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marychain1
01 Mar 15 17:11
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Paris-Nice, the race to the sun, the first of the season's World Tour stage races. The list of past winners is impressive, and the racing will be hard. The weather could play a part, and we should get to see some fun and games. There's plenty here for sprinters, there's a prologue and a Mountain TT. Climbers and GC contenders will earmark stage 4 and possibly Stage 6. And if things are very close we'll see it decided on the slopes of Col d'Eze in the TT.

8th March - Prologue  »  Maurepas  ›  Maurepas   (6.7k)
9th March - Stage 1 (flat)  »  Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse  ›  Contres   (192k)
10th March - Stage 2  (flat) »  Zoo Parc de Beauval  ›  Saint-Amand-Montrond   (172k)
11th March - Stage 3 (flat) »  Saint-Amand-Montrond  ›  Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule   (179k)
12th March - Stage 4  (mountain) »  Varennes-sur-Allier  ›  Croix de Chaubouret   (204k)
13th March - Stage 5  (medium mountain/flat finish) »  Saint-Etienne  ›  Rasteau   (192k)
14th March - Stage 6 (mountain) »  Vence  ›  Nice   (181.5k)
15th March - Stage 7 (mountain ITT)  »  Nice  ›  Col d'Eˆze   (9.6k)

Startlist
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149858&c=3



2014   
BETANCUR Carlos
COSTA Rui
VICHOT Arthur

2013   
PORTE Richie
TALANSKY Andrew
PERAUD Jean-Christophe

2012    
WIGGINS Bradley
WESTRA Lieuwe
VALVERDE Alejandro

2011   
MARTIN Tony
KLöDEN Andréas
WIGGINS Bradley

2010    
CONTADOR Alberto
VALVERDE Alejandro
SANCHEZ Luis Leon
KREUZIGER Roman

2009    
SANCHEZ Luis Leon
SCHLECK Fränk
CHAVANEL Sylvain

2008    
REBELLIN Davide
NOCENTINI Rinaldo
POPOVYCH Yaroslav

2007   
CONTADOR Alberto
REBELLIN Davide
SANCHEZ Luis Leon

2006    
LANDIS Floyd
JAVIER 'PATXI' VILA Francisco
COLOM Antonio

2005    
JULICH Bobby
VALVERDE Alejandro
ZABALLA Constantino
Pause Switch to Standard View *Paris-Nice* Sunday 8th March -...
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Report marychain1 March 5, 2015 9:14 AM GMT
Teams
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 8:34 AM GMT
Only Bet £3.65 priced this up yet

Prices:

Porte 11/8
TJVG 9/2
Talansky 12/1
Kwiatowski 12/1
Majka 12/1
Kelderman 12/1
Aru 20/1
Thomas 20/1
Costa 25/1
Bardet 28/1
Westra 33/1
Spilak 33/1
Inxausti 40/1
Izagirre, I 50/1
Fuglsang 50/1
Machado 50/1
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:21 PM GMT

Wiggins 2012
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:21 PM GMT

Vinokourov 2004
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:22 PM GMT

Sagan 2010
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:23 PM GMT

Porte wins on Col d'Eze 2014
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:23 PM GMT
FFS Porte wins on Col d'Eze 2013
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:24 PM GMT

David Millar 2007
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:25 PM GMT

the Badger resorting to the law of the fist with striking miners disputing the stage
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:25 PM GMT

Gilbert in the rainbow jersey 2013
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:26 PM GMT

Fignon 1987
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:26 PM GMT

Contador 2009
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:27 PM GMT

Cancellara 2006
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:27 PM GMT

Boardman on Promenade des Anglais 1996
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:28 PM GMT

Betancur wins 2014
Report marychain1 March 6, 2015 1:28 PM GMT

Jacques Anquetil 1965
Report cedarmaster March 6, 2015 9:45 PM GMT
Paris - Nice is always quality and some fantastic pictures there from over the years , thank you marychain


i couldn't be backing Porte @11/8 to win to win anything , definitely a lay if you can even though he has lost some weight in winter

i think this race is wide open and we could see a suprise winner at huge odds

Warren Barguil Is 150/1 with the lads

i will have a saver on Rui Costa @ 33/1

good luck everyone
Report cedarmaster March 6, 2015 9:45 PM GMT
Paris - Nice is always quality and some fantastic pictures there from over the years , thank you marychain


i couldn't be backing Porte @11/8 to win to win anything , definitely a lay if you can even though he has lost some weight in winter

i think this race is wide open and we could see a suprise winner at huge odds

Warren Barguil Is 150/1 with the lads

i will have a saver on Rui Costa @ 33/1

good luck everyone
Report marychain1 March 7, 2015 2:27 PM GMT
Was thinking about Rui Costa myself. Could be that this parcours suits him, even the main mountain top finish on Stage 4 is steady rather than steep and the TTs could suit him. He's got a great record in week long stage races and is a good price. Barguil is quality, will come good at some stage. Worth a poke at the price.
Report SwingingPick March 7, 2015 6:22 PM GMT
Hey CM, hey MC.

Paris-Nice is very-much a prestigious race with lots of history and importance, and riders are motivated to win it, especially as it is the first European WT race of the season.

Polish climber Rafal Majka had his breakthrough season last year by nabbing two TdF stages along with the Polkadot jersey, and then parlaying that performance by winning his home Tour of Poland as a commanding favourite, from a couple of handy Spaniards. At the start line here, he has been given captaincy at TCS, and with it the weight of expectation. Nevertheless, he is the kind of rider who will relish the responsibility, and he has proved he can handle the pressure of expectation on account of being able to rely on his strength in the climbs. Moreover, Majka has been working on his TT skills in the off-season and he will need to show it here, early. He has had a decent hit-out in the Tour of Oman, finishing just off the podium in 4th place, where the Green Mountain stage 4 set-up the GC result on account of stage 5 being cancelled due to sandstorm and heat.

From the past three years it is clear that the best climber -- not a necessarily a rider who can climb like Rui Costa -- goes on to win this race, and Majka certainly looks the standout climber on best form and some luck.

The potential for cross-winds is a factor on the opening few stages in causing some major disruptions and time-gaps to form, but the stage 4 mountain-top finish with its 10km at 6.7% should assemble the GC in favour of the best climbers, and I expect Majka to be there contending.

** Rafal Majka. 16/1 PP. Some value. Rated highly. Expect forward showing.

Good luck,
SP
Report tashkent terror March 7, 2015 7:48 PM GMT
keep it going you guys...great write ups as always.
i've started using the forum again thanks to MC, CM and SP et al.

It's easier and more informative than using the cycling news website!!

I tend to keep my powder dry for the early season stage races and just pick off the odd stage here and there...

although Porte certainly won't be on my backing list for this one....GL all
Report marychain1 March 7, 2015 11:07 PM GMT
Worth noting that Spoils are going 4 places on the outright for Paris-Nice, although only 1/5 on the places. I'm not going to be around much for the next week or so because I've got a work conference and the Cheltenham Festival, so my posting might be a little sporadic. For the outright I think Porte is a worthy favourite, but he's short enough. I like the look of Andrew Talansky, he should be able to stay with them on the climbs and will be suited by Col d'Eze. He was second to Porte in the TT and the GC in 2013. He's got some cracking form in other similar races too, with 2nd in Romandie in 2012 and winning Criterium du Dauphine last year in spectacular fashion. 14/1 on here.

Other than the final stage, the most decisive stage from a GC point of view will probably be Stage 4 on Thursday to Croix de Chaubouret Here's the profile and finish.

Profile


Finish


In the Prologue I fancy Wiggins to beat Tony Martin. It's flat which favours Wiggo, and Wiggins is apparently more powerful and heavier than he was towards the end of last year which should also favour him. I've taken 5/1. I think Rohan Dennis could be the third man on the podium.
Report marychain1 March 7, 2015 11:41 PM GMT
Paddy Power have gone 20/1 on Majka now, so I've joined you on him as well SP.
Report marychain1 March 8, 2015 12:28 AM GMT
Other man who appeals at a price is Aru at 33/1. He was superb in the Giro and the Vuelta last year, he leads Astana and if the team troubles aren't playing on their minds he could go well. We know he goes well in a mountain TT from his second in the Giro, and if he's race ready then he could go well. Can't make up my mind on this one, going to sleep on it.
Report jumper March 8, 2015 9:04 AM GMT
Great read and looking forward to the race. Feck all liquidity or even competitive prices on here though. Cycling might be the great 'new' sport for many, but betting on it is still in its infancy. The book here is almost embarrassing. Not sure what can be done though
Report marychain1 March 8, 2015 9:33 AM GMT
Yeah, they only put the book up yesterday. Frigging ridiculous. I've backed Talansky for the outright here, and had my each way bet on Dennis for the prologue on here (both on the sportsbook). I've now added Aru at 40/1 with PP.
Report SwingingPick March 8, 2015 12:45 PM GMT
I see you've made a decision on Aru MC, but I am going to resist him. He's first-up from a start, and right into a big race. He is young and young riders can come up with a good result whilst fresh, however he hasn't formed a historical basis to inspire confidence for this, even at 40/1. Agree with his potential, that's obviously there, but - at this stage - I'd want 40/1 and the promise of liquidity to get involved with him into a potential trading position, only.

The only other one I'm looking closely at is Geraint Thomas, but the Porte and Wiggins scenarios are causing too much conflict and I'm willing to wait.

In regard to Porte I'm leaning with CM -- definitely think he is way too short at that price, and is approaching a decent - controlled-liability - lay.

Porte is an experienced climber from Australia who has a respected position within the team, and in-fact he came straight out-of-the-boxes with a first-up start win to claim the highly-competitive National Championship in the ITT. Next up, he failed winning the Tour Down Under on GC by only two seconds on the Queen Stage of Willunga Hill from compatriot Rohan Dennis. He was quite competitive but certainly wasn't devastating, and perhaps was a little fragile, even. I would suggest he underestimated Dennis a little, in any case, and deserved to lose. (If I remember correctly I believe I read from the TdU thread, that you picked Dennis at 49/1 straight out, so congratulations on a magnificent start to the season MC -- I hope there's more to come;-)

Anyway, around this time last year a host of factors were derailing Porte's season and competitiveness, both with illness and crashes and being stretched with stop-gap measures for the benefit of the team's big-picture. Conversely, this year, he has a very good start to the season, appears relaxed and comfortable, and is obviously the short-priced favourite for the win here, so everything is set for him to have a competitive race.

So, the question becomes: Is his condition so advanced that he is the clear captain or dominant rider in the SKY team? Especially when considering his price against his team-mates? Is he that far advanced on Wiggins and Thomas? The news out of SKY is that Wiggins is riding in a supporting role, even though he won this race in 2012. Fair enough. However, Thomas is a different story though, he was wearing the Yellow Jersey here last year when he crashed out of the race, and it appears that he has GC aspirations alongside that of Porte. Which might unsettle Porte a little, especially since he was so stretched by the team last year and might have expected some more faith to be shown in him by the team as a form of compensation, this year. Not to be, though. So there's some discomfort there, in the least, and we know SKY have a habit of causing such a situation to fester into something more significant.

So, Porte's price: I would argue that such a short price commands the rider to come straight out with a commanding lead in the race, and that the stages following are of such a description which would make protecting the lead relatively easy. Firstly, I don't think he'll be leading, and secondly the opening stages are open to major disruptions on account of the potential for cross-winds, which all suggests he has to rely on luck just to be in contention once stage 4 appears, let alone leading with some handy seconds by then. With some more liability I would have no hesitation to lay him for ***. As it turns out I'm willing to lay him for *.

Good luck,
SP
Report marychain1 March 8, 2015 1:53 PM GMT
Apparently Aru is riding for Fuglsang Cry
Report marychain1 March 8, 2015 1:58 PM GMT
Dennis sets the time they'll all have to beat with 7.40. Hope they don't make him sit on that stupid throne for the next three hours.
Report cedarmaster March 8, 2015 3:42 PM GMT
prologue result

1st  Kwiatowski
2nd  Dennis       +0
3rd  Martin       +7
4th  LL Sanchez   +10
5th  Boom         +10
6th  Degenkolb    +10
7th  Chavanel     +10
8th  Matthews     +12
9th  Dumoulin     +13
10th Thomas       +14
Report marychain1 March 8, 2015 4:10 PM GMT
Shocker from Wiggins, cracking ride from the World Champ to win that. Dennis beaten by less than a second. Some poor times in there from my GC guys, already have time to make up.
Report marychain1 March 8, 2015 9:41 PM GMT
No sportsbook markets again for Stage 1...let's just all email them, tweet them, live chat them. Keep asking for the markets if they aren't up by 6 the night before.
Report marychain1 March 9, 2015 10:05 AM GMT
I've had two small each way dabbles on Coquard and Demare today. The latter has to come good at some point, surely?
Report SwingingPick March 9, 2015 2:43 PM GMT
Kwiatkowski's excellent ride to win the prologue, suggests the work he has put in during the off-season has been toward the area of his development as more of a classics rider. I therefore think he should still blow-up on the stage 4 mountain-top finish, but given the swift improvement he has taken in his riding, yet again, I'm not as confident as I was before the start. Not willing to lay him, but won't take a saver on him, either. Geraint Thomas looks good, will be looking to add him.

One rider I want to get a good look at in this race is the 23yo Argentinian, Eduardo Sepulveda, apparently he can do a decent climb so it'll be good to see if he can stay with the company of the class riders on the climbs.

Cheers,
SP
Report SwingingPick March 10, 2015 6:35 PM GMT
If there was anymore evidence required, in relation to how Geraint Thomas is treating this race, the concluding part of stage 2 showed it. Attempting to steal a break with Boom and Tony Martin in the final few kilometres, in order to gain - what might've been - only a few seconds, was a clear signal of his ambition to win this race. It might've taken a little out of him, but I don't think it was anything so significant that he will suffer for it in stage 4. Nice to see the Gorilla back in the Winner's Circle. Tougher stage tomorrow, wind shouldn't be an issue, expecting a bigger group numbering the break, though. SP
Report nugget March 12, 2015 9:45 AM GMT
i like G, think he is a class rider. had him in the comm games road race..
do you think he will ride for his team leader who happens to be the race favourite?
Report CJ70 March 12, 2015 12:30 PM GMT
Pre-race interviews said they both were going in as leaders depending on the circumstances. Pretty sure if it's just the two SKY riders left and Porte is feeling good G will work for him.

Wouldn't surprise me if one of them(G would make more sense) attacks early on the climb today.
Report SwingingPick March 12, 2015 5:43 PM GMT
Okay, plenty of things to evaluate from an -- as expected -- exciting stage of racing.

Kwiatkowski didn't really show anything we haven't seen from him before, but I did get that sense of another leap in improvement in yet another aspect of his riding. It was a solid ride, good fighting, however the climb was quite easy, and Porte provided impetus for him by dangling like a carrot. I don't think Kwiatkowski can win this if it comes down to the Col d'Eze shoot-out on current time gaps, but the finishing geography seems to suit him over the next couple of stages, and if he can organize a break he can win this race prior to the ITT showdown. His price is ridiculous, though, taking into account all those factors.

When Porte rides like that, fights like that, he shows he is on an improving form arc. Lately though, he seems to fail to back up for another climbing stage when he throws it down. Since there isn't a repeat of similar climbing tomorrow, only really the cat.3 some 8.5kms from finish, there is no question mark over him backing-up and he is therefore rightfully considered to be in the box-seat by the Books to win on GC. It looks increasingly likely that it will come down to the ITT on the Col, as some forecasters predicted prior to the start, and knowing who will win there can only be predicted by having on-the-ground information prior to the start -- witnessing who has a hop in their step, if you will.

Porte has won on the Col d'Eze before, in 2013, when he blasted up the gruelling 9.6km mountain sprint to secure his win on GC. That will be a significant advantage for him, although G is not out of it by an stretch, since team loyalties do not exist in the ITT, and you could tell it means a lot to both of them to beat the other in a fair shoot-out such as this. I might have enjoyed a nice green-screen if not for the Porte lay, however I'm still willing to stick with those bets on account of today's evidence. Essentially, the initial price discrepancy was wrong since there's not that much between them, Porte maybe is looking slightly better because of that desperate drive and hunger being shown, but G is looking for a chance to gain a big scalp and is right in the mix, but a bit behind, I think.

Obviously TCS lost the plot and burned Majka, but really to be fair he didn't look on TdF form, and he just wasn't going to work out, here. Kelderman was thoroughly disappointing, and Sepulveda was a bit of a miss.

Tomorrow's stage 5 is tailor-made for Gilbert and he has been quite active in the race, so expecting to make a play on him at the right odds.

Good luck,
SP
Report marychain1 March 13, 2015 12:04 AM GMT
I've got this down as a stage for Bling and takens 4/1 and also had a few quid on Kwiatowski at 16/1, he will be pretty motivated to get a few seconds here and is pretty quick in a finish if the real fast men aren't there.
Report marychain1 March 14, 2015 1:12 PM GMT
31 man break is up the road in today's P-N Stage 6. I've chanced Thomas and Gallopin today.
Report marychain1 March 14, 2015 3:47 PM GMT
Poels wins in T-A and Gallopin wins at P-N. Didn't have a double though. Laugh
Report SwingingPick March 15, 2015 3:28 AM GMT
Well done, MC. I suspect you got Gallopin out of the break?

In 2013, when Porte won this race, Gallopin rode the Col d'Eze stage in 36th place +1.56 down on Porte, who won the stage. After winning yesterday's stage in very tough conditions, it's a big ask to expect Gallopin to back-up with such a strong performance that he protects his .36+ lead in a discipline where he is not an expert and which is made tougher by effectively being a mountain sprint. I therefore believe that this race is still between Porte and G, and the price discrepancy suggests G is better value, although as I stated earlier Porte looks a little better. The only thing I would add is that Porte might require the impetus of being surrounded by his opposition, and riding solo in the ITT may cause him to feel a little flat in his present shape, however the advantage of having won here two years ago will be a significant advantage and on paper Porte is the winner.

I'm on G. SP
Report marychain1 March 15, 2015 9:36 AM GMT
I put Gallopin on the night before. I've laid Porte for the outright at PN today. Looks like we all got the wrong Sky rider for T-A. Wonder if Sky can protect Poels today? Mental how strong they've been after their altitude training camp.
Report nugget March 15, 2015 10:36 AM GMT
very strong headwind, should suit g.thomas
Report nugget March 15, 2015 10:50 AM GMT
"I do not know what to expect. It will be difficult, but I do definitely my best. I know the Col d'Eze really well. I climbed on the at least 20 times in training this winter. It is not too hard, it is not just for climbers, " said Tony Gallopin.

Seems confident
Report CJ70 March 15, 2015 12:06 PM GMT
Taken G as well, Richie's weight will go against him in a headwind. Should be a 1,2 though.
Report nugget March 15, 2015 1:44 PM GMT
demolition
Report marychain1 March 15, 2015 7:56 PM GMT
Sky's plan is to win every race between now and Beijing
Report SwingingPick March 16, 2015 2:58 PM GMT
Sometimes it's just better to follow the paper trail, and this was one such case.

PARIS-NICE          
             2013       2015   
PORTE
Report SwingingPick March 16, 2015 3:23 PM GMT
PARS-NICE                                                 
2013      COL d'EZE STAGE WINNER: PORTE             
                   STAGE FINISH 36TH: GALLOPIN +1.56
2015      COL d'EZE STAGE WINNER: PORTE             
                   STAGE FINISH 29TH: GALLOPIN +1.39


I think with such strong data, the G scenario shouldn't have really been brought into it. Moreover, Porte won the National ITT title earlier this year, which whilst over a much longer distance, nevertheless showed he was still committed to the discipline, and this perhaps should have been more closely scrutinized.

In conclusion; the stage 4 finish comes to mind as showing Porte fighting hard to close down the gap to teammate G, when he was isolated. Without having to back up the next day on another climb, he could build on that great ride in terms of confidence. G was just never involved in the ITT, and has disappointed himself as for his captaincy chances at SKY. SP
Report nugget March 19, 2015 1:24 AM GMT
sky looking good for roubaix?
Report cedarmaster March 21, 2015 8:33 PM GMT
not a good result for me but well done to Porte, still not convinced he can step up to be a player  the Giro. My apologies to Warren Barguil for putting the kiss of death on him
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