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Lay 0-0 - 100 bets challenge.

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By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 11:05
Here is the current season equivalent table.

    2019/20        Teams        Games        H        D        R        SD        A        FHG        SHG        TG        R        0-0 HT        SHG   
    EPL        20        179        42%        5.0%        4        20%        33%        1.31        1.52        2.83        5        27%        82%   
    Championship        24        275        45%        4.4%        3        23%        28%        1.11        1.56        2.67        8        31%        86%   
    SPL        12        111        46%        9.0%        11        16%        29%        1.24        1.59        2.83        5        30%        70%   
    Bundesliga        18        153        45%        3.9%        1        18%        33%        1.41        1.80        3.22        2        20%        84%   
    Serie A        20        169        40%        6.5%        6        17%        37%        1.27        1.63        2.90        3        28%        77%   
    La Liga        20        180        46%        9.4%        12        18%        26%        1.08        1.53        2.61        9        37%        74%   
    La Championnat        20        187        51%        7.5%        8        17%        25%        1.18        1.32        2.50        11        29%        74%   
    Eredivisie        18        162        51%        4.3%        2        15%        30%        1.53        1.70        3.23        1        22%        80%   
    Juplier        16        159        48%        5.7%        5        19%        28%        1.26        1.58        2.84        4        23%        75%   
    Primeira Liga        18        126        44%        8.7%        10        18%        29%        1.10        1.37        2.46        12        29%        70%   
    Ligi 1        18        144        40%        6.9%        7        22%        32%        1.22        1.62        2.83        5        31%        77%   
    Ethniki Katigoria        14        112        48%        8.0%        9        19%        25%        1.19        1.42        2.61        9        33%        76%   
    Average                        46%        6.6%                19%        30%        1.24        1.55        2.79                28%        77%   
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 11:06
If you like your goals, and who doesn't, Holland and Germany are the place for you Grin
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 11:18
A bit easier on the eye ......

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By:
gazman78
When: 24 Dec 19 11:39
Great data but what I have noticed is the streaky nature of results, it’s not often you would get 2 0-0 in the same league in the same match week, 1 nil nil every 10-15 games on average, then sometimes no nil nil for 4-5 weeks.  Using a league which has staggered games over the course of a weekend/match week. Wait until a nil nil game has happened then bet on next 10 matches, then wait until 0-0 has occurred then start again. Admittedly not as exciting as betting on almost every game available but might help people get further towards 100 games. Good luck all
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 12:11
When you break down the data by month, you see an underbelly of inevitable 0-0 matches.
The trick then is to try and identify what the key ingredients are for a 0-0 and seek to avoid them.

Problem is, there are so many factors at play.
And even if they could be identified, they will be factored in to the pricing whilst remaining subject to random acts and human fallibility.

Follow a set number of leagues and get to know the team, or at least have some required criteria that requires to be present.
Introduces a certain degree of discipline, eliminates some of the randomness and impulsive behaviours.
By:
posy
When: 24 Dec 19 12:27
Angoose it's extremely good of you to publish this information ; there's a lot to think about . At a basic level it's going to be really helpful in both pointing out leagues to bet on and equally important those to avoid.
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 13:06
Here is some current season data for the EPL.

The top left graph shows result type per matchday.
The top right is cumulative result type.

Bottom left is goals per matchday with spli per half.
Bottom right is when goals are scored in fifteen minute blocks with time added on shown separately.

Interesting that the spread across the fifteen minutes blocks is reasonably even but the middle block is the highest in both halves.
I was interested to know the occurrence of late goals, will now have a look at matches with just one goal to see when it was scored.

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By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 13:13
posy, I like playing with spreadsheets and the raw data was easily available so more than willing to share it on a thread such as this.
At the end of the day, you will never be bale to produce a fool proof formula, but a little bit of analysis increases your interest.

One thing that I have taken from it is never to give up on the possibility of a late goal.
They can and do happen and you should be prepared to position yourself to benefit from it regardless of who scores it.

I recently had a late goal help me out.
It was in a Dutch match and came in the 93rd minute to make it 2-1.

Time passed whilst the market was suspended and unsuspended and I went to cash out my bat for an all green screen.
It was only partially greened up when an equaliser went in.

Bizarrely, this helped me as I was now on the draw at a big price Grin
By:
posy
When: 24 Dec 19 15:41
If backing over 0.5 goals it would seem sensible to place bet after around 20 minutes rather than prematch ;or perhaps a combination of the two. As I've said there's a heck of a lot of info to assimilate and consider if trying to come up with a system based approach.
I had a look at the football data website which has some interesting articles ;some (most) of the maths is above my pay grade.
By:
ian merseyside
When: 24 Dec 19 16:54
I haven't got the stats to prove it, maybe it's just my perception, but 0-0 draws seem to be happening more often.  Just off the top of my head I can think of 4 televised matches within the last week that have all ended up goalless.

Barcelona v Real Madrid
Everton v Arsenal
Real Madrid v Bilbao
Blackburn v Wigan

With the possible exception of the Blackburn match, none of the pre-match odds suggested a low goals count.
By:
Minos66
When: 24 Dec 19 17:34
Bet 1 El Entag El harby v Zamalek Over 0.5 Goals 10 @ 1.1
By:
gibmark
When: 24 Dec 19 17:51
interesting stat , think i m right , Fulham havent had a home league 0-0 game in 5 years
By:
gibmark
When: 24 Dec 19 17:53
Posy , i do agree with you , nearly always better to do in play , just much better price , if you miss it by early goal , not great loss , as theres plenty of other game to back
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 18:27
EPL 0-0 for last five complete seasons 31,32,27,32,22  9 so far this season which at 5% of games is lower than last seasons 5.8%
Championship 46,57,34,49,39 12 so far this season 4.4% versus 7.1% last season
La Liga 30,25,27,28,28  17 this season, 9.4% versus 7.4% last season
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 18:29
Here's an interesting one though in Serie A
2018/19  Home wins 44% Away wins 28%
2019/20  Home wins 40% Away wins 37%

Looks very dramatic when viewed on a graphic which is on its way …...
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 18:34
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By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 18:38
For years, I wasn't a big fan of graphs but now, I just can't get enough of them, they tell the story so much better than data tables.
Serie A away wins were on a rising trend, dipped last season, but now on the charge and getting very close to home wins.

What would be interesting though is a comparison of data for a comparable number of matches to understand if there is a pattern where away wins drop off later in the season.

The EPL is showing a drop off on home wins, 42% this season from last seasons 48%, score draws are up from 13% to 20%.
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 18:47
What may be an idea for your 0-0 lay experiment is to split your starting bank in to two pots.

One pot can be the high volume when you simply want an interest on a high frequency basis.
The other can be the more selective pot where you try to apply a methodology.

In general, I avoid getting involved in football betting pre-kick off, allowing things to settle and patterns to be established.
Wish I'd done that last night with Blackburn Sad

You'll miss out from time to time, but you'll also save yourself from getting involved in dire affairs.
So much data feeds and text commentaries available that you can apply your judgement on how things are going before getting involved.

Nothing wrong with being opportunist, backing a short price favourite after they have gone behind to an early goal and play has settled can be a good play.
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 24 Dec 19 19:18
How do you lay 0-0s? I can only find the over 1.5s can't find the 0.5
By:
posy
When: 24 Dec 19 19:19
bet 1 maccabe v hapoel  over 0.5 £10@ 1.3
By:
posy
When: 24 Dec 19 19:19
bet 1 maccabe v hapoel  over 0.5 £10@ 1.3
By:
posy
When: 24 Dec 19 19:20
Fucck me 30seconds after posting a goal !
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 19:21
Here's another quirky one.

Shots at goal for the past five EPL seasons plus this one to date are 52,747.
Shots on target, 17,823 which is roughly one in three (2.96).
Goals of 5,661, or 1 per three shots on target (3.15).

Need to do a bit more with the data, but a rough rule of thumb is that three shots at goal will generate one shot on target, and three shots on target will produce one goal.

So you need nine shots at goal to generate one goal.
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 19:21

Dec 24, 2019 -- 7:20PM, posy wrote:


Fucck me 30seconds after posting a goal !


Always nice when that happens if you were on Grin

By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 24 Dec 19 19:38
Ah found it

Have to go to the actual game durr Plain
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 24 Dec 19 19:41
Wont be doing this until after the new year but I bet its harder than it looks

Always one game that ends up being a totally boring 0-0 like last nights Championship game

Derby have been good all season for this type of bet, I think they've had zero 0-0s for about a year now according to my Derby supporting mate, and their defence is like a sieve apparently
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 19:48
Derby have been involved in 22 0-0 league matches since the 2014/15 season.
That's 22 out of 253 matches, a no score draw percentage of 8.7%, the Championship average for that period is 7.8%.
By:
Angoose
When: 24 Dec 19 19:49
Just the one this season.
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 24 Dec 19 20:00
So they wouldn't be good laying 0-0s then Crazy

The one 0-0 this season kills it as well
By:
posy
When: 24 Dec 19 20:13
Only £8.60 matched !
By:
posy
When: 25 Dec 19 13:14
bet2  enppi v el hodood   over 0.5  £12.53   1.32
By:
posy
When: 25 Dec 19 13:14
bet2  enppi v el hodood   over 0.5  £12.53   1.32
By:
posy
When: 25 Dec 19 15:22
lost again
By:
Angoose
When: 25 Dec 19 15:55
Back to the drawing board Sad
By:
Minos66
When: 25 Dec 19 21:49
Bet 1 Tottenham v Brighton Over 0.5 Goals 10 @ 1.05
By:
Minos66
When: 26 Dec 19 13:29
Bet 1 WON 10.47
By:
Minos66
When: 26 Dec 19 13:52
Bet 2 Frosinone v Crotone Over 0.5 Goals 10.47 @ 1.1
By:
Minos66
When: 26 Dec 19 14:29
Bet 2 WON 11.47
By:
Minos66
When: 26 Dec 19 14:48
Bet 3 Barnsley v West Brom Over 0.5 Goals 11.47 @ 1.04
By:
Minos66
When: 26 Dec 19 15:14
Bet 3 WON 11.91
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