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City have failed to beat a top 9 side (on the day) away in the league all season other than man u. Newcastle are the premier league home form side (other than man city). They don't lose goals at home. Man City heavily odds on to win on Sunday and Newcastle over 5 to 1 just doesn't stack up. City should be 5 to 4 against at worst.
If Newcastle do not lose any ground on Wednesday in league with both Chelsea and Spurs, I expect market to change dramatically. A Newcastle final position of fourth will add wonders to Pardew's CV. I can't see how he will not ask his players to give Wednesday and Sunday their all.
Anyone any thoughts.
If Newcastle do not lose any ground on Wednesday in league with both Chelsea and Spurs, I expect market to change dramatically. A Newcastle final position of fourth will add wonders to Pardew's CV. I can't see how he will not ask his players to give Wednesday and Sunday their all.
Anyone any thoughts.
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Replies: 59
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are spurs not in top 9
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they wern't at the time,
lies damn lies and all that  |
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They weren't top 9 because their first game was postponed. What an utterly rubbish stat. And Norwich had probably just slipped from 9th to 10th as well.
If Newcastle follow their 4-0 loss to Wigan with a thrashing against a buoyant Chelsea side then they will go into the match low on confidence but desperately needing a win to keep their top 4 hopes alive. That is a very dangerous combination against the current City side. Sides that attack against City usually get their throats ripped out and combine that with dented confidence and you have a recipe for an easy City win. Best thing for City then is that QPR come needing a win to stay up as they too will not be able to set up with 9 defensive players and will leave space for City to do maximum damage. 1 to 2 looks value to me. |
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Dented confidence. LOLLERS.
They ripped Wigan apart in the 2nd half could have scored 4 themselves. Newcastle and Sunderland are difficult propositions at home. Those 2 games are not gimmees. |
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Newcastle have won 8 & drawn 2 of there last 10 home games.
Man City have only won 4 (Wigan,Villa,Norwich & Wolves)of their last 12 aways. Man City must be considered a value lay against Newcastle and the league outright at current prices. |
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Unlucky 4-0 losers. Heard it all now...
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Newcastle werent unlucky losers. HTH.
Seems we were discussing dented confidence. HTAH. |
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Thanks Ell (426PM). The point I am making is that 1.5 is very poor value and completely the wrong price unless the market is expecting MU to slip up against Sunderland. If NU hadn't played Wolves last Saturday would they be 5/1? No. Wigan are going through a period that can be described as freak. The chances of any provincial club beating each of Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle again over a 4 or 5 week period is most unlikely. Newcastle can't suddenly become a 5/1 chance to win at home (having won 8 of their last 10 home games) on the back of one freak away result. I doubt they would be as much as 5/1 to beat either of Bayern Munich or Chelsea at home and these teams are both in the Champions League Final.
BTW Ozzie (238PM). Spurs were in bottom quartile prior to kick-off. |
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To be fair Newcastle have hardly played any of the top sides at home recently (liverpool is hardly a top side in current form) or away to be honest, so it is quite difficult to judge their particular form
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28/04 Wigan 4 (4) - (0) 0 Newcastle 22187
Moses 13 Moses 15 Maloney 36 Di Santo 45 21/04 Newcastle 3 (2) - (0) 0 Stoke 52162 Cabaye 14 Cisse 18 Cabaye 57 09/04 Newcastle 2 (0) - (0) 0 Bolton 52264 Ben Arfa 73 Cisse 83 06/04 Swansea 0 (0) - (1) 2 Newcastle 19874 Cisse 5 Cisse 69 01/04 Newcastle 2 (1) - (0) 0 Liverpool 52363 Cisse 19 Cisse 59 25/03 West Brom 1 (0) - (3) 3 Newcastle 25049 Long 52 Cisse 6 Ben Arfa 12 Cisse 34 18/03 Newcastle 1 (1) - (0) 0 Norwich 47833 Cisse 11 12/03 Arsenal 2 (1) - (1) 1 Newcastle 60095 van Persie 15 Vermaelen 90 04/03 Newcastle 1 (0) - (1) 1 Sunderland 52388 Shola Ameobi 90 Bendtner pen 24 25/02 Newcastle 2 (2) - (0) 2 Wolves 52287 Cisse 6 Gutierrez 18 Jarvis 50 Doyle 66 11/02 Tottenham 5 (4) - (0) 0 Newcastle 36176 Assou-Ekotto 4 Saha 6 Saha 20 Kranjcar 34 Adebayor 64 05/02 Newcastle 2 (1) - (1) 1 Aston Villa 48569 Ba 30 Cisse 71 Keane 45 01/02 Blackburn 0 (0) - (1) 2 Newcastle 20817 Dann og 12 Obertan 90 21/01 Fulham 5 (0) - (1) 2 Newcastle 25692 Murphy pen 52 Dempsey 59 Dempsey 65 Zamora pen 68 Dempsey 89 e 43 Ben Arfa 85 15/01 Newcastle 1 (1) - (0) 0 QPR 49865 Best 37 04/01 Newcastle 3 (1) - (0) 0 Man Utd 52299 Ba 33 Cabaye 47 Jones og 90 |
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lets not forget the other 4 and 5 goal maulings newcastle have suffered in between their wins, theyve had 5 or 6 good hammerings
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Newcastle have played with a lot of authority in recent games (Wigan the exception). They lost 2-1 at the Emirates and many teams would have found it hard to recover from a 90th minute goal given the effort they put in but they went on to win 6 on the bounce. Are there any odds-compilers from any fixed odds bookmaking firm out there. Perhaps one of them can explain how they arrived at a price range of 4/9 to 4/7 for M City to beat N Utd on Sunday.
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City have failed to beat a top 9 side (on the day) away in the league all season
 one of the most desperately contrived stats i have ever seen on here |
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You say 1 to 2 doesn't make sense, so what price would make sense ?
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anyway they beat bolton away who won 4-0 at qpr on the opening day in the 2nd game of the season. surely bolton were in the top 2 when they played city ?
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every tom, d1ck and harry that is not geordie will back man city. Even at 4/7 they bookies will have a very polarised book
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The price is cramped because the "they have to win factor" decreases it the price would be exactly the same if united were going there
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Re Kenilworth (626PM). I think City would ordinarily be at least odds against with the draw 9/4 leaving Newcastle at about 7/2 (reflecting the risk the Wigan result might impact team belief).
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City would have been odds on anyway if it were say 6 weeks ago 4-5 ish imo.
The scenario now means 1-2 is about the price to be. Doesnt make it value though. Remember Liverpool were around 6-5 to win at St James last month?????Despite them being awful. |
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i take it as the price hasnt moved ,you havnt been mortgaging the house and lumping on newcastle,or is there nothing left after last nights bet of a lifetime 3,95 on utd,
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We know for definite that Newcastle will be up for it, having lost
just 2 games at home this season, and as they sit equal 4th, should be a match for ManC who are not quite the same team away as they are at home. For whatever reason, Newcastle are thought to be over achieving all season hence the ManC price. I would have City no shorter than 4/5. |
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so if roles were reversed and utd were playing away at newcastle and were 2 games from title,you,d expect to get 4 to 5 , LOL,dream on,
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I'd rate them 4/5, and would be happy to lay them at
the ridiculous price they would be. |
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I am laying Man City at the rediculous price of 1 to 2 to win the league. I will look to close at or around half-time on Sunday when City will 4 to 5 to win league and odds against to win Sunday's match. Market error in a risk judger's favour.
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I agree as I have City at bigger than 1/2. It's not the
sort of market I am comfortable in, so I won't be betting. |
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What price are city at newcastle? QPR are non entities.
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1.60
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hmmmmmm
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ROy, don't forget ManC can win it without winning
at Newcastle. |
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ROy, don't forget ManC can win it without winning
at Newcastle. |
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So much dependes on the result at Chelsea tomorrow night, if they lose, they'll probably resign themselves to the Europa League, which will have a sub-conscious effect on Saturdays match.
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Their price is fair as Man Utd will not win another point this season. So Unless Man City get tonked in both their games the league is theirs.
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Kenilworth. Hope you piled in and backed your instinct.
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have odds changed
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Cubanpete behave yourself :)... Man United 2 wins, city to draw one... you heard it from me :)
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Gone out from 1.50/1.51 to 1.53/1.54 already. Don't miss the Utd train!
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Very well done to Newcastle last night, didn't see that coming at all, stunning result! Biased though I am, I still think City are strong favs to win at SJP or whatever it is called these days. Main thing is the barcodes will still be playing for a win, only way to frustrate this City side is to play for a draw, even though it didn't work for him SBF knew this and knew what he was doing on Monday night.
Expecting a good game though, Newcastle were one of the livelier sides at the Etihad this season, in fact IMO played better than any other side to visit us in the Prem. We just had too much class for them then and hopefully will now, I hope they find a way to finish 4th though they deserve it. |
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It will be even shorter after Saturday when Swansea play Man United off the park. You watch.
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i think swansea will create loads of problems for united, but will tire towards the hour mark.
united to scrape a lucky win. |