FADDYSAGENIUS

Canaries v Black Cats
Carrow Road 8pm.


So whos the winner ?

Norwich Back in the EPL for first time since 2004 and have lost only 1 EPL game in the last 6 played at Carrow Road, 1-0 defeat to West Brom.
They have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 EPL games played in the month of September.
Both teams have scored in 4/5 Norwich matches this season.
Only 2 games this season have had over 2.5 goals.
They have scored the first goal in only 1 match this season.
They have conceded penalties in their first 5 games this season.
Grant Holt has committed the most fouls in the EPL this season(18).

2011-12
Played 5 Games 1 Win 2 Draws 2 Losses.
Goals For 5 Against 7.
Played 2 Home, 1-1 v Stoke and 0-1 v West Brom.


Sunderlands Away form over the last 3 seasons,57 matches is dreadful with only 10 WINS, 16 DRAWS, 31 LOSSES.
Goals for 49 Goals against 95.
But if they avoid defeat tonight it will be the longest sequence without a loss Away from Home since 1999,5 games in total.
Sunderland have kept only 4 Clean Sheets in the last 21 EPL games,but 3 of those have came Away from home.
The last 5 games between the teams have resulted in 5x 1-0 Home wins (2 Norwich 3 Sunderland).
Sunderland have not won in their last 13 Monday night EPL matches and have never won an EPL away match on a Monday night.

2011-12
Played 5 Games 1 Win 2 Draws 2 Losses.
Played 2 Away, Drawn both 1-1 at Anfield and 0-0 at Liberty Stadium.

Referee Chris Foy
Had 23 matches last season producing 3 Reds and 73 Yellows. Avg 3.3 cards per game.

CONCLUSION...
With Sunderlands poor Away form and lack of goals at home for Norwich the Stats suggest a tight affair so will recommend to Back the Draw at 3.5 Betfair MAIN BET. Back Grant Holt to be booked 3/1 at S.k.Y Bet and Back over 30pts on Bookings 5/6 at Coloured Square .

So heres hoping we get back to winning ways.After a tough week[:p].
Feel as if i won at the weekend as i avoided laying Mr Messi in hat-trick market after suffering last week.
Hope the Stats help towards selecting some winnig bets for tonight.
Follow the Blog Follow the winners[;)].
Good luck all.

Freiburg v Stuttgart...Conclusion

Freiburg 1 Stuttgart 2

Cisse 83      Harnik 32,73

Well,I will start off this weeks BLOGS with an apology folks, sorry for the selections and bets suggested and posted on the above match,after plenty of study and an accumulation of various Stats,I was still way off the mark with the final choices.

Suggested Bets : Lay Stuttgart or Back Freiburg, 2-2 3-2 C/Score, Draw HT Draw FT and Draw HT Freiburg FT.

Results : Stuttgart win, 1-2 C/Score, Stuttgart HT Stuttgart FT.

All in all it was a poor weekend as anybody who has followed my threads previously and now my Blog will know i lay a certain MR MESSI at the Nou Camp for FIRST GOALSCORER AND HAT TRICK every home game each season OUCHHH!!! [:x]

So the weekends thankfully behind me and its on to this weeks fixtures various games across Europe,with League Cup ties in England and Scotland and a full card of Serie A and Le Championnat matches.Ive pulled together some Stats for a match in midweek and will post these and suggested selections tomorrow.

So after a weekend which can only be described as feeling like ive been kicked in the balls with a divers boot,i woke this morning feeling probably just slightly better than Fernando'EL NINO'Torres who will probably be still seeing his open goal miss in Ten Years time,Ronnie Rosenthal was probably the only person,Man Utd fans aside and possibly some Liverpool fans,delighted to see the ball hit the advertising hoarding rather than the net.

On the Man Utd match what a fantastic advertisement for the EPL,the match had everything controversey with the offside goals,penalty decision, Coles tackle and the late news afterwards Rooney had been reported to the RSPCA for his attemted murder on a seagull from the Penalty Spot a la Beckham.

So folks last weeks Report Card says 'Must do better'.

Lets hope i can post the catchphrase Follow the Blog Follow the Winners[;)] later this week.
Good Luck All.

Feel free to contribute anything positive or negative if you wish,all advice,abuse and views are welcome.


 

FREIBURG VS STUTTGART...Going in early this weekend...Friday 7.30pm ESPN..

Well another weekend arrives and an early opportunity arises to make some cash.

Again I will provide some Stats on the above match to help the forum select some bets and try and dig out a few Selections myself.

Bundesliga 10/11 Stats                               
306 Matches Played
894 Goals Scored
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Bundesliga 11/12 Stats
45 Matches Played
131 Goals Scored
Over 1.5 Goals 75.6%
Over 2.5 Goals 53.3%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%

The Stats suggest the Bundesliga is consistent and running in line with last year,this helps create a better overview and assists when selecting the bets.   

Freiburg...
10/11 Stats
Played 17 Home games
Won 8 Drew 2 Lost 7.
Goals For 24 Against 24. Home matches provided 48 Goals.
91 Goals were scored in total in Freiburg games last season 40 in First Half 51 in Second Half. 
At home 12 games provided Over 2.5 Goals(71%). 5 games provided Over 3.5 Goals (31%).
Only in 2/17 games both teams failed to score.
Freiburg scored first in 8 of their Home Games (47%).
They recorded scorelines of 1-2 x3. 1-3 x3. 2-1 x3 these were the most common scores in Freiburg home games.
In last 13 matches they have won 11pts/39.
In last 19 Home matches have won 30pts/57.

11/12 Stats
Played 2 Home Games
Won 1 Drew 0 Lost 1
Every Freiburg game has resulted in Over 2.5 Goals.
At Home vs Mainz 1-2 (L), Wolfsburg 3-0 (W) and Away vs Bayern 7-0 (L), Werder 5-3 (L).

Stuttgart...
10/11 Stats
Played 17 Away Games
Won 5 Drew 4 Lost 8
119 Goals were scored in Stuttgart Games last season 53 in First Half 66 in Second Half.
Away 12 Games provided over 2.5 Goals(71%). 6 Games provided over 3.5 Goals (37%).
Only in 3/17 games both teams failed to score.
Kept only one clean sheet Away from home 1/17.
Stuttgart scored first in 7 of their away games(42%).
Stuttgart won 2-1 on 4 occasions this was their most common scoreline Away last season.
In last 13 Matches have won 21pts/39.
In last 19 Away Matches have won 20pts/57.

11/12 Stats
Played 2
Won 0 Drew 1 Lost 1
Only 3 Goals in the 2 Away matches played 1-1 vs Munchengladbach and 0-1 vs Hertha Berlin.
Both Teams have scored in only 1/5 of Stuttgarts matches.

There has been 35 goals scored in the 10 matches Freiburg(25) and Stuttgart(10) have played this season, 24 of them have been scored in the 2nd half, 11 in the first half.

CONCLUSION...
Freiburg at Home have gained 30pts/57 in last 19 matches played. 9 Won 3 Drawn 7 Lost. In 65% of HOME matches they have avoided defeat.
They have scored in 17/19 Home games.
Freiburg beat Stuttgart Home and Away last season.
     
Stuttgart have gained only 20pts/57 away in the last 19 matches. 5 Won 5 Drawn 9 Lost,this is nearly 70% of matches played AWAY that they have failed to win.
The Stats suggest Stuttgart will have to score a minimum of 2 goals to win the match.

The current Odds on Stuttgart 2.1 i believe them to be too short.

The Stats therefore have provided us with some info to help with the Bets for tonights match i recommend to
BACK Freiburg at 3.75 BETFAIR with the option to Green out if they take the lead or
LAY Stuttgart around 2.1 BETFAIR which ever people think is the best option for themselves.


Back Draw HT Freiburg FT 9.8 BETFAIR

Back Draw HT Draw FT 6.6 BETFAIR both for small stakes.

For very small stakes Back 2-2 (15.0) 3-2 (40) BETFAIR.

Well thats the Match and Bets selected.
I hope it will provide us with another winning weekend[;)]
GOOD LUCK ALL.

Real Sociedad v Barca conclusion...

Sociedad 2        Barca 2

Agirretxe 59      Xavi 10
Griezmann 61      Fabregas 12

The Stats suggested a bet of both teams to score at 2.18 Betfair this was recommended as the main bet of the weekend and obliged.

The early Xavi goal unfortunately came too early for the advised first goal minutes and also put paid to the Draw-Barca bet.

In hindsight a lay of Barca rather than the recommended back of Sociedad with a view to Green out, may have been more sensible.Although may have been slightly unlucky that Busquets never recieved a red and his marching orders,which would have given people the option to trade out then.

All in all dependant on your staking plan a profit should have been achieved with the main bet of both to score obliging.

Stats have helped achieve a profit in all matches studied.Lessser success last night but a profit still shown nevertheless.

Off i go again to trawl through the games on offer to see if any games catch my eye...
Stats Stats Stats thats the answer...maybe.[;)]

Stats Stats and more Stats.

Looked through the weekend fixtures and this game has caught my eye.
There was amazing value on Sociedad at home last season when playing the top teams in La Liga.
Sociedads home record was Won 11 Drew 2 Lost 6. 35pts gained at home and only 9pts won away.

Even so on the bare evidence the home record was nothing to write home about,UNTILyou broke down the matches individually.
Against the top 7 teams Sociedad beat (Champions): Barca 2-1 (4th): Villareal 1-0 (5th): Ath Bilbao 2-0.
Great prices were to be had on Sociedad in these matches.
Yeah very good after timer,your crazy lol why would you even think about backing Sociedad in these matches.
Well heres WHY in the other matches versus the other sides in the top seven, Sociedad again at very good odds LED against Valencia 3rd,Seville 6th and Ath Madrid 7th. Drawing at Half/time with Real before conceding in 51mins and equalising in 62mins providing an opportunity to trade out before Half Time or after equalising in 62nd min.
Sociedad led in 6 matches providing a great opportunity to back pre match and Green out at good odds during the 90mins.

So some Sociedad stats last season they scored 49 and conceded 66.
Average of 3.01 goals per game Sociedad played.
46.9% of goals in all the matches were scored in the first half and 53.1% scored in second half.
The average time of the first goal they scored was 51mins and average time of the first goal conceded was 53mins.
The most goals Sociedad scored came between 76-90mins (12) and conceded most in this same period 76-90mins (18).
Only failed to score once at home in 19 games last season v Malaga 0-2.
Both teams scored in 11 of the 19 home matches Sociedad played.

Barca Barca Barca Away Stats 2010/11

Barca Away Won 14 Drew 4 Lost 1. 46pts out of 57.
Scored 49 Conceded 11.
Average 3.1 goals per game Barca played away.
Barca scored in all 19 away games last season.
Barca led at Half Time/Full Time x10 and Draw Half Time/Won Full Time x4 last season.
Barca won 11 times on -1 goal handicap and 7 times on -2 goal handicap.
Barcas scored most goals in the 76-90min period (21) and conceded the most also between 76-90mins (5).
Both teams scored in 10 of the 19 games Barca played away.
Messi got 16 away goals and was First scorer 8 times and last goalscorer 4 times in the 19 games.
Messi scored in 11 Away matches.
Messi scored two goals x3 and scored 1 hatrick.
Pedro was second top away scorer with 8 goals. 3 first goals.

Obviously Backing in Barcas matches are frought with danger as they are the best club team on the planet and could be 4up in Twenty mins. but i will follow the Stats and see where it goes.

So conclusion drawn after taking on board the Stats and using them alongside my own opinion i would recommend to back     Both Teams to Score 2.18 Betfair or better if possible, this will be my main bet of weekend.

Sociedad at 19.5 Betfair got to jump all over this price with a view to Green out if they again take the lead.

1st Goal Time 21-30mins 9/2 31-40mins 6/1 at BET 3.6.5..

Draw/Barca 4/1 T.O.T.E Sport.

Good Luck all hope the Stats again provide us with more winners.[;)]

Very nice[:D] 3 main bets landed without much fuss 5/6 Russia -1 corner handicap, 8/11 four or more cards, 8/15 Russia to gain most corners.Stats again proved to be spot on,todays selections provide a nice win for anybody who followed.

Russia and Republic meet in Moscow in a crucial 2012 qualifier on Tuesday 6th Sept.4pm Kick off.

I have collected some stats for the match,i will use these to see if there is any bets suggested by the trends/patterns formed.

Both teams have played 6 matches in group B and stand 1st and 2nd both on 13pts.
Republic have scored 11 and conceded 6 Russia have scored 10 conceding 4.
Republic have committed 106 fouls(2nd highest in group) 10 Yellow cards 0 Reds. Russia have committed 105 fouls 14 Yellows 0 Reds.
Republic have gained 22 Corners, Avg 3.41 per match 2nd lowest in group(Andorra 17 lowest)and Russia have gained 41 corners(2nd highest) Avg 6.83 per match.

461 goals have been scored in all the qualifiers so far with 195 First half goals and 266 Second half goals.
The most goals have been scored from 76mins-90mins (83) and least 1-15mins (54).

The Ref is Istavan Vad (Hungary). Euro 2012 qualifiers 2 matches 8 Yellows 0 Reds. Champions League 2007/11 4 matches 18 Yellow 2 Reds. Europa League 2007/11 8 matches 27 Yellows  2 Reds. W Cup Qualifiers 2008/9 2 games 12 Yellows 0 Reds. Average 4.06 Yellows per match.

My conclusion after studying the Stats is to bet on the following 4 or more cards 8/11 Bet 3.6.5. I think this could be a high tempo match so recommend small bet on a Red card at 5/1 Bill Hills. Russia -1 Corner 5/6 S.K.Y Bet. Russia most Corners 8/15 Pat Power.
Good luck all[:D]

Stats are certainly not the key to success,but used in the correct way they can be a useful tool in gaining a view, an opinion and in some cases an upperhand in certain football betting markets.
I was amazed for instance Messi had only been the FIRST GOALSCORER at the Nou Camp on three occasions in each of the last 3 seasons in the league only 9 times in 57 games,he was freely available to lay at around 3.3ish in the first game of the season and sure enough Thiago netted first.I would have guessed without checking he would have been First Goalscorer in at least 20-25 games over the 3 seasons at the Nou Camp and know i have backed him blindly on numerous occasions,this stat showed there was value in laying him and also massive value in looking elsewhere for the first Goalscorer.
Of course i am not naive enough to believe all matches follow exactly to the stats associated to the teams/players taking part and of course football is a game of chance,but i think if you integrate the stats into your thinking and alongside your view on a particular match for instance you can find some value in nearly every game.
Of course there will be losses but i think using this formula there will be more wins than loses.
Over a short period of time i have posted some topics on the Football betting forum these i have included in my Favourites,i tried to utilise the stats available to me, then used these to form an opinion on the matches mentioned and placed bets accordingly.
I had previously been a gambler who bets were formed solely on my own opinion,without using any stats at all, in some cases i won and in some i lost.After monitoring for a period of time i realised i was losing not massive amounts but i was still losing. So i had a choice continue as i was or try something different i chose to put in more effort select my bets a bit more carefully and utilise the information and stats freely available to me to try and give me an edge.
I will post here in my blog and try and provide the betfair Forum with some information and stats on certain games to help you form an opinion on the game and hopefully help you get an edge on some of the markets.
Ps. Avoid my Horse tips.