*PARIS-ROUBAIX* Sunday 12th April

Degenkolb all day every day for me......this suits him far better than Flanders and his was excellent in Flanders winning the group sprint home in 5th.......who is strong enough to drop him? I don't think there are many this year that have that beast mode explosion. Degenkold was 2nd last year and they will have to drop him before the finish or it is game, set and match. Kristoff and Degenkolb are proving there is no one strong enough to get rid of them

I have been finalising my index and found a record which might interest Kristoff backers. No rider in history has won the Flanders, Roubaix, Scheldeprijs triple in the same year. Tornado Tom came close in 2006, but only managed a 2nd place in Roubaix (won Flanders and Scheldeprijs) after an upheld protest, however the order of the races was different then, in any case.

Cheers,
SP

Would of been interesting to see how short Wiggins would of been had he showed even the slightest bit of convincing form.  I thought he looked good in his Paris-Roubaix debut last year.

Wiggins didn't debut in last year's Roubaix but rather in 2003, when his finishing result has been recorded as a DSQ. He has ridden the race five times since then for a total number of six rides, with his best result a 9th place finish, coming in last years's edition. I agree it was a promising ride and it suggested he might be capable of improving on it, however as nugget points out, he has no form to speak of, and the suggestions going around that he'll want to retire by winning this race is just fanciful. Wiggins has become a scared rider, and whilst he might lay it all down by suspending his fear on this occasion, he'll have to overcome some impressive opposition and will require lots of luck to win. I therefore think it's too much of an ask, and he doesn't enter my ante-post calculations. In addition, I think had he some of the missing form, he might have generated strong interest but his price would be pure speculation.

The thing going for Kristoff against such a strong history as I previously mentioned, is that he was also the first rider in the 38 year history of 3 Days of De Panne to win three of the four stages. That indicates he is a record breaker and he may do something which Tornado Tom couldn't do, however Tom is a better rider and Kristoff will be a heavily marked man, albeit with an above-average team assembled around him. To be the new superstar in cycling like Spartacus or Tornado Tom, would mean that highly impressive results are performed over consecutive seasons, not all within the space of several weeks. On that basis I will continue to resist him at ante-post as I believe he has reached the pinnacle of achievement for this season.

Still working on Degenkolb...

Cheers,
SP

I don't think there is anything wrong with Wiggins' form. His 3rd in the GC in De Panne reads well. The issue for me with Wiggins is the price. He has achieved far less than any of his similarly priced market rivals. Not for me.

If nothing is wrong with his form MC, what exactly is right about his form, though? His ITT ride in 3 Days of De Panne? That's all I can decipher, because after OHN I wasn't that excited for his cobbles campaign. SP

if you havent already watched this , can i suggest it as recommended viewing.

https://youtu.be/zxBTVU9JDrA

My picks for this are Degenkolb, Vandenbergh and Demare.

**** Niki Terpstra The defending champion comes into this race this year on the back of a solid last start performance when he drifted off the front of the Peloton on the Flanders Hellingen with break-out classics campaigner and highly in-form rider Kristoff, to finish in 2nd place. Although he was always going to be disadvantaged in a sprint finish scenario against the Norwegian, and was, he nevertheless looked quite strong when coming through to take his revolving turn from Kristoff in the lead, in the lead-in to the finish. I initially thought this was a ploy to show Kristoff he was doing the work effortlessly and therefore inferring excellent strength for him to consider, and I still think that, however it is important to note that he showed he was thinking clearly enough to enter his opponent’s mind in this manner, and that takes some doing under those difficult conditions.
I believe he still has scope for improvement on the back of that Flanders ride, he has been identified as looking forward to this race immensely, training well, and he will have support of the highest order in Stybar and Vandenbergh, and to a lesser extent GVKB and Trentin. The team have not hidden their intentions that they're 100% committed to Terpstra's defence, and we know he is the kind of tough nut to handle the stress of expectations. I also believe his characteristics are far more appropriate for this race, in fact he lines-up with that big low-end engine and hard strength very much required to make or create the selections over this course, along with extensive experience on the cobbles. 9/1 (various) E/W is an appropriate price, in fact I think he is a little overs, so not holding out for anything better. Rate very highly. The one to beat. Special.

*** Peter Sagan 6th here last year, he rode well but experienced an energy deficit which was irreversible when in such top class company. This season, he has been slowly turning around his season since his disappointing rides with a 30th in E3 and a 10th in GW, with a commanding 4th place finish in Flanders when attempting to bridge across to the two leaders when in the company of GVA. His last start 72nd in Scheldeprijs was a mere training ride, and he appears to be coming into this very-much under the radar. Improving type. Warrants respect. 14/1 (various) E/W is a cracking price for a top class rider who looks comfortable on the hard pave of this circuit. Respect.

** Ian Stannard Opened his classics campaign this season with an indefatigable ride to win OHN by defeating a three-man EQS tag-team bar fight. This was one of the finest rides I have seen in a very long time, at that time, and on that ride he would line-up as the standout favourite. However, his form came off immediately after, when starting in KBK he could only manage a 67th place finish. Then DNFs for SB and MSR, before a 26th in E3 appears fair but is actually poor on account of finishing 8 secs behind the main peloton group. He was never comfortable in Flanders and found the going difficult in GW, so granted there are a lot of question marks, and his price is not making great appeal, however he is ideally suited over this course. 33/1 (various) E/W. Should be thereabouts. Take on trust.

* John Degenkolb Has shown mixed form this classics season with a hard-fought sprint finish to snatch the MSR crown from Kristoff, followed by a dismal display in the finish of E3, when 25th and last of the main peloton group. He then showed he can be quite soft when abandoning GW in conditions made for the hard men. Finally, in his last start effort in Flanders, he missed the moves but worked home well with a 7th place finish. I’m not convinced that we will see the rider of last year in this race, however this race has been his target and he may be coming into it at the right time, and on that basis he must be held safely. Enters calculations on a W/O basis. 9/1 (various). Worthy of close consideration.

Good luck to all,
SP

PP are offering match bets

terpstra 1/2 to beat wiggins

Kristoff is turning into a really special rider. There's an argument that we should all be lumping on large at 5/1, sitting back and counting our winnings. I don't think I can take that price, although I'm perfectly aware that it could seem a massive, massive price this time tomorrow. Degenkolb is my biggest bet in this, I took 10/1 4 places with PP. Think his form this spring has been absolutely frightening. He and Kristoff should both be shorter than they are. My second bet is Van Avermaet, he has been stupidly strong in all the cobbled races and if he can get his tactics right and times his moves right he is well capable of staying away from chasers. I'd love Wiggins to win but I just can't consider him at the price against the wealth of proven cobbled talent he's up against. I've had three longshots as well, they are Arnaud Demare 40/1, Stijn Vandenbergh 40/1 and Florian Senechal 3001/. Demare is strong over the cobbles and fast in the sprint, Vandenbergh is mentally strong but a loon. He's a free agent for this I feel. If Ettix have riders to spare in the finale he could well be sent up the road and that would be immensely dangerous for everyone else. Senechal is a proper longshot but won the junior edition and knows the roads.

Senechal knows these cobbled sections better than any other rider on the road, he's local and rides them every day. He's leader for Cofidis and winning this race has always been his career goal. Clearly a longshot as I said, but I'm keen to have him on my side at 300s.

Gregory Rast (Trek Factory Racing), Adam Blythe (Orica-GreenEdge), Alexis Gougeard (Ag2r-La Mondiale), Aleksejs Saramotins (IAM Cycling), Pierre-Luc Perichon (Bretange-Seche), Tim Declercq (Topsport-Vlaanderen), Frederik Backaert (Wanty Groupe Gobert), Ralf Matzka (Bora Argon 18) & Sean De Bie (Lotto Soudal)

Strong break.

live coverage now on Eurosport break have 7m 40s with 142km to go , break on sector 25

I agree Wiggins is too short but I don't want to oppose him in this, as anything he sets his mind to do he has a blydi good chance of doing it.

Some big price fancies for me are Benoot and Leukemans.

Devolder out already.

G  hitskerb and goes down heavily, bike change and chasing back

Commissars likely to chuck a few of the offenders at the X-roads out here

Probably about 15 in that front group. I saw Terpstra, Oss, Sagan. I think Stannard was in there.

On section 12 now, remember 10 is Mons-en-Pévèle