Darts
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Thought I'd get this up early and keep all 4 matches in one thread despite them being over 2 days. Last few days have gone well and hoping it continues towards the later stages as well. Now playing the best of 9 and I think the bookies are trying to screw us a bit especially on markets such as the high check. In previous years the QF line was always over/under 136.5 but this year it's now 140.5 which is usually for the SF. Quite sneaky I think and might result in people backing unders.
Michael Van Gerwen v Robert Thornton:
R3 - MVG bt Terry Jenkins 4-1
Ave: 99.62
180's: 3
HC: 128
CO%: 56%
Thornton bt Benito Van De Pas 4-0
Ave: 96.5
180's: 4
HC: 156
CO%: 35%
Opening quarter final sees the defending champ take on Robert Thornton for a place in the semis. MVG is winning quite comfortably but it's been a bit of a change from his usual MO. He's now finishing really well but not scoring as many 180's as previously and the question is can he keep that going? He takes on Thornton who is the only player left who hasn't dropped a set and he has been pretty impressive to date without ever being under any real pressure. If he finishes at above 40% he can make a match of this but under pressure I'm never that convinced by him. Looked at this match over and over and honestly can't see a bet from the outset. I fancy there might be a high check or 2 but at over 141 I think it's just too high a line for a best of 9.
Recommendation: No Bet
Gary Anderson v Peter Wright:
R3 - Anderson bt Cristo Reyes 4-1
Ave: 104.54
180's: 8
HC: 124
CO%: 43%
Wright bt Andy Hamilton 4-0
Ave: 102.6
180's: 5
HC: 104
CO%: 50%
2nd game tomorrow looks like the tie of the round for me between 2 seriously in form players. Anderson in the last 2 rounds has been awesome and every part of his game appears to be in good order. He is playing as well if not better than when he last reached the final here and right now I sense he has belief that this is his time. Wright on the other hand has gone along quietly but has been extremely impressive in reaching this stage. He demolished Hamilton and as is his game he scored well but took out the important finishes that really hurt opponents. I can see this being an extremely close match with lots of legs and as such I like the look of Anderson's maxes again. At the moment he has hit 25 in 56 legs which is 1 every 2.24 legs. In order to reach the line we need 25 legs and I think this is more than achievable. As a result I'm going to have a go at Gary being able to hit the necessary number.
Recommendation: 3pts win Gary Anderson over 10.5 maxes @ 6/5 (365)
Phil Taylor v Vincent Van Der Voort:
R3 - Taylor bt Kim Huybrechts 4-3
Ave: 102.52
180's: 4
HC: 96
CO%: 43%
VDV bt Dean Winstanley 4-2
Ave: 93.9
180's: 3
HC: 97
CO%: 38%
3rd quarter final takes place on Friday evening and it's one that Phil Taylor will be very happy with. With all due respect to Vincent I'm sure Phil is very confident of reaching yet another semi final as Vince has never been past this stage and may freeze. Taylor has averaged over 100 in all 3 games to date and came through a real test in the last match v Huybrechts. Eventually when push came to shove though he won the 7th set 3-0. I'm not convinced by him changing darts but I think he'd need to underperform to lose this match. VDV has had a great run and the prizemoney earned will give him another boost up the world rankings. However I would question if he has the belief to beat Phil that I think some other players do possess. Going to have a small bet on Phil to cover the handicap here as I think this could be a comfy 5-1 win.
Recommendation: 1pt win Phil Taylor -3.5 sets @ 8/11 (Sky)
Raymond Van Barneveld v Stephen Bunting:
R3 - Barney bt Adrian Lewis 4-3
Ave: 92.23
180's: 3
HC: 104
CO%: 38%
Bunting bt Michael Smith 4-2
Ave: 102.34
180's: 8
HC: 90
CO%: 39%
Final match of the round sees 5 times champ Barney take on the current BDO champ Stephen Bunting. I posted on the match thread last night that when Barney won v Lewis I think it was one of the most baffling results I'd ever watched. He never seemed to be in the match, was constantly outscored but for once actually dug in and took his chances when Lewis missed doubles. However bar his towelling in the R1 match he's not showed anything like the form needed to win this event. Bunting saved his best form for his win over Smith where he averaged over 100 and played really nicely. He's going to be very confident of another win here as if he gets on top of Barney and doesn't miss doubles then I think he will reach the semis. However the price on him to do so looks right to me as he can throw in the occasional stinker from out of nowhere. I was also tempted by Bunting maxes here but I think at times his darts are going in at funny angles and forcing him to switch. Based on current stats he's hitting a max every 3.27 legs so needs 33 legs to cover the spread and I think it will be touch and go if this happens.
Recommendation: No Bet
Summary: I've had a confident bet on Subtitles to cover his max line and a small bet on Phil to cover the handicap line on Friday. Best of luck to all and feel free to share any bets I might have missed. Best wishes for the New Year to all on here too and may all your bets be winners.
HH
Michael Van Gerwen v Robert Thornton:
R3 - MVG bt Terry Jenkins 4-1
Ave: 99.62
180's: 3
HC: 128
CO%: 56%
Thornton bt Benito Van De Pas 4-0
Ave: 96.5
180's: 4
HC: 156
CO%: 35%
Opening quarter final sees the defending champ take on Robert Thornton for a place in the semis. MVG is winning quite comfortably but it's been a bit of a change from his usual MO. He's now finishing really well but not scoring as many 180's as previously and the question is can he keep that going? He takes on Thornton who is the only player left who hasn't dropped a set and he has been pretty impressive to date without ever being under any real pressure. If he finishes at above 40% he can make a match of this but under pressure I'm never that convinced by him. Looked at this match over and over and honestly can't see a bet from the outset. I fancy there might be a high check or 2 but at over 141 I think it's just too high a line for a best of 9.
Recommendation: No Bet
Gary Anderson v Peter Wright:
R3 - Anderson bt Cristo Reyes 4-1
Ave: 104.54
180's: 8
HC: 124
CO%: 43%
Wright bt Andy Hamilton 4-0
Ave: 102.6
180's: 5
HC: 104
CO%: 50%
2nd game tomorrow looks like the tie of the round for me between 2 seriously in form players. Anderson in the last 2 rounds has been awesome and every part of his game appears to be in good order. He is playing as well if not better than when he last reached the final here and right now I sense he has belief that this is his time. Wright on the other hand has gone along quietly but has been extremely impressive in reaching this stage. He demolished Hamilton and as is his game he scored well but took out the important finishes that really hurt opponents. I can see this being an extremely close match with lots of legs and as such I like the look of Anderson's maxes again. At the moment he has hit 25 in 56 legs which is 1 every 2.24 legs. In order to reach the line we need 25 legs and I think this is more than achievable. As a result I'm going to have a go at Gary being able to hit the necessary number.
Recommendation: 3pts win Gary Anderson over 10.5 maxes @ 6/5 (365)
Phil Taylor v Vincent Van Der Voort:
R3 - Taylor bt Kim Huybrechts 4-3
Ave: 102.52
180's: 4
HC: 96
CO%: 43%
VDV bt Dean Winstanley 4-2
Ave: 93.9
180's: 3
HC: 97
CO%: 38%
3rd quarter final takes place on Friday evening and it's one that Phil Taylor will be very happy with. With all due respect to Vincent I'm sure Phil is very confident of reaching yet another semi final as Vince has never been past this stage and may freeze. Taylor has averaged over 100 in all 3 games to date and came through a real test in the last match v Huybrechts. Eventually when push came to shove though he won the 7th set 3-0. I'm not convinced by him changing darts but I think he'd need to underperform to lose this match. VDV has had a great run and the prizemoney earned will give him another boost up the world rankings. However I would question if he has the belief to beat Phil that I think some other players do possess. Going to have a small bet on Phil to cover the handicap here as I think this could be a comfy 5-1 win.
Recommendation: 1pt win Phil Taylor -3.5 sets @ 8/11 (Sky)
Raymond Van Barneveld v Stephen Bunting:
R3 - Barney bt Adrian Lewis 4-3
Ave: 92.23
180's: 3
HC: 104
CO%: 38%
Bunting bt Michael Smith 4-2
Ave: 102.34
180's: 8
HC: 90
CO%: 39%
Final match of the round sees 5 times champ Barney take on the current BDO champ Stephen Bunting. I posted on the match thread last night that when Barney won v Lewis I think it was one of the most baffling results I'd ever watched. He never seemed to be in the match, was constantly outscored but for once actually dug in and took his chances when Lewis missed doubles. However bar his towelling in the R1 match he's not showed anything like the form needed to win this event. Bunting saved his best form for his win over Smith where he averaged over 100 and played really nicely. He's going to be very confident of another win here as if he gets on top of Barney and doesn't miss doubles then I think he will reach the semis. However the price on him to do so looks right to me as he can throw in the occasional stinker from out of nowhere. I was also tempted by Bunting maxes here but I think at times his darts are going in at funny angles and forcing him to switch. Based on current stats he's hitting a max every 3.27 legs so needs 33 legs to cover the spread and I think it will be touch and go if this happens.
Recommendation: No Bet
Summary: I've had a confident bet on Subtitles to cover his max line and a small bet on Phil to cover the handicap line on Friday. Best of luck to all and feel free to share any bets I might have missed. Best wishes for the New Year to all on here too and may all your bets be winners.
HH
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Replies: 2,062
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Got a couple of fancies for horses tomorrow too so will put them up tomorrow
I also had a tenner on a special earlier for the cheltenham festival on Betfair Sportsbook. Lizzie Kelly is 33/1 to ride a winner and given I think she'd have 2-3 rides in handicaps and maybe even the bumper its just a little too big. |
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I think the best bet of the day is Evens under 17.5 180's MVG v The Thorn with PP who also have a MBS if the final checkout is over 100.
Neither has shown consistent pounding of the lipstick and I think this is priced up more on reputation. I think Thorn will freeze and MVG wins 5-1, 5-2. Even in a close match I think the line is a bit ambitious. Considering the line is 16.5 Anderson v Wright who are hitting more 180's and it's likely to be a tight match is a no brainer for me. Not sure about Taylor as he seems to be throwing away a lot of sets - he averaged 78 in one against Huybrechts. He is able to raise his game when really needed and VDV is flaky at best but not so sure VDV can't sneak two sets. However, when VDV is getting trousered he throws abysmal arrers and I expect Taylor to get the most 180's @ around 11/10 as seems to be switching a little less. The high lines on max checkout and 180's means I think most things are priced as I would expect so am struggling to find a decent opportunity. NAP - MVG - less than 17.5 180's Evs NB - Taylor most 180's @ 11/10 |
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Fair shout Charwell I almost bet under 10.5 MVG maxes for the same reason. My only worry is he could go crackers but it's not looked that likely
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Quick couple of horse bets today too in case anybody is interested. Fancy 2 horses pretty strongly today and one is a fairly decent price too so chance of a fair return.
First horse is in the first at Cheltenham (12.10) called Zeroshadesofgrey. This horse could not have been more impressive in its 3 runs so far absolutely hacking up twice at Uttoxeter and once at Doncaster. It's up in grade today and steps back from 3m to 2m5f but it isn't short of pace. It's main rival is Different Gravey of Nicky Henderson's who I backed when it won LTO but the market leader in that race lost about 15l at the start and I am not convinced it was that strong a race anyway. Zero may have to improve but sometimes you see a horse in the north that screams machine and I honestly believe this horse has a tremendous engine. 5/2 general price and my day will be good or bad by 12.20 I'd imagine 2nd bet is at my local track in the 2.10 called Hawk High. I've been pricewised but hey ho I still think 7/1 is a great EW bet. I backed this horse when it won the Fred Winter at 33/1 last March and I thought then it might be worth following. It won first time up at Aintree pretty well and was then stepped up in grade to run against the 2nd fav for the champion hurdle. It ran well until into the straight but the grade and really testing ground eventually took it's toll. Today I think it will get the strong pace it likes and they have got Richie Mclernon to ride who I really like on horses who need put to sleep early. Races off a mark of 146 today and I think it might still have a bit of wiggle room off that mark. Fisher is a big danger for me but I really don't think this will be out of the frame and 7/1 is hopefully an EW bet to nothing I've had a few feel bets too and think Shakalakaboomboom might got well in the 12.45 at Cheltenham at 14/1 too but the 2 above are my main focus today HH |
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Happy New Year, darts fans!
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That was a disappointing start but stake back at 1.65 at least. Went as low as 1.5 but just got done for toe.
Step back to 3m I think |
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Place landed disappointing though clattered the last and the ground completely turned against it
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The high rollers will be out in force tonight. Those lucky enough to get on with decent stakes will no doubt pile into Ando getting most 180's v Wright @ 3/10.
MVG +120* v +660* Thornton MVG is yet to convince me his form will be good enough to retain the trophy. I for one won't be writing Thornton off. He's had a cracking worlds and his form shows no sign of slowing up. I fancy him to cover the spread in his own right, and if MVG produces a top performance with a sequence of mind blowing legs then the selection will cop quite comfortably. Thorn - Over 118.5 c/o @ 5/6 hills 1.2pts Thorn Average - Over 95.5 @ 4/5 hills 3pts Ando +45* v -33* Wright Wright's been solid in all of his matches so far and if ever there was a match to represent value this is it. Not a lot in it on the stats and of the two i'd sooner be on Wright when it comes down to doubles. The downside is a snakebite win would spell near disaster for my tourney 180's bets, plus my small interest on Ando in the outrights. 2/1 for Wright to win the match looks a knocking price and a sure fire trade for bf layers. I've come to a compromise and backed Wright on the h'cap. Wright +2.5 sets h'cap @ 4/6 vic 1.5pts Taylor -33* v -33* Vincent Taylor needs to beat 5 opponents to reach another final - Artut, Mark Webster, Kim, Vincent, Bunting Or Barneveld. They're hardly the toughest opposition, and the pdc is meant to be the strongest it has ever been?? Only one bet for me as Taylor can be trusted to put his foot down and show no mercy in steamrolling another player with the true ruthless style of a driven winning champion. Taylor Average - Over 101.5 @ 5/6 hills 3pts Bunting -33* v -33* Barneveld Is Barney the 2015 Kirk Shepherd? Bunting's improving with each round and and the added pressure of beating Wade to further cement his chance of a Premier League place must have been huge. Though Wade's performance was lack lustre, it's fair to say Bunting thoroughly deserved the win. Bunting saw off former BDO World Champ in Steve Beaton and i see no reason why he won't see off the former 4 times BDO World Champ Barney too. The Bullet is on the march. Bunting to win @ 8/13 sporting 1.3pts BF Outrights* |
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Watching Taylor v Painter 2004 PDC Final.
The thudding sound of each and every dart is annoying and something the pdc have long since done away with. Watching this is a timely reminder of what's to come @ Lakeside tomorrow and how the BDO forever stagnate and remain in a distant past.  |
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Taylor v Lowe - I forgot just how amazing this match was.
Taylor winning the matchplay semi final 17-15 (legs) in what was Lowebo's last great stand.  |
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Happy New Year darts forumites. With Lewis going out I'm feeling a little flat as I really thought he had a great chance this year. In fact he did have a great chance bit blew it
Tonight, as well as Thornton has played, I cant see past MVG. He's slowly picking up and I think we may see him nearly back to his best tonight. This could easily be 5-1 or 5-2. I'm really looking forward to the last match tonight. Should be a fantastic tussle with a lot of trading opportunities. I don't have an opinion which way it will go so will hopefully just enjoy. Looking forward to the usual banter on here, GL all. |
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Happy New Year to you all.
Looking forward to what will possibly be the greatest all-Scotland match ever in a World Darts event. Hopefully it will finally take away the stench of the Lakeside 2006 clash that involved one of tonight's participants. |
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not had an outright winner bet until today but I have a feeling thorntons a little overpriced at 80s, not droppe asset so far, he can be brilliant now and again, ok hes a bit flaky in a tight finish and not totally consistant but you don't get everything at 80s. just moderate bet(dnt need to lay out the crown jewels to land a touch)
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Just subscribed to BT partly because they've got a lot of football coming up and partly cos they have shared coverage of the Lakeside
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BT Sport is excellent.
record the crazy gang documentary charting the rise of Wimbledon at 9.00 on BT1. It is a great watch and a superb soundtrack |
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Cheers Aberdonia read a bit about it Terry Gibson said a lot of it about how they were all controlled by Fash n Jones was total nonsense tho
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Fash does not come across well in the documentary imo.
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1 bet peter right 2/1 .
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Fash a bit of a tool on the TV
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Wright
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not betting but wright price does look better of the 2
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Following charwell with -17.5 180's in MVG/THORTON match at EVENS......................
GL with your bets............................. |
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agree, prices dont reflect their chances as they are both playing to the same standard.
would still favour Anderson to come through though, although not confident that, that will happen. |
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Peter Wright seems highly rated for someone who has won very little. I can't take to him at all, but, I've been impressed with his play thus far. I still have a question mark beside him regarding winning the tourney.
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Iv followed charwells bet to. Fancy ando but wrights price could be good for a trade really fancy ando to win this now
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Don't like Thornton. Can't put my finger on it. Maybe it's the moaning & head shaking. Perhaps he just comes across as an unlike able chav.
The other three on tonight seem much more personable. |
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C'mon the thorn
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chance to break here...
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Thornton started like a train on the lip stick here
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YES! Overs landed in the opening leg.
 140 100 140 121 out Thorn in 12 darts to break |
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Keep those high scores coming chaps
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Perfect for the Overs...
wow mvg... |
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Mikey flying here early
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MVG in the zone already
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180S SCORE/
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close up on thornton...is he wearing make up/face powder?
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3-0 MVG Howdi
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GENTS MISSED 180S WHATS 180 SCORE
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where's hh with 180 updates?
3-0 mvg 180's |