2015 Worlds. Richmond, USA.

Is there any start order advantage, presently?

Could suit someone like Boonen then?

It could suit Boonen, would never discount a former WC over this type of course, but I think it might prove to be one for an Ardennes classics rider, more -- but still waiting for better prices with the Books and also to get matched for my five selections, on here. I mean, Boonen versus Gilbert over this course, both WCs, and what with the technical nature, such a straight-out, head-to-head match-up has to go with Gilbert doesn't it?

Looks like you're right about Orica - Bewley out the back door - BMC and Etixx looking the two still in it

Better than the final three to go out, over the entire course, a proper BMC destruction job!

I had doubts whether Phinney would be fit enough for that and whether Dillier and Kueng would be able to last the pace at the tail end of the season at their age but they just smashed it to pieces. Brilliant ride by Dennis as well.

Massive failure by OGE -- thought they would have had the podium, at least.

Good luck MC -- no bets for me -- I don't trust the women!

http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/article/2015/07/29/upcoming-cycling-sbs

Would be tempted by Tara Whitten to pick up the early lead, but no liquidity in the market so wouldn't be able to get out.

UCI is streaming live, but they got some crazy deals going that people in Canada and the USA are even blocked. They have a schedule and geo-block link, but the page cannot be found, which is kind of convenient. Anyway: http://t.co/6VbAKB4szS

Brennauer 6th

3rd brennauer :(

2015  »  World Championships - Road Race (WC)
Classic  »  Richmond  ›  Richmond   (259.2k)

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Startlist http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163330&c=3
Market http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/road-world-championships/mens-road-race/winner
Coverage of this race starts in the UK from 2pm on Eurosport 2. However, the race is 260km long and being as it is 16 laps of a 16.2km circuit, even the most enthusiastic fans would have to admit that this could be a little on the dull side for the first few hours, resembling a city criterium. The course itself looks fairly interesting. It has some cobbled sections, and has three short steep climbs back-loaded into the final 4km. It also has some fast descents and plenty of sharp turns. The nature of this course will make it difficult to control the race as it speeds up. There are 22 turns in total, including several 90 degree turns and two hairpins. In total, that makes 365 turns. The constant changes of pace and the length of this course will mean that energy conservation will be crucial and positioning will be all-important as the late attacks begin. Those with a vested interest in bringing the race back together will have their work cut out on the final section. Those three climbs in the final 4km will also make it harder for the sprinters. The first is a winding ascent through Libby Hill Park.

This is a cobbled climb and although I don't think this is the Koppenberg exactly, it will make it harder for the riders who aren't cobbled specialists or even climbers. As far as I can make out, this climb is about 200m long. There is then a descent before the climb of 23rd Street.


This has been resurfaced, but is said to be upto 19% and 110m long. Even a short climb like this could be enough to distance the sprinters taken a number of times at pace. There is then another descent with some sharp corners that will make it hard for dropped riders to re-engage, before a longer (300m or so) final climb up Govenor Street. We already know this climb from the TTT and the tough false flat that follows it.

How will it play out
There are as always number of interesting questions to consider when finding the winners of the worlds.
1) What can the host nation produce? BMC have already won the TTT and although the American team do not seem to have a natural contender, having the rainbow jersey riding for an American team in 2016 would be massive from a commercial point of view so riders in BMC or Garmin’s roster for next year have to be given a second look.
2) How will trade team alliances cross over with national team colours? We saw in 2013 that Valverde could not chase Rodriguez (national team mate) and Rui Costa (trade team mate) and drag Nibali back in to contention even though he might have been a likelier winner considering the flat finish, and in the end Rui Costa took the win.
3) Do sprinters take this?
A sprint of some sort is considered very likely by the books. Kristoff and Sagan are joint favourites, with Bling and Degenkolb next in the market. These are all sprinters who are renowned for being able to get over climbs and (certainly in the case of Kristoff, Sagan and Degenkolb) ability on the cobbles. These are all proven classics specialists. Kristoff has not been in the best of form in recent months, and he only has 5 team mates, although if it does come to a sprint Boassen-Hagen should be able to provide a superb leadout. Sagan has been in fantastic form this year, getting stronger as the year has gone on. Crashing out of the Vuelta could well prove an advantage in terms of having time to prepare and although he is used to working solo, he might find it hard marking all the late moves by himself. I wonder whether any Tinkoff men in the field might give Sagan a hand? I think both these two are serious dangers but at the price I am happy to let them win without my cash on.

John Degenkolb is slightly different, he is a serious threat with a very strong team. Germany look to have an excellent combination of support men and leadout. Even the Gorilla was practicing his leadout role in the Tour of Britain. Degenkolb will be Germany's captain unless it ends in an unlikely blanket bunch sprint and then Greipel will be plan B. 12/1 is a very fair price for Degenkolb in my eyes. The other interesting fast man is Bling Matthews. Again, he has full team support from Australia following Gerrans' difficult year. The Aussies have a very strong team as well, and they are very astute tactical riders that know how to exploit in-race situations and when they put a plan together they rarely come up short. This has been Matthews' goal for the whole year, and I think he should be on the premises.

I don't think this course favours a sprint. I think the course itself will be fairly selective. The climbs are tough, but more of a problem will be the constant changes of direction, but the cobbles, the descents and the cobbles will also make things hard. The bunch will naturally thin out, at times we will see riders taking corners in single file. The constantly changing nature of this course will mean that it will be hard to organise a chase and sole attackers can use this to their advantage. I think one day specialists are the way to go here. Of course, Degenkolb, Sagan and Kristoff are proven in the classics in races like this, but I do think they may be vulnerable to late attacks on the climbs from riders like Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Stybar, Valverde, Terpstra and Boonen.

Poland have the defending champion in Michal Kwiatowski. The course looks like it should suit so much that I think he would be approaching favouritism if his form this year wasn't so sketchy. Since his Amstel Gold win in April he has shown almost nothing, although he did finish among the lead groups in Quebec and Montreal, which will give his supporters some crumbs of comfort.

Belgium have a phenomenal squad. They have three leaders in Gilbert, Van Avermaet and Boonen. Their support squad is stupidly talented. Benoot, Vanmarcke and Vandenbergh would be team captains in most teams. The one issue you wonder about is whether they have too many cards to play? That could be an issue, but it also might work the other way. Gilbert could attack on the last climb allowing one of his team mates to sit on and take the win. Gilbert and Boonen have both won the Rainbow Jersey previously, it will be interesting to see if one of them can do it again or if Van Avermaet can join them. He has been getting closer and closer in the classics, but has never won one yet.

Spain also have a strong squad, with Rodriguez, Valverde and maybe also Sanchez or Lobato as options. I think that this course suits Lobato best of all, but I think Spain will ride for Rodriguez and like in 2013 they will fall short. I'd like to see Great Britain ride for Luke Rowe. He's a strong rider who can thrive on cobbles and has a fast finish. I think Rowe will have to wait for his breakthrough though and the rest of the team are either not suited to this course, over-raced or just not good enough, and this won't be a winning year for GB. Italy have loads of possibilities. Viviani is a confident sprinter who has shown excellent recent form and has prepared and trained specifically for this race. I wonder whether he will get the support of his team though as they have plenty of other options. Nibali has been in great recent form and will surely try a late attack on the climbs. Diego Ulissi is a punchy rider that could win from a small group if the sprinters are dropped. He won a stage of the Giro that was a very similar finish to this course, and recently won the Marco Pantani and had a 5th in Quebec. The Italians have a strong team of domestiques and also have a couple of potential alternative weapons in riders like Oss and Trentin.

France have Bouhanni and Demare as options in a sprint but it could be Gallopin and Alaphilippe that are more suited to this course. If Gallopin escapes he could be a tricky man to pull back, and Alaphilippe showed he can feature prominently in long, big field classics with tough finishes this spring. Holland are another team with a very strong team. Eyes will be on Tom Dumoulin, and whilst this course could suit him, he is also concentrating on the ITT, and Niki Terpstra will be the team leader.

Colombia have got a decent team, but they would surely have preferred more climbing. Rigoberto Uran, who moving to Garmin and is in great form after winning in Quebec, is probably their best option. Riders that could be suited to the course from other teams include Navardauskas of Lithuania, Rui Costa of Portugal and Albasini of Switzerland. All three have shown that they can follow the right moves and win from small groups so cannot be discounted despite a lack of team mates. Indeed, Rui Costa himself showed that it doesn't have to prevent you winning this race in 2013.

Who wins?
There are a number of ways this race can pan out, but I'm looking for someone that can win solo or from a small group. I think this course could set up nicely for my main bet Niki Terpstra who won't mind the length, climbs or cobbles. He showed he was in superb form during the TTT, and has a very strong team behind him. The 2014 Paris Roubaix winner had a superb classics season without getting on to the top step. He won his national championships for the 3rd time this year, and he can make up for exclusion from last year's team by getting his hands on the rainbow jersey this time. 40/1 is a superb price and I've taken the 4 places. I've also backed Greg Van Avermaet. I think he has got nearer and nearer to winning a big one and although I'd have liked a bigger price than 16/1 (4 places) I think he has a great shout in a race like this, he would be a brilliant result for the Americans riding as he does for BMC. I was a little torn between Gilbert and GVA but in the end I My third pick is Julian Alaphillipe. I was torn between him and Gallopin but I think that at 50/1 Alaphillipe has all the hallmarks of being a potential great and his 2nd places in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Fleche Wallonne read well on a course like this. Lastly, I have backed Bling Matthews. I have taken 14/1 about Bling without worrying about 4 places. He has a strong team that he leads, he could even possibly count on support from other riders, he will have no problems on the climbs and he has prepared for this all year.

**Terpstra 40/1 (4 places)
*Van Avermaet 16/1 (4 places)
*Bling 14/1
1/2pt Alaphilippe 50/1 (4 places)

Good luck everyone

Libby Hill Park climb is significantly longer than 200m, it is 700m at 4.8%, whilst the Koppenberg is 600m at 11.6% and it's fairly straight in comparison, for what will hurt the peloton most here, are the four main twisting turns which on the cobbles impedes even an expert rider's momentum. I mean, even the Paterberg is a straight climb, but by the top turn it absolutely destroys most riders. The North 23rd Street climb is much shorter but a lot steeper, about 250m at 10.8%. Finally, the Governor's climb starts before they make the right hand turn, but goes up the full length for 600m at 5.8%.

Three such tough climbs in 4kms, and Kristoff is favourite?

Think we could see a few surprises here but for a top three I'm going to go:

Dennis
Martin
Phinney

Really interested to see how King Kung goes here, but I've only backed the Panzerwagon and laid Dumoulin on account of his injury & likely tiredness post Vuelta.

Yeah found a better Kong image and re-did it

Yeah, think we'll see Martin & Dennis beat these times by quite a way unless the weather dramatically changes