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Investor2, so is it worth (time-technology-margin) to be a market maker? Can you do it as a one-man show? Or you have people working for you?
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TheInvestor2 05 Nov 12 16:32 Joined: 28 May 11 | Topic/replies: 1,858 | Blogger: TheInvestor2's blog
Yes benny, massively important as far as I'm concerned. The stat above is actually what I care most about of all! It is pretty time consuming, but I've discovered interesting stuff pouring over my bets. With my manual trading only, I've had 46456 bets matched over the last 30 days on football. My question would be how on earth could that possibly NOT be worth analysing in minute detail! With my ultra low margin / high volume market making activity, I've always suspected that it must be the case that people out there are systematically beating me with a fat margin of multiple %, and I'm making that back balancing supply / demand against the fun bettors and taking my tiny fraction of 1%. The guys with the fat margins are probably people like you , and I want to skew my positions in the same direction as the people that make money with their view of what's going on fundamentally, so I look for ways to see whether large bets are made by someone who really knows something or a rich leisure punter. My aim for the remainder of this year and the coming one, is to keep increasing turnover without further eroding my margins. My margins for 2012 will almost certainly be better than 2011, despite much higher volume, and that will be the first time I've ever achieved that (I've always made more each year than the last, but my margin has always dropped in previous years). That's the way forward! Manually you're a demon. I would have to go full time to match that kind of output. I have a 70 market a day average and I think thats quite good. |
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colonelll
Date Joined: 04 Nov 11 Add contact | Send message 05 Nov 12 17:01 Joined: 04 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 1,598 | Blogger: colonelll's blog that said, if u havent already found a way to profit more than 1% by urself then u wont definitely find a way by searching your bets for other peoples bet and following them Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit Barack Obama 1.19 £40,000.00 £7,400.00 Mitt Romney 6.49 £8,070.39 £44,296.49 £48,070.39 Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability Barack Obama 1.1 £4,750.00 £477.50 Mitt Romney 7.09 £1,444.16 £8,799.73 £6,194.16 Fraction of 1% still good for £296 profit Obama, 246 profit Romney. First bet: Bet matched:22:06 06-Nov-12 Last bet: Bet matched:01:53 07-Nov-12 Not a bad amount of money to make I'm sure you'll agree! My red was never over £4k. That's what I do basically, turn over huge amount and make a (relatively) tiny profit. |
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I had a view that the price for Obama was too big. Obviously, if in cases like this I just 'had a bet', my margin would be higher than 1%! Trading around my view allows me to make more.
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agaz 05 Nov 12 17:15 Joined: 23 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 2,703 | Blogger: agaz's blog
Investor2, so is it worth (time-technology-margin) to be a market maker? Can you do it as a one-man show? Or you have people working for you? Yeah, I think it's worth it, the beauty of it is that it's not worth it for most others, exactly because it's so marginal. I've teamed up with another trader, who has also created the software I use to trade manually. |
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There is one problem here of 'invisible non-runners' in the market, so my cash is tied up until this is done despite being green. Hmmmph
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iv done pretty much the same investor using 2-3k a time the last couple of days, found i was getting matched very quickly
Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit Barack Obama 1.27 €31,725.94 €8,712.83 Mitt Romney 5 €121.24 €484.96 Lay Backer's Odds Backer's Stake Payout Liability Barack Obama 1.28 €38,867.01 €10,691.95 Mitt Romney 3.91 €3,303.00 €9,626.00 |
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Football: -£1,499.55 Total P&L: -£1,499.55
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Ouch SCV not a good return visit to here. Hope all has been well
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un lucky south coast trust you have been doing ok.
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hope all is well and good for you too Pistachio
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going steady ice thanks. See you doing ok.
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yeah still trying to beat up these footie markets and then make the next step up, hopefully sometime later this season. Just being cautious and concentrating on turnover atm
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Evening Ice & Pistachio
Trading has been going well thanks Nov has been decent so far even including my loss tonight Hope you've both been doing well! |
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Good the hear South, never let those pesky losing days ruin a good plan.
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yes well done south and its always best to be cautious ice.
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How's your money making been of late Pistachio, any plans to beat your amazing record
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just had a week away ice and on a 36 not out at the moment so who knows
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will hope you do your record over mate
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nice to see you all still around fella's
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thx i will try but my main aim is not to lose big.
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Ah long lost coach trust you are well .
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...all is dandy Mr Pistachio
Hope you are still winning mate ![]() |
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pistachio
Date Joined: 05 Sep 04 Add contact | Send message 07 Nov 12 22:38 Joined: 05 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 3,795 | Blogger: pistachio's blog thx i will try but my main aim is not to lose big. What we all aspire to Hi Coach, have seen you posting about on forum now and again. hope its been winning ways for you as well. |
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nice work benny, nice profits there!
Bad loss for you southcoast, some crazy results earlier. Ice King, I don't actually do that many markets anymore! I peaked in late 2011, doing about 500 a week. Nowadays I have a much more focused approach, most of the time I only trade one match at a time, sometimes two (one main one, and another I manage more loosely). The focused approach has actually alllowed me to turn over a significant portion of the total that is matched in the whole market for the market I trade. I sometimes hit 10% of all money traded in the over/under 2.5 market for instance. |
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good to see this post is alive and free from unpleasant people.
These have been my % profit month by month this year: Jan-12 -53,9% Feb-12 -21,96% Mar-12 76,08% Apr-12 131,74% May-12 -53,83% Jun-12 162,74% Jul-12 70,15% Aug-12 59,75% Sep-12 104,23% Oct-12 33,45% Later i will post my profit for today, i am in Colombia and my day has not finished yet. Congrats to all winners. ![]() |
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This is my profit for today (07/11):
Fútbol: USD1,110.63 G-P total: USD1,110.63 Fútbol Mostrar 1 - 18 de 18 mercados Mercado Hora de inicio Última fecha establecida Ganancia/pérdida ($) Fútbol / San Jose Earthquakes - Los Angeles : Más/Menos de 4.5 goles 07-nov-12 23:00 08-nov-12 01:21 95,82 Fútbol / San Jose Earthquakes - Los Angeles : Marcador final 07-nov-12 23:00 08-nov-12 01:21 22,20 Fútbol / Barcelona v Liga de Loja : Cuotas de partido 07-nov-12 19:30 07-nov-12 21:27 129,48 Fútbol / Barcelona v Liga de Loja : Más/Menos de 2.5 goles 07-nov-12 19:30 07-nov-12 21:27 44,28 Fútbol / Wilstermann v Petrolero : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 07-nov-12 19:10 07-nov-12 21:09 14,37 Fútbol / Wilstermann v Petrolero : Próximo gol 07-nov-12 19:10 07-nov-12 21:09 0,25 Fútbol / Wilstermann v Petrolero : Marcador final 07-nov-12 19:10 07-nov-12 21:09 10,85 Fútbol / Alianza Lima v Melgar : Marcador final 07-nov-12 18:59 07-nov-12 20:54 17,42 Fútbol / Alianza Lima v Melgar : Más/Menos de 0.5 goles 07-nov-12 18:59 07-nov-12 20:54 7,41 Fútbol / Alianza Lima v Melgar : Cuotas de partido 07-nov-12 18:59 07-nov-12 20:54 163,78 Fútbol / Sao Paulo v Universidad de Chile : Marcador final 2 Local 07-nov-12 18:50 07-nov-12 20:44 6,33 Fútbol / Sao Paulo v Universidad de Chile : Más/Menos de 5.5 goles 07-nov-12 18:50 07-nov-12 20:44 239,50 Fútbol / Arsenal FC - Boca Juniors : Cuotas de partido - No gestionadas 07-nov-12 18:30 07-nov-12 20:37 53,81 Fútbol / El Nacional v Deportivo Quito : Próximo gol 07-nov-12 18:00 07-nov-12 19:54 10,08 Fútbol / El Nacional v Deportivo Quito : Marcador final 07-nov-12 18:00 07-nov-12 19:53 7,27 Fútbol / El Nacional v Deportivo Quito : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 07-nov-12 18:00 07-nov-12 19:53 146,20 Fútbol / Braga - Manchester Utd : Cuotas de partido 07-nov-12 14:45 07-nov-12 16:49 -50,00 Fútbol / Celtic - FC Barcelona : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 07-nov-12 14:45 07-nov-12 16:37 191,58 |
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Last 24 hours
American Football: £19,694.21 | Baseball: £72,324.27 | Basketball: £320,123.45 | Cricket: £332,234.94 | Darts: £220,262.03 | Soccer: £251,714.87 | Tennis: £423,931.41 Total P&L: £1,640,285.18 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7qi2CLZM0Y @ 1.39 |
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he tried his best to be funny doesn't he? poor mutt fails every single time tho.
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08-nov profit:
Fútbol: USD685.29 G-P total: USD685.29 Fútbol Mostrar 1 - 19 de 19 mercados Mercado Hora de inicio Última fecha establecida Ganancia/pérdida ($) Fútbol / Iub Deportivo Belen v Deportivo Saprissa : Marcador final 08-nov-12 21:00 08-nov-12 22:53 0,29 Fútbol / Tigre - Cerro Porteño : Más/menos de 6.5 goles 08-nov-12 19:45 08-nov-12 22:05 170,91 Fútbol / Tigre - Cerro Porteño : Marcador final 2 Local 08-nov-12 19:45 08-nov-12 22:05 6,10 Fútbol / New York Red Bulls -D. C. Utd : Próximo gol 08-nov-12 19:30 08-nov-12 21:47 3,83 Fútbol / New York Red Bulls -D. C. Utd : Marcador final 08-nov-12 19:30 08-nov-12 21:44 161,28 Fútbol / New York Red Bulls -D. C. Utd : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 08-nov-12 19:30 08-nov-12 21:44 198,74 Fútbol / Bolivar v Blooming : Marcador final 08-nov-12 19:10 08-nov-12 21:02 6,32 Fútbol / Nublense v CSD Barnechea : Marcador final 08-nov-12 18:00 08-nov-12 19:55 48,51 Fútbol / Nublense v CSD Barnechea : Más/Menos de 2.5 goles 08-nov-12 18:00 08-nov-12 19:54 56,73 Fútbol / Nublense v CSD Barnechea : Cuotas de partido 08-nov-12 18:00 08-nov-12 19:54 192,12 Fútbol / Univ Católica - Independiente : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 08-nov-12 17:15 08-nov-12 19:08 197,00 Fútbol / Univ Católica - Independiente : Marcador final 08-nov-12 17:15 08-nov-12 19:08 4,73 Fútbol / Sp Lisboa - Genk : Marcador final 08-nov-12 15:05 08-nov-12 17:02 143,70 Fútbol / Ath Bilbao - Lyon : Marcador final 08-nov-12 15:05 08-nov-12 16:58 139,50 Fútbol / Tottenham - NK Maribor : Marcador final 08-nov-12 15:05 08-nov-12 16:57 141,33 Fútbol / Académica - At. Madrid : Marcador final 08-nov-12 13:00 08-nov-12 14:57 95,80 Fútbol / Marsella - M'gladbach : Marcador final 08-nov-12 13:00 08-nov-12 14:54 1,93 Fútbol / Nápoles - Dnipro : Marcador final 08-nov-12 13:00 08-nov-12 14:51 -1.000,01 Fútbol / Neftchi Baku - Rubin Kazan : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 08-nov-12 12:00 08-nov-12 13:50 116,48 |
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good work deusse
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09-nov:
Fútbol: USD463.00 G-P total: USD463.00 Fútbol Mostrar 1 - 3 de 3 mercados Mercado Hora de inicio Última fecha establecida Ganancia/pérdida ($) Fútbol / ASA v Atletico PR : Marcador final 09-nov-12 18:50 09-nov-12 20:47 127,70 Fútbol / Avai v Guarani SP : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 09-nov-12 18:50 09-nov-12 20:40 191,60 Fútbol / Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 09-nov-12 13:00 09-nov-12 14:59 143,70 |
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I cannot believe how bobvegas destroyed this thread, everyone left, and it seems that
nice people who used to post here are not going to come back. Would like to see the post is the same before he came to post here; i also left but know he is not here i think it is a good space to share our results and other experiences without annoying people. |
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American Football: £39.56 | Horse Racing: -£172.43 | Politics: £28.95 | Soccer: £1,445.43 | Tennis: £44.50 Total P&L: £1,386.01
Soccer Showing 1 - 20 of 700 markets Another good week. Just over 2% ROI for the footie, will do me. Fingers crossed for more of this. Could have been so much better but my internet lost connection at a critical stage of a rare trade and got stung for £600 on the Wisla game. Oh well, shtye happens. Deusse i agree. I do wonder if people just posted on here just because is was so much fun annoying Bob though. Will hope the good posters return as well. |
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Betfair forced me to migrate to bet duck and other bookies after putting me on 50 pc premium, so nowt to report over here.
Bob will at least find solace in this thread being a graveyard in the wake of his removal, he can mark this down as one of his life's successes. |
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Kansas City took my trousers down this morning! Too embarrassed to say how far!
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november 2012 profit = £3k
American Football: £83.64 | Basketball: £684.84 | Cricket: £924.20 | Politics: £50.33 | Soccer: £1,283.19 | Tennis: -£851.63 Total P&L: £2,174.57 aus lic Cricket: £893.59 Total P&L: £893.59 |
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my last 30 days not near all of what your making but using a lot smaller bank :)
American Football: £65.30 | Basketball: -£33.57 | Boxing: £15.30 | Darts: £9.30 | Soccer: -£63.10 | Tennis: £93.04 Total P&L: £86.27 American Football Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) American Football / New Orleans @ Atlanta : Moneyline 30-Nov-12 01:20 30-Nov-12 04:39 14.91 American Football / Chicago @ San Francisco : Moneyline 20-Nov-12 01:30 20-Nov-12 04:34 3.79 American Football / Baltimore @ Pittsburgh : Moneyline 19-Nov-12 01:20 19-Nov-12 04:35 14.05 American Football / Arizona @ Atlanta : Moneyline 18-Nov-12 18:00 18-Nov-12 21:16 5.98 American Football / Kansas City @ Pittsburgh : Moneyline 13-Nov-12 01:30 13-Nov-12 04:45 -24.13 American Football / Houston @ Chicago : Moneyline 12-Nov-12 01:20 12-Nov-12 04:33 2.17 American Football / Buffalo @ New England : Moneyline 11-Nov-12 18:00 11-Nov-12 21:17 0.00 American Football / Indianapolis @ Jacksonville : Moneyline 09-Nov-12 01:20 09-Nov-12 04:34 24.15 American Football / Philadelphia @ New Orleans : Moneyline 06-Nov-12 01:30 06-Nov-12 04:40 17.26 American Football / Dallas @ Atlanta : Moneyline 05-Nov-12 01:20 05-Nov-12 04:25 7.12 |
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I know this thread is pretty much dead and nearly buried but i fort i would post again after possibly not doing so for about 3/4 months due the thread bin spoilt by tht idiot (even tht term doesn't do hi/it justice!!!) bob. I still however followed the thread due to posters such as coach, southcoast, pistash, iceking, crazy dave, investor and 1 or 2 others and its a shame to see its ended up like it has.
However i fort i'd just post an update of my year on betfair so far. Since bin made redundant in Jan, (for the 2nd time in 3 yrs...hw unlucky can u get?!) i decided whilst lookin for new employment and having the security of a half decent redundancy package tht i would try and have a go at turning somthing i did as a hobby, with reasonable success on a small scale, into a stop gap job. After a great start i have had a few rocky patches, a great euro 2012 and then a few more ups and downs since but with the end of the year fast approaching, i'm relatively happy with how things have gone. Doing this 'full-time' as made me feel many of the different emotions and has shown me the positives and negatives of trying to be a fottball trader or whtever u'd like to call it and as enabled me to make some sort of living without having to sign on, which is something i am proud of in a way. I have missed my old job and missed been in proper employment greatly but whilst the job market out there remains as bleak as it is, i am hoping i continue to make a go of doing what i have been doing until things pick up. To make matters worse, in October, i sustained a ruptured achilles tendon whilst playing football so without having any sick pay from an employer to rely on, its bin a good job i've managed to make a few quid on here. Not loads but enough to keep me going. My year so far: Feb +1584.45 Mar +2321.77 Apr -252.59 May +608.01 Jun +2187.57 Jul -2500.00 Aug +1984.18 Sep -1362.14 Oct 1503.73 Nov 1802.47 Dec 1281.96 so far Leaving +9000 profit. Like i say, not loads but a lot better than been on the dole and its, in the main, bin an enjoyable 11 months. Just thought i'd share my 2012 on betfair with anyone who still reads the thread and i hope that those who i mentioned before, especially coach, southc and pistash, are still having some success on here. All the best. Cheers. Ps. My Nov P & L below, minus the relevant markets, for any doubters, haha. Football: £1,802.47 | Tote: | Total P&L: £1,802.47 Football Showing 1 - 20 of 200 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Football / Barcelona v Alaves : 13.47 Football / Barcelona v Alaves : 9.55 Football / Wigan v Man City : 4.37 Football / Wigan v Man City : 5.52 Football / Tottenham v Liverpool : 29.32 Football / Tottenham v Liverpool : 5.12 Football / Tottenham v Liverpool : 6.29 Football / Wigan v Man City : 44.91 Football / Atalanta v Cesena : 40.59 Football / Atalanta v Cesena : 13.69 Football / Aston Villa v Reading : 22.52 Football / Aston Villa v Reading : 10.77 Football / Aston Villa v Reading : 5.07 Football / Aston Villa v Reading : 5.73 Football / Aston Villa v Reading : -2.27 Football / FC Brasov v Steaua Bucharest : -35.43 Football / AGF v FC Midtjylland : 85.09 Football / Podbeskidzie B-B v Lech Poznan : -6.81 Football / Zenit St Petersburg v CSKA Moscow : 42.97 Football / Atl Madrid v Sevilla : 238.52 |
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Thats excellent Gazza ;well done. Un lucky on the job front but you seem to be doing ok on here. Ruptured achilles is nasty ; i used to have achilles probs too although never actually ruptured one.
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