*Paris-Nice* Sunday 8th March - Sunday 15th March

Teams

Wiggins 2012

Sagan 2010

FFS Porte wins on Col d'Eze 2013

the Badger resorting to the law of the fist with striking miners disputing the stage

Fignon 1987

Cancellara 2006

Betancur wins 2014

Paris - Nice is always quality and some fantastic pictures there from over the years , thank you marychain


i couldn't be backing Porte @11/8 to win to win anything , definitely a lay if you can even though he has lost some weight in winter

i think this race is wide open and we could see a suprise winner at huge odds

Warren Barguil Is 150/1 with the lads

i will have a saver on Rui Costa @ 33/1

good luck everyone

Was thinking about Rui Costa myself. Could be that this parcours suits him, even the main mountain top finish on Stage 4 is steady rather than steep and the TTs could suit him. He's got a great record in week long stage races and is a good price. Barguil is quality, will come good at some stage. Worth a poke at the price.

keep it going you guys...great write ups as always.
i've started using the forum again thanks to MC, CM and SP et al.

It's easier and more informative than using the cycling news website!!

I tend to keep my powder dry for the early season stage races and just pick off the odd stage here and there...

although Porte certainly won't be on my backing list for this one....GL all

Paddy Power have gone 20/1 on Majka now, so I've joined you on him as well SP.

Great read and looking forward to the race. Feck all liquidity or even competitive prices on here though. Cycling might be the great 'new' sport for many, but betting on it is still in its infancy. The book here is almost embarrassing. Not sure what can be done though

I see you've made a decision on Aru MC, but I am going to resist him. He's first-up from a start, and right into a big race. He is young and young riders can come up with a good result whilst fresh, however he hasn't formed a historical basis to inspire confidence for this, even at 40/1. Agree with his potential, that's obviously there, but - at this stage - I'd want 40/1 and the promise of liquidity to get involved with him into a potential trading position, only.

The only other one I'm looking closely at is Geraint Thomas, but the Porte and Wiggins scenarios are causing too much conflict and I'm willing to wait.

In regard to Porte I'm leaning with CM -- definitely think he is way too short at that price, and is approaching a decent - controlled-liability - lay.

Porte is an experienced climber from Australia who has a respected position within the team, and in-fact he came straight out-of-the-boxes with a first-up start win to claim the highly-competitive National Championship in the ITT. Next up, he failed winning the Tour Down Under on GC by only two seconds on the Queen Stage of Willunga Hill from compatriot Rohan Dennis. He was quite competitive but certainly wasn't devastating, and perhaps was a little fragile, even. I would suggest he underestimated Dennis a little, in any case, and deserved to lose. (If I remember correctly I believe I read from the TdU thread, that you picked Dennis at 49/1 straight out, so congratulations on a magnificent start to the season MC -- I hope there's more to come;-)

Anyway, around this time last year a host of factors were derailing Porte's season and competitiveness, both with illness and crashes and being stretched with stop-gap measures for the benefit of the team's big-picture. Conversely, this year, he has a very good start to the season, appears relaxed and comfortable, and is obviously the short-priced favourite for the win here, so everything is set for him to have a competitive race.

So, the question becomes: Is his condition so advanced that he is the clear captain or dominant rider in the SKY team? Especially when considering his price against his team-mates? Is he that far advanced on Wiggins and Thomas? The news out of SKY is that Wiggins is riding in a supporting role, even though he won this race in 2012. Fair enough. However, Thomas is a different story though, he was wearing the Yellow Jersey here last year when he crashed out of the race, and it appears that he has GC aspirations alongside that of Porte. Which might unsettle Porte a little, especially since he was so stretched by the team last year and might have expected some more faith to be shown in him by the team as a form of compensation, this year. Not to be, though. So there's some discomfort there, in the least, and we know SKY have a habit of causing such a situation to fester into something more significant.

So, Porte's price: I would argue that such a short price commands the rider to come straight out with a commanding lead in the race, and that the stages following are of such a description which would make protecting the lead relatively easy. Firstly, I don't think he'll be leading, and secondly the opening stages are open to major disruptions on account of the potential for cross-winds, which all suggests he has to rely on luck just to be in contention once stage 4 appears, let alone leading with some handy seconds by then. With some more liability I would have no hesitation to lay him for ***. As it turns out I'm willing to lay him for *.

Good luck,
SP

Dennis sets the time they'll all have to beat with 7.40. Hope they don't make him sit on that stupid throne for the next three hours.

Shocker from Wiggins, cracking ride from the World Champ to win that. Dennis beaten by less than a second. Some poor times in there from my GC guys, already have time to make up.

I've had two small each way dabbles on Coquard and Demare today. The latter has to come good at some point, surely?

If there was anymore evidence required, in relation to how Geraint Thomas is treating this race, the concluding part of stage 2 showed it. Attempting to steal a break with Boom and Tony Martin in the final few kilometres, in order to gain - what might've been - only a few seconds, was a clear signal of his ambition to win this race. It might've taken a little out of him, but I don't think it was anything so significant that he will suffer for it in stage 4. Nice to see the Gorilla back in the Winner's Circle. Tougher stage tomorrow, wind shouldn't be an issue, expecting a bigger group numbering the break, though. SP

Pre-race interviews said they both were going in as leaders depending on the circumstances. Pretty sure if it's just the two SKY riders left and Porte is feeling good G will work for him.

Wouldn't surprise me if one of them(G would make more sense) attacks early on the climb today.

I've got this down as a stage for Bling and takens 4/1 and also had a few quid on Kwiatowski at 16/1, he will be pretty motivated to get a few seconds here and is pretty quick in a finish if the real fast men aren't there.