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Stage 19 » St-Jean-de-Maurienne › La Toussuire - Les Sybelles (138k)
A monster Alpine climbing stage
After yesterday's...erm rest day
we have a beast today. To me, this is the stage of the whole Tour. This is an absolutely brutal climbing stage. A brand new km zero Cat 1 climb will ensure the break goes immediately, Croix de Fer from the hardest stage, Col du Mollard and a hug final climb La Toussuire. at As an indication of how much climbing is on this stage - this stage has 4,106m of vertical climbing compared to the next nearest which was stage 12 with 3,522m. This stage has 61.5km of climbing miles. To put that into comparison stages 11, 12, 17 & 20 have only 41-47km. And if you aren't convinced enough that this is a lot of climbing then the finish climb of La Toussuire is the longest summit finish of the race at 2.2km longer than Plateau de Beille.
The race starts in yesterday's finish town of St Jean de Maurienne and goes immediately uphill. The Col du Chaussy is a Cat 1 climb and has never been used in the Tour previously. Some of the descent is part of the well-worn Col de la Madeleine climb. This is 15.4km @ 6.3% which means we are likely to see a large and almost immediate break with the usual contenders (Purito, Fuglsang, Majka, Pauwels etc) in it. We are also going to see the autobus form within the first few km and they will have to work hard all day to stay within the time limit.
Next we have the HC Col de la Croix de Fer, which is all the way back up the Col du Glandon from yesterday and another few kms on top. This climb is 22.4km @ 6.9% and tops at 2067m. The descent is fast and technical and leads straight onto the Cat 2 Col du Mollard, 5.7km @ 6.8% and another long and technical descent before La Toussuire.
La Toussuire is 18km @ 6.1km, which doesn't sound too bad but is a long steep climb at the end of such a day. The worst sections are near the bottom, but the whole of the first half will hurt. The second half is a more uneven so whoever wins this stage will no doubt be comfortable on a climb where the gradient changes. La Toussuire - Les Sybelles has been a finish for stage on 10 previous occasions, most lately in 2012 when Froome paced Wiggins up to the top - or attacked him - depending on who you believe, although Pierre Rolland won the stage that day.
Interesting to see how the stage pans out tomorrow. It looks like teams like Giant, Lotto and IAM will ride to protect their GC men and Sky are quite happy to let other teams ride. I can't see Movistar or Astana riding tomorrow either so I favour a break again. This is a stupidly hard stage though so and out-and-out climber will win this. If the break is staying out it has to be someone who isn't involved in the GC. I'd like Purito here but I don't want someone that might potentially be considering polka. Two men fit the bill here, Rafal Majka 22/1 and Thibault Pinot 40/1.
A monster Alpine climbing stage
After yesterday's...erm rest day
we have a beast today. To me, this is the stage of the whole Tour. This is an absolutely brutal climbing stage. A brand new km zero Cat 1 climb will ensure the break goes immediately, Croix de Fer from the hardest stage, Col du Mollard and a hug final climb La Toussuire. at As an indication of how much climbing is on this stage - this stage has 4,106m of vertical climbing compared to the next nearest which was stage 12 with 3,522m. This stage has 61.5km of climbing miles. To put that into comparison stages 11, 12, 17 & 20 have only 41-47km. And if you aren't convinced enough that this is a lot of climbing then the finish climb of La Toussuire is the longest summit finish of the race at 2.2km longer than Plateau de Beille. The race starts in yesterday's finish town of St Jean de Maurienne and goes immediately uphill. The Col du Chaussy is a Cat 1 climb and has never been used in the Tour previously. Some of the descent is part of the well-worn Col de la Madeleine climb. This is 15.4km @ 6.3% which means we are likely to see a large and almost immediate break with the usual contenders (Purito, Fuglsang, Majka, Pauwels etc) in it. We are also going to see the autobus form within the first few km and they will have to work hard all day to stay within the time limit.
Next we have the HC Col de la Croix de Fer, which is all the way back up the Col du Glandon from yesterday and another few kms on top. This climb is 22.4km @ 6.9% and tops at 2067m. The descent is fast and technical and leads straight onto the Cat 2 Col du Mollard, 5.7km @ 6.8% and another long and technical descent before La Toussuire.
La Toussuire is 18km @ 6.1km, which doesn't sound too bad but is a long steep climb at the end of such a day. The worst sections are near the bottom, but the whole of the first half will hurt. The second half is a more uneven so whoever wins this stage will no doubt be comfortable on a climb where the gradient changes. La Toussuire - Les Sybelles has been a finish for stage on 10 previous occasions, most lately in 2012 when Froome paced Wiggins up to the top - or attacked him - depending on who you believe, although Pierre Rolland won the stage that day.
Interesting to see how the stage pans out tomorrow. It looks like teams like Giant, Lotto and IAM will ride to protect their GC men and Sky are quite happy to let other teams ride. I can't see Movistar or Astana riding tomorrow either so I favour a break again. This is a stupidly hard stage though so and out-and-out climber will win this. If the break is staying out it has to be someone who isn't involved in the GC. I'd like Purito here but I don't want someone that might potentially be considering polka. Two men fit the bill here, Rafal Majka 22/1 and Thibault Pinot 40/1.
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Market showing too much faith in Nibali, I make him 3.5 at best so around 2.0 he is a big lay.
Jul 24, 2015 -- 9:16AM, SwingingPick wrote:
He nearly went odds-on there, Nibali.
Not really
Not sure what Valverde is doing? Is Quintana struggling to keep the wheel?
Quintana looks great, think I'm going to get a monster payout here.
Nibali will look to consolidate on the Mollard, it's 5.7kms at 6.8%, and if he keeps any sort of gap he will increase it on the long descent. Will need Rolland on the climb though, I believe. Has he looked like a beast on the climbs in this race? No. Can he win from here on good sensations? Yes. Will he?
Probably if Nibali blows past Rolland than he is on good sensations and thinks he doesn't need Rolland's assistance -- makes him a more dangerous proposition -- but if he has to bury-mode on the final climb it might come back to hurt him in not using Rolland's assistance earlier. Locked in at 50 secs for Nibali, so if he is relying on the descent, than that's an issue, also. Nothing is jumping out, is it?
Meanwhile Quintana has been in an armchair and will likely drop the hammer on the final climb. But for what? 2nd or 3rd place?
Class being 7+ min down so no one chases..still good effort
If Froome or Rolland don't win this then I've made a packet.
Bardet would be halfway across to Nibali/Rolland if it wasn't for this mechanical.
Final climb 18kms at 6.1% -- that's a lot of climbing.
Nibali on good sensations -- defending Tour champion is looking to defend on at least one significant mountain stage. Small advantage for him, now. Just gone odds-on.
Don't think Nibali has enough if the GC boys go. Depends how good he is I guess though.
Bardet back in the group after a bike change.
Bardet back in the group after a bike change.
1.50 secs for Nibali and Rolland on the start of the final 18 km climb.
Something dodgy going on at Tinkoff with these bike changes!
That was a shark-mode Nibali -- still good sensations -- unlikely to hit the wall -- will the GC men smash it? They need to!
Got loads odds against after that move, layers don't know Nibali.
Teams riding to protect 9th on the GC is one of the most annoying things about the mountain stages at the end of Grand Tours
Looks like Quintana waiting to take another second out of Froome.
ANybody told him race over on Sunday
ANybody told him race over on Sunday
Jul 24, 2015 -- 10:14AM, geoff m wrote:
Looks like Quintana waiting to take another second out of Froome.ANybody told him race over on Sunday
Long as he doesn't touch my massive Nibali winnings I don't care!
Jul 24, 2015 -- 10:18AM, SwingingPick wrote:
Peloton just tempo here -- they may all be tired!
same as every stage so far
They still haven't caught Rolland and he is badly damaged -- Majka injecting some pace now, but it may be too late!
Nibali
Rolland @ 1'00
Yellow @ 2'20
Majka pacing yellow group, Scarponi dropping away
Rolland @ 1'00
Yellow @ 2'20
Majka pacing yellow group, Scarponi dropping away
Cheers MC. 
Halfway up and Nibali still looks solid, and Rolland still not caught, only a mechanical sees Nibali lose this stage.
Its a shame Nibali was so bad early in the race
he looks to be one of the strongest right now
he looks to be one of the strongest right now
Nibali looks incredible, 3.0 when he made his move, people underestimated him, thankfully I didn't.
GC podium for The Shark is what now matters, don't even think he wants the stage as much as that -- requires at least another minute on the line, though.
Jul 24, 2015 -- 10:29AM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:
Nibali looks incredible, 3.0 when he made his move, people underestimated him, thankfully I didn't.
Nibali was active right from the gun. Got him at 20's.
Astana working on the front on the Croix de Fer was a dead give away, he was still at 10's
Quintana still perfectly poised for that one sec on Froome.
It makes a big difference in betting to be able to watch the stage right from the very start imo
Great work nugget. As I always say it's great to just be at the party than not turn up at all! Great bet nugget 
Inattention by Froome, but Quintana having a hard time consolidating -- Froome looks tough even on a day where he looks tired.
I feel sorry for the people who aren't watching on tv and have to rely on swingingpicks updates
Froome hurting now, that's a surprise, didn't expect that.
Froome hates that big gear when it flattens out after short cadence for long -- back firing good again!
Surprising Quintana was able to take out that much time from Froome in such a short distance on relatively easy gradients
Quintana needed more there. Why didn't he go earlier if he could that?
If you've been paying attention you would know Movistar are riding for 2nd and 3rd
Jul 24, 2015 -- 10:52AM, marychain1 wrote:
Somebody tell Kirby there are no time bonuses
there are time bonuses
Does anyone know if the stage is televised from the start again tomorrow?
Great Ride By Nibs ,Thought Roman a little unlucky to get a Mechanical when on the Chase..
Attack again tomorrow with 5 k to go and get 30 seconds back .....only need 5 more stages of that to win !
Nothing like aggressive enough to trouble Froome seriously.
Nothing like aggressive enough to trouble Froome seriously.
Strange tactics from Movistar again indeed but then again they've been consistent.
Movistar are going to have to kill their doms tomorrow on the Croix de Fer to get rid of SKY and nail the breakaway. SKY won't ride for Froome to win the stage tomorrow after today.
The final climb is better for Quintana tomorrow but the shorter stage and fewer total climbing meters favours Froome. The way the race has gone though somebody will attack on the descent and win the stage.
It hasn't really mattered but trust me there are time bonuses
Jul 24, 2015 -- 11:34AM, CJ70 wrote:
Movistar are going to have to kill their doms tomorrow on the Croix de Fer to get rid of SKY and nail the breakaway. SKY won't ride for Froome to win the stage tomorrow after today.
Scarponi dropped most of them today for Nibali by himself, so if those two recover there is that. I assume Nibali will be aiming for the podium now. It probably won't matter anyway, I think Froome could ride the stage without teammates and still win the GC comfortably.
Looking at the top 5 now , 3 grizzled veterans in the list plus Froome with Quintana the only young rider , but also very experienced.
No sign of the young pretenders breaking into the elite possible winners yet , high profile stage wins yes , overall winners no .
No sign of the young pretenders breaking into the elite possible winners yet , high profile stage wins yes , overall winners no .
Be interesting to see if Nibali can make up a minute or more on Contador
That's the one 
he will have to do it on the climb this time the descent of the Croix de Fer is too far out and the valley too long
he will have to do it on the climb this time the descent of the Croix de Fer is too far out and the valley too long
Can't see anyone going on the descent tomorrow unless they can join up with the break. Looks like a straight fight up Alpe.
Movistar might have to rely on other teams defending their top-10 gc positions again if they want to win the stage.
If a break goes with no riders who are a threat to the riders in the top-10, who is going to chase the break?
Movistar probably wont push the pace because they'll be worried about Nibali catching Valverde for 3rd.
If a break goes with no riders who are a threat to the riders in the top-10, who is going to chase the break?
Movistar probably wont push the pace because they'll be worried about Nibali catching Valverde for 3rd.
Froome sprinted for kom points today on the croix de fer, even after having his mechanical. Maybe SKY will chase the break tomorrow or were they put off by what happened on the final climb?
Bardet leads the kom and is in 9th overall. He probably needs to get in a break that goes all the way if he is to win the kom jersey. Lotto, IAM and Trek will probably chase Bardet to defend there top-10 positions and Sky might give a hand to make sure Froome gets the kom jersey. Breakaway doesn't look that likely if Bardet gets in the break.
Actually if Bardet can get in the breakaway and get maximum points on the first climb (and Froome scores no points) and then get 5th at the finish like he did today he will win the kom jersey. Ag2r will probably need there whole team in the breakaway however.
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