Paris-Nice, the race to the sun, the first of the season's World Tour stage races. The list of past winners is impressive, and the racing will be hard. The weather could play a part, and we should get to see some fun and games. There's plenty here for sprinters, there's a prologue and a Mountain TT. Climbers and GC contenders will earmark stage 4 and possibly Stage 6. And if things are very close we'll see it decided on the slopes of Col d'Eze in the TT.
Porte 11/8 TJVG 9/2 Talansky 12/1 Kwiatowski 12/1 Majka 12/1 Kelderman 12/1 Aru 20/1 Thomas 20/1 Costa 25/1 Bardet 28/1 Westra 33/1 Spilak 33/1 Inxausti 40/1 Izagirre, I 50/1 Fuglsang 50/1 Machado 50/1
Only Bet £3.65 priced this up yetPrices:Porte 11/8TJVG 9/2Talansky 12/1Kwiatowski 12/1Majka 12/1Kelderman 12/1Aru 20/1Thomas 20/1Costa 25/1Bardet 28/1Westra 33/1Spilak 33/1Inxausti 40/1Izagirre, I 50/1Fuglsang 50/1Machado 50/1
Paris - Nice is always quality and some fantastic pictures there from over the years , thank you marychain
i couldn't be backing Porte @11/8 to win to win anything , definitely a lay if you can even though he has lost some weight in winter
i think this race is wide open and we could see a suprise winner at huge odds
Warren Barguil Is 150/1 with the lads
i will have a saver on Rui Costa @ 33/1
good luck everyone
Paris - Nice is always quality and some fantastic pictures there from over the years , thank you marychaini couldn't be backing Porte @11/8 to win to win anything , definitely a lay if you can even though he has lost some weight in winteri think this
Paris - Nice is always quality and some fantastic pictures there from over the years , thank you marychain
i couldn't be backing Porte @11/8 to win to win anything , definitely a lay if you can even though he has lost some weight in winter
i think this race is wide open and we could see a suprise winner at huge odds
Warren Barguil Is 150/1 with the lads
i will have a saver on Rui Costa @ 33/1
good luck everyone
Paris - Nice is always quality and some fantastic pictures there from over the years , thank you marychaini couldn't be backing Porte @11/8 to win to win anything , definitely a lay if you can even though he has lost some weight in winteri think this
Was thinking about Rui Costa myself. Could be that this parcours suits him, even the main mountain top finish on Stage 4 is steady rather than steep and the TTs could suit him. He's got a great record in week long stage races and is a good price. Barguil is quality, will come good at some stage. Worth a poke at the price.
Was thinking about Rui Costa myself. Could be that this parcours suits him, even the main mountain top finish on Stage 4 is steady rather than steep and the TTs could suit him. He's got a great record in week long stage races and is a good price. Bar
Paris-Nice is very-much a prestigious race with lots of history and importance, and riders are motivated to win it, especially as it is the first European WT race of the season.
Polish climber Rafal Majka had his breakthrough season last year by nabbing two TdF stages along with the Polkadot jersey, and then parlaying that performance by winning his home Tour of Poland as a commanding favourite, from a couple of handy Spaniards. At the start line here, he has been given captaincy at TCS, and with it the weight of expectation. Nevertheless, he is the kind of rider who will relish the responsibility, and he has proved he can handle the pressure of expectation on account of being able to rely on his strength in the climbs. Moreover, Majka has been working on his TT skills in the off-season and he will need to show it here, early. He has had a decent hit-out in the Tour of Oman, finishing just off the podium in 4th place, where the Green Mountain stage 4 set-up the GC result on account of stage 5 being cancelled due to sandstorm and heat.
From the past three years it is clear that the best climber -- not a necessarily a rider who can climb like Rui Costa -- goes on to win this race, and Majka certainly looks the standout climber on best form and some luck.
The potential for cross-winds is a factor on the opening few stages in causing some major disruptions and time-gaps to form, but the stage 4 mountain-top finish with its 10km at 6.7% should assemble the GC in favour of the best climbers, and I expect Majka to be there contending.
** Rafal Majka. 16/1 PP. Some value. Rated highly. Expect forward showing.
Good luck, SP
Hey CM, hey MC. Paris-Nice is very-much a prestigious race with lots of history and importance, and riders are motivated to win it, especially as it is the first European WT race of the season. Polish climber Rafal Majka had his breakthrough season l
keep it going you guys...great write ups as always. i've started using the forum again thanks to MC, CM and SP et al.
It's easier and more informative than using the cycling news website!!
I tend to keep my powder dry for the early season stage races and just pick off the odd stage here and there...
although Porte certainly won't be on my backing list for this one....GL all
keep it going you guys...great write ups as always.i've started using the forum again thanks to MC, CM and SP et al.It's easier and more informative than using the cycling news website!!I tend to keep my powder dry for the early season stage races an
Worth noting that Spoils are going 4 places on the outright for Paris-Nice, although only 1/5 on the places. I'm not going to be around much for the next week or so because I've got a work conference and the Cheltenham Festival, so my posting might be a little sporadic. For the outright I think Porte is a worthy favourite, but he's short enough. I like the look of Andrew Talansky, he should be able to stay with them on the climbs and will be suited by Col d'Eze. He was second to Porte in the TT and the GC in 2013. He's got some cracking form in other similar races too, with 2nd in Romandie in 2012 and winning Criterium du Dauphine last year in spectacular fashion. 14/1 on here.
Other than the final stage, the most decisive stage from a GC point of view will probably be Stage 4 on Thursday to Croix de Chaubouret Here's the profile and finish.
Profile
Finish
In the Prologue I fancy Wiggins to beat Tony Martin. It's flat which favours Wiggo, and Wiggins is apparently more powerful and heavier than he was towards the end of last year which should also favour him. I've taken 5/1. I think Rohan Dennis could be the third man on the podium.
Worth noting that Spoils are going 4 places on the outright for Paris-Nice, although only 1/5 on the places. I'm not going to be around much for the next week or so because I've got a work conference and the Cheltenham Festival, so my posting might b
Other man who appeals at a price is Aru at 33/1. He was superb in the Giro and the Vuelta last year, he leads Astana and if the team troubles aren't playing on their minds he could go well. We know he goes well in a mountain TT from his second in the Giro, and if he's race ready then he could go well. Can't make up my mind on this one, going to sleep on it.
Other man who appeals at a price is Aru at 33/1. He was superb in the Giro and the Vuelta last year, he leads Astana and if the team troubles aren't playing on their minds he could go well. We know he goes well in a mountain TT from his second in the
Great read and looking forward to the race. Feck all liquidity or even competitive prices on here though. Cycling might be the great 'new' sport for many, but betting on it is still in its infancy. The book here is almost embarrassing. Not sure what can be done though
Great read and looking forward to the race. Feck all liquidity or even competitive prices on here though. Cycling might be the great 'new' sport for many, but betting on it is still in its infancy. The book here is almost embarrassing. Not sure what
Yeah, they only put the book up yesterday. Frigging ridiculous. I've backed Talansky for the outright here, and had my each way bet on Dennis for the prologue on here (both on the sportsbook). I've now added Aru at 40/1 with PP.
Yeah, they only put the book up yesterday. Frigging ridiculous. I've backed Talansky for the outright here, and had my each way bet on Dennis for the prologue on here (both on the sportsbook). I've now added Aru at 40/1 with PP.
I see you've made a decision on Aru MC, but I am going to resist him. He's first-up from a start, and right into a big race. He is young and young riders can come up with a good result whilst fresh, however he hasn't formed a historical basis to inspire confidence for this, even at 40/1. Agree with his potential, that's obviously there, but - at this stage - I'd want 40/1 and the promise of liquidity to get involved with him into a potential trading position, only.
The only other one I'm looking closely at is Geraint Thomas, but the Porte and Wiggins scenarios are causing too much conflict and I'm willing to wait.
In regard to Porte I'm leaning with CM -- definitely think he is way too short at that price, and is approaching a decent - controlled-liability - lay.
Porte is an experienced climber from Australia who has a respected position within the team, and in-fact he came straight out-of-the-boxes with a first-up start win to claim the highly-competitive National Championship in the ITT. Next up, he failed winning the Tour Down Under on GC by only two seconds on the Queen Stage of Willunga Hill from compatriot Rohan Dennis. He was quite competitive but certainly wasn't devastating, and perhaps was a little fragile, even. I would suggest he underestimated Dennis a little, in any case, and deserved to lose. (If I remember correctly I believe I read from the TdU thread, that you picked Dennis at 49/1 straight out, so congratulations on a magnificent start to the season MC -- I hope there's more to come;-)
Anyway, around this time last year a host of factors were derailing Porte's season and competitiveness, both with illness and crashes and being stretched with stop-gap measures for the benefit of the team's big-picture. Conversely, this year, he has a very good start to the season, appears relaxed and comfortable, and is obviously the short-priced favourite for the win here, so everything is set for him to have a competitive race.
So, the question becomes: Is his condition so advanced that he is the clear captain or dominant rider in the SKY team? Especially when considering his price against his team-mates? Is he that far advanced on Wiggins and Thomas? The news out of SKY is that Wiggins is riding in a supporting role, even though he won this race in 2012. Fair enough. However, Thomas is a different story though, he was wearing the Yellow Jersey here last year when he crashed out of the race, and it appears that he has GC aspirations alongside that of Porte. Which might unsettle Porte a little, especially since he was so stretched by the team last year and might have expected some more faith to be shown in him by the team as a form of compensation, this year. Not to be, though. So there's some discomfort there, in the least, and we know SKY have a habit of causing such a situation to fester into something more significant.
So, Porte's price: I would argue that such a short price commands the rider to come straight out with a commanding lead in the race, and that the stages following are of such a description which would make protecting the lead relatively easy. Firstly, I don't think he'll be leading, and secondly the opening stages are open to major disruptions on account of the potential for cross-winds, which all suggests he has to rely on luck just to be in contention once stage 4 appears, let alone leading with some handy seconds by then. With some more liability I would have no hesitation to lay him for ***. As it turns out I'm willing to lay him for *.
Good luck, SP
I see you've made a decision on Aru MC, but I am going to resist him. He's first-up from a start, and right into a big race. He is young and young riders can come up with a good result whilst fresh, however he hasn't formed a historical basis to insp
Shocker from Wiggins, cracking ride from the World Champ to win that. Dennis beaten by less than a second. Some poor times in there from my GC guys, already have time to make up.
Shocker from Wiggins, cracking ride from the World Champ to win that. Dennis beaten by less than a second. Some poor times in there from my GC guys, already have time to make up.
No sportsbook markets again for Stage 1...let's just all email them, tweet them, live chat them. Keep asking for the markets if they aren't up by 6 the night before.
No sportsbook markets again for Stage 1...let's just all email them, tweet them, live chat them. Keep asking for the markets if they aren't up by 6 the night before.
Kwiatkowski's excellent ride to win the prologue, suggests the work he has put in during the off-season has been toward the area of his development as more of a classics rider. I therefore think he should still blow-up on the stage 4 mountain-top finish, but given the swift improvement he has taken in his riding, yet again, I'm not as confident as I was before the start. Not willing to lay him, but won't take a saver on him, either. Geraint Thomas looks good, will be looking to add him.
One rider I want to get a good look at in this race is the 23yo Argentinian, Eduardo Sepulveda, apparently he can do a decent climb so it'll be good to see if he can stay with the company of the class riders on the climbs.
Cheers, SP
Kwiatkowski's excellent ride to win the prologue, suggests the work he has put in during the off-season has been toward the area of his development as more of a classics rider. I therefore think he should still blow-up on the stage 4 mountain-top fin
If there was anymore evidence required, in relation to how Geraint Thomas is treating this race, the concluding part of stage 2 showed it. Attempting to steal a break with Boom and Tony Martin in the final few kilometres, in order to gain - what might've been - only a few seconds, was a clear signal of his ambition to win this race. It might've taken a little out of him, but I don't think it was anything so significant that he will suffer for it in stage 4. Nice to see the Gorilla back in the Winner's Circle. Tougher stage tomorrow, wind shouldn't be an issue, expecting a bigger group numbering the break, though. SP
If there was anymore evidence required, in relation to how Geraint Thomas is treating this race, the concluding part of stage 2 showed it. Attempting to steal a break with Boom and Tony Martin in the final few kilometres, in order to gain - what migh
i like G, think he is a class rider. had him in the comm games road race.. do you think he will ride for his team leader who happens to be the race favourite?
i like G, think he is a class rider. had him in the comm games road race..do you think he will ride for his team leader who happens to be the race favourite?
Pre-race interviews said they both were going in as leaders depending on the circumstances. Pretty sure if it's just the two SKY riders left and Porte is feeling good G will work for him.
Wouldn't surprise me if one of them(G would make more sense) attacks early on the climb today.
Pre-race interviews said they both were going in as leaders depending on the circumstances. Pretty sure if it's just the two SKY riders left and Porte is feeling good G will work for him. Wouldn't surprise me if one of them(G would make more sense) a
Okay, plenty of things to evaluate from an -- as expected -- exciting stage of racing.
Kwiatkowski didn't really show anything we haven't seen from him before, but I did get that sense of another leap in improvement in yet another aspect of his riding. It was a solid ride, good fighting, however the climb was quite easy, and Porte provided impetus for him by dangling like a carrot. I don't think Kwiatkowski can win this if it comes down to the Col d'Eze shoot-out on current time gaps, but the finishing geography seems to suit him over the next couple of stages, and if he can organize a break he can win this race prior to the ITT showdown. His price is ridiculous, though, taking into account all those factors.
When Porte rides like that, fights like that, he shows he is on an improving form arc. Lately though, he seems to fail to back up for another climbing stage when he throws it down. Since there isn't a repeat of similar climbing tomorrow, only really the cat.3 some 8.5kms from finish, there is no question mark over him backing-up and he is therefore rightfully considered to be in the box-seat by the Books to win on GC. It looks increasingly likely that it will come down to the ITT on the Col, as some forecasters predicted prior to the start, and knowing who will win there can only be predicted by having on-the-ground information prior to the start -- witnessing who has a hop in their step, if you will.
Porte has won on the Col d'Eze before, in 2013, when he blasted up the gruelling 9.6km mountain sprint to secure his win on GC. That will be a significant advantage for him, although G is not out of it by an stretch, since team loyalties do not exist in the ITT, and you could tell it means a lot to both of them to beat the other in a fair shoot-out such as this. I might have enjoyed a nice green-screen if not for the Porte lay, however I'm still willing to stick with those bets on account of today's evidence. Essentially, the initial price discrepancy was wrong since there's not that much between them, Porte maybe is looking slightly better because of that desperate drive and hunger being shown, but G is looking for a chance to gain a big scalp and is right in the mix, but a bit behind, I think.
Obviously TCS lost the plot and burned Majka, but really to be fair he didn't look on TdF form, and he just wasn't going to work out, here. Kelderman was thoroughly disappointing, and Sepulveda was a bit of a miss.
Tomorrow's stage 5 is tailor-made for Gilbert and he has been quite active in the race, so expecting to make a play on him at the right odds.
Good luck, SP
Okay, plenty of things to evaluate from an -- as expected -- exciting stage of racing.Kwiatkowski didn't really show anything we haven't seen from him before, but I did get that sense of another leap in improvement in yet another aspect of his riding
I've got this down as a stage for Bling and takens 4/1 and also had a few quid on Kwiatowski at 16/1, he will be pretty motivated to get a few seconds here and is pretty quick in a finish if the real fast men aren't there.
I've got this down as a stage for Bling and takens 4/1 and also had a few quid on Kwiatowski at 16/1, he will be pretty motivated to get a few seconds here and is pretty quick in a finish if the real fast men aren't there.
Well done, MC. I suspect you got Gallopin out of the break?
In 2013, when Porte won this race, Gallopin rode the Col d'Eze stage in 36th place +1.56 down on Porte, who won the stage. After winning yesterday's stage in very tough conditions, it's a big ask to expect Gallopin to back-up with such a strong performance that he protects his .36+ lead in a discipline where he is not an expert and which is made tougher by effectively being a mountain sprint. I therefore believe that this race is still between Porte and G, and the price discrepancy suggests G is better value, although as I stated earlier Porte looks a little better. The only thing I would add is that Porte might require the impetus of being surrounded by his opposition, and riding solo in the ITT may cause him to feel a little flat in his present shape, however the advantage of having won here two years ago will be a significant advantage and on paper Porte is the winner.
I'm on G. SP
Well done, MC. I suspect you got Gallopin out of the break?In 2013, when Porte won this race, Gallopin rode the Col d'Eze stage in 36th place +1.56 down on Porte, who won the stage. After winning yesterday's stage in very tough conditions, it's a big
I put Gallopin on the night before. I've laid Porte for the outright at PN today. Looks like we all got the wrong Sky rider for T-A. Wonder if Sky can protect Poels today? Mental how strong they've been after their altitude training camp.
I put Gallopin on the night before. I've laid Porte for the outright at PN today. Looks like we all got the wrong Sky rider for T-A. Wonder if Sky can protect Poels today? Mental how strong they've been after their altitude training camp.
"I do not know what to expect. It will be difficult, but I do definitely my best. I know the Col d'Eze really well. I climbed on the at least 20 times in training this winter. It is not too hard, it is not just for climbers, " said Tony Gallopin.
Seems confident
"I do not know what to expect. It will be difficult, but I do definitely my best. I know the Col d'Eze really well. I climbed on the at least 20 times in training this winter. It is not too hard, it is not just for climbers, " said Tony Gallopin.Seem
I think with such strong data, the G scenario shouldn't have really been brought into it. Moreover, Porte won the National ITT title earlier this year, which whilst over a much longer distance, nevertheless showed he was still committed to the discipline, and this perhaps should have been more closely scrutinized.
In conclusion; the stage 4 finish comes to mind as showing Porte fighting hard to close down the gap to teammate G, when he was isolated. Without having to back up the next day on another climb, he could build on that great ride in terms of confidence. G was just never involved in the ITT, and has disappointed himself as for his captaincy chances at SKY. SP
PARS-NICE 2013 COL d'EZE STAGE WINNER: PORTE STAGE FINISH 36TH: GALLOPIN +1.56 2015 COL d'EZE STAGE WINNER: PORTE STAGE
not a good result for me but well done to Porte, still not convinced he can step up to be a player the Giro. My apologies to Warren Barguil for putting the kiss of death on him
not a good result for me but well done to Porte, still not convinced he can step up to be a player the Giro. My apologies to Warren Barguil for putting the kiss of death on him