Stage 9

Surprising to learn that Chambery will host the finish for the first time in the Tour.

A total of seven categorized climbs throughout the 182km-long stage, including three rated as HC of which the Colombier is one. The final climb is the Mont du Chat, also rated as HC, and likely to be the staging point for a GC battle. This is arguably the queen stage of this Tour, and I say that because of the difficulty of the stage and the fact that the GC is so finely balanced.

Froome didn't really get the relatively easy ride he would've wanted on stage 8 yesterday, since today is such a tough stage and he, like the GC me, would've wanted to be relatively fresh. Things were quite hectic throughout the stage, and whilst for the most part SKY were dictating terms of the peloton, the average speed for the first hour was around 46km/h, which is very fast on account of their being some climbing involved.

The last thing Froome would've wanted was an attack by Dan Martin yesterday, and even though the rider from IRE did attack close to the line out of the GC group, it was only small and the intensity was not there like it would have been had the race been all together. Moreover, there were no gaps on the line to Froome from the 9 riders on the VL GC, which excludes G, so whilst it could've been harder it wasn't a day off by any stretch of the imagination.

As some readers of the cycling forum might recall, and I mentioned this on the Dauphine thread, the descent off the back of the final HC climb, the Mont du Chat, used in stage 6 of the Dauphine prior, would be used for this stage and it would therefore loom large. I still stand behind that statement, although I would seek to now moderate it a bit on account of looking closer at the finish.

The climb itself is a brutal 8.7kms @ 10.3% with 14% and 15% ramps in the middle.

What we learned from the Dauphine was, 1.) That Porte has a fundamental weakness descending and, 2.) That Froome has taken the superlative descending we saw from him, when he attacked off the Col de Peyresourde in stage 8 last year (and when he effectively laid the groundwork for his win on GC with 16secs banked) to a level which can now be considered a great strength, another weapon in his arsenal, if you will.

This descent is a technical and serious descent with a lot of blind bends, no doubt. In the Dauphine, Froome closed down on Aru, who was in the lead whilst keeping a nice gap to Fuglsang and Porte, however eventually Froome cleared out by himself on the lower bends, gapping these four riders chasing.

Now, if the finish was to have been found at the bottom of the descent then Froome would've won, and the same goes for this stage -- if the finish is at the bottom then Froome is the favourite to win, no doubt, odds-on even, however once Froome reached the bottom in the Dauphine with some 4kms to-go and then the flat section, he was caught by all four chasing riders in no time, and on this occasion the finish is even more complex as it's longer at 13.5kms and has a short ramp coming just after the descent to really hurt the riders.

This suggests that, unlike the stage 8 into Bagneres-de-Luchon last year, which had only a 2km flat section to the finish line, Froome is highly unlikely to hold any sort of gap created on the descent and the chasers/race wil likely come back to him, making the likelihood of a Froome win reliant on riders involved in the sprint having a weaker kick than him. In the 4-up Dauphine sprint for instance, he finished in 3rd-place, getting beat by Fuglsang and Porte, and only beating the ungainly Aru.

It is very difficult to solve the likely situation on the road. Froome is no value at ante-post, but I see that with the strength of his team he is a legitimate favourite. I think he needs teammates or allies after the descent because a chasing group, if combining together nicely, are likely to bring him back on the flat approach to the finish.

Here we go , a day of non stop brutal climbs and action from the contenders .......or they mark each other until about 4 pm and we get attacks (not 30 second pointless exercises) 3k from the top of the last climb.

I know which my money is on.

Gap still going up, it will continue to do so up until the final climb, I think. The SKY will begin to ramp up the pace and the gap will begin to come down Haven't worked out what's what in terms of the gap size required by the breakaway riders to hold it to the finish. It is a very complex question, because of the descent and the flat run-in and also the potential of wet roads might have a big impact.

SKY are closing the course from the pics I'm seeing. This is looking good for the breakaway, but still a long way to-go. Not calling it as yet, but good signs for break.

G is down!

Pinot might be lacking in confidence on the descents, he has had crashes in the past. But will likely bridge a gap on the flat valley road.

Sorry -- I meant ALM not FDJ.

It was just a test, but now SKY know what to expect for the final climb off the back of the Mont du Chat. They're setting the pace on the front now whilst climbing too, suggests they are on good sensations with Bardet, and they have the two satellite riders up front. Wow! This could be the French Revolution if it comes off!

ALM still working on the front of the GC group, they are setting a stronger pace than SKY did before, gap inching down as a result. In favour of a stalemate, presently -- too close to call!

Surprised that Pentane has cracked so badly here, he beat Majka in that stage 5 into Culoz last year.

Benoot a GC development rider indeed, this is all experience for him, very good plan by LTS to have put this into effect today. Will be very interesting to see how he goes.

G

The breakaway is back together on the descent as expected -- five riders are better than two -- they'll need to work together on the flat valley road if they want any chance of stage victory.

What happened to Pinaut

Weather radar looking good for no rain for the riders, but not a certainty, yet.

Gap down to 5mins -- it's with the GC peloton I think, especially if SKY blow it up!

Moreover, I cannot believe that SKY will ride tempo on the Mont du Chat, they'll want to give the GC rivals a hard ride and see where they are. Tough to call still, but it is going with the GC, I think.

Small ew Nairo in running