Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
SwingingPick
19 Sep 15 20:36
Joined:
Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
Monday. 21 September. Men's TTT.
Thursday. 24 September. Men's ITT.
Sunday. 27 September. Men's RR.

TTT Course: Shorter course than what is the standard for a WC, at 38.8 kms. "Teams will roll off from Henrico County at beautiful Lewis Ginter Botanical Garden, originally the Lakeside Wheel Club, founded in 1895 as a gathering spot for turn-of-the-century cyclists. The opening kilometers race through Richmond’s historic Northside neighborhoods leading into downtown.
     The course continues east through town and down rural Route 5, which parallels the 50-mile Virginia Capital Trail. The first few kilometers are scenic, flat, open roads that eventually narrow and wind through Richmond National Battlefield Park, a historic Civil War site.
     The race re-enters the city through Shockoe Bottom, eventually making a hard right turn on Governor Street to ascend 300 meters. At the top, teams take a sharp left turn onto the false flat, finishing straight, 680 meters to the finish."

  Team   Worst   Best    Projected 
  BMC    Evens    5/4      4/5         
  EQS    11/4      4/1      11/4       
  OGE    5/2        4/1      5/1         
  MOV    6/1        12/1    14/1       
  TCS      14/1      20/1    10/1       
  AST      20/1      50/1    50/1       
  SKY      28/1      50/1    66/1       
  TGA      28/1      66/1    40/1       
  TLJ      25/1      66/1    33/1       
  IAM      40/1      80/1    100/1     
  TFR      30/1      80/1    80/1       


BMC -- Current WCs. Won the stages in the Crit Dauphine and TdF. Showed their impressive bike handling skills and professionalism in the short Vuelta opener, also. Four of the six riders from last year's WC race line-up here again. Worthy of being installed as the short-priced favourites. Hard to beat.
EQS -- 3rd, last time. Will be led by the Panzerwagon with long pulls. Have trained well. Making strong suggestions of giving a winning performance. Consider very closely.
OGE -- 2nd, last time. Excellent team harmony. Will miss Hepburn if as expected he is a late scratching, or if he starts he may not be at his best. Take on trust.

Good luck to all,
SP
Pause Switch to Standard View 2015 Worlds. Richmond, USA.
Show More
Loading...
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 7:46 PM BST
I see you've worked on the image since the previous one MC -- got to love it!
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 7:47 PM BST
Yeah found a better Kong image and re-did it Laugh
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 7:52 PM BST
Moser getting so close suggests Blockman's time wasn't really that great.
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 7:54 PM BST
Yeah, think we'll see Martin & Dennis beat these times by quite a way unless the weather dramatically changes
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 7:59 PM BST
This wind might be a spanner in the works.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:00 PM BST
The Lion of Flanders flags on the finish suggest a headwind.
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:00 PM BST
Coppel flying
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:01 PM BST
Scratch that -- they're all over the shop. Blush
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:04 PM BST
Not too worried about Coppel, the final little ramp will pinch him plenty.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:05 PM BST
Who you got on comms mate? Anthony McCrossin doing his solo thing on the World Feed over here.
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:10 PM BST
Kirby and Brian Smith although at the moment its Martin Tyler and Alan "Smudger" Smith because the missus has the control and has gone for the football until half time Sad
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:12 PM BST
Shocked Laugh
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:17 PM BST
Dennis puncture?
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:18 PM BST
If you've missed it -- that's a bike change for Dennis just there -- that'll be his race gone, I think.
Report bb66 September 23, 2015 8:19 PM BST
Martin only 6th @ IM2
Report Happybacker September 23, 2015 8:19 PM BST
Kiryienka trading about 1/10 seems like he must be miles ahead! why couldn't he do this in the Vuelta when was on him!
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:20 PM BST
Have topped up on the Panzerwagon for a trade now -- he should accelerate toward the end, I believe.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:23 PM BST
Did not expect that from Coppel.
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:25 PM BST
Coppel always used to be a promising time trialler at Saur Sojasun but he never properly fulfilled it. IAM must have increased his focus on TTing. Chance of a medal there.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:25 PM BST
The Panzerwagon doesn't look like he has even engaged top gear yet -- not giving up on him!
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:26 PM BST
Kiryienka actually my best result here Blush
Report bb66 September 23, 2015 8:28 PM BST
already doubting Martin will win a medal
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:29 PM BST
Looked to be weakening a bit, but the market is sold on his sectionals.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:34 PM BST
Maloti Kiryienka flip approaching.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:34 PM BST
Malori *
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:36 PM BST
Surely Malori can't win a TT outside of Italy?
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:36 PM BST
And Shirley not a Worlds! LaughShocked
Report Happybacker September 23, 2015 8:37 PM BST
Going to be v close between Malori and Kiryienka by the looks of it!
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:37 PM BST
The Panzerwagon is looking more like:
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:38 PM BST
Coppel should get a medal here unless Dennis and/or Panz have saved a hell of lot
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:41 PM BST
Brian Smith apparently thought Malori had a good chance of winning today. Just didn't think to mention it before the event.
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:42 PM BST
Malori has this imo
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:43 PM BST
Yeah!
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:47 PM BST
Wow! Thought we'd see shocks but that podium is mental.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:48 PM BST
Might have done quite well if I only kept the Dumoulin lay -- truly shocked by this effort from Tony Martin -- way down like bb66 was inferring.
Report SwingingPick September 23, 2015 8:49 PM BST
Keung 19th.
Report marychain1 September 23, 2015 8:51 PM BST

"What a beast! KIRI nailed it!! #richmond2015 WorldTTChamp!" @chrisfroome
Report marychain1 September 25, 2015 3:24 PM BST
Anyone had a bet on tonight's U-23 RR. Britain have an amazing team for this, must have a chance of some sort of medal with Doull, Hart, Peters, Davies. Doull is favourite with Bet £3.65. I have to admit I've found this fairly inpenetrable to work out but I've had small each way bets on Tom Bohli at 125/1 and Jack Haig at 50/1.
Report CJ70 September 25, 2015 6:52 PM BST
I assume they are pricing in the fact this goes to a bunch sprint? Have a TV for today's footage.

Dunbar trying to get away in an early break.
Report CJ70 September 25, 2015 8:27 PM BST
Dunbar, Schachmann, Martinell, A Kazakakh, A Chilean in the break. Looks like this is going to a secondary break or a bunch sprint.
Report marychain1 September 25, 2015 9:31 PM BST
These last few kms will be very interesting
Report CJ70 September 25, 2015 9:34 PM BST
Martinelli is a lazy so & so. Too many Valverde videos.
Report CJ70 September 25, 2015 9:35 PM BST
Christ. Mental..
Report CJ70 September 25, 2015 9:41 PM BST
What a race.. I have to say I have no bet in the elite race after watching that.
Report marychain1 September 25, 2015 9:42 PM BST
Damn, my two 12th & 13th. Up there though. Christ, if it rains on Sunday all bets are off. We should expect to see a LOT of pink on the sprinters on oddschecker over the next two days.
Report marychain1 September 26, 2015 5:25 PM BST
Billed as a Lizzie Armitage certainty but rain seems more than possible again tonight, and it surely pays not to go too heavily into anything. I'd like to see Armitage win, but I've backed Trixi Worrack 100/1, Elena Cecchini 50/1, Amy Pieters 66/1 and Lucy Garner 150/1.
Report GoBallistic September 26, 2015 6:03 PM BST
I hope Johanssen wins.  Maybe her last/best chance
Report marychain1 September 26, 2015 9:09 PM BST
Intruiging race this. The lone break looks cooked. The chase group look cooked. The peloton looks cooked.
Report marychain1 September 26, 2015 9:25 PM BST
Wow. Armistead. How did she win from there???
Report sixtwosix September 26, 2015 9:27 PM BST
Terrific performance , strong on the climbs and the best finisher ....even though she had to lead it out.
Report GoBallistic September 26, 2015 9:39 PM BST
She should have won last year as well really.  Will be a good contest if/when Vos returns
Report marychain1 September 26, 2015 11:03 PM BST
Sure everyone has got on to it but nobody use Betfair for any bets if you're going e/w. PP & Boyles are going 5 places each way. Corals and Slybet are going 4 places. Why on earth would anyone use Betfair?
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:52 AM BST
Kristoff is hoping for a bunch sprint, but that requires cooperation by more than just the sprinters teams. I think the Belgium team, to name just one, are critical to keeping a sprinters bunch sprint scenario alive, and they are just not going to participate in any way or measure.
          The Belgiums will look to put GVA or Benoot into an early break in order to secure an armchair ride as NED, FRA, ITA, GER, NOR and especially ESP and AUS are made to ride hard on the front. If ESP get a man it into the early break with a BEL or ITA rider than that pretty-much shuts the door on a sprinters bunch sprint, if that wasn't already highly unlikely, given how hard the race will become, and how hard the puncheurs and cobbled classics specialists will go in the technical 5kms climbing finale.
          For instance, up the final time of the cobbled Libby Hill Park climb, which is technical and hard, the peloton (or remnants) should explode, regardless of the situation on the road, as it is going to be a natural staging point, and I think it will be the Ardennes riders, particularly consistent LBL performers, who will have the strength to clear away and consolidate over the remaining two climbs of the very steep yet short North 23rd Street, and the dragging Governor’s climb. It is not just the cobbles, which make the Libby Hill Park climb so tough, but particularly the changing direction of the climb over the cobbles. This technical nature means that the cobbled classics specialists, let alone the sprinters, are unlikely to hold their momentum (in the way they might up the straight Koppenberg or the Paterburg) let alone keep their rhythm by the ninety-degree turn at the top.
          There is going to be some Ardennes riders who are going to be on good sensations, and having effectively three opportunities to attack on climbs where gaps can be opened-up relatively easily, suggests that the only sprint we are likely to get is one involving a versatile top-class cobbled classics specialist rider like Terpstra or Sagan, amongst a host of highly-rated puncheurs, in which case the versatile rider is advantaged, and which in-turn makes it even more imperative for the puncheurs to distance them and keep them out out of sprint calculations.
          I therefore agree with MC that a sprinters bunch sprint is unlikely, but that a sprint involving the riders -- of the type -- mentioned is much more probable.
          Nevertheless, I am sold on the puncheurs over the cobbled classics specialists because of the North 23rd Street climb. 250m at 10.8% makes it very selective indeed, and I am just not confident that a gap can be bridged to a puncheur in the 1km prior to Governor’s by a hard-man. In effect, the cobbled classics specialists are already on or near their limit on Libby Hill Park as the elastic stretches, and then totally disadvantaged by North 23rd Street, and whilst they are recovering on the descents, the puncheurs have bury-mode ability and suitable ground to make their attacks stick and the elastic to break.
Report marychain1 September 27, 2015 10:10 AM BST
Terpstra and GVA are my main two bets. Ulissi is my next best winner. The stage of the Giro he won had a finish very similar to this course. I've also got Bling and Alaphilippe as decent wins. I've covered Uran, Oss and Geschke at very big prices.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 10:32 AM BST
***** Vincenzo ‘The Shark’ Nibali -- Perhaps unsurprisingly, Nibali had turned off after winning the Tour last year, riding five Italian classics in six days prior to his start in the Worlds, and finishing as follows: 18/45/DNF/DNF/DNF. His expected poor showing in the Worlds was evidenced by his 40th place finish. By comparison, this year he has ridden four of those Italian classics in five days and finished: 2/1/3/5. In those four races he not only showed his motivation and form, but also his team approach. Firstly, in the Coppa Agostini, he showed he wanted a place on the Italian team for the Worlds when he finished 2nd to Davide Rebellin. However, Cassani only selected him for the team when Nibali won the Coppa Bernocchi the next day, a race traditionally won by sprinters. What was impressive, apart from Nibali winning with a powerful late attack, was the way the break worked togther, which Nibali described as follows to Gazzetta dello Sport: “We went hard, rarely below 45km/h and often over 50km/h despite a head wind.” In the Memorial Marco Pantani, again finding himself in an all-Italian break, he gifted the win to Ulissi whilst cheering on the winner and Visconti as they crossed the line a couple of bike lengths ahead of him. Ditto GP Industria & Commercio di Prato -- his form was more than confirmed and this block of racing was successful.
          Now, after his controversial exit from the Vuelta after stage 2, Nibali went home to Sicily, demoralised and angry after feeling he was treated harshly, and he stayed as such until his father convinced him to restart his training on home roads, and that’s precisely what he did with his initial childhood coach and parent, Salvatore. It appears that Nibali now has a point-to-prove and sees this race as his opportunity to vanquish his Vuelta demons. I mean, what better way to rise above the controvery of being called a cheat than by riding in the Rainbow Jersey for an entire season.
          The Italian team have been typically cunning with their tactics, coming out and suggesting most of their riders have an excellent chance to win the race, including their sprinters, however over this course Nibali’s characteristics are best suited. 80/1 best at SP, and has found strong support, currently 16/1 shortest and 50/1 best, which the latter presents as excellent value. Has very strong E/W claims. The testing material. Special.

** Philippe ‘The Boar of the Ardennes’ Gilbert -- 2012 World Champion. The last multiple WC was Bettini when he won back-to-back in 2006-07, however Oscar Freire was the last rider to repeat WC wins over several years, which he did in: 1999, 2001, and 2004. Gilbert is a GP circuit specialist, is highly advantaged by the course, particularly the three climbs coming over the final 4kms, and is a member of arguably the strongest team in the race. Boonen came out earlier saying that essentially having multiple leaders in the Belgium team is not ideal, but given Gilbert’s expert GP experience and race timing, he will know precisely when and where to attack to give himself the best chance of winning.
Of course this is not the Gilbert of 2011-12, however we have seen riders in their 30s winning big races this season. Gilbert is motivated to go out on top, and since his contract with BMC runs out next year it would ideal for him to ride at least another season in the RJ. He has won over 200kms earlier in the year when winning the GP Cerami, and also won two stages in the Giro before that, albeit over CT distances.
          He outsprinted some top puncheurs in San Sebsatian to claim a 2nd place, and whilst he was a little disappointing in the Eneco Tour when a win on GC was manageable, his two top-10 results in the Laurentian classics as a tune-up for this suggest he is in primed condition. Drifted out a tad from his price at SP. Still very short, at 25/1, best. Sure to give a good account of himself. Consistent performer. Will make presence felt. Treat warily.

* Tony Gallopin -- Finished in 6th place, last year. Fair competitive performances in the Laurentian classics as a tune-up. It is his 4th place finish in the Brabant Arrow, and particularly his 6th place finish in AGR which suggest he can perform well here. Again proved his endurance ability when 9th in MSR earlier in the season, however he hasn’t won over 200kms since San Sebastian 2013, which is a concern. 60/1 best at SP, and remains there. Some value. Has the ability. Needs to lift. Watch closely. 

1/2* Michael ‘Bling’ Matthews -- 14th last year. U23 WC in 2010, in Geelong Australia. Would be the first U23/EM WC in history. Has been vocal about wanting the leadership of the Australian team, and is being very confident about his chances, however Gerrans has not yielded to Bling and given his past performances Gerrans has been confirmed as co-leader.
          Bling is suggesting he has the characteristics to be a strong GP circuit performer. Very good endurance. Nevertheless, he hasn’t won over 200kms since that climb up to Montecassino in stage 6 of the 2014 Giro. Will be under a lot of pressure. Solid in the market throughout, shortening into 12/1, best. May require more experience. Commands some respect. Take on trust.

1/8* Roman Kreuziger -- First appearance at the Worlds since 2012 when DNF, and a 51st place is his best finish in 2008. Has proven his stamina in the past when winning AGR in 2013 over 252kms. Suited by the finish. Drifted out from his opening 250/1 into 300/1. Fair value. Place claims best with PP 1/4 5 places. Worthy of some consideration.   

Good luck to all,
SP
Report GoBallistic September 27, 2015 2:03 PM BST
Backed Sagan, Gilbert, Bouhanni, Benoot.  Was hoping for rain for Sagan but not looking too likely now
Report marychain1 September 27, 2015 4:57 PM BST
Funny that we've both picked an Italian, a Belgian and a Frenchman among our biggest bets SP. But where you have gone Nibali, Gilbert & Gallopin I've gone Ulissi, Van Avermaet & Alaphillipe. Your three were all on my shortlist but I guess you can't back them all. Looking forward to this. Nobody in the break of any consequence from the look of it.
Report marychain1 September 27, 2015 4:58 PM BST
Shame Betfair have made such a pig's ear of this. As it is I have had £2 on the win market and about £10 on the place market and all my other (proper) bets have been with other bookmakers
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 5:08 PM BST
All we needed to do was tip up Valverde to come third! Laugh
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 5:32 PM BST
8 laps to-go and 2 mins to the break -- not much doing, presently.

Had a fair go on the exchange for a few trades. The Books do alright so they must know something, and only an exchange allows you to run a market like a Bookmaker. No need for a license, and all winnings in Australia are tax free! Of course five places are enticing, but PP started three and only went competitive from yesterday, which whilst I saw coming, was hoping for six places.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 5:52 PM BST
Conor Dunne for Ireland looks like he has something for the cobbled classics in the future -- like the look of him!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 5:55 PM BST
Pace still following an ebb and flow cycle.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:12 PM BST
Boonen playing domestique -- BEL are so strong -- finally some excitement being injected into this race!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:13 PM BST
The peloton get so nervous on Libby Hill don't they -- can't wait for the fireworks!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:18 PM BST
Breakaway dead at 96kms to-go!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:19 PM BST
New break!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:32 PM BST
Pace. Belgium. Injected. How could you not have a BEL rider in your team?
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:39 PM BST
BEL gave us a good taste of what's to come -- destruction mode in the works!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:55 PM BST
4 laps to-go...
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 6:58 PM BST
What VanMarcke did there on that lap has got me a bit worried for the puncheurs such as Gallopin and Gilbert -- the hardmen look like they'll be capable of making solid play.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 7:18 PM BST
3 laps to-go...
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 7:23 PM BST
Didn't even notice that until now -- sorry to say MC but Alaphilippe is out!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 7:24 PM BST
Kreuziger working for Stybar by going on the front like this. Sad
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 7:39 PM BST
Okay, so big gearing on Libby Hill definitely softens up the hardmen, and they're under the pump up North 23rd, so still happy with my picks but am feeling the cobbled classics specialist have enough make it work.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 7:47 PM BST
Nice break -- but looks like it'll come back with the Gorilla on the front of the peloton.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 7:50 PM BST
Breakaway of Boonen, Mollema, Kwiatkowski, Stannard, Viviani, Moreno & Amador has 26s.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 7:53 PM BST
Why is Boonen working here when Viviani isn't? Confused
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:00 PM BST
This now looks decisive!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:07 PM BST
Break back -- course open!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:09 PM BST
ITA and AUS on the front!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:10 PM BST
Okay, so we get our fireworks on the final three climbs inside the final 5kms, looks like.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:16 PM BST
Here we go!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:18 PM BST
Adding more Bling!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:20 PM BST
Sagan home in a blink!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:22 PM BST
Sagan!
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:24 PM BST
Wow -- what a ride -- Sagan -- amazing! He opened a that gap in the blink of an eye!
Report bb66 September 27, 2015 8:24 PM BST
He's done it!!!!!
Report tashkent terror September 27, 2015 8:25 PM BST
BBBBOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM!!!! Nice one sir...quality
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:27 PM BST
I guess that pays for all those podiums -- he will racing against inferior opposition in the classics next season!
Report bigH September 27, 2015 8:27 PM BST
Brilliant by Sagan
Report GoBallistic September 27, 2015 8:30 PM BST
Didn't even need the rain Cool
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:30 PM BST
He has his detractors, and I've said before, but Sagan is excellent for our sport.
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:32 PM BST
1.) Sagan
2.) Bling Matthews
3.) Navardauskas
4.) Kristoff
5.) Valverde
6.) Gerrans
7.) Gallopin
8.) Flowerman
Report SwingingPick September 27, 2015 8:33 PM BST
Well done GB.
Report marychain1 September 27, 2015 8:37 PM BST
Brilliant Sagan!
Report marychain1 September 27, 2015 8:38 PM BST
The coolest man in sport
Report marychain1 September 27, 2015 8:42 PM BST
Bling wondering "how many kisses are we doing?"
Report marychain1 September 27, 2015 8:45 PM BST
Mercifully short national anthem
Report sixtwosix September 28, 2015 7:08 PM BST
Dismal tv coverage , did not even show the placed riders cross the line , pathetic.
Report marychain1 September 30, 2015 10:51 PM BST
Just working on Il Lombardia, last one of the year for me
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com