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365 1.02s consecutively from £50
365 1.02s consecutively from £50
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Replies: 2,834
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Im up to £200 now in two weeks!
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lay of over 6.5 goals £10 at 60 matched ac milan v lazio, backed unquoted
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Bet18- just had a sneaky 10 spot on welcome approach to be placed in the 20:05 @ kempton. Returned £4.12 profit .
Current bank £111:00 |
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that milan game is worrying elis!
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dannycardiff 26 Jan 12 10:02
Thanks Joci I think I have grasped it! My problem was getting my head around the fact of what would happen if it wasnt a draw, but then of course you have layed it in the first place! One more thing please. what is the formula for working out how much to back once the goal goes in and the price moves? i.e the 6 pound bet sorry for being semi retarded and all Dan - what you can do, once a goal has gone in, to wake out your breakeven point if it is a draw, is to take your liability from originally laying the draw (in my example £25.00), and dividing this by the new 'back' odds after the goal is scored. In my example, this gave £25.00 / 4.6 = 5.43 [remember if the back odds are 5.6, it's really 4.6). So to break even on the draw result, you would back bet £5.43. Your profit if it wasn't a draw would then be £10.00 - £5.43 = £4.57. However, if you want to guarantee a little more in the event of a draw, just put a little more on iy, whilst remembering if you wager more on the draw, it reduces your profit on the 'non draw' side. Hope that makes sense. |
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wake out?
work out, of course! Dan - what you can do, once a goal has gone in, to work out your breakeven point if it is a draw, is to take your liability from originally laying the draw (in my example £25.00), and dividing this by the new 'back' odds after the goal is scored. In my example, this gave £25.00 / 4.6 = 5.43 [remember if the back odds are 5.6, it's really 4.6). So to break even on the draw result, you would bet £5.43. Your profit if it wasn't a draw would then be £10.00 - £5.43 = £4.57. However, if you want to guarantee a little more in the event of a draw, just put a little more on it, whilst remembering if you wager more on the draw, it reduces your profit on the 'non draw' side. Hope that makes sense. |
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yes tony, 3 quick goals put me on back foot, but that cover on unquoted £ 7 at 11 is a great trading tool , played that market and the 6.5 goals market all 1st half, and now hope for a unquoted score to win £2, the over 6.5 costs me now £19, under levels
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how much u got on unquoted elisjohn?
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originally £8 at 11 , but laying that when it was 2.54 , while backing the over 6.5 , so now unquoted wins me £2
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its prob just me but, if you have layed over 6.5 £10 @ 60 (liability £600) and backed unquoted £7 @ 11 (returns £77) how can you only lose £19 if over 6.5? and win £2 if unquoted?
I cant work it out from what you have put? |
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all i can tell you is there was 26 bets made in first half, at the end of the match after taking cash back etc correct score showed profit £30, unquoted £ 31.80, and under 6.5 coating me £ 30, overs costing £17, so actually i was wrong the overs would have won me £ 13 in the end
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oh i see i thought it was just the 2 bets not serveral. my apologies. Keep up the good work.
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tez, say i back unders £ 500 at 1.03, and back unquoted £ 15 at 10, if there is a early goal, then i would say back the overs for maybe £5to lessen the liability and i would lay the unquoted at the new lesser odds , and i would continue to do this especially if more goals.its my way to cover a big outlay, , but whats good if two or three goals the unquoted comes right down , and still the unders is reasonable high , sorry if doesnt make sense, it does to me
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It makes sense to me. I do a similar thing but with more risk. I back under 4.5 goals to win £5 and put £5 on over 1.5, if the goal comes really early I take the £5 from 1.5 and wack it on over 2.5, usually put some more on under 4.5 at the new price.
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yeh makes sense elisjohn. Good covering that way. nearly at 1k now, keep it up mate.
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Good day today, meant I made the £550 target:
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Soccer / Santos v Ituano : Match Odds 26/01/2012 23:00 27/01/2012 00:51 -5 Soccer / Penarol v Caracas FC : Match Odds 26/01/2012 22:45 27/01/2012 00:41 4.14 Soccer / Internacional RS v Ceramica RS : Match Odds 26/01/2012 21:30 26/01/2012 23:29 1.52 Soccer / Juventude RS v EC Pelotas RS : Match Odds 26/01/2012 21:30 26/01/2012 23:25 2.93 Soccer / Mogi Mirim v Guarani SP : Match Odds 26/01/2012 21:30 26/01/2012 23:24 2.47 Soccer / Levante v Valencia : Match Odds 26/01/2012 20:30 26/01/2012 22:14 3.33 Soccer / Estoril v Atletico CP : Match Odds 26/01/2012 20:15 26/01/2012 22:07 5.23 Soccer / Standard v Mons : Match Odds 26/01/2012 19:30 26/01/2012 21:27 6.94 Soccer / Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso : Match Odds 26/01/2012 19:00 26/01/2012 20:56 11.78 Soccer / Al Kharaitiyat v Qatar SC : Match Odds 26/01/2012 15:30 26/01/2012 17:21 5.23 Soccer / Al Jaish v Lekhwiya : Match Odds 26/01/2012 13:30 26/01/2012 15:25 1.43 Soccer / Estonia U21 v Turkmenistan U21 : Match Odds 26/01/2012 13:30 26/01/2012 15:17 -8.5 Soccer / Linense SP v Sao Caetano : Match Odds 25/01/2012 23:50 26/01/2012 01:40 2.74 Soccer / Santos v Ituano : Match Odds 26/01/2012 23:00 27/01/2012 00:51 -5 Soccer / Penarol v Caracas FC : Match Odds 26/01/2012 22:45 27/01/2012 00:41 4.14 Start Bank - £10.00 Current Bank - £564.29 Next Target - £575.00 Little steps........ Good luck all! |
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bank still £936, lay over 6.5 spurs v watford £30 at30, backed unquoted £25 at 6.2
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so what do you guys think is the best way of doing this/ the best markets to bet on. I don't really fancy tennis matches or horses for that matter. I prefer when a team is up 2-0 then lumping it all on with about 12 minutes to go. Either that or back under 6.5 goals before kick off. Any hints would be greatly appreciated.
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joci whats the best strategy here mate. (or any one else want to shead some light the best thing to be doing here )
should i be just be happy to nick a few quid a game? £5-£10 a match ? i have no twice been fcuked by some freak goals at the end of the match - lost 400 last night on some stupid match - should have redded out but was not thinking straight, i thought the unthinkable would not happen and with the last kick of the game - 5 -0 GAME OVER i normally back under 6.5 or 5.5 goals or back teams when they are 2-0 to get better odds of something i was with you at the £500 mark the other day and BANG one bet and your £0. all from betting on the 1.02's strategy with a few more attractively priced odds bets thrown in. im starting again for one final time with £100, skipping the first few bets in the 1.02 challenge. does everyone think??? any advise in my last attempt would gratefully appreciated |
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cfcfan, i usually do under 5.5 or 6.5, but i will back say over 3.5 or uquoted, ok youre winnings could well be much less, but like i did last night in milan match after 3 quick goals youre able to trade out of probable trouble, and also you could win on both bets, good luck anyway, jolly i wouldnt touch tennis, murray was trading 50s today and was only 1 break down, 3 games later he was odds on , i still think 2 0 up in soccer with 12 mins to go is risky, one goal back with 10 mins to go is horrible feeling and these days every game has 5 mins injury time,
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JOCI how do you go about picking your games to lay the draw? Do you only pick games where both teams odds are more or less the same?
Iv seen games before where there is a strong fav and the underdog scores first & the odds on the draw dont move at all. |
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@elis
very interesting, but i don't think i understand 100% what you're doing ;) could you give an actual example? let's take Hannover vs. Nurnberg tonight. you're starting with under5.5 @1.05 and unquoted @14. what is your staking? how do you trade during the game if there is an early goal, no goal 1st half, no goal at all, etc? how do you react? |
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Under 5.05 would jump to 1.15 (10% stake loss?) if a goal so you trade out a bit, and unquoted would drop (if it's the favourites) and you would trade that out a bit. As long as your winnings from under 5.5 cover your unquoted bet you will profit.
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5.5*
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loaded has answered johonny,, the ideal scenario for me would be 2 0 ht score, where unquoted would trade quite low and the over 6.5 would still be massive, no need to trade now is there, then say 4 1 final score you win on both bets, and if say hannover are winning 4 0 after 70 mins youre unquoted would be up and then if need you can use that winnings to cover youre under 5.5 or 6.5 . if no goals at all , make sure youre unders bet say £ 15 stake, and youre unquoted is £13 so you might make £2 off the bet .
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surely its better for all these people to just try it with small small stake and find out themselves.
best way to learn is just do it, and eff up plenty then youll learn and find your own niche little way of making some money. things like lay the draw been around for years. google it theres plenty of info on how to go about it. i admire your disicpline elis! |
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does anyone know where to find stats of how many premier league games there have been,in which over 6 goals, in total, have been scored in the course of a season?
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check here if it helps...
http://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england |
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thanks loaded&elis!
i get it now |
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Bet 19- £10 on under 2.5 goals in Almere city game @ 1.61 & layed off @ 1.39 for £2 profit if succesfull.
FA cup wknd- come on boro... |
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just took cash out on unquoted before the goal
 for a loss of £ 16, but backed over 6.5 £5 at 150, so as it stands looks like ive made £ 9 on the match, unless over 6.5 would still cost me approx £ 150 ,but probably put £ 2 on that to green out. so profit &7. new bank £ 943 . |
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joci, you must be hammering in profit tonight, goals everywhere
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Tonight's been good, but I had a bad morning / early afternoon, and have been in recovery mode since then. Lost quite a lot on an Israeli draw again (and that was after redding out). Scenario where the unfancied away team laeds for most of the game then the home side equalised late on. Also lost out on another game due to very bad reception on my Android phone.
Have scraped most of it back tonight, so almost where I was at the end of last night. Will post up final position / bets a bit later when everything's done. |
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I'm green on the Portugal game, but a nice equaliser for Nacional would see me get a nicer profit from the game.
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might tie me up , but layed zimbabwe at avg 50 for £ 18, test match
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hey guys, Glad to see your all doing well still.
Ive started a new challenge. Im starting with £20 but have split it into 2 seperate accounts one using betfair and the other a traditional online bookmaker. I wont post my bets until i get some thing substantial to metnion really. but iim still aiming for my 4 targets of different amounts. but going to take it steady and im hoping that the 2 seperate accounts will give me more of a lifeline to fall back on. Also i will be putting a small amount into the aussie wallet each day so i can steadily build up a small bank to fall back on if things go pear shaped. Keep up the good work guys. |
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greened up on zimbabwe theyre 9 for 3 wkts , so £ 12 profit on all 3 results
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I layed Murray to beat Djokovic 3-0 @ 13 for £17 this morning but 90% of the bets I do are under 6.5 goals before kick off all on! I'm on about bet 70 now!
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didnt expect zimbabwe to be bowled out twice in 2 sessions, pathetic effort, but great for me my £ 12 winnings brings my new bank to £955
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Almost there....keep it up!
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