*GIRO D'ITALIA* 9th May to 31st May - Preview

If anyone wants the roadbook try this link - but its an 80gb download
https://www.wetransfer.com/downloads/daf23b6f094506571ed3f017d8108f612015042...

FAVOURITES
Contador 10/11
Richie Porte 5/2
Rigoberto Uran 8/1
Fabio Aru 11/1
Domenico Pozzovivo 18/1
Ilnur Zakarin 50/1
Leopold Konig 66/1
Roman Kreuziger 80/1
Michele Scarponi 80/1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 100/1
Ryder Hesjedal 100/1

Can see Orica winning the TTT, and Bling adding another leaders jersey to the collection by either winning or a having prominent finish on Stage 2 and then keeping it until at least Stage 5 and possibly Stage 8.

No Europcar
No Colombian team

This looks like Contadors to lose but @ 4/6 - 10/11 he is unbackable especially after all the crashes not just this year but in recent GC races.

I am the first to admit that i have never been Richie Porte's biggest fan , mainly because his GC record is appalling, but he has trimmed down over the winter and is in excellent form. Add to this he has an extremely strong team (probably the strongest Sky have ever put out) and he will never have a better chance of success than this race.

Does this leave me with trying to find an outsider to back e/w hoping to snatch 3rd place, there is not much appeal in that.

This makes the outright market quite unappealing.

Any suggestions anyone please ?

I feel exactly the same way. I can't see Porte or Uran beating him but he's not to be backed in a 3-week stage race at odds on (although at least in Italy there should be less chance of him getting popped). It would take something astonishing for someone outside those three to win, someone would have to find a level of form they haven't yet displayed AND maintain it for three weeks. Perhaps if anyone is going to do that then Zakarin could be that man, but even at 40/1 it doesn't appeal much.

Having looked over the stages one by one over this bank holiday weekend, it should be amazing week. The amount of hill-top towns, lakeside paradises and ski resorts we visit is astonshing. It will be an amazing race, but with the prices as they are it is very difficult to find a bet for outright purposes - at least in GC. I'm awaiting the other jersey markets and rider specials with interest.

good range of markets now available on PP

Are you guys for real? BERTIE will absolutely kill Porte in the mountains. BERTIE is Frankel in here. Porte always has St least one shocking day in grand tours

*** Richie Porte Was the big SKY hope for this in 2014, however injury and illness conspired against him and he was forced to pull out of both Paris-Nice and the Giro, and failed to finish Tirreno-Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour de Romandie.
        Had what could only be described as a monumental off-season, stripping down whilst building strength through a combination of training and nutrition. And the results speak for themselves. First-up this season, won the Nationals in the ITT, and finished in 22nd place in the road race, before winning the queen stage up Willunga Hill in the Tour Down Under, however he lost the GC by 2 secs when Rohan Dennis worked to the line in surprising fashion. One week later he rode the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race for a 20th place finish. Next up, and on the European continent, finished 4th in the Algarve, won Paris-Nice, won Catalunya, and last start won Trentino in a perfect tune-up for this.
        Strong credentials as he looks fit, is in career-best form, has a strong team assembled in support, and is proven over three weeks of racing. 11/4 W/O. Will be in it for a very long way. Makes very strong appeal. The one to beat.

** Alberto Contador Veteran campaigner and class rider who is not only hoping to win this race, but will be attempting to also win the Tour later, in the hope of performing the elusive Giro-Tour double, and then perhaps even the very rare Triple Crown. Contador has already achieved the little easier Giro and Velta double in 2008. The last rider to do the Giro and Tour double was Marco Pantani in 1998, which came five years after Miguel Indurain did it back-to-back, so it can go off regularly.
        This season, first up in Andalucia he got skewered by Froome up to Alto de Allanadas by 29 secs after beating him by 19 secs in the previous stage, to ultimately go down to Froome by only 2 secs on GC. Then in Tirreno-Adriatico, he struggled both with the cold and with the fast pace as his team and SKY challenged each other on the Terminillo queen stage, whereupon he finished in 5th place, some 55 secs behind, and would also finish in 5th place on GC. Next finished in 4th place last start in Catalunya with uninspiring riding up until stage 5 where he crashed hard in the final 3kms, however he suffered only superficial injuries and managed to finish the stage and complete the race.
        Comes to the start line as the short-priced favourite, perhaps more by default than a highly impressive season, so he has some work to do and will need to prove he is up to this early on, however he has a crack outfit at his disposal and loads of experience. 1/1 W/O as a banker proposition. Racing against inferior opposition. Must be respected. Hold safe.

1/4* Rigoberto Uran Finished 2nd over this trip last time out, which included a surprising but excellent win in the ITT stage 12. 2nd on GC in 2013, also. Is having a far better season coming into this than last year, with a 5th place finish last start in Romandie, a 5th in Catalunya before that, and a 3rd in Tirreno-Adriatico. He also rode well in Strade Bianche for a 7th place finish, which might be important given the tricky gravel road conditions on the climb up to Sestriere for the queen stage. Also had a win when first-up in the Colombian Nationals ITT, followed by a 4th place finish in the road race.
        He doesn't have the strongest team, however he is a consistent and experienced campaigner and the parcours suits. If he can dictate terms early, he may generate the necessary luck required to finally go one place better and take this out. 8/1 W/O. One of the main contenders. Watch closely.

Domenico Pozzovivo Wily Italian veteran with a sold record here, albeit off the podium: 5th last year, 10th in 2013, and 8th in 2012. This season: 6th Tour Down Under, 8th Tirreno-Adriatico, 3rd Catalunya, 7th Trentino, and finished with the 10-man selection when 8th in LBL, last start.
        Will likely improve with more racing, and may look like the winner at some point, however his winning instincts are somewhat questionable and a podium result is more likely. 25/1. Hard to have. Others have stronger claims. Discount.

Fabio Aru Promising 24yo rider from Italy who got himself onto the podium last year over this trip, which was set up by an excellent win in stage 15 up to Montecampione, proving his climbing credentials. His form this season is highly suspect coming into this after suffering a stomach virus which resulted in having to take a course antibiotics, and which then had a domino effect in preventing him from taking the start line in Giro del Trentino and Romandie. Only raced twice before that for a 6th place finish last start in Catalunya, and a 39th in Paris-Nice before that.
        He showed last year that he can work his way into the race in a conservative fashion, however the parcours is not as conducive to riders requiring building form scenario as last year. Moreover, and to a lesser extent, he may now be susceptible to more illness. 11/1. Has claims. Take on trust.

Ilnur Zakarin 25yo Russian making his Grand Tour debut. Closer scrutiny comes after he sounded his potential when riding in elite company last start in Romandie, where he won on GC. Struck out in impressive fashion when going in pursuit of Pinot on the penultimate and queen stage up to Champex-Lac, finishing in 2nd place. Then still had it all before him on the final stage, however he rode heroically in the ITT, changing his bike mid-race to finish in 3rd place.
        He is not knew to riding in Italy, however he is an unknown proposition over three weeks of racing and will likely be using this race as good experience. 28/1. Hard to have at this stage. Wait to see.

Good luck to all,
SP

Firstly, thanks MC for the thread-starter -- excellent work!

Was hoping to get my post up much earlier in order to stimulate more discussion, however other matters made demands on my time, and I see that CM, and MC in agreement, have both identified the key problem with the GC market in any case, and I really don't have much more to add except that it could still be a good trading market on here. While there are 5-6 key stages, there are tough climbing stages interspersed throughout the three weeks, which might very-well generate the surprises necessary to spook the market enough and often enough for some value hunting to be had.

Am now making deeper and expansive study of the side markets.

Cheers,
SP

Best Market seems to be the Mountains, be nice to know your thoughts SP

Perhaps as expected the Racing Post selection this morning (from Nick Pulford) is 2pts win Contador @ Evs on the outright market

Points jerseys and mountain jerseys are tricky markets to call. I'm leaving the mountains comp alone but you'd probably want someone from a team without a GC rider and possibly someone who could lose time straight from the TTT. I've had a bet in the points comp though.

Points
There are three different types of stages, all of which get different amount of points allocated.

Flat stages (top 20 riders score points) = Stages 2, 6, 7, 10, 13, 17 and 21
Stage winner = 50 points
2nd 40 pts
3rd 34 pts
then 28, 25, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Also in intermediate sprints top 10 get points (20 for winner etc)

Medium Mountain stages (top 15 riders score points) = Stages 1, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12 and 18
Stage winner = 22 points
2nd = 20 pts
3rd = 18 pts
then 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Also in intermediate sprints top 8 riders get points (10 for winner etc)

Mountain stages (top 10 riders score points) = Stages 8, 9, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20
Stage winner = 15 points
2nd = 12 pts
3rd = 9 pts
then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Also in intermediate sprints top 6 riders get points (8 for winner etc)

The way I see it Bling would be the absolutely nailed on winner of this category if he completed the race because he can get to a load of finishes that the other sprinters like Greipel cannot. I think we can rule out the climbers this year because they won't pick up too many points in the stages where the big points are on offer. People like Modolo and Mezgec are likely to sty the course and could fight for both the flat stages and the more hilly ones. Someone else that falls into that category is JJ Lobato and I've chanced him at 12/1 win only with PP.

The Points Classification competition has been won by outright sprinters for the last two editions, however in those editions the race didn't have a Peter Sagan-type of rider. And this year it does.

** Michael 'Bling' Matthews Has worked on his style over the past few years after appearing on the scene as a contending rider in his first year with OGE in 2013 when he was 22yo, and as with young riders who have a malleable physique it takes some time to develop their best or most natural characteristics. It is now perfectly clear, especially after his rides this season in the Brabant Arrow and AGR, and even earlier in Paris-Nice where he won Green, that he has settled on being a Peter Sagan-type of rider -- that is to say he is capable of sprinting with the outright sprinters, but prefers a ramp or two into the finish (or a mid-cat climb placed in a strategic point on the stage) which might shed some of the outright sprinters or sting their legs enough to retard their kicks for the line a bit.
        Reports are that Andre 'Gorilla' Greipel is motivated to win Green Jersey, however following MC's earlier analysis, I believe Bling is the worthy pick on account of his ability to claim both those TV (Traguardo Volante) or Intermediate Sprints, in addition to the points on offer by being involved in the bunch sprints; and whilst he has stated that his focus is strictly on stage wins, it appears that he was playing down his chances for the Green Jersey on account of the team not having then as yet secured the opening they would have planned in winning the TTT. The mood in the team would have now changed dramatically after their convincing team win, and it could very-well be that by hunting stage wins Matthews builds a good lead in this competition by claiming TVs, whilst still being involved in the sprints on the flat stages enough to pick up those points also.
        It was interesting to hear him show his enthusiasm for the Green Jersey competition being his main target in what will be his TdF debut later, however he has a perfect opportunity to attempt to win Green here, and with the good energy in the team, it is logical to think this will now become a target for him going into Milan. Confirmation for this will come just after the feed zone or rifornimento in tomorrow's 177km stage 2, where there are two TVs back-to-back, and since OGE will be on the front with the Pink Jersey, it will likely be Bling being launched for the lines with points.
        Makes appeal for his expansive characteristics advantage over the outright sprinters. Top showing expected. Worthy of close consideration. 5/1 W/O.

The KOM competition is certainly one market which is difficult to get right at ante-post, and it's not one which I've had good success with in the past, and I cannot get involved with the amount of questions floating around with no answers.

Good luck to all,
SP

The thing that is putting me off Bling is that he is likely not to complete the race, and with green jersey being his main focus he won't try and win the red points jersey here because he'll be prepping for the Tour.

Why wouldn't he complete the race though, MC?

Well there's a general theory that it is very hard to maintain peak form over two Grand Tours and there isn't enough time to come down and come back up again in between either. Not saying I necessarily agree with it, and obviously Bertie is trying for the double this year, but some teams definitely do go by that theory. If you remember last year Bling won the TTT, a stage and wore the leader's jersey in the Giro before dropping out after stage 10. He wasn't even aiming at the Tour last year either so it might make sense to do the same this year if his goal is the green jersey in the Tour.

Sure I read that was the plan somewhere anyway

Not part of any plan I've come across MC, in fact I think you'll recall that Bling only withdrew from the Giro last year in order to recover from his crash in stage 9. Actually, he was attempting the TdF last year, it was supposed to be his debut, hence why the team thought he might benefit from a longer recovery since OGE is such a team that do definitely go by that theory you've mentioned. Nevertheless, from what I understand he is definitely riding this race into Milan, unless he experiences a crash or fatigue of such a significant note that there's no point in flogging him for little to no good outcome ahead of being included in the squad for the TdF. I really think he is worth a bet, and you've set a good foundation of analysis for the advantage his expansive characteristics will provide. As I said, we'll see him winning the TVs tomorrow and that'll be confirmation, I believe.

I don't think Matthews would abandon if, near the end of the 2nd week, he stood a good chance of winning the Points jersey.

I thought faster sprinters than Matthews would also be after Intermediate sprint points (if a reasonable amount of points are left).

That's probably correct. Reading back over a couple of interviews he gave during and after the spring classics it seems the plan is stage wins and then see how the points competition lies. He seems to be a few worries about getting over some of the big mountains though and seems to be saying he'll get as far as he can and consider the points jersey on its merits as the race develops.

The Australian sports media is often so parochial, that we get really intimate accounts from within teams with interviews and the like, and I've noticed that not all of it makes it to the wider sporting community, so perhaps what I'm seeing is a little more accurate, but he is pretty-much committed to the Giro into Milan, and we'll see today what Green looks like in the TVs.

Hats off MC with all the threads and all the great work you have put in here, much appreciated.

So far my only bets on the outright are Landa at 7/2 to finish top 10, he is obviously here as support for Aru firstly but is riding very well himself. A rider I have liked for a hile, he is a very strong climber, and he looked strong at Trentino although obviously 2nd best to Porte, and if Aru feels any effects of his stomach bug later in the race he could become the team leader, but whatever he should be with Aru most of the way on all the stages and that should be enough to comfortably place him inside the top 10.

And as mentioned above by MC and SP i think Matthews is strong bet for the pints jersey so 5/1 taken there.

I do think Porte will run Contador very close at the least, though  2/1 was not big enough for me to play, but i am now tempted as he has drifted to 3/1 after yesterday?? though i hoped he mmay have even drifted further!
Sky were very disappointing yesterday no hiding from that and it was a bad result for them, but it isn't a disaster and like MC says it could help make this week a lot more exciting as sky will now  likely be very attacking.

Looking forward to a really good 3 weeks, looks like every stage should have something to offer, will be great viewing.

Gl all.

Stage 2 - not much movement of note from a GC point of view. The things of note I guess were that Tinkoff Saxo were very prominent at the front whenever they thought there was a potential moment of danger, and kept Bertie out of trouble. They drilled the pace on the front through the two laps of Genoa until 3km to go and with all the crashes happening in behind it seems like a smart move. I guess the only concern might be that they did a fair amount of work and if they keep that up for the whole race they could suffer by week three. The other thing to note was the Peter Serry has abandoned for Etixx after that crash near the end and that is a massive loss for Rigoberto Uran, his team was already weak enough and that means he loses valuable support on the climbs.

Richie Porte's motorhome, nice for him but good for team morale later in the race?

Richie Porte's motorhome, nice for him but good for team morale later in the race?

also surprised by the amount of work Tinkoff is putting into it, had expected we won't see much from them for 2 weeks

At the conclusion of a surprising stage 4, and prior to stage 5 with it's testing summit finish:

-- AST team look big around Aru, but with that pressing nature they are also perhaps heaping significant pressure on his 24yo shoulders. I don't think we've as yet witnessed how he might react to such pressure when it comes, and it will at some point.

-- TCS are flexing their power and strength, and showing an almost clinical commitment to Contador's GC aspirations.

I echo bb66 with my surprise of TCS doing so much work so early, but also that AST are willing to do the same. So, in a way, both teams are on a similar footing with their energy deficits going forward.

Bertie	Virtual GC Leader
Aru	+ .06
Porte	+ .20
Uran	+ .54
JVDB	+ .64

Am I missing anyone?

Cheers,
SP

In relation to the motorhome for Porte -- good morale within teams is definitely important in GTs, and if his teammates feel like he is segregated from them off the road, but expecting total commitment from them right beside him on the road than that surely can't be good for morale -- definitely worth keeping a look for signs in relation to how they appear as comrades.

Also worth noting that Meersman abandoned today, another big loss for Uran further and above the time lost today

Porte looks very good, very impressed with his ride into Abetone with Bertie and Aru. If he rides as conservatively as possible this weekend, he appears like he might harden into a very strong force by the weekend after and third week. May be prudent to value hunt for bids to increase stakes on Porte with Bertie as banker to balance those backs.

Does Porte even need his team? I don't think he does!

End of stage 5:

Contador	GC leader.
Aru	+ .02
Porte	+ .20

Barring crashes, illness, or critical point mechanical failures, some variation of this podium appears compelling for the podium in Milan, at this early point of the race.

what does +.02 and +.20 mean, .02 and .2 of what, a minute of what? or .02 and .20 seconds?

SwingingPick
"Does Porte even need his team? I don't think he does!"

Yeah sure, Sky should withdraw all his teammates from the Giro immediately and save on hotel and maintenance cost.  It's in the bag.

At the conclusion of stage 8, the GC contenders finish together: Aru failed. Contador gained a 2 sec Intermediate bonus, but also exposed himself as foxing in this race in regard to his "dislocated" shoulder behind the presentation stage, prior to being awarded the Pink Jersey. Porte...strong...conservative...patient...

Contador	GC Leader
Aru	+ :04 secs
Porte	+ :22 secs
Uran	+ 1:24 secs

Uran coming good? Back in with a chance of the podium after that ride.

What do you remember, if anything, from the recent Romandie ride, nugget?

Whose ride in particular? What I remember from Romandie, after backing Zakarin when he finished 2nd behind Pinot at Champax-lac(only watched the last 5-10km), I backed him to win the overall and the final TT.  Despite having to change bikes during the TT he only finished 13secs behind Tony Martin and won the overall.  I also backed Kung when he won, that was nice.  Albasini was good and Alaphilippe was too.  It was rainy (so Froome had an excuse).
Why?

Uran is a tough competitor and will be looking to make the long tt count but regarding a podium finish if you were looking at someone outside the big 3 I'd go with Landa, he seems to be climbing strongly.  He'll need to put time into Uran on the MTF's in the final week and he will also need one of the big 3 to falter however.  For that reason I'll probably look to back him for a stage win instead.

You remember a lot!

At the conclusion of stage 9, the GC contenders finish together, sort of. Aru, undoubtedly left feeling forlorn after yesterday's failure, throws it down with a strong attack which caused the GC contenders chase selection, and he then organized the cooperation between them, in order to distance Uran, who is perceived to have an advantage in the ITT over Aru. It worked, and into the line Aru kicked to gain back a second over Contador. It was good, confident riding, but again AST showed how expansive they are, with Landa beside Aru providing assistance initially, and Tiralongo getting stage glory with a gutsy ride to bridge to long-range solo leader Slagter, although it appears AST are using a lot of matches, and that might be considered a factor in the third week.

It almost appears like AST are riding in a similar exuberance to that of their confident but inexperienced captain, Aru. Conversely, Contador is riding like the foxing old-hand campaigner with an equally clinical TCS, whilst Porte is playing the patient tortoise, and his team may be grouping. It's all quite finely poised, so to see Contaodr up on the boards as odds-on, may ultimately be correct, but at this point where the race is not even at the halfway point, it appears greedy and laughable.

Contador	GC Leader
Aru	+ .03   secs
Porte	+ .22
Uran	+  2.10

Rest day, next.

Stage 10 came after the Rest Day, and at the conclusion of it there are some changes in the GC, on account of Porte suffering a puncture with 5 kms to go. With a nice tailwind the peloton were travelling swiftly at about 60 kms/hr, and even thought Porte had his team around him, and even fellow countryman Bling offered assistance, he lost significant time to the GC contenders.

Contador	GC Leader
Aru	+ .03  secs
Landa	+ .46
Porte	+ 1.09

I was quite confident that .22 secs behind was not at all a problem for Porte going into the ITT, I even thought he could afford to have it at up to .30 secs, however now it's going to be much harder for him to make it back. Is Porte as good as Quintana? No. It's not over though, not at all, but he will need to do something very special, something which would define his career as a top class rider if he succeeds.

Wow has gone from bad to worse for Richie Porte who has now also been hit with a 2 min time penalty putting him 3m 9sec down in 12 th place on GC!!
He was said to have taken a wheel from Simon Clarke of OGE and this contravenes uci rules! So both riders were hit with the time  penalty.
Surely they should all know this? and why couldn't one of his own team mates have given him a wheel?? Seems ludicrous that he couldnt get a wheel or bike from another sky rider! Today  has shown there is obviously a close link between Sky/Porte and the Aussies at OGE as not only did they give him a wheel but Matthews did his best to help pace him back.
The team say they will now fight harder, and havent given up on the Gc, but there is no way he is getting 3 mins back on Contador/ Aru/ Landa.
Gutted for Porte and for the race as it was boiling up in to a great 3 way fight and now after today we are left with just the 2 realistic contenders, such a shame.

Obviously a blow but I wouldn't completely rule Porte out here yet. He is well capable of making up a lot of time in the ITT on both these riders (although the way Astana are riding you wouldn't rule out Aru doing the TT of his life and them getting 6 riders in the top 10). Also, I feel that Porte has been the most conservative rider of the three so far so has probably got the most left. Sky have not done anywhere near as much work as Tinkoff and Astana either, who knows how isolated the other two could be coming into week 3?

I didn't see any pictures of him changing a wheel, maybe tightening something on his bike and a push.  Hasty decision by the officials.  Just saw the announcemt to the media and the official seemed delighted.  Remember when Quintana passed under the red flag conditions last year on a descent on the snow stage, basically won the giro right there and didn't get DQed or penalised.  I also see people saying Contador took his helmet off during the race the other day as well.

Richie can still do it.  Alberto's arm might fall off and Aru could get booted for a dodgy passport.

bad weather will come into play over the rest of the week

I'm not sure the market was aware of the huge time gaps on offer in the stage 14 ITT, so the way I was looking at it, is that there may have been some slight panic if Porte was to have had the strong ride he is expected to have against the clock, and there may have been some value to be had, however unless Contador suffers a real injury through a crash, or experiences a mechanical in a similar situation as Porte did yesterday -- now with the 2 min penalty against Porte, Contador has got this race won even though Porte may ride well in the ITT. Porte was the only genuine contender who might have stolen this race from him, and he is just too far back now with the penalty added. Contador will make time on Aru in the ITT, stretching his lead, and even though Aru may find an opportunity to gap Contador in the Dolomites, which will be a big ask, it won't be enough to get the lead off him, I don't believe. Since there is nobody else in the picture, Contador has got this, barring any unforeseen injury or mechanical scenarios.

The weather is always a factor, however unless Contador crashes or suffers an untimely mechanical, it'll be the same of each rider and should not have a great influencing effect.

What's your book looking like mate, did you manage to get out of your position against Bertie?

No mate, he was way too short, and I thought that -- under previous time gaps -- there would be far better opportunities to recover Bertie into the original Bank position during the ITT, so I let the post shoulder injury lays remain as red. Unless the unthinkable happens, I won't recover my losses on Bertie and will take my first GT GC market loss in five years. Now, I just need to chip away with the stage betting bank to recover, and try and finish ahead or even.

Unbelievable mistake from Porte but Contador was probably going to win anyway.

paid out by VC as well

Halfway stage with the Dolomites and a beast of an ITT still to come and Bertie is 3/10 (lay). Just an amazing price, absolutely amazing, and if anyone is backing Contador to win at these prices they're some kind of amazing!

He wins unless he crashes imo. I'm not backing at the price but I just can't see who beats him. The two people I could possibly see taking time off him in the mountains Uran and Porte have already lost loads of time and Uran who has started strongly and has a fantastic team has started to show signs of weakness as well. I'd rather lay than back at that price, but it would be without knowing exactly who was running for me and hoping for unexpected events in week 2-3. I'd be more interested in him not keeping the jersey all the way to Milan.

Well, on a short, completely flat stage, where nothing was expected to happen, we again got a GC shake-up, with crash a few hundred metres outside 3 kms to go, the safe zone, Contador came down and lost time and the Pink jersey to Aru. Porte, apparently also involved in the crash, lost time and all hope of winning the race, and will be looking for a podium place now only.

Aru	GC Leader
Contador	+.19  secs

I think Aru would need about an additional minute or even two, going into tomorrow's ITT to hold onto the Pink jersey.

Earlier on, when I asked nugget what we learned in Romandie -- it is clear that what we should all have remembered is that there is no place to hide in the ITT. I mean, in Romandie Froome was yo-yo-ing like a court jester on the back of the peloton on the climbing stages and keeping in touch when things eased up in front. Come the ITT, he had no place to hide against the clock and he was thoroughly found out as the suspect out-of-form rider he was showing he was on the climbs that preceded it.

I therefore think that Alberto Contador might have quite a poor ITT, even though we know he is quite strong in the discipline. Initially, I was convinced he would blow up over this course because of the tricky first part being so flat and perhaps he would push himself too hard, and then pay for it at the tough climbing parts closer to the finish. Now, I'm not entirely confident he'll blow up now, but I am still convinced he will perform poorly.

He has come to the front here and there so far in the Giro, but really an in-form Contador would have blitzed some of those parts or opportunities where he flexed his muscles thus far, and so imo it's almost like he has been bluffing -- doing only as much as required to suggest he is the in-form Bertie who will win this Giro easily. Then add the fact that he thought he needed to fox with his "injured" shoulder to gain an advantage by forcing the GC contenders to attack, and I would suggest that we see that there are weaknesses in his condition, both physically and mentally.

In the ITT, weaknesses are exacerbated and since I am convinced he is weak than I think we may seem him struggle. Having said that, there is no one close-enough to him to take advantage of the possible time gains on offer, and then hold their own in the Dolomites. So, it looks like Contador may get away with it, but I'll feel like my analysis has been solid in this Giro (even though I'm likely going to lose on Contador) if Contador flops in the ITT tomorrow.

You learned there is no place to hide in a TT from the Romandie TT?

Regarding Contador, I can't remember the last time he did a bad TT over a long distance in a grand tour.  Do you think because Aru will lose minutes Contador will do a bad TT?

nugget, we're all here to reach consensus and achieve profitable outcomes! I understand you feel you look like a bit of fool after you provided your self-important reply earlier, but that is no reason to subject the forum to your negative derailment attempts at reaching a solid foundation of understanding for how the GC men will come out of the ITT.

I wish the market would remember what you do about Contador so that he would be in the 5/2 range of my laying him heavily. As it is, at 8/1 or thereabouts, I'm not willing to take him on -- actually looks like good value, but I am still convinced he will perform poorly.

sorry swinging but contador has not been in trouble all race bar from crashes with porte and uran too far behind he knows that even a par ride today will put him well in control of the race no need for him to attack given the mistakes and poor show of others whilst he may not win today top 5 would be good enough cant see a poor ride myself

SwingingPick

"nugget, we're all here to reach consensus"...


So we should all come to the consensus that Contador will perform poorly in the time trial.  If you disagree you're trying to negatively derail peoples understanding.

I'm thinking along the same lines as peter, Contador will ride within himself and do what he needs to do therefore less chance of him blowing up.  Contador still has all the hard mountain stages in this giro and also the TdF to think about.

I actually hope you're right about Contador SP.  It would make for more a eventful race in the 3rd week for sure.  He did mention he got a bump on the knee in yesterdays crash where he lost 40secs so I guess he could be lining up an excuse there if he is hiding bad form.

You were disagreeing were you, nugget? I just thought you were asking a bunch of questions:

You learned there is no place to hide in a TT from the Romandie TT?

Regarding Contador, I can't remember the last time he did a bad TT over a long distance in a grand tour.  Do you think because Aru will lose minutes Contador will do a bad TT?

I don't take kindly to being misrepresented! If you want to misrepresent my position go right ahead, but you should be aware that I am not going to take the time to respond to you as I don't waste time on fools!

Contador may not have been in trouble, but the fact that he hasn't looked like in blitzing form, suggest he is hiding some lacking form. I would advance the position that he should be the 5/2 favourite for this type of ITT, and the fact he isn't already suggests he is not in peak form and is therefore unlikely to win this stage, although is very likely to win the race into Milan.

May 16, 2015 -- 12:50PM, SwingingPick wrote:

What do you remember, if anything, from the recent Romandie ride, nugget?

Why is there something we should know?

SwingingPick
You were disagreeing were you, nugget?

No, just trying to ascertain why you think Contador will struggle.  I cant see how you can see this as a negative derailment attempt, touchy I guess.  It's just that you wrote a big long novel of a post and really didn't say anything.


It looks like you think Contador is struggling because he is overs for the TT.

Contador smashes the TT. I guess he wants an easy 3rd week so he can set his sights on le tour and the elusive double.

Still cant remember the last time Contador did a bad TT in a grand tour.

The GC takes another spin. Contador regains the Pink jersey as expected, but rides very powerfully, which I didn't expect. Aru rides with some improvement perhaps, but loses the Pink jersey, and the gap is beyond his ability to regain in the Dolomites on a man-to-man basis with Contador.

Contador	GC Leader
Aru	+2.28 secs

Anyone who thinks Porte can win a Grand Tour is deluded......the evidence is mounting up

Landa gets his stage win as anticipated.  He looks set for a podium position now.

Porte was very unlucky in this GT, SKY didn't start well in the TTT, which put him under early pressure. Nevertheless, he rode in patient fashion and kept the time gap to a minimum. He then got unlucky and with the time gap blowing out, he disrespected the Australian Nationals jersey in the ITT and has lowered the opinion many had in him as an "Aussie Battler", essentially an honest campaigner who would leave his guts on the road to get back a second or two.

I used to think that Porte was the kind of rider who would use a rotten run of luck to work even harder and come back hungrier and tougher for his next GT start, however now I'm not that sure and I'm not sure what kind of convincing I will require to change that opinion.

Even before his bad luck, he looked as if he had zero chance of putting any time into BERTIE. In fact, was hanging on a bit in the stage before his crash.

Reckon Bertie is properly going to throw his toys out of the pram here

After stage 16:

Contador	GC Leader
Landa	+4.02 secs
Aru	+4.52

I think Contador just did too much work in bridging solo to AST on the Motorilo, however Landa showed his potential when opening up 30 secs very easily when attacking Kruiswuijk and Contador toward the finish. Held 38 secs on the line, but Contador had excuses and with such a big lead I'm not sure there's too much to excited about with Landa, at this point.

Porte was looking strong and patient to me, Clay.

Porte looked strong and patient to me as well. I wouldn't say you could conclusively rule Porte out from winning a GT just based on this, although I don't think Porte or probably anyone else can hold a candle to Bertie in this form.

what would today's stage with AC's puncture have looked like with Porte still in contention for GC?

After stage 19:

Contador	GC Leader
Aru	4.37 secs
Landa	5.15

Aru went clear to win the stage in steaming fashion.

After stage 20:

Contador	GC Leader
Aru	+ 2.02
Landa	+ 3.14

I know it's in dispute, concerning AST's tactics on the penultimate stage in setting-up Aru for stage victory whilst losing the KOM with Landa. However, every time Aru looks at this GC, he sees he is only 2 mins behind the best GC rider in present time. What a confidence boost for a rider on your team who is signed till the end of the 2017 season. I think AST have a future GC winner in Aru, whilst more short term gains would have given them a 60/40 shot at this stage victory and the KOM.

Clear sailing for AST and their future GC winner in Aru.

i got Visconti @ 33/1 for KOM

Should have posted this on here really:

Yes well in guys. It's been a fantastic GT and we've had some excellent discussion on here throughout. The BF guys said they would give us a cycling forum as a trial originally and see how it went. Reckon we've easily done enough to make sure we keep it. Hope you've all made some decent profit and enjoyed it as much as I have. Looking back through my records I'm up overall from this race. I didn’t have any bets in the GC and my one bet in the points classification (Lobato) was a disaster, but I’ve done well in the stages despite some big ups and downs.

My profit came largely due to Kiryieka's win (25/1) in the Stage 14 time trial which was a pretty big bet for me. I also had a winner on Greipel Stage 6 (5/2) and some smaller bets at big prices in play that won, such as Ulissi Stage 7 (IP 66/1), Zakarin Stage 11 (IP 100/1). I also had some placed bets at biggish prices like Hofland (25/1) on Stage 2, Chavanel (200/1) Stage 5, Lobato (16/1) Stage 7, Landa (28/1) Stage 8, Uran (100/1) Stage 19 and Uran again (40/1) Stage 20.

The low points were Stage 4 (Formolo – I was all over some of the punchier riders like Bling and then threw good money after bad by laying Formolo in running). Stage 9 (Tiralongo) was another in-running lay disaster and to make it worse I also had Elissonde in break 300/1 6 places and he came 8th. Another shocker was not backing Gilbert for Stage 12 despite thinking it was perfect for him. Finally, not taking Astana’s superiority in the mountains and amazing recovery powers seriously enough meant I missed out on some big prices on Landa and Aru’s two stage wins each both before those stages and in-play and overall I haven’t actually fared that well in the mountain stages. Some of you guys were well on board with the programme by that stage and it tells me I need to analyse who is strongest a lot more carefully, as well as think about team tactics and dynamics in these situations in future. It will be interesting to see what Astana are capable of in the Tour when they bring their first team!

Next up for me is the Critérium du Dauphiné which starts a week today and I started work on the fred this morning.

Great work as always MC, has been so helpful and informative to read yours and everyone else's views on here.

I  didn't do great on the stage betting as a whole but didn't get involved on too many stages. My biggest bet was Landa for the top 10 as stated on the first page of this, at 7/2  that now looks like the bet of all time! And i said he could become the team leader by the third week which i believe he should have done as he was clearly the strongest rider. It reminded me in lots of ways of Froome and Wiggins in 2012 at the TDF, when it was plain to see the stronger rider was being held back but obviously the major difference there was no Bertie and Sky actually won the GC where as Astana at the end of the day have not won the big goal.

Final GC:

Contador	GC Winner
Aru	+ 1:53 secs
Landa	+ 3:05

A really great and highly enjoyable Giro to watch. Unfortunately for me, it represented my first GT loss in several years. Had Bertie as a banker from the start which would've meant a small -- calculating -- profit, given how the race was developing with his strong form impact and prospects, however I laid him to field red on the research surrounding his shoulder injury. I then contributed to my potential loss on him by laying him even more, on the understanding that Porte would be his equal and anchor his price to a certain range, even if the shoulder was to come good or if it was just him foxing, which it was. Once Porte was effectively out of calculations I was holding big red, and whilst I recovered a little here and there, the main sizeable chunk of it was absorbed as a significant loss.

Ante-post stage bets never proved profitable to cover the stage ante-post bank, however my IR stage bank covered those losses and I came out ever so slightly ahead, but not enough to really recover any of the GC bank, so on the whole this Giro was a significant loss for me. I think Porte being unlucky was the only real contributing factor to my experiencing such a loss, since I always factored recovering up to a half of my then potential losses on Bertie by his sporting involvement.

I essentially wagered on Bertie's shoulder being bad and wrongly thought I was getting in ahead of the market swing, but when it was seen that he could ride on it, I should have recovered for a small loss with the understanding that I just wagered wrong. Instead, I made it worse thinking I had a 'Plan B' with Porte, and once Bertie's price fell out the bottom on Porte's ill-luck, I had no 'Plan C' in the GC, and so a loss for me since taking Bertie's price by adding zeros would've been just plain stupid.

I also want to offer my appreciation to MC for his great work, and whilst I don't usually like to comment on the forum during viewing, for fear of missing crucial things, the overall intelligent input and involvement by forum members made it an enjoyable experience, and I will be considering being more active. I think it might beneficial for us (the cycling forum) to discuss what we want out of making IR comments, since some of it might be derivative and/or repetitive.

Cheers,
SP