Exchange Games
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If these games are fixed then it should be possible to exploit this.
If they were fixed I would assume that when there are large lays or backs by punters, betfair senses this and ensures that these bets either win or lose - whatever makes the most money. If they were 'fixed' then this must happen more often than just randomly. Therefore laying outcomes that have not had a lot of liquidity to a small sum each time should pay out more often than the odds suggest.
eg
in poker all hand are 4 to 1 to win bt hand has had over £2000 pound of transactions on it laying (someone using martingale). THose who suggest that these games are fixed are suggesting this had is going to win more often than a 4 to 1 chance. Therefore by laying a hand that has seend very little liquidity to much smaller stakes should be profitable more often than not.
Does this make sense?
Can we test this? If it doesnt work it would suggest these games arent fixed.
If they were fixed I would assume that when there are large lays or backs by punters, betfair senses this and ensures that these bets either win or lose - whatever makes the most money. If they were 'fixed' then this must happen more often than just randomly. Therefore laying outcomes that have not had a lot of liquidity to a small sum each time should pay out more often than the odds suggest.
eg
in poker all hand are 4 to 1 to win bt hand has had over £2000 pound of transactions on it laying (someone using martingale). THose who suggest that these games are fixed are suggesting this had is going to win more often than a 4 to 1 chance. Therefore by laying a hand that has seend very little liquidity to much smaller stakes should be profitable more often than not.
Does this make sense?
Can we test this? If it doesnt work it would suggest these games arent fixed.
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Replies: 22
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Diep, had the same thoughts already. Tried to back hands with low amount matched, but without any success. Also tried this in Omaha, in times with no other players (amount matched = 0). Backed the favourite several times, expected to lose (because when I'm the only one playing and I win, the market maker, Betfair or whoever, loses), but I didn't, all my bets won.
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... Tried to back hands ...
Maybe I should have layed them! |
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Great idea!! Abject failure.
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I play this games one year and get small profit .The games are not fixed 100%.Just need more time for analysis .Every day i play only one hour.And 2-3 hours take me the analysis.I play only Texas
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I bet BF is relieved that you have time constraints.
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OK can those that think exchange games give me a rough idea of how this might be so that I can work out how to take advantage of it
ie do you think bets above a certain amont are destined to lose? Please let me know your thoughts on how the games are fixed. If they are fixed in any way then it will be possible to exploit ths to small stakes for a consistant profit. |
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only analysis and always there are some loosing days...
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I lay some hand on preflop with my rules.My stake only 10 evro
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ddgsk. Thanks for that. Now I know where I've been going wrong.
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Where have all the people gone who claim these are fixed?
Is no one able to give me any sort of explanation as to how they are fixed so it can be exploited? |
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The fixed brigade just moan all the time, they have no real evidence. When asked to post examples of fixed games they all disappear.
If the games were fixed, then the simple way to do this would be to determine which selection winning would result in the largest profit for the market maker (Betfair, in the last round. This would be easier to accomplish in Holdem as it nearly always runs to the end. I don't know if BF is the only market maker, or whether there are still some independent ones. There may be some independent ones left on the more popular games like Holdem, but I doubt if anyone could be @rsed to put any money into Omaha & sidebets, as nothing is ever matched. I'm not saying they couldn't be fixed, just that they don't need to be. |
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OK so if this were the case and assuming that betfair wouldn't worry about fixing games of small stakes - just those where a large amount was wagered eg over 200 pounds then what we need to do is identify these hands.
Then we need to decide if they have been backed or laid by looking at the prices matched. Then play the opposite wager to small stakes eg 2 pounds. Can xgames be set up to run this scenario? |
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...very unlikely, thats very noticable...we all looking for any pattern, that could be turn into profit...on the end is all matematic formula where you can find continuity...or difference...
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Diep, in the last few days I observed in Texas Hold'em that very often hands lost with obviously big LAYS on them. According to the fixed theory, these hands should have won (when e.g. I lay 1,000 @ 4.98 and the hand wins, I lose 3,980, market maker gets it), but they didn't. I then tried to follow these big backs or lays, with limited success. I won some bets and lost some others. That's it. This looks very random to me.
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Diep, in the last few days I observed in Texas Hold'em that very often hands lost with obviously big LAYS on them
It looked to me as if someone was chasing losses! |
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Anyone got a model for the Exhange Virtual Racing in Sports?
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I think Airfix do one.
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nz bot, are you sure the hands were being layed by punters and not backed?
Do you think the hands won more than the expected chance alone? If you are right then it blows holes in those that are saying these games are ixed. They just happened to bet big when their hand lost. If they were fixed, those of us with small consistant non chasing bets would be able to exploit it. I sort of hoped these games were fixed as that is the only way I can see making any sort of money on a regular basis! |
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are you sure the hands were being layed by punters and not backed?
Yes, because the amount of money went down on the lay side while remaining unchanged on the back side! Do you think the hands won more than the expected chance alone? Hmmm... can't say this. I have seen hands with bigger backs/lays on them winning and losing. Everything looks very random to me. |
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Betfair seed the markets with their own money. Punters can still offer their own bets, but Betfair have rigged it so they always beat punters in terms of queue position.
So in short, no you can't make money this way. |
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They don't need to**the exchange games, they make money no matter what. Like a casino does.
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yes a multi million pound company would risk its licence to**some silly virtual game.......
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