Cycling
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Stage 19 » St-Jean-de-Maurienne › La Toussuire - Les Sybelles (138k)
A monster Alpine climbing stage
After yesterday's...erm rest day
we have a beast today. To me, this is the stage of the whole Tour. This is an absolutely brutal climbing stage. A brand new km zero Cat 1 climb will ensure the break goes immediately, Croix de Fer from the hardest stage, Col du Mollard and a hug final climb La Toussuire. at As an indication of how much climbing is on this stage - this stage has 4,106m of vertical climbing compared to the next nearest which was stage 12 with 3,522m. This stage has 61.5km of climbing miles. To put that into comparison stages 11, 12, 17 & 20 have only 41-47km. And if you aren't convinced enough that this is a lot of climbing then the finish climb of La Toussuire is the longest summit finish of the race at 2.2km longer than Plateau de Beille.
The race starts in yesterday's finish town of St Jean de Maurienne and goes immediately uphill. The Col du Chaussy is a Cat 1 climb and has never been used in the Tour previously. Some of the descent is part of the well-worn Col de la Madeleine climb. This is 15.4km @ 6.3% which means we are likely to see a large and almost immediate break with the usual contenders (Purito, Fuglsang, Majka, Pauwels etc) in it. We are also going to see the autobus form within the first few km and they will have to work hard all day to stay within the time limit.
Next we have the HC Col de la Croix de Fer, which is all the way back up the Col du Glandon from yesterday and another few kms on top. This climb is 22.4km @ 6.9% and tops at 2067m. The descent is fast and technical and leads straight onto the Cat 2 Col du Mollard, 5.7km @ 6.8% and another long and technical descent before La Toussuire.
La Toussuire is 18km @ 6.1km, which doesn't sound too bad but is a long steep climb at the end of such a day. The worst sections are near the bottom, but the whole of the first half will hurt. The second half is a more uneven so whoever wins this stage will no doubt be comfortable on a climb where the gradient changes. La Toussuire - Les Sybelles has been a finish for stage on 10 previous occasions, most lately in 2012 when Froome paced Wiggins up to the top - or attacked him - depending on who you believe, although Pierre Rolland won the stage that day.
Interesting to see how the stage pans out tomorrow. It looks like teams like Giant, Lotto and IAM will ride to protect their GC men and Sky are quite happy to let other teams ride. I can't see Movistar or Astana riding tomorrow either so I favour a break again. This is a stupidly hard stage though so and out-and-out climber will win this. If the break is staying out it has to be someone who isn't involved in the GC. I'd like Purito here but I don't want someone that might potentially be considering polka. Two men fit the bill here, Rafal Majka 22/1 and Thibault Pinot 40/1.
A monster Alpine climbing stage
After yesterday's...erm rest day
we have a beast today. To me, this is the stage of the whole Tour. This is an absolutely brutal climbing stage. A brand new km zero Cat 1 climb will ensure the break goes immediately, Croix de Fer from the hardest stage, Col du Mollard and a hug final climb La Toussuire. at As an indication of how much climbing is on this stage - this stage has 4,106m of vertical climbing compared to the next nearest which was stage 12 with 3,522m. This stage has 61.5km of climbing miles. To put that into comparison stages 11, 12, 17 & 20 have only 41-47km. And if you aren't convinced enough that this is a lot of climbing then the finish climb of La Toussuire is the longest summit finish of the race at 2.2km longer than Plateau de Beille. The race starts in yesterday's finish town of St Jean de Maurienne and goes immediately uphill. The Col du Chaussy is a Cat 1 climb and has never been used in the Tour previously. Some of the descent is part of the well-worn Col de la Madeleine climb. This is 15.4km @ 6.3% which means we are likely to see a large and almost immediate break with the usual contenders (Purito, Fuglsang, Majka, Pauwels etc) in it. We are also going to see the autobus form within the first few km and they will have to work hard all day to stay within the time limit.
Next we have the HC Col de la Croix de Fer, which is all the way back up the Col du Glandon from yesterday and another few kms on top. This climb is 22.4km @ 6.9% and tops at 2067m. The descent is fast and technical and leads straight onto the Cat 2 Col du Mollard, 5.7km @ 6.8% and another long and technical descent before La Toussuire.
La Toussuire is 18km @ 6.1km, which doesn't sound too bad but is a long steep climb at the end of such a day. The worst sections are near the bottom, but the whole of the first half will hurt. The second half is a more uneven so whoever wins this stage will no doubt be comfortable on a climb where the gradient changes. La Toussuire - Les Sybelles has been a finish for stage on 10 previous occasions, most lately in 2012 when Froome paced Wiggins up to the top - or attacked him - depending on who you believe, although Pierre Rolland won the stage that day.
Interesting to see how the stage pans out tomorrow. It looks like teams like Giant, Lotto and IAM will ride to protect their GC men and Sky are quite happy to let other teams ride. I can't see Movistar or Astana riding tomorrow either so I favour a break again. This is a stupidly hard stage though so and out-and-out climber will win this. If the break is staying out it has to be someone who isn't involved in the GC. I'd like Purito here but I don't want someone that might potentially be considering polka. Two men fit the bill here, Rafal Majka 22/1 and Thibault Pinot 40/1.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 191
|
By:
Its a pity the Croix De Fer isn`t being done from the other side I have ridden most of the big Alpine climbs and imo that is the hardest climb in the Alps it is an absolute b@stard.As Marychain has already said the climb is basically the Glandon in reverse from yesterday with only 3km extra to the top of the Croix De Fer.I really hope Quintana can have a serious pop today but it needs to be done from a long way out no point waiting for the last climb again.Maybe time to try something different instead of letting Sky dictate their pace to keep Froome in his comfort zone on every climb.If I was Moviestars DS I would be tempted to think its now **** or bust time,rip the race to shreds on the first climb even if it means sacrificing Valverdes 3rd spot cos can`t see Quintana winning any other way.On the other hand Moviestar could be happy with 2nd and 3rd on the podium so it will leave it to Contador and Nibali to try and save face a bit.See how easy it is when sat at home without aching legs
 |
|
By:
Good point ekbalko, I think Movistar has never forced the issue because they are protecting Valverde's 3rd position. If Movistar (or the other GC teams) had ridden the mountain stages harder Valverde wouldn't be on the podium. The stages are only as hard as the riders make them.
As I stated earlier the route never really favoured Quintana as their wasn't enough really hard stages with long steep MTF's. The only chance Quintana had of taking back the time on Froome is if his team was really strong and made the mountain stages really hard, they either couldn't do this or more likely didn't want to because they were worried Valverde would suffer and lose his 3rd place. Also with Contador and Nibali being so bad it has been much easier for Sky to control the stages at a nice easy pace. Credit to Froome who has looked the best bike rider in the race, but all the damage was done in a flat and windy stage 2 and of course the superhuman effort on the first mountain top finish of the race on stage 10 where Porte came 2nd. After that it has been plain sailing for Sky and anytime Froome has been tested he has had Thomas still there to pull back any attack. |
|
By:
I thought Movistar would of tried to make this stage really hard and attempt to drop most of Froome's teammates before the final climb. However they had one of their best climbing domestiques in the breakaway yesterday and with Valverde's 3rd place still on the line I think it is less likely now.
I think Sky will definitely go for the win tomorrows on stage 20. I dont know if they'll do too much today. If other teams ride at the front and keep the break in check to protect their top-10 positions on GC maybe we will see Sky and Movistar take over late on the final climb and Froome attempt the win or at least a battle between himself and Movistar. |
|
By:
I'm on Pinot again here too mc. I expected a better price about him however due to his crash on stage 17 and how bad he looked on yesterday's stage. He shouldn't of gone in the break yesterday but did finish 16:12 down on the winner so hopefully he has recovered for an effort today.
|
|
By:
If you like Quintana's chances in the last two mountain stages he is being kept relatively safe for the kom jersey ay 13/1. He would need to be 1st over Croix de Fer, Mollard and win the stage to force a head to head shootout between him and Froome on stage 20 for the jersey. A possible however unlikely scenario.
I think Quintana's best chance to win the race would be to have his team control the break at 1:30-2:00 min and then attempt to bridge across to the break on the Croix de Fer and hope strong riders in the break such as Fuglsang, Rodriguez and some French riders co-operate with him (he will let them take kom points if this happens) to distance the yellow jersey group. Seems unlikely and we'll probably see a strong Sky train with Thomas, Porte, Konig and Poels making it hard for Quintana to get clear. |
|
By:
I agree with your sentiments mc in your preview that this stage should be won by one of the best climbers in the race whether it's from the GC contenders or the breakaway. Pinot and Majka for me as well from the break and I wouldn't totally rule out Rodriguez for the kom or stage either, he saved energy yesterday finishing 14min behind the winner after having a hunger knock on the Glandon.
Bardet, Pauwels and the unlucky Fuglsang are right in the hunt for the kom jersey and will probably want to get in the break to take some points. These 3 along with the inform Rolland who was also in the break yesterday finishing 2nd on the stage will be up against it today with cumulative fatigue of yesterdays efforts being a possible factor. |
|
By:
Valverde is an interesting one for me on this stage. Usually he struggles on multi-climb stages and on long climbs and he did crack a little bit on the Glandon yesterday. However the final climb isn't the hardest and flattens out somewhat in the final 4km. If Quintana and Froome can't gap each other on the Toussire there may be a stalemate allowing Valverde to catch up and he is very fast on the line. I would expect Contador to try an attack Valverde at some point and put him under pressure, an in form Contador could easily crack Valverde on a stage like this, it does seem Contador is regaining some form but will he have enough to force his way onto the podium? G.Thomas could even be on for a podium in Paris if Valverde is dropped.
|
|
By:
Quintana has so far shown no evidence whatsoever that he can make time on Froome in the climbs.
In recent years , we do not see attacks from contenders on climbs until the last climb and the latter part of it. I have no doubt this is because the sport is much cleaner these days. I cannot see Quintana , Valverde and Movistar risking their two podium places , as they have no chance whatsoever of taking a significant chunk out of Froome. The betting suggests Froome or Quintana will win today , but as ever it depends if at least one quality climber who is no threat gets away. I think the latter will happen , perhaps Uran or Sanchez. |
|
By:
Interesting to note that stage 12 of the 2012 Tour featured the same final 74km as today's stage. Pierre Rolland won the stage as the sole survivor from the breakaway with Froome and Pinot 2nd and 3rd 55 seconds behind. Froome attacked on the Toussire in an attempt to win the stage but was called back to help pace Wiggins. Good chance he would of won the stage and he probably would have won the Tour that year had it not been for team orders.
|
|
By:
sixtwosix • July 24, 2015 9:11 AM BST
Quintana has so far shown no evidence whatsoever that he can make time on Froome in the climbs. It does look that way. There has been only one Mountain stage where Froome put any time into his rivals, stage 10 and his teammate Porte finished 2nd. I think people perceive Quintana as being less explosive than Froome but having an edge in endurance (thats what I think) where he would need an extremely hard stage with a very long demanding final climb to capitalise on this perceived advantage. At this stage of the race I'm very surprised that (in-form?)Valverde is less than 1min behind Quintana, to me that either says Quintana doesn't have it or the course hasn't suited the Colombian so far or Movistar have ridden to protect Valverde's 3rd place, or most likely a combination of all three. sixtwosix • July 24, 2015 9:11 AM BST In recent years , we do not see attacks from contenders on climbs until the last climb and the latter part of it. True but riders can still have their team set a high pace before their attacks, thereby putting other contenders under more pressure and keeping the stage win a possibility. We haven't seen much of this at this tour, possibly due to Sky's dominance, Movistar protecting Valverde's 3rd place and other GC contenders performing poorly. |
|
By:
sixtwosix • July 24, 2015 9:11 AM BST
In recent years , we do not see attacks from contenders on climbs until the last climb and the latter part of it. I have no doubt this is because the sport is much cleaner these days. Boring, right? Where is Floyd Landis when we need him |
|
By:
I think the cat.1 climb at km zero is likely to cause a chaotic situation to develop on the road early and throughout as multiple groups form, reform and dissolve -- as some riders are shed and other riders attack to bridge to groups or riders ahead. Essentially, the cat.1 climb at km zero causes early breakaway riders to use a lot of energy early, which even with natural climbers usually causes them to hit the wall on the final climb as the selective SKY-led peloton ramps up the pace and hoovers up the long-range breakaway riders before a likely Froome attack or counter.
** Chris Froome The main discrepancy between the dominating Froome of 2013 and the Froome now, is the amount of stage wins. Froome won three times in 2013, on Ax 3 Domaines and Mont Ventoux, whilst in this year's race he has only won the once on stage 10, however it is important to note that it was on a mountaintop finish, which he will face here today. I would be very surprised if Froome doesn't look to stamp his GC authority with a stage win on a tough stage such as today or tomorrow, and on that basis I think he is a genuine favourite. He opened at 7/2 with PP and 5/2 with betway, and he is currently 10/3 with the Books and 4.3 on here, where it might be prudent to build an initially small position even though he is likely to trade higher IR before a possible shortening should the race develop as suggested. Good luck to all, SP |
|
By:
I'd be very surprised if a break managed to get enough time to take this stage. 138k and climbing straight from the start I'm expecting the GC guys that are further down to try something on the Croix de Fer, I'd say Nibali is the likeliest to go here.
If there's dom's left at La Toussaire I expect Movistar to hit that hard from the bottom. If Quintana doesn't get time here it's basically all over, so I expect them to at least make half an effort. Movistar will know if its an easy race for SKY we are likely to get the SKYtrain and a repeat of stage 10. Good luck all. |
|
By:
Boring, right? Where is Floyd Landis when we need him
It was surreal the day after he was left for dead , his lazarus like ride the following day . |
|
By:
Agree with 'sixtwosix' analysis.
I think the play is to lay Quintana, He has to try and drop Fromme and so far I have seen zero evidence that he can do that in a one to one battle. Sending Valverde up the big climbs and forcing Froome to chase may be Quintana's best hope but Valverde may be suffering, he struggled yesterday and today is much tougher. |
|
By:
Wonder if Quintana will be expected to nursemaid home Valverde today, to guarantee the podiums ?
I do hope not , the memory of Condador & Schlek riding for Armstrong & Frank Scklek instead of racing up Ventoux is possibly the most disappointing stage I can recall.....and I have watched a lot. |
|
By:
I don't think Valverde will arrive in Paris on the podium
|
|
By:
I agree with bb66 today and tomorrow will finish Valverde off.
|
|
By:
Demare nearly two minutes behind after 3kms. Good luck on that one.
|
|
By:
Heavy rain. Good luck descending in that.
|
|
By:
not really a strong feeling today. put a few coins on Fuglsang but will wait inplay for any other bets. Looking out for the likes of Anacona, Rolland, Hejedal and a few others. Was strong feeling of thunderstorms for most of the distance yesterday so will wait to see if they materialise.
|
|
By:
Contador & Valverde attack.
|
|
By:
Peleton gone already, this is going to be carnage.
|
|
By:
this should be a fun watch thats for sure
|
|
By:
This is going to be a real cracker jacker.
|
|
By:
G gone.
|
|
By:
Uran absolutely flying down this. Can't see who the AG2R rider is behind him.
|
|
By:
It's Bardet again. Going to have to start referring to him as one of the best at descending.
|
|
By:
Hard not to like Bardet the way he goes about it
|
|
By:
I wonder if there is a bug going through the Sky team.
|
|
By:
Wouldn't think so, SKY always seem to get weaker by the end of GT's. Too fast too soon for them I expect.
Konig and G look like they are back on. |
|
By:
If Movistar had a brain they should push now
|
|
By:
Good work LottoNL-Jumbo, keeping the gap bridgeable
|
|
By:
G'day gents;
21 rider breakaway, smart play by SKY to regroup in the select peloton behind, hence why the gap went out a bit. Tekman stuck in no-man's land. The break is as follows: Tanel Kangert Bardet Kreuziger Michael Rogers Jose Herrada Malori Gallopin Wellens (crashed) Purito Alberto Losada Uran Rolland Gautier Romain Sicard Kruijswijk Ruben Plaza Dylan van Baarle Nicolas Edet Stef Clement Pantano Stephen Cummings |
|
By:
What are Lotto doing? Their strongest dom is in the break and the rest of them are chasing him down? Bizarre.
|
|
By:
this is one longggg climb
|
|
By:
this is one longggg climb
|
|
By:
You'd think they're protecting their top-10, but it's a bit pessimistic, isn't it. SKY not complaining, though.
|
|
By:
Why not ride. His team won't be of much use once they start climbing. Maybe Gesink feels good and he doesn't want his competitors to get any respite before the next climb.
|