartile prior to kick-off.

To be fair Newcastle have hardly played any of the top sides at home recently (liverpool is hardly a top side in current form) or away to be honest, so it is quite difficult to judge their particular form

28/04     Wigan     4     (4)     -     (0)     0     Newcastle     22187
Moses 13
Moses 15
Maloney 36
Di Santo 45                                   
21/04     Newcastle     3     (2)     -     (0)     0     Stoke     52162
Cabaye 14
Cisse 18
Cabaye 57                                   
09/04     Newcastle     2     (0)     -     (0)     0     Bolton     52264
Ben Arfa 73
Cisse 83                                   
06/04     Swansea     0     (0)     -     (1)     2     Newcastle     19874
                                    Cisse 5
Cisse 69
01/04     Newcastle     2     (1)     -     (0)     0     Liverpool     52363
Cisse 19
Cisse 59                                   
25/03     West Brom     1     (0)     -     (3)     3     Newcastle     25049
Long 52                                   Cisse 6
Ben Arfa 12
Cisse 34
18/03     Newcastle     1     (1)     -     (0)     0     Norwich     47833
Cisse 11                                   
12/03     Arsenal     2     (1)     -     (1)     1     Newcastle     60095
van Persie 15
Vermaelen 90                                   
04/03     Newcastle     1     (0)     -     (1)     1     Sunderland     52388
Shola Ameobi 90                                   Bendtner pen 24
25/02     Newcastle     2     (2)     -     (0)     2     Wolves     52287
Cisse 6
Gutierrez 18                                   Jarvis 50
Doyle 66
11/02     Tottenham     5     (4)     -     (0)     0     Newcastle     36176
Assou-Ekotto 4
Saha 6
Saha 20
Kranjcar 34
Adebayor 64                                   
05/02     Newcastle     2     (1)     -     (1)     1     Aston Villa     48569
Ba 30
Cisse 71                                   Keane 45
01/02     Blackburn     0     (0)     -     (1)     2     Newcastle     20817
                                    Dann og 12
Obertan 90
21/01     Fulham     5     (0)     -     (1)     2     Newcastle     25692
Murphy pen 52
Dempsey 59
Dempsey 65
Zamora pen 68
Dempsey 89                                   e 43
Ben Arfa 85
15/01     Newcastle     1     (1)     -     (0)     0     QPR     49865
Best 37                                   
04/01     Newcastle     3     (1)     -     (0)     0     Man Utd     52299
Ba 33
Cabaye 47
Jones og 90

lets not forget the other 4 and 5 goal maulings newcastle have suffered in between their wins, theyve had 5 or 6 good hammerings

Newcastle have played with a lot of authority in recent games (Wigan the exception). They lost 2-1 at the Emirates and many teams would have found it hard to recover from a 90th minute goal given the effort they put in but they went on to win 6 on the bounce. Are there any odds-compilers from any fixed odds bookmaking firm out there. Perhaps one of them can explain how they arrived at a price range of 4/9 to 4/7 for M City to beat N Utd on Sunday.

City have failed to beat a top 9 side (on the day) away in the league all season

one of the most desperately contrived stats i have ever seen on here

You say 1 to 2 doesn't make sense, so what price would make sense ?

anyway they beat bolton away who won 4-0 at qpr on the opening day in the 2nd game of the season. surely bolton were in the top 2 when they played city ?

every tom, d1ck and harry that is not geordie will back man city. Even at 4/7 they bookies will have a very polarised book

The price is cramped because the "they have to win factor" decreases it the price would be exactly the same if united were going there

Re Kenilworth (626PM). I think City would ordinarily be at least odds against with the draw 9/4 leaving Newcastle at about 7/2 (reflecting the risk  the Wigan result might impact team belief).

City would have been odds on anyway if it were say 6 weeks ago 4-5 ish imo.
The scenario now means 1-2 is about the price to be. Doesnt make it value though.
Remember Liverpool were around 6-5 to win at St James last month?????Despite them being awful.

i take it as the price hasnt moved ,you havnt been mortgaging the house and lumping on newcastle,or is there nothing left after last nights bet of a lifetime 3,95 on utd,

We know for definite that Newcastle will be up for it, having lost
just 2 games at home this season, and as they sit equal 4th, should be
a match for ManC who are not quite the same team away as they are at home.
For whatever reason, Newcastle are thought to be over achieving all
season hence the ManC price. I would have City no shorter than 4/5.

so if roles were reversed and utd were playing away at newcastle and were 2 games from title,you,d expect to get 4 to 5 , LOL,dream on,

I'd rate them 4/5, and would be happy to lay them at
the ridiculous price they would be.

I am laying Man City at the rediculous price of 1 to 2 to win the league. I will look to close at or around half-time on Sunday when City will 4 to 5 to win league and odds against to win Sunday's match. Market error in a risk judger's favour.

I agree as I have City at bigger than 1/2. It's not the
sort of market I am comfortable in, so I won't be betting.

What price are city at newcastle? QPR are non entities.

1.60

hmmmmmm

ROy, don't forget ManC can win it without winning
at Newcastle.

ROy, don't forget ManC can win it without winning
at Newcastle.

So much dependes on the result at Chelsea tomorrow night, if they lose, they'll probably resign themselves to the Europa League, which will have a sub-conscious effect on Saturdays match.

Their price is fair as Man Utd will not win another point this season. So Unless Man City get tonked in both their games the league is theirs.

Kenilworth. Hope you piled in and backed your instinct.

have odds changed

Cubanpete behave yourself :)... Man United 2 wins, city to draw one... you heard it from me :)

Gone out from 1.50/1.51 to 1.53/1.54 already. Don't miss the Utd train!

Very well done to Newcastle last night, didn't see that coming at all, stunning result!   Biased though I am, I still think City are strong favs to win at SJP or whatever it is called these days.  Main thing is the barcodes will still be playing for a win, only way to frustrate this City side is to play for a draw, even though it didn't work for him SBF knew this and knew what he was doing on Monday night. 

Expecting a good game though, Newcastle were one of the livelier sides at the Etihad this season, in fact IMO played better than any other side to visit us in the Prem.  We just had too much class for them then and hopefully will now, I hope they find a way to finish 4th though they deserve it.

It will be even shorter after Saturday when Swansea play Man United off the park. You watch.

i think swansea will create loads of problems for united, but will tire towards the hour mark.
united to scrape a lucky win.

May 3, 2012 -- 11:09AM, MyOhMy wrote:

It will be even shorter after Saturday when Swansea play Man United off the park. You watch.

they might play them off the park saturday but only the sunday will count

sunday game*

are they playing a dress rehearsal game on saturday

Us shrewdies got 33/1 on city just under 3 weeks ago.

1/2 should be snapped up.  The fact you can even get a price on city lifting the trophy is an absolute gift

why snap up 1/2 when you can get a higher price on them beating newcastle (plus whatever price they will be against QPR)

it wont happen but man city can lose to newcastle and it wouldnt matter as sunderland will beat man utd on the final day anyway.

prob all done and dusted sunday tho.  once utd watch city smash an avge newcastle side they will be crushed and prob draw against swansea

you have a lot of faith in your convictions
i agree that united could lose points, but i wouldnt be so sure as you obviously are.
anyhow, enjoy the last couple of weeks of the season whatever happens.

fallen angel, you fail to take into account
that the 1/2 for the league is not the same
as winning two games, in fact they will win
by just getting at the same points or more
than their Manu rivals.

i only pointed this out as you said city will smash newcastle, so i assumed you thought they would also beat qpr.

I didn't say ManC would smash Newcastle, all I have said
is that 1.60 was too short, more like 4/5 IMO. I see the
price is now the equivelent of 8/11.

sorry mate, it was 'ilovelategoals' who said it.
thought i was talking to him. apologies

ok

What price does make sense?

IMO about 8/13.

I am still of the view City should be odds against on Sunday and have them as an 11/8 shot with 9/4 the draw and united about 10/3. Newcastle's result last night (which I expected) confirmed my original cause for starting this topic. One other point to consider. Hart did not have a save to make on Monday but looked decidedly uneasy at crosses and taking command of his goal area. Not a good oman ahead of Cisse and Ba.

how do you price up the league?

how do you price up the league?

I think a lay of City for the league, before Newcastle/Swansea, is the call. Then back them afterwards when they will win against QPR and Utd could slip up against Sunderland.

The fate of the league lies in the North-east.

REF Bob.Vegas11.19. If the remaining games were of the same degree of easiness I would have MC @ 1.40 and MU at 3.50. However, as the NU game is at least twice as hard for MC to get a victory as for MU at Sunderland (a team in relative poor form over the last 4 weeks or so), I would say MC should be in the 1.70 - 1.75 region with MU about 2.5. They are currently 1.59 having been 1.50 when I first started the topic.

thanks mate