Team | Worst | Best | Projected |
BMC | Evens | 5/4 | 4/5 |
EQS | 11/4 | 4/1 | 11/4 |
OGE | 5/2 | 4/1 | 5/1 |
MOV | 6/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 |
TCS | 14/1 | 20/1 | 10/1 |
AST | 20/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 |
SKY | 28/1 | 50/1 | 66/1 |
TGA | 28/1 | 66/1 | 40/1 |
TLJ | 25/1 | 66/1 | 33/1 |
IAM | 40/1 | 80/1 | 100/1 |
TFR | 30/1 | 80/1 | 80/1 |
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I've backed Orica at 6.6 and laid BMC at just over 11/10 average. I have it between the top 3 as well, but it is a shorter & easier course than previous editions and this could also bring some other strong teams into it.
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Is there any start order advantage, presently?
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RR Course: The 2007 US Open of Cycling was a classic-style race from Williamsburg to Richmond covering some 180 kms, however what makes it most interesting is that the peloton covered eight circuits of the same cobbled climb in Libby Hill Park which will be the first of the three climbs to the finish in the Road Race on this occasion, coming as will at about 4kms to go. Very much like the Hellingen of Flanders, and with some half-a-dozen turns, I would suggest that there will be selections by the classics riders, and that it is highly unlikely that it comes back together for a bunch sprint.
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Could suit someone like Boonen then?
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Whilst I like the look of EQS and their harmony appears good, and they appear to be the best value, I cannot go past BMC for their TTT defence. They have four of the same riders from last year, and they only require four to get over the line together. As an OGE countryman I always look at OGE closely and am the first to convince myself of their strength, however I don't like OGE here at all, they look quite weak even though Hepburn is starting, I'm not sure Bewley can blow himself up for the team like earlier in the year I believe, and if they hadn't gone on the drift I would have laid them, considerably. Bit too expensive now, and if they're angry they may get close, so not willing to risk it or pull my hair out trading.
BMC should be in it for a long way. Plus, they ride the best bikes. Good luck to all, SP |
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It could suit Boonen, would never discount a former WC over this type of course, but I think it might prove to be one for an Ardennes classics rider, more -- but still waiting for better prices with the Books and also to get matched for my five selections, on here. I mean, Boonen versus Gilbert over this course, both WCs, and what with the technical nature, such a straight-out, head-to-head match-up has to go with Gilbert doesn't it?
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Great GPS sectionals from the host broadcaster -- this is the type of thing we need in the WT races.
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Looks like you're right about Orica - Bewley out the back door - BMC and Etixx looking the two still in it
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Can BMC do that final climb as well as Etixx did?
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Better than the final three to go out, over the entire course, a proper BMC destruction job!
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I note you said "someone like Boonen" MC, and Svein Tuft won that race in 2007, and he is certainly more Boonen than Gilbert.
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I had doubts whether Phinney would be fit enough for that and whether Dillier and Kueng would be able to last the pace at the tail end of the season at their age but they just smashed it to pieces. Brilliant ride by Dennis as well.
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End of TTT:
1.) BMC 2.) EQS 3.) MOV 4.) OGE 5.) TGA |
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Massive failure by OGE -- thought they would have had the podium, at least.
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Small bet on Brennauer today, looking for an each way bet as well. Possibly Stevens 33/1.
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Good luck MC -- no bets for me -- I don't trust the women!
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Been looking at this after watching the U23's yesterday and nothing jumps out at me pre-off.
Juniors streamed anywhere? |
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http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/article/2015/07/29/upcoming-cycling-sbs
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Geoblocked. In UK we get U23 men and elites but the rest doesn't seem to be available anywhere.
In Ponferradina the whole thing was streamed by the UCI, guessing that's not the case this time. |
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Would be tempted by Tara Whitten to pick up the early lead, but no liquidity in the market so wouldn't be able to get out.
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Armstrong doing an Armstrong.
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UCI is streaming live, but they got some crazy deals going that people in Canada and the USA are even blocked. They have a schedule and geo-block link, but the page cannot be found, which is kind of convenient. Anyway: http://t.co/6VbAKB4szS
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Looks like the conditions are going to be ok for the late riders
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Brennauer 6th
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Great ride by Villumsen
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3rd brennauer :(
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My word. I never knew Villumsen was in a relationship with Emma Trott.
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2015 » World Championships - Road Race (WC)
Classic » Richmond › Richmond (259.2k) Map Profile Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163330&c=3 Market http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/road-world-championships/mens-road-race/winner Coverage of this race starts in the UK from 2pm on Eurosport 2. However, the race is 260km long and being as it is 16 laps of a 16.2km circuit, even the most enthusiastic fans would have to admit that this could be a little on the dull side for the first few hours, resembling a city criterium. The course itself looks fairly interesting. It has some cobbled sections, and has three short steep climbs back-loaded into the final 4km. It also has some fast descents and plenty of sharp turns. The nature of this course will make it difficult to control the race as it speeds up. There are 22 turns in total, including several 90 degree turns and two hairpins. In total, that makes 365 turns. The constant changes of pace and the length of this course will mean that energy conservation will be crucial and positioning will be all-important as the late attacks begin. Those with a vested interest in bringing the race back together will have their work cut out on the final section. Those three climbs in the final 4km will also make it harder for the sprinters. The first is a winding ascent through Libby Hill Park. This is a cobbled climb and although I don't think this is the Koppenberg exactly, it will make it harder for the riders who aren't cobbled specialists or even climbers. As far as I can make out, this climb is about 200m long. There is then a descent before the climb of 23rd Street. This has been resurfaced, but is said to be upto 19% and 110m long. Even a short climb like this could be enough to distance the sprinters taken a number of times at pace. There is then another descent with some sharp corners that will make it hard for dropped riders to re-engage, before a longer (300m or so) final climb up Govenor Street. We already know this climb from the TTT and the tough false flat that follows it. How will it play out There are as always number of interesting questions to consider when finding the winners of the worlds. 1) What can the host nation produce? BMC have already won the TTT and although the American team do not seem to have a natural contender, having the rainbow jersey riding for an American team in 2016 would be massive from a commercial point of view so riders in BMC or Garmin’s roster for next year have to be given a second look. 2) How will trade team alliances cross over with national team colours? We saw in 2013 that Valverde could not chase Rodriguez (national team mate) and Rui Costa (trade team mate) and drag Nibali back in to contention even though he might have been a likelier winner considering the flat finish, and in the end Rui Costa took the win. 3) Do sprinters take this? A sprint of some sort is considered very likely by the books. Kristoff and Sagan are joint favourites, with Bling and Degenkolb next in the market. These are all sprinters who are renowned for being able to get over climbs and (certainly in the case of Kristoff, Sagan and Degenkolb) ability on the cobbles. These are all proven classics specialists. Kristoff has not been in the best of form in recent months, and he only has 5 team mates, although if it does come to a sprint Boassen-Hagen should be able to provide a superb leadout. Sagan has been in fantastic form this year, getting stronger as the year has gone on. Crashing out of the Vuelta could well prove an advantage in terms of having time to prepare and although he is used to working solo, he might find it hard marking all the late moves by himself. I wonder whether any Tinkoff men in the field might give Sagan a hand? I think both these two are serious dangers but at the price I am happy to let them win without my cash on. John Degenkolb is slightly different, he is a serious threat with a very strong team. Germany look to have an excellent combination of support men and leadout. Even the Gorilla was practicing his leadout role in the Tour of Britain. Degenkolb will be Germany's captain unless it ends in an unlikely blanket bunch sprint and then Greipel will be plan B. 12/1 is a very fair price for Degenkolb in my eyes. The other interesting fast man is Bling Matthews. Again, he has full team support from Australia following Gerrans' difficult year. The Aussies have a very strong team as well, and they are very astute tactical riders that know how to exploit in-race situations and when they put a plan together they rarely come up short. This has been Matthews' goal for the whole year, and I think he should be on the premises. I don't think this course favours a sprint. I think the course itself will be fairly selective. The climbs are tough, but more of a problem will be the constant changes of direction, but the cobbles, the descents and the cobbles will also make things hard. The bunch will naturally thin out, at times we will see riders taking corners in single file. The constantly changing nature of this course will mean that it will be hard to organise a chase and sole attackers can use this to their advantage. I think one day specialists are the way to go here. Of course, Degenkolb, Sagan and Kristoff are proven in the classics in races like this, but I do think they may be vulnerable to late attacks on the climbs from riders like Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Stybar, Valverde, Terpstra and Boonen. Poland have the defending champion in Michal Kwiatowski. The course looks like it should suit so much that I think he would be approaching favouritism if his form this year wasn't so sketchy. Since his Amstel Gold win in April he has shown almost nothing, although he did finish among the lead groups in Quebec and Montreal, which will give his supporters some crumbs of comfort. Belgium have a phenomenal squad. They have three leaders in Gilbert, Van Avermaet and Boonen. Their support squad is stupidly talented. Benoot, Vanmarcke and Vandenbergh would be team captains in most teams. The one issue you wonder about is whether they have too many cards to play? That could be an issue, but it also might work the other way. Gilbert could attack on the last climb allowing one of his team mates to sit on and take the win. Gilbert and Boonen have both won the Rainbow Jersey previously, it will be interesting to see if one of them can do it again or if Van Avermaet can join them. He has been getting closer and closer in the classics, but has never won one yet. Spain also have a strong squad, with Rodriguez, Valverde and maybe also Sanchez or Lobato as options. I think that this course suits Lobato best of all, but I think Spain will ride for Rodriguez and like in 2013 they will fall short. I'd like to see Great Britain ride for Luke Rowe. He's a strong rider who can thrive on cobbles and has a fast finish. I think Rowe will have to wait for his breakthrough though and the rest of the team are either not suited to this course, over-raced or just not good enough, and this won't be a winning year for GB. Italy have loads of possibilities. Viviani is a confident sprinter who has shown excellent recent form and has prepared and trained specifically for this race. I wonder whether he will get the support of his team though as they have plenty of other options. Nibali has been in great recent form and will surely try a late attack on the climbs. Diego Ulissi is a punchy rider that could win from a small group if the sprinters are dropped. He won a stage of the Giro that was a very similar finish to this course, and recently won the Marco Pantani and had a 5th in Quebec. The Italians have a strong team of domestiques and also have a couple of potential alternative weapons in riders like Oss and Trentin. France have Bouhanni and Demare as options in a sprint but it could be Gallopin and Alaphilippe that are more suited to this course. If Gallopin escapes he could be a tricky man to pull back, and Alaphilippe showed he can feature prominently in long, big field classics with tough finishes this spring. Holland are another team with a very strong team. Eyes will be on Tom Dumoulin, and whilst this course could suit him, he is also concentrating on the ITT, and Niki Terpstra will be the team leader. Colombia have got a decent team, but they would surely have preferred more climbing. Rigoberto Uran, who moving to Garmin and is in great form after winning in Quebec, is probably their best option. Riders that could be suited to the course from other teams include Navardauskas of Lithuania, Rui Costa of Portugal and Albasini of Switzerland. All three have shown that they can follow the right moves and win from small groups so cannot be discounted despite a lack of team mates. Indeed, Rui Costa himself showed that it doesn't have to prevent you winning this race in 2013. Who wins? There are a number of ways this race can pan out, but I'm looking for someone that can win solo or from a small group. I think this course could set up nicely for my main bet Niki Terpstra who won't mind the length, climbs or cobbles. He showed he was in superb form during the TTT, and has a very strong team behind him. The 2014 Paris Roubaix winner had a superb classics season without getting on to the top step. He won his national championships for the 3rd time this year, and he can make up for exclusion from last year's team by getting his hands on the rainbow jersey this time. 40/1 is a superb price and I've taken the 4 places. I've also backed Greg Van Avermaet. I think he has got nearer and nearer to winning a big one and although I'd have liked a bigger price than 16/1 (4 places) I think he has a great shout in a race like this, he would be a brilliant result for the Americans riding as he does for BMC. I was a little torn between Gilbert and GVA but in the end I My third pick is Julian Alaphillipe. I was torn between him and Gallopin but I think that at 50/1 Alaphillipe has all the hallmarks of being a potential great and his 2nd places in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Fleche Wallonne read well on a course like this. Lastly, I have backed Bling Matthews. I have taken 14/1 about Bling without worrying about 4 places. He has a strong team that he leads, he could even possibly count on support from other riders, he will have no problems on the climbs and he has prepared for this all year. **Terpstra 40/1 (4 places) *Van Avermaet 16/1 (4 places) *Bling 14/1 1/2pt Alaphilippe 50/1 (4 places) Good luck everyone |
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Taken Dennis for today's ITT.
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Libby Hill Park climb is significantly longer than 200m, it is 700m at 4.8%, whilst the Koppenberg is 600m at 11.6% and it's fairly straight in comparison, for what will hurt the peloton most here, are the four main twisting turns which on the cobbles impedes even an expert rider's momentum. I mean, even the Paterberg is a straight climb, but by the top turn it absolutely destroys most riders. The North 23rd Street climb is much shorter but a lot steeper, about 250m at 10.8%. Finally, the Governor's climb starts before they make the right hand turn, but goes up the full length for 600m at 5.8%.
Three such tough climbs in 4kms, and Kristoff is favourite? |
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Panzerwagon for the ITT for me. Was getting all excited for Rohan Dennis the last few weeks in fact, after watching an interesting discussion about him here, but this power course at 5kms extra distance is made-to-order for the Panzerwagon and he is absolutely livid for EQS failure in the TTT and will be out for revenge.
START LIST: Start N° Name UCI Code Team 14:43:30 1 MARTIN Tony GER19850423 GERMANY 14:42:00 2 DUMOULIN Tom NED19901111 NETHERLANDS 14:40:30 3 KIRYIENKA Vasil BLR19810628 BELARUS 14:39:00 4 DENNIS Rohan AUS19900528 AUSTRALIA 14:37:30 5 MALORI Adriano ITA19880128 ITALY 14:36:00 6 BRANDLE Matthias AUT19891207 AUSTRIA 14:34:30 7 CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan ESP19870427 SPAIN 14:33:00 8 BODNAR Maciej POL19850307 POLAND 14:31:30 9 KUENG Stefan SUI19931116 SWITZERLAND 14:30:00 10 DOWSETT Alex GBR19881003 GREAT BRITAIN 14:28:30 11 BARTA Jan CZE19841207 CZECH REPUBLIC 14:27:00 12 SANTOS SIMOES OLIVEIRA Nelson Filipe POR19890306 PORTUGAL 14:25:30 13 SERGENT Jesse NZL19880708 NEW ZEALAND 14:24:00 14 PHINNEY Taylor USA19900627 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 14:22:30 15 VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen BEL19830201 BELGIUM 14:21:00 16 JUUL JENSEN Christopher DEN19890706 DENMARK 14:19:30 17 COPPEL Jerome FRA19860806 FRANCE 14:18:00 18 NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas LTU19880130 LITHUANIA 14:16:30 19 OVECHKIN Artem RUS19860711 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 14:15:00 20 VANGSTAD Andreas NOR19920324 NORWAY 14:13:30 21 URAN URAN Rigoberto COL19870126 COLOMBIA 14:12:00 22 GRIVKO Andriy UKR19830807 UKRAINE 14:10:30 23 HOULE Hugo CAN19900927 CANADA 14:09:00 24 DEBESAY Mekseb ERI19910616 ERITREA 14:07:30 25 LUTSENKO Alexey KAZ19920907 KAZAKHSTAN 14:06:00 26 KANGERT Tanel EST19870311 ESTONIA 14:04:30 27 NAVARRETE Segundo ECU19850521 ECUADOR 14:03:00 28 SMUKULIS Gatis LAT19870415 LATVIA 14:01:30 29 LARSSON Gustav SWE19800920 SWEDEN 14:00:00 30 TZORTZAKIS Polychronis GRE19890103 GREECE 13:58:30 31 NIYONSHUTI Adrien RWA19870102 RWANDA 13:57:00 32 TVETCOV Serghei ROU19881229 ROMANIA 13:55:30 33 MIHAYLOV Nikolay BUL19880408 BULGARIA 13:54:00 34 RODAS OCHOA Manuel GUA19840705 GUATEMALA 13:52:30 35 HALMURATOV Muradjan UZB19820611 UZBEKISTAN 13:51:00 36 TUGULDUR Tuulkhangai MGL19850617 MONGOLIA 13:49:30 37 MARTINEZ Juan PUR19870824 PUERTO RICO 13:48:00 38 PLIUSCHIN Alexandr MDA19870113 REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA 13:46:30 39 POPSTEFANOV Gorgi MKD19870719 FYR OF MACEDONIA 13:45:00 40 TAVERAS Norlandis DOM19891117 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 13:43:30 41 ELBOURDAINY Ahmed QAT19900404 QATAR 13:42:00 42 ALBOS CAVALIERE David AND19840731 ANDORRA 13:40:30 43 ARNDT Nikias GER19911118 GERMANY 13:39:00 44 KELDERMAN Wilco NED19910325 NETHERLANDS 13:37:30 45 SIUTSOU Kanstantsin BLR19820809 BELARUS 13:36:00 46 DURBRIDGE Luke AUS19910409 AUSTRALIA 13:34:30 47 MOSER Moreno ITA19901225 ITALY 13:33:00 48 POSTLBERGER Lukas AUT19920110 AUSTRIA 13:31:30 49 SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon ESP19831124 SPAIN 13:30:00 50 BIALOBLOCKI Marcin POL19830902 POLAND 13:28:30 51 DILLIER Silvan SUI19900803 SWITZERLAND 13:27:00 52 CUMMINGS Stephen GBR19810319 GREAT BRITAIN 13:25:30 53 VAKOC Petr CZE19920711 CZECH REPUBLIC 13:24:00 54 BEWLEY Sam NZL19870722 NEW ZEALAND 13:22:30 55 CRADDOCK Lawson USA19920220 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 13:21:00 56 LAMPAERT Yves BEL19910410 BELGIUM 13:19:30 57 QUAADE Rasmus Christian DEN19900107 DENMARK 13:18:00 58 SICARD Romain FRA19880101 FRANCE 13:16:30 59 BAGDONAS Gediminas LTU19851226 LITHUANIA 13:15:00 60 ZAKARIN Ilnur RUS19890915 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 13:13:30 61 LAENGEN Vegard Stake NOR19890207 NORWAY 13:12:00 62 ROTH Ryan CAN19830110 CANADA 13:10:30 63 FOMINYKH Daniil KAZ19910828 KAZAKHSTAN 13:09:00 64 TAARAMAE Rein EST19870424 ESTONIA 13:07:30 65 QUISHPE Carlos Eduardo ECU19910721 ECUADOR 13:06:00 66 SARAMOTINS Aleksejs LAT19820408 LATVIA 13:04:30 67 LUDVIGSSON Tobias SWE19910222 SWEDEN 13:03:00 68 SAKELLARIDIS MANGOURAS Neofytos GRE19890131 GREECE 13:01:30 69 GERMAN MERAN Rafael DOM19870730 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 13:00:00 70 HEPBURN Michael AUS19910817 AUSTRALIA Cross tailwind from NE dropping throughout the day. Good luck to all, SP |
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Think we could see a few surprises here but for a top three I'm going to go:
Dennis Martin Phinney |
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Anyone backed King Keung at 150/1?
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Really interested to see how King Kung goes here, but I've only backed the Panzerwagon and laid Dumoulin on account of his injury & likely tiredness post Vuelta.
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I see you've worked on the image since the previous one MC -- got to love it!
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Yeah found a better Kong image and re-did it
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Moser getting so close suggests Blockman's time wasn't really that great.
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Yeah, think we'll see Martin & Dennis beat these times by quite a way unless the weather dramatically changes
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This wind might be a spanner in the works.
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