*PARIS-ROUBAIX* Sunday 12th April

That's better

Degenkolb all day every day for me......this suits him far better than Flanders and his was excellent in Flanders winning the group sprint home in 5th.......who is strong enough to drop him? I don't think there are many this year that have that beast mode explosion. Degenkold was 2nd last year and they will have to drop him before the finish or it is game, set and match. Kristoff and Degenkolb are proving there is no one strong enough to get rid of them

I love the race, Degenkolb or Stybar but won't be getting finiancialy involved a lot

I have been finalising my index and found a record which might interest Kristoff backers. No rider in history has won the Flanders, Roubaix, Scheldeprijs triple in the same year. Tornado Tom came close in 2006, but only managed a 2nd place in Roubaix (won Flanders and Scheldeprijs) after an upheld protest, however the order of the races was different then, in any case.

Cheers,
SP

Degenkolb is going to have to close down a lot of late attacks on account of his fast finish, unless of course Terptra helps tow him to the line.

Would of been interesting to see how short Wiggins would of been had he showed even the slightest bit of convincing form.  I thought he looked good in his Paris-Roubaix debut last year.

Degenkolb didnt take one turn at the front in the chase group at Flanders but his sprint to win Milan-San Remo was ridiculous and he is very strong at the moment.

Regarding Kristoff he has always performed better at Flanders than Paris-Roubaix but I wouldnt put it past him.  He might just be the new Boonen/Cancellara.

Wiggins didn't debut in last year's Roubaix but rather in 2003, when his finishing result has been recorded as a DSQ. He has ridden the race five times since then for a total number of six rides, with his best result a 9th place finish, coming in last years's edition. I agree it was a promising ride and it suggested he might be capable of improving on it, however as nugget points out, he has no form to speak of, and the suggestions going around that he'll want to retire by winning this race is just fanciful. Wiggins has become a scared rider, and whilst he might lay it all down by suspending his fear on this occasion, he'll have to overcome some impressive opposition and will require lots of luck to win. I therefore think it's too much of an ask, and he doesn't enter my ante-post calculations. In addition, I think had he some of the missing form, he might have generated strong interest but his price would be pure speculation.

The thing going for Kristoff against such a strong history as I previously mentioned, is that he was also the first rider in the 38 year history of 3 Days of De Panne to win three of the four stages. That indicates he is a record breaker and he may do something which Tornado Tom couldn't do, however Tom is a better rider and Kristoff will be a heavily marked man, albeit with an above-average team assembled around him. To be the new superstar in cycling like Spartacus or Tornado Tom, would mean that highly impressive results are performed over consecutive seasons, not all within the space of several weeks. On that basis I will continue to resist him at ante-post as I believe he has reached the pinnacle of achievement for this season.

Still working on Degenkolb...

Cheers,
SP

I thought he looked good in his Paris-Roubaix debut last year. just checking. First time back at the race after his stint as a successful 3 week grand tour rider.  Tough transition from being a 3 week gc rider to a cobbled classics rider.

Anyway I thought Wiggins was impressive last year at his debut of being relevant in the race, towing the chase group up and catching the strong lead group containing Cancellara, Sagan, Stybar, Vanmarke and Degenkolb late in the race over the last two sectors.  Would be amazing to get to see someone win the TdF and Paris-Roubaix.  He does seem unders on current form though.


To be the new superstar in cycling like Spartacus or Tornado Tom, would mean that highly impressive results are performed over consecutive seasons   
hmm.. true but somehow I dont think we'll see that in this new era of pro cycling

I don't think there is anything wrong with Wiggins' form. His 3rd in the GC in De Panne reads well. The issue for me with Wiggins is the price. He has achieved far less than any of his similarly priced market rivals. Not for me.

I guess the word 'debut' has a different meaning here in Australia.

If nothing is wrong with his form MC, what exactly is right about his form, though? His ITT ride in 3 Days of De Panne? That's all I can decipher, because after OHN I wasn't that excited for his cobbles campaign. SP

Thanks for the preview of the race MC. Excellent work.

if you havent already watched this , can i suggest it as recommended viewing.

https://youtu.be/zxBTVU9JDrA

My picks for this are Degenkolb, Vandenbergh and Demare.

Agree with a lot of what has been posted here that the 2 riders to beat are undoubtedly Kristoff and Degenkolb, if either is in the group going to the finish one of them will win simple as, and of the 2 i prefer Kristoff, his form and more importantly his self belief  are  phenomenal at the minute.

With regards to Wiggins and why he is so short  though he hasn't shown any real form aside from the  de Panne TT, I think the thing with him is the preparation he has put in. He has planned and trained for this  one day for the best part of the last 12 months, he has ridden and reconned again and again and again, I understand he knows exactly how long each pave section takes him, how long it takes him from each section to the next, etc when Sky really set their intention on doing something (and Wiggins in particular) they plan and focus on it like no one else, I believe they have put an awful  lot of work in to this one day. As a team things didn't go to plan last weekend when i think they expected to win with Thomas, but even more focus and planning has gone in to this, this has been a very long term plan. They will obviously have to attack from a long way out, they know neither  Wiggins or Thomas will win from a sprint, a solo finish is by far their most likely victory scenario. I would not be surprised at all to see Wiggins or Thomas win, Wiggins talked about last year and said him and G didnt talk during the finale but this year they will be talking a lot! They undoubtedly have a big plan, and I fully expect  1 or both to be  involved in the finish.  Yes the prices are shorter than i would like but have to back both, Wiggins 8/1 ew and Thomas 12/1 ew.

The other rider i like here is Stybar, unlucky in 2013 when taken down by a spectator and right in the mix again last year when 5th. He obviously loves it here and has shown he has what it takes to be involved. He should  be the team number one in this race, and Etixx will be desperately looking for the win after a number of near misses this spring. 8/1 ew.

Nothing really original about my picks and no fancy prices but the bookies really don't seem to be taking any chances with this.
It does look another open race and so should  make for a cracking watch.

Gl all.

**** Niki Terpstra The defending champion comes into this race this year on the back of a solid last start performance when he drifted off the front of the Peloton on the Flanders Hellingen with break-out classics campaigner and highly in-form rider Kristoff, to finish in 2nd place. Although he was always going to be disadvantaged in a sprint finish scenario against the Norwegian, and was, he nevertheless looked quite strong when coming through to take his revolving turn from Kristoff in the lead, in the lead-in to the finish. I initially thought this was a ploy to show Kristoff he was doing the work effortlessly and therefore inferring excellent strength for him to consider, and I still think that, however it is important to note that he showed he was thinking clearly enough to enter his opponent’s mind in this manner, and that takes some doing under those difficult conditions.
I believe he still has scope for improvement on the back of that Flanders ride, he has been identified as looking forward to this race immensely, training well, and he will have support of the highest order in Stybar and Vandenbergh, and to a lesser extent GVKB and Trentin. The team have not hidden their intentions that they're 100% committed to Terpstra's defence, and we know he is the kind of tough nut to handle the stress of expectations. I also believe his characteristics are far more appropriate for this race, in fact he lines-up with that big low-end engine and hard strength very much required to make or create the selections over this course, along with extensive experience on the cobbles. 9/1 (various) E/W is an appropriate price, in fact I think he is a little overs, so not holding out for anything better. Rate very highly. The one to beat. Special.

*** Peter Sagan 6th here last year, he rode well but experienced an energy deficit which was irreversible when in such top class company. This season, he has been slowly turning around his season since his disappointing rides with a 30th in E3 and a 10th in GW, with a commanding 4th place finish in Flanders when attempting to bridge across to the two leaders when in the company of GVA. His last start 72nd in Scheldeprijs was a mere training ride, and he appears to be coming into this very-much under the radar. Improving type. Warrants respect. 14/1 (various) E/W is a cracking price for a top class rider who looks comfortable on the hard pave of this circuit. Respect.

** Ian Stannard Opened his classics campaign this season with an indefatigable ride to win OHN by defeating a three-man EQS tag-team bar fight. This was one of the finest rides I have seen in a very long time, at that time, and on that ride he would line-up as the standout favourite. However, his form came off immediately after, when starting in KBK he could only manage a 67th place finish. Then DNFs for SB and MSR, before a 26th in E3 appears fair but is actually poor on account of finishing 8 secs behind the main peloton group. He was never comfortable in Flanders and found the going difficult in GW, so granted there are a lot of question marks, and his price is not making great appeal, however he is ideally suited over this course. 33/1 (various) E/W. Should be thereabouts. Take on trust.

* John Degenkolb Has shown mixed form this classics season with a hard-fought sprint finish to snatch the MSR crown from Kristoff, followed by a dismal display in the finish of E3, when 25th and last of the main peloton group. He then showed he can be quite soft when abandoning GW in conditions made for the hard men. Finally, in his last start effort in Flanders, he missed the moves but worked home well with a 7th place finish. I’m not convinced that we will see the rider of last year in this race, however this race has been his target and he may be coming into it at the right time, and on that basis he must be held safely. Enters calculations on a W/O basis. 9/1 (various). Worthy of close consideration.

Good luck to all,
SP

Lots of common agreement here especially with Kristoff and Degenkolb being in such good form. They are too short for me to back either. I love Stybar 8/1 is probably about right. My lucky pick of Lars Boom to win the cobbled section of the TDF last year could go well. Since time seems to be running out for Astana they are showing up in some races,he is only 16/1 compared to the 40/1 available last year. I cannot fancy Wiggins at all and he seemed to be struggling last year before Thomas helped him out. I was hoping to see Kwiatowski compete.

i have plumped for two speculative longshots at big prices

H. Haussler  @ 150/1
S. Turgot    @ 300/1

small win on Lars Boom @ 16/1

PP are offering match bets

terpstra 1/2 to beat wiggins

Kwiatkowski is lining up well for the Ardennes CM, so will be interesting to see how he goes there and whether he can lift the Rainbow Jersey curse? I'm tending to think he can, but haven't had a close look as yet, so an entirely speculative opinion. SP

Kristoff is turning into a really special rider. There's an argument that we should all be lumping on large at 5/1, sitting back and counting our winnings. I don't think I can take that price, although I'm perfectly aware that it could seem a massive, massive price this time tomorrow. Degenkolb is my biggest bet in this, I took 10/1 4 places with PP. Think his form this spring has been absolutely frightening. He and Kristoff should both be shorter than they are. My second bet is Van Avermaet, he has been stupidly strong in all the cobbled races and if he can get his tactics right and times his moves right he is well capable of staying away from chasers. I'd love Wiggins to win but I just can't consider him at the price against the wealth of proven cobbled talent he's up against. I've had three longshots as well, they are Arnaud Demare 40/1, Stijn Vandenbergh 40/1 and Florian Senechal 3001/. Demare is strong over the cobbles and fast in the sprint, Vandenbergh is mentally strong but a loon. He's a free agent for this I feel. If Ettix have riders to spare in the finale he could well be sent up the road and that would be immensely dangerous for everyone else. Senechal is a proper longshot but won the junior edition and knows the roads.

Senechal's ride to win the junior edition was in 2011, did nothing since. This season in the classics:
24th OHN,
DNF KBK,
75th MSR,
DNF DDV,
19th GW,
90th Flanders,
93 Scheldeprijs.
Unlikely to have the engine towards the finale if amongst elite company. SP

Senechal knows these cobbled sections better than any other rider on the road, he's local and rides them every day. He's leader for Cofidis and winning this race has always been his career goal. Clearly a longshot as I said, but I'm keen to have him on my side at 300s.

That's your perogative MC, I'm just pointing out that he's never won a WT race, hasn't won a noteworthy race over several years, and all-of-a-sudden he is going to win the biggest and hardest race in the world? Prefer Devolder if we're talking home-grown riders. SP

Gregory Rast (Trek Factory Racing), Adam Blythe (Orica-GreenEdge), Alexis Gougeard (Ag2r-La Mondiale), Aleksejs Saramotins (IAM Cycling), Pierre-Luc Perichon (Bretange-Seche), Tim Declercq (Topsport-Vlaanderen), Frederik Backaert (Wanty Groupe Gobert), Ralf Matzka (Bora Argon 18) & Sean De Bie (Lotto Soudal)

Strong break.

If anyone is strong enough to just ride away from everyone else on Carrefour de l’Arbre I'd say it's most likely to be Boom.  A good price to trade since I think he'd be questionable to sustain it to the velodrome.  But it seems more likely the winner will be someone a bit more under the radar who gets in the right move at the right time - probably in between cobbled sectors- someone like Pozzato, Vandenburgh or Hayman.  Rast is reportedly in the break and he's another danger.  I think a lot of the other shorter price riders are going to be too well respected to be allowed much rope but not good enough or not in the shape to overpower the rest

live coverage now on Eurosport break have 7m 40s with 142km to go , break on sector 25

Stijn Devolder down and looking out

I agree Wiggins is too short but I don't want to oppose him in this, as anything he sets his mind to do he has a blydi good chance of doing it.

Some big price fancies for me are Benoot and Leukemans.

Devolder out already.

Level crossing stops half the peloton. Some went through the barriers when down. A BMC rider went well late. Demare went through the barrier, a Lotto rider got hit on the head by a barrier.

G  hitskerb and goes down heavily, bike change and chasing back

Got Stannard win 50s and place 9s. Reckon he's Sky's main plan now.

Commissars likely to chuck a few of the offenders at the X-roads out here

We're getting a selection here. Etixx blowing it apart.

Probably about 15 in that front group. I saw Terpstra, Oss, Sagan. I think Stannard was in there.

I think Degenkolb might have been there but not Kristoff.

On section 12 now, remember 10 is Mons-en-Pévèle

Wiggins positioning is hopeless.

Oss off

Rowe, Stannard and Wiggins all near the front coming to Mons-en-Pévèle

Demare still has Offredo at the front

Lunatic Vandenbergh goes solo

Mechanical for Demare AGAIN!!!

Must be the unluckiest rider in the world in the cobbled classics

Great composure by the cameraman in the crowd, unflinching as Lars Bak plowed into him.

Can't see Vandenbergh staying away from the peloton.

ATTACK FROM WIGGINS

Wiggins catches and passes Vandenbergh in seconds

The first group catch the break but it slows down again and Gougeard goes again from the original break. Chapeau!

Vanmarke and Boom look to be the only ones stronger than Degenkolb on the cobbles

Lotto-Jumbo bringing a massive group back to the front for Vanmarcke. Roelandts solo attack.

Roelandts solo - bit nearer the finish than in Harelbeke

Looks like they aren't going to drop Kristoff or Degenkolb or Stybar

Senechal still in this first group

They bunch should make Degenkolb go to the front to peg back the break
nevermind, Degenkolb doing a Kristoff

Hope these 3 stay out, got Van Avermaet 16/1 and Degenkolb 9/1 as my main two bets

Surely they have to stop riding if Degenkolb bridges.

1st and 3rd. Very happy with that.

Going to get me some of that caffeine-based shampoo. Obviously works.

I think Senechal finished 7th or 8th in the Kristoff, Wiggins, Vanmarcke, Terpstra group about 29 seconds down. Cracking ride from another future star.

Brilliant ride from Luke Rowe to get 8th.

Apr 12, 2015 -- 3:34PM, marychain1 wrote:

Going to get me some of that caffeine-based shampoo. Obviously works.

Have you not seen Johanes Frohlinger's hairline?

Lovely interview by Degenkolb. Didn't see what happened to Vanmarcke to end up in the second group..

Degenkolb brave to go for it and Bert de Backer for the second year emptied himself to set him up.

Luke Rowe is looking a bit special, to do a lot of work and still find yourself off the front to win a minor sprint.

Another great race over the pave! And, a deserving champion in Degenkolb for his combative approach throughout! I do think that EQS lost this race to an extent though, by wanting to show how clever they can be in this neck-of-the-woods. Evidently knowing that the road turned into the direction of crosswinds after the end of sector 14, Tilloy – Sars-et-Rosieres, the EQS DS had marshaled his EQS troops to the front of the peloton and instructed them to press the speed on the front. Remember, the peloton had enjoyed a slight tailwind for the start of the race.

Putting four of your riders on the front to show you knew the wind would be different after making the turn once of the pave, served little purpose since it was too far out from the finish, some 65kms, to pull off a TTT move. So therefore all it did was split the peloton into several groups, and yes it put riders like Kristoff and Wiggins under pressure, but it also made Terpstra and Stybar work that little bit more over a tough section of the road with the wind factor. If they were going to attempt something like that, the distance from the finish had to be as perfectly timed, and clearly it wasn't. So later when Terpstra had a clear window of opportunity to attack, he didn't, because of the wasted energy of that earlier marshaling caper. It was nothing more than a DS wankfest and it cost Terpstra and Stybar, a genuine chance at making a significant race-winning move, and not many people would discuss it let alone notice it, but I firmly believe they lost the race by attempting to be clever.

Wasn't surprised with Kristoff and Wiggins failing, but I was surprised that Degenkolb was so hungry for victory. The MSR win was a little soft, I thought, since he came out of the sprint group, however here he really impressed me with his hard riding. Even when, I think it was Lampaert, refused to work with him in the lead, he didn't panic but stayed on the front, hoping, perhaps knowing, that GVA would contribute, and he did. And then even though the group swelled he dug down deep for the win, riding confidently and aggressively in the velodrome to keep any attackers on his right shoulder. I wasn't much of a Degenkolb fan, if ever, but this race has made me sit and take note of the German's impressive characteristics, especially after his ride in Flanders.

Vanmarcke looked like he might have found something, but I didn't believe it and it didn't last long, in fact he just didn't have it. Agree with CJ that Luke Rowe is one to keep handy for the future. As is MC's Senechal, still need to confirm that with another view of the race, but I believe he fits nicely in the young guns stable of which my Benoot is already a resident. Nice ride by Roelandts again. "Lunatic" Vandenbergh says it nicely. Boom would've wanted it wet again no doubt, but I thought his ride was very neurotic. Mug status goes to my fellow countryman and holder of the Green and Gold National Jersey, Heinrich Haussler -- looked like an amateur! Wiggins didn't do much wrong, I didn't think, perhaps just the pressure got to him at key moments.

Cheers,
SP

Also, Sagan rode prominently but had shifter issues which gave him an excuse. SP