*GIRO D'ITALIA* 9th May to 31st May - Preview

FAVOURITES
Contador 10/11
Richie Porte 5/2
Rigoberto Uran 8/1
Fabio Aru 11/1
Domenico Pozzovivo 18/1
Ilnur Zakarin 50/1
Leopold Konig 66/1
Roman Kreuziger 80/1
Michele Scarponi 80/1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 100/1
Ryder Hesjedal 100/1

No Europcar
No Colombian team

This looks like Contadors to lose but @ 4/6 - 10/11 he is unbackable especially after all the crashes not just this year but in recent GC races.

I am the first to admit that i have never been Richie Porte's biggest fan , mainly because his GC record is appalling, but he has trimmed down over the winter and is in excellent form. Add to this he has an extremely strong team (probably the strongest Sky have ever put out) and he will never have a better chance of success than this race.

Does this leave me with trying to find an outsider to back e/w hoping to snatch 3rd place, there is not much appeal in that.

This makes the outright market quite unappealing.

Any suggestions anyone please ?

good range of markets now available on PP

*** Richie Porte Was the big SKY hope for this in 2014, however injury and illness conspired against him and he was forced to pull out of both Paris-Nice and the Giro, and failed to finish Tirreno-Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour de Romandie.
        Had what could only be described as a monumental off-season, stripping down whilst building strength through a combination of training and nutrition. And the results speak for themselves. First-up this season, won the Nationals in the ITT, and finished in 22nd place in the road race, before winning the queen stage up Willunga Hill in the Tour Down Under, however he lost the GC by 2 secs when Rohan Dennis worked to the line in surprising fashion. One week later he rode the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race for a 20th place finish. Next up, and on the European continent, finished 4th in the Algarve, won Paris-Nice, won Catalunya, and last start won Trentino in a perfect tune-up for this.
        Strong credentials as he looks fit, is in career-best form, has a strong team assembled in support, and is proven over three weeks of racing. 11/4 W/O. Will be in it for a very long way. Makes very strong appeal. The one to beat.

** Alberto Contador Veteran campaigner and class rider who is not only hoping to win this race, but will be attempting to also win the Tour later, in the hope of performing the elusive Giro-Tour double, and then perhaps even the very rare Triple Crown. Contador has already achieved the little easier Giro and Velta double in 2008. The last rider to do the Giro and Tour double was Marco Pantani in 1998, which came five years after Miguel Indurain did it back-to-back, so it can go off regularly.
        This season, first up in Andalucia he got skewered by Froome up to Alto de Allanadas by 29 secs after beating him by 19 secs in the previous stage, to ultimately go down to Froome by only 2 secs on GC. Then in Tirreno-Adriatico, he struggled both with the cold and with the fast pace as his team and SKY challenged each other on the Terminillo queen stage, whereupon he finished in 5th place, some 55 secs behind, and would also finish in 5th place on GC. Next finished in 4th place last start in Catalunya with uninspiring riding up until stage 5 where he crashed hard in the final 3kms, however he suffered only superficial injuries and managed to finish the stage and complete the race.
        Comes to the start line as the short-priced favourite, perhaps more by default than a highly impressive season, so he has some work to do and will need to prove he is up to this early on, however he has a crack outfit at his disposal and loads of experience. 1/1 W/O as a banker proposition. Racing against inferior opposition. Must be respected. Hold safe.

1/4* Rigoberto Uran Finished 2nd over this trip last time out, which included a surprising but excellent win in the ITT stage 12. 2nd on GC in 2013, also. Is having a far better season coming into this than last year, with a 5th place finish last start in Romandie, a 5th in Catalunya before that, and a 3rd in Tirreno-Adriatico. He also rode well in Strade Bianche for a 7th place finish, which might be important given the tricky gravel road conditions on the climb up to Sestriere for the queen stage. Also had a win when first-up in the Colombian Nationals ITT, followed by a 4th place finish in the road race.
        He doesn't have the strongest team, however he is a consistent and experienced campaigner and the parcours suits. If he can dictate terms early, he may generate the necessary luck required to finally go one place better and take this out. 8/1 W/O. One of the main contenders. Watch closely.

Domenico Pozzovivo Wily Italian veteran with a sold record here, albeit off the podium: 5th last year, 10th in 2013, and 8th in 2012. This season: 6th Tour Down Under, 8th Tirreno-Adriatico, 3rd Catalunya, 7th Trentino, and finished with the 10-man selection when 8th in LBL, last start.
        Will likely improve with more racing, and may look like the winner at some point, however his winning instincts are somewhat questionable and a podium result is more likely. 25/1. Hard to have. Others have stronger claims. Discount.

Fabio Aru Promising 24yo rider from Italy who got himself onto the podium last year over this trip, which was set up by an excellent win in stage 15 up to Montecampione, proving his climbing credentials. His form this season is highly suspect coming into this after suffering a stomach virus which resulted in having to take a course antibiotics, and which then had a domino effect in preventing him from taking the start line in Giro del Trentino and Romandie. Only raced twice before that for a 6th place finish last start in Catalunya, and a 39th in Paris-Nice before that.
        He showed last year that he can work his way into the race in a conservative fashion, however the parcours is not as conducive to riders requiring building form scenario as last year. Moreover, and to a lesser extent, he may now be susceptible to more illness. 11/1. Has claims. Take on trust.

Ilnur Zakarin 25yo Russian making his Grand Tour debut. Closer scrutiny comes after he sounded his potential when riding in elite company last start in Romandie, where he won on GC. Struck out in impressive fashion when going in pursuit of Pinot on the penultimate and queen stage up to Champex-Lac, finishing in 2nd place. Then still had it all before him on the final stage, however he rode heroically in the ITT, changing his bike mid-race to finish in 3rd place.
        He is not knew to riding in Italy, however he is an unknown proposition over three weeks of racing and will likely be using this race as good experience. 28/1. Hard to have at this stage. Wait to see.

Good luck to all,
SP

Best Market seems to be the Mountains, be nice to know your thoughts SP

Points jerseys and mountain jerseys are tricky markets to call. I'm leaving the mountains comp alone but you'd probably want someone from a team without a GC rider and possibly someone who could lose time straight from the TTT. I've had a bet in the points comp though.

Points
There are three different types of stages, all of which get different amount of points allocated.

Flat stages (top 20 riders score points) = Stages 2, 6, 7, 10, 13, 17 and 21
Stage winner = 50 points
2nd 40 pts
3rd 34 pts
then 28, 25, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Also in intermediate sprints top 10 get points (20 for winner etc)

Medium Mountain stages (top 15 riders score points) = Stages 1, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12 and 18
Stage winner = 22 points
2nd = 20 pts
3rd = 18 pts
then 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Also in intermediate sprints top 8 riders get points (10 for winner etc)

Mountain stages (top 10 riders score points) = Stages 8, 9, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20
Stage winner = 15 points
2nd = 12 pts
3rd = 9 pts
then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Also in intermediate sprints top 6 riders get points (8 for winner etc)

The way I see it Bling would be the absolutely nailed on winner of this category if he completed the race because he can get to a load of finishes that the other sprinters like Greipel cannot. I think we can rule out the climbers this year because they won't pick up too many points in the stages where the big points are on offer. People like Modolo and Mezgec are likely to sty the course and could fight for both the flat stages and the more hilly ones. Someone else that falls into that category is JJ Lobato and I've chanced him at 12/1 win only with PP.

The thing that is putting me off Bling is that he is likely not to complete the race, and with green jersey being his main focus he won't try and win the red points jersey here because he'll be prepping for the Tour.

Well there's a general theory that it is very hard to maintain peak form over two Grand Tours and there isn't enough time to come down and come back up again in between either. Not saying I necessarily agree with it, and obviously Bertie is trying for the double this year, but some teams definitely do go by that theory. If you remember last year Bling won the TTT, a stage and wore the leader's jersey in the Giro before dropping out after stage 10. He wasn't even aiming at the Tour last year either so it might make sense to do the same this year if his goal is the green jersey in the Tour.

Not part of any plan I've come across MC, in fact I think you'll recall that Bling only withdrew from the Giro last year in order to recover from his crash in stage 9. Actually, he was attempting the TdF last year, it was supposed to be his debut, hence why the team thought he might benefit from a longer recovery since OGE is such a team that do definitely go by that theory you've mentioned. Nevertheless, from what I understand he is definitely riding this race into Milan, unless he experiences a crash or fatigue of such a significant note that there's no point in flogging him for little to no good outcome ahead of being included in the squad for the TdF. I really think he is worth a bet, and you've set a good foundation of analysis for the advantage his expansive characteristics will provide. As I said, we'll see him winning the TVs tomorrow and that'll be confirmation, I believe.

That's probably correct. Reading back over a couple of interviews he gave during and after the spring classics it seems the plan is stage wins and then see how the points competition lies. He seems to be a few worries about getting over some of the big mountains though and seems to be saying he'll get as far as he can and consider the points jersey on its merits as the race develops.

Hats off MC with all the threads and all the great work you have put in here, much appreciated.

So far my only bets on the outright are Landa at 7/2 to finish top 10, he is obviously here as support for Aru firstly but is riding very well himself. A rider I have liked for a hile, he is a very strong climber, and he looked strong at Trentino although obviously 2nd best to Porte, and if Aru feels any effects of his stomach bug later in the race he could become the team leader, but whatever he should be with Aru most of the way on all the stages and that should be enough to comfortably place him inside the top 10.

And as mentioned above by MC and SP i think Matthews is strong bet for the pints jersey so 5/1 taken there.

I do think Porte will run Contador very close at the least, though  2/1 was not big enough for me to play, but i am now tempted as he has drifted to 3/1 after yesterday?? though i hoped he mmay have even drifted further!
Sky were very disappointing yesterday no hiding from that and it was a bad result for them, but it isn't a disaster and like MC says it could help make this week a lot more exciting as sky will now  likely be very attacking.

Looking forward to a really good 3 weeks, looks like every stage should have something to offer, will be great viewing.

Gl all.

Richie Porte's motorhome, nice for him but good for team morale later in the race?

also surprised by the amount of work Tinkoff is putting into it, had expected we won't see much from them for 2 weeks

In relation to the motorhome for Porte -- good morale within teams is definitely important in GTs, and if his teammates feel like he is segregated from them off the road, but expecting total commitment from them right beside him on the road than that surely can't be good for morale -- definitely worth keeping a look for signs in relation to how they appear as comrades.

Porte looks very good, very impressed with his ride into Abetone with Bertie and Aru. If he rides as conservatively as possible this weekend, he appears like he might harden into a very strong force by the weekend after and third week. May be prudent to value hunt for bids to increase stakes on Porte with Bertie as banker to balance those backs.

Does Porte even need his team? I don't think he does!

End of stage 5:

Contador	GC leader.
Aru	+ .02
Porte	+ .20

Barring crashes, illness, or critical point mechanical failures, some variation of this podium appears compelling for the podium in Milan, at this early point of the race.

SwingingPick
"Does Porte even need his team? I don't think he does!"

Yeah sure, Sky should withdraw all his teammates from the Giro immediately and save on hotel and maintenance cost.  It's in the bag.

What do you remember, if anything, from the recent Romandie ride, nugget?

You remember a lot!

Stage 10 came after the Rest Day, and at the conclusion of it there are some changes in the GC, on account of Porte suffering a puncture with 5 kms to go. With a nice tailwind the peloton were travelling swiftly at about 60 kms/hr, and even thought Porte had his team around him, and even fellow countryman Bling offered assistance, he lost significant time to the GC contenders.

Contador	GC Leader
Aru	+ .03  secs
Landa	+ .46
Porte	+ 1.09

I was quite confident that .22 secs behind was not at all a problem for Porte going into the ITT, I even thought he could afford to have it at up to .30 secs, however now it's going to be much harder for him to make it back. Is Porte as good as Quintana? No. It's not over though, not at all, but he will need to do something very special, something which would define his career as a top class rider if he succeeds.