I hope Johanssen wins.  Maybe her last/best chance

Wow. Armistead. How did she win from there???

She should have won last year as well really.  Will be a good contest if/when Vos returns

Kristoff is hoping for a bunch sprint, but that requires cooperation by more than just the sprinters teams. I think the Belgium team, to name just one, are critical to keeping a sprinters bunch sprint scenario alive, and they are just not going to participate in any way or measure.
          The Belgiums will look to put GVA or Benoot into an early break in order to secure an armchair ride as NED, FRA, ITA, GER, NOR and especially ESP and AUS are made to ride hard on the front. If ESP get a man it into the early break with a BEL or ITA rider than that pretty-much shuts the door on a sprinters bunch sprint, if that wasn't already highly unlikely, given how hard the race will become, and how hard the puncheurs and cobbled classics specialists will go in the technical 5kms climbing finale.
          For instance, up the final time of the cobbled Libby Hill Park climb, which is technical and hard, the peloton (or remnants) should explode, regardless of the situation on the road, as it is going to be a natural staging point, and I think it will be the Ardennes riders, particularly consistent LBL performers, who will have the strength to clear away and consolidate over the remaining two climbs of the very steep yet short North 23rd Street, and the dragging Governor’s climb. It is not just the cobbles, which make the Libby Hill Park climb so tough, but particularly the changing direction of the climb over the cobbles. This technical nature means that the cobbled classics specialists, let alone the sprinters, are unlikely to hold their momentum (in the way they might up the straight Koppenberg or the Paterburg) let alone keep their rhythm by the ninety-degree turn at the top.
          There is going to be some Ardennes riders who are going to be on good sensations, and having effectively three opportunities to attack on climbs where gaps can be opened-up relatively easily, suggests that the only sprint we are likely to get is one involving a versatile top-class cobbled classics specialist rider like Terpstra or Sagan, amongst a host of highly-rated puncheurs, in which case the versatile rider is advantaged, and which in-turn makes it even more imperative for the puncheurs to distance them and keep them out out of sprint calculations.
          I therefore agree with MC that a sprinters bunch sprint is unlikely, but that a sprint involving the riders -- of the type -- mentioned is much more probable.
          Nevertheless, I am sold on the puncheurs over the cobbled classics specialists because of the North 23rd Street climb. 250m at 10.8% makes it very selective indeed, and I am just not confident that a gap can be bridged to a puncheur in the 1km prior to Governor’s by a hard-man. In effect, the cobbled classics specialists are already on or near their limit on Libby Hill Park as the elastic stretches, and then totally disadvantaged by North 23rd Street, and whilst they are recovering on the descents, the puncheurs have bury-mode ability and suitable ground to make their attacks stick and the elastic to break.

***** Vincenzo ‘The Shark’ Nibali -- Perhaps unsurprisingly, Nibali had turned off after winning the Tour last year, riding five Italian classics in six days prior to his start in the Worlds, and finishing as follows: 18/45/DNF/DNF/DNF. His expected poor showing in the Worlds was evidenced by his 40th place finish. By comparison, this year he has ridden four of those Italian classics in five days and finished: 2/1/3/5. In those four races he not only showed his motivation and form, but also his team approach. Firstly, in the Coppa Agostini, he showed he wanted a place on the Italian team for the Worlds when he finished 2nd to Davide Rebellin. However, Cassani only selected him for the team when Nibali won the Coppa Bernocchi the next day, a race traditionally won by sprinters. What was impressive, apart from Nibali winning with a powerful late attack, was the way the break worked togther, which Nibali described as follows to Gazzetta dello Sport: “We went hard, rarely below 45km/h and often over 50km/h despite a head wind.” In the Memorial Marco Pantani, again finding himself in an all-Italian break, he gifted the win to Ulissi whilst cheering on the winner and Visconti as they crossed the line a couple of bike lengths ahead of him. Ditto GP Industria & Commercio di Prato -- his form was more than confirmed and this block of racing was successful.
          Now, after his controversial exit from the Vuelta after stage 2, Nibali went home to Sicily, demoralised and angry after feeling he was treated harshly, and he stayed as such until his father convinced him to restart his training on home roads, and that’s precisely what he did with his initial childhood coach and parent, Salvatore. It appears that Nibali now has a point-to-prove and sees this race as his opportunity to vanquish his Vuelta demons. I mean, what better way to rise above the controvery of being called a cheat than by riding in the Rainbow Jersey for an entire season.
          The Italian team have been typically cunning with their tactics, coming out and suggesting most of their riders have an excellent chance to win the race, including their sprinters, however over this course Nibali’s characteristics are best suited. 80/1 best at SP, and has found strong support, currently 16/1 shortest and 50/1 best, which the latter presents as excellent value. Has very strong E/W claims. The testing material. Special.

** Philippe ‘The Boar of the Ardennes’ Gilbert -- 2012 World Champion. The last multiple WC was Bettini when he won back-to-back in 2006-07, however Oscar Freire was the last rider to repeat WC wins over several years, which he did in: 1999, 2001, and 2004. Gilbert is a GP circuit specialist, is highly advantaged by the course, particularly the three climbs coming over the final 4kms, and is a member of arguably the strongest team in the race. Boonen came out earlier saying that essentially having multiple leaders in the Belgium team is not ideal, but given Gilbert’s expert GP experience and race timing, he will know precisely when and where to attack to give himself the best chance of winning.
Of course this is not the Gilbert of 2011-12, however we have seen riders in their 30s winning big races this season. Gilbert is motivated to go out on top, and since his contract with BMC runs out next year it would ideal for him to ride at least another season in the RJ. He has won over 200kms earlier in the year when winning the GP Cerami, and also won two stages in the Giro before that, albeit over CT distances.
          He outsprinted some top puncheurs in San Sebsatian to claim a 2nd place, and whilst he was a little disappointing in the Eneco Tour when a win on GC was manageable, his two top-10 results in the Laurentian classics as a tune-up for this suggest he is in primed condition. Drifted out a tad from his price at SP. Still very short, at 25/1, best. Sure to give a good account of himself. Consistent performer. Will make presence felt. Treat warily.

* Tony Gallopin -- Finished in 6th place, last year. Fair competitive performances in the Laurentian classics as a tune-up. It is his 4th place finish in the Brabant Arrow, and particularly his 6th place finish in AGR which suggest he can perform well here. Again proved his endurance ability when 9th in MSR earlier in the season, however he hasn’t won over 200kms since San Sebastian 2013, which is a concern. 60/1 best at SP, and remains there. Some value. Has the ability. Needs to lift. Watch closely. 

1/2* Michael ‘Bling’ Matthews -- 14th last year. U23 WC in 2010, in Geelong Australia. Would be the first U23/EM WC in history. Has been vocal about wanting the leadership of the Australian team, and is being very confident about his chances, however Gerrans has not yielded to Bling and given his past performances Gerrans has been confirmed as co-leader.
          Bling is suggesting he has the characteristics to be a strong GP circuit performer. Very good endurance. Nevertheless, he hasn’t won over 200kms since that climb up to Montecassino in stage 6 of the 2014 Giro. Will be under a lot of pressure. Solid in the market throughout, shortening into 12/1, best. May require more experience. Commands some respect. Take on trust.

1/8* Roman Kreuziger -- First appearance at the Worlds since 2012 when DNF, and a 51st place is his best finish in 2008. Has proven his stamina in the past when winning AGR in 2013 over 252kms. Suited by the finish. Drifted out from his opening 250/1 into 300/1. Fair value. Place claims best with PP 1/4 5 places. Worthy of some consideration.   

Good luck to all,
SP

Funny that we've both picked an Italian, a Belgian and a Frenchman among our biggest bets SP. But where you have gone Nibali, Gilbert & Gallopin I've gone Ulissi, Van Avermaet & Alaphillipe. Your three were all on my shortlist but I guess you can't back them all. Looking forward to this. Nobody in the break of any consequence from the look of it.

All we needed to do was tip up Valverde to come third!

Conor Dunne for Ireland looks like he has something for the cobbled classics in the future -- like the look of him!

Boonen playing domestique -- BEL are so strong -- finally some excitement being injected into this race!

Breakaway dead at 96kms to-go!

Pace. Belgium. Injected. How could you not have a BEL rider in your team?

4 laps to-go...

3 laps to-go...

Kreuziger working for Stybar by going on the front like this.

Nice break -- but looks like it'll come back with the Gorilla on the front of the peloton.

Why is Boonen working here when Viviani isn't?

Break back -- course open!

Okay, so we get our fireworks on the final three climbs inside the final 5kms, looks like.

Adding more Bling!

Sagan!